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Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 11:06 am Post subject: Breeders Cup 2009
Just had a search and couldnt find a topic already started, so i thought i would post up my intial thoughts and the three races already priced up.
BCC - Could be a absolute cracker, with, STS, Zenyatta, RVW and Mastercraftsman. I am certain RVW and MCM, will turn up, Ballydoyle are desperate to win this race also RVW, will run in the QEII and has no other options left, whereas i reckon MCM, will go straight for this or drop into England for Champion stakes.
No play in this atm, but i will definitely discard Zenyatta and go for and English runner, MCM looks value at 14/1.
BCM - Now it looks definitely like Goldikova will turn up for this, but at 4/5 is no value on the day, never mind over a month away. The one that intrestes me is Delegator. I fully expect to win easily tomarrow, then turn up for the QEII. Were do Godolphin stand on sending runners for the Breeders Cup? I think the track at Santa Anita will suit him perfectly and will be the best horse Goldikova has faced all season. 10/1 looks very nice, considering MCM and RVW wont be turning up.
BCT- FAG and Conduit are very likely to turn up for this imo. I would favour Conduit due to the turning nature of the track and rate are turf horses over anything America have to offer by a fair margin.
Rip will stick at a mile now surely? I'm sure ballydoyle are desperate to win the classic, but you need the right horse with the right pedigree to get maximum reward for winning it. Galileo getting a top miler out of a strauinsky mare would be a big boost to him and would open the floodgates even more so for speedier mares to be used with him. After his sussex win i think it would be wise to leave him at a mile, he'd have a good chance against goldikova i think. _________________ Is ready to hibernate
I am sure RIP will go for the Classic similar to Henry last year. He gets 1m 2f as he proved in the Eclipse just that he came up against a superstar. He would have a chance at winning given the correct ride.
Goldikova even now at 4\5 is value. I will continue to double up on her with other short priced fancies like Delegator on sat. In my opinion I am just taking the price that she turns up as she will win.
Conduit should go close again in the Turf.
Dar Re Mi is another that will like the ground and have a good chance.
Well the consensus of opinion seems to be that Rip will go for the Classic. Shame because I think it would be more fruitful to keep him as a top miler, the way he won the Sussex was blistering.
I just think with his pedigree he'd be wasted on the American market, he wouldn't be popular much over there. In the US Coolmore has one stallion from the Sadler's Wells line, and he doesn't do too well.
Henrythenav was different completely because he is by Kingmambo.
I guess if he did win the Classic they could still stand him in Ireland. But I would go for the safer option and go for the mile, where it is a 2 horse race imo.
Not many people agree with me though. _________________ Is ready to hibernate
RVW - Classic, still think RVW will be suited by this and Johnny can get him home. _________________ 2009 BCT Winner - Conduit
2009 BCM Winner - Goldikova
2009 BCC Winner - Rip Van Winkle
I've read all of Aidan O'Briens quotes today and am baffled. In one he says Mastercraftsman doesn't stay 1m2f and in the next one he says he is being aimed at the Breeders Cup Classic along with RVW. _________________ Tricky Trickster - Grand National Winner 2010
I've read all of Aidan O'Briens quotes today and am baffled. In one he says Mastercraftsman doesn't stay 1m2f and in the next one he says he is being aimed at the Breeders Cup Classic along with RVW.
probably doesnt quite get the 10F that well and is prob something like a 9F horse and caught between trips.
However above makes sense to me as on the surface at santa anita its not really a tough 10F to get....not if Ravens Pass and Henry filled the first two spots last year as neither of them are 10F horses imo. Probably right up MCM street except hes not going to beat STS and would be hard pressed to beat Rip. Plus he could be over the top for the season looking at his last race and the campaign he had last year.
Now thinking this is time to get some bets down.
Certaintys:
BC Mile - Ditto Goldikova wins.
BCC - Rip unless sts shows then its tricky.
One to ponder:
BC Turf - Cavalryman looks a tasty price if he goes. Should be in top gear still after the arc.
I think septimus may go for the marathon judged on what was said on O'briens ATR interview. Massive fan of the horse since he ran in a trial for the derby a few years back. Think hes underated over the shorter trip though sure to go off a short price due to his owners if he does indeed run
I looked at the opposition that she's likely to be up against in the mile and it looks easier than last year. Banker material, after the Foret she's going to be a lot shorter than this price. _________________ Tricky Trickster - Grand National Winner 2010
Fillies cut from a different cloth. If there's any justice in racing we'll see Goldikova vs RVW over 1m. I'd be all but certain on Goldikova though, I think she could give RVW at least 7 lbs, but she wont have to. _________________ 2009 BCT Winner - Conduit
2009 BCM Winner - Goldikova
2009 BCC Winner - Rip Van Winkle
Fillies cut from a different cloth. If there's any justice in racing we'll see Goldikova vs RVW over 1m. I'd be all but certain on Goldikova though, I think she could give RVW at least 7 lbs, but she wont have to.
RVW and Mastercrftsman are going for the classic one of the reasons why her price looks good at the moment. _________________ Tricky Trickster - Grand National Winner 2010
Fillies cut from a different cloth. If there's any justice in racing we'll see Goldikova vs RVW over 1m. I'd be all but certain on Goldikova though, I think she could give RVW at least 7 lbs, but she wont have to.
RVW and Mastercrftsman are going for the classic one of the reasons why her price looks good at the moment.
We all know how Coolmore can make U-turns in there plans, I'd say it was in the balance which race they will aim RVW at.
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