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Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2008 9:03 am Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup Mile
david-uk wrote:
Goldikova is a steering job in this race. All she has to do is get the post fit and healthy and punters who have backed her will collect.
I have 2 pts at 5/1 & 1 pt at 4/1.
I hope you are right David, she would be a very profitable winner for me and i had to look several times at the price when she was 6/1, on all form she is hands down the mostly likely winner, only an about turn by Gosden would worry me... The other concern is how she will handle a downhill course on firm ground in high humidity/heat (120 degrees).
That would be my woory for Goldikova - she has a clear form chance but that has been on easier ground on more galloping tracks - a tight, turning mile on firm ground may not suit a horse who has often looked like 1m is a bare minimum (she may even be better at 10f) and she could get taken off her feet and not have the kind of tactical pace needed in this race.
I think the ground will be no problem, but we wont know about the downhill until she tries it as most of her winning has been done on flat tracks.
Is there two turns on this mile course, i think there are?
6/1 is a nice price by the way.
I donk think Gosden will change his mind, I reckon he thinks he has the best chance in that race of all the european challengers and he could be right.
Think Darjina is missing a good opportunity here, US Ranger is strictly an O'brien bet, but not without a smidgen of a chance i think, Goldikova Must take all the beating though. _________________ 2009 BCT Winner - Conduit
2009 BCM Winner - Goldikova
2009 BCC Winner - Rip Van Winkle
Goldikova backers will know their fate within 2-3f imo. If she has the early tactical pace to go with them early and hold a good position then she should win. If she struggles to go the early pace on the firm ground around the tight bends then she could be in all sorts of trouble. Best to play in running if you're thinking of backing her imo - watch those first couple of furongs and then decide
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