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Swagger · Posted: Fri Jan 02, 2009 1:57 pm Post subject: Foxy Bingo

14.10 Sandown

New Little Brick - Flattered to deceive early in his career and in retrospect, his overall form must be questioned. He ran a more encouraging race last time out and has dropped to a mark of 140. I'm still not convinced about him and think he will help make the market.
Out The Black - He has some decent form in the book but Richard Johnson is riding at Wincanton instead of Sandown and I fully expect Briery Fox to reverse Ascot form around with him on 7lbs better terms for a 3/4 lengths defeat. Nonetheless he is likely to attract EW punters.
Without A Doubt - Difficult horse to assess. He has strong course form with 3 places and a Win from 8 races. However, he has failed to win for over two years whilst running game races in defeat on several occasions. In addition he looks potentially well handicapped and he will have his EW supporters.
Thunder Rock - Ex-trained Sir Michael Stoute horse who failed to fulfil his early promise on the flat and hasn't really altered that view since switching codes. Although he remains something of an enigma, he doesn't have any chase form that appeals to me.
King Barry - He comes to the race in form and has won at Class 2 handicap level previously. However, he runs off a mark of 127 which he has previously struggled on, and although we have seen various 10 yr olds improve out of sight of late, I will go with the previous evidence that he will struggle tomorrow running off 127.
Briery Fox - Similar profile to Without A Doubt in the sense that he looks like he is running off an attractive handicap mark tomorrow (127) bu he has struggled to find the Winners Enclosure of late. In fact, he has also failed to win for over 2 years, although he has run some huge races in between, most notably the following performance at Sandown;
03 Feb 2007
3:50 SANDOWN
Agfa Diamond Handicap Chase
(Class 2) (0-145, 5yo+) (3m110y) 3m½f Good To Soft 18 fences 4 omitted
£25,052.00, £7,400.00, £3,700.00, £1,852.00, £924.00, £464.00
HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR RATED
1 Rambling Minster SP 15/2 [Tipped by Colin Russell]
Minster Son - Howcleuch (Buckskin) 9 10-5 K G Reveley
Richard McGrath 124 105 137 —
Held up well in rear, good progress from 15th, 3rd and ridden by-passing 3 out, led 100yds before last, headed soon after, rallied to lead flat
2 ¾ Kelami (FR) SP 25/1
Lute Antique (FR) - Voltige De Nievre (FR) (Brezzo) 9 11-3 F Doumen
A Duchene (3) 139 119 149 —
Mistake 1st, held up well in rear, still plenty to do after 17th (2 out), good progress from 3f out to lead after last, headed and not quicken flat
3 6 Briery Fox (IRE) SP 40/1
Phardante (FR) - Briery Gale (Strong Gale) 9 11-1 H D Daly
Mark Bradburne 134 109 139 —
Settled towards rear, steady progress into midfield 17th, ridden and effort by-passing 2 out, upsides last, faded flat
4 ¾ Tikram SP 11/2F
Lycius (USA) - Black Fighter (USA) (Secretariat) 10 11-5 A King
A P McCoy 138 113 143 —
Held up just behind leaders, still well there when blundered 16th (3 out), effort again by-passing 2 out, weakened last
5 5 Lord Killeshanra (IRE) SP 25/1
Mister Lord (USA) - Killeshandra Lass (IRE) (King's Ride) 8 11-0 C L Tizzard
Joe Tizzard 133 104 132 —
Settled in midfield, progress 14th, mistake 16th (3 out), headway after next, not much room by-passing 2 out, no impression after
6 3 Nitrat (FR) SP 66/1
Brier Creek (USA) - Evane (FR) (Lute Antique) 6 10-12 b F Doumen
Jacques Ricou 131 99 128 —
Chased leaders, under pressure after 17th (last on far side), beaten soon after and eased by-passing 2 out
7 1¼ Yardbird (IRE) SP 7/1
Moonax (IRE) - Princess Lizzie (IRE) (Homo Sapien) 8 10-11 A King
Wayne Hutchinson 130 97 124 —
Chased leading trio to 11th, steadily lost place from 15th, well beaten after 17th
8 1 Fork Lightning (IRE) SP 12/1
Roselier (FR) - Park Breeze (IRE) (Strong Gale) 11 11-0 A King
Robert Thornton 133 99 127 —
Led at good clip, ridden and still going strongly enough on long run after 17th, headed and weakened rapidly 100yds before last
9 6 Hoo La Baloo (FR) SP 20/1
Unfuwain (USA) - Via Saleria (IRE) (Arazi) 6 11-9 P F Nicholls
Liam Heard (3) 145 106 134 —
Held up well in rear, steady progress into midfield 15th, no impression after 17th, weakened
10 3½ Supreme Catch (IRE) SP 16/1
Supreme Leader - Lucky Trout (Beau Charmeur) 10 10-3 Miss H C Knight
Timmy Murphy 122 80 113 —
Always toiling in rear, tailed off from 14th
11 1 Flintoff (USA) SP 7/1
Diesis - Sahibah (USA) (Deputy Minister) 6 10-13 b Miss Venetia Williams
P C O'Neill (3) 135 93 118 —
Mistakes 1st and 2nd and reminders, well in rear, rapid progress 9th, chased leader 11th until weakened by-passing 2 out
12 7 Florida Dream (IRE) SP 12/1
Florida Son - Ice Pearl (Flatbush) 8 9-12 b N A Twiston-Davies
David England (5) 122 74 98 —
Chased leader to 11th, losing place when blundered 17th, tailed off
13 17 Iron Man (FR) SP 16/1
Video Rock (FR) - Key Figure (FR) (Fast Topaze) 6 11-0 p P Bowen
T J O'Brien 133 70 92 —
Settled in rear, in touch at back of group when hampered 15th, not recover, tailed off
F Turthen (FR) SP 9/1
Turgeon (USA) - Majathen (FR) (Carmarthen) 6 10-13 P F Nicholls
R Walsh 132 — 0 —
In touch in midfield, still chasing leading group when fell 15th
PU Pass Me By SP 14/1
Balnibarbi - Errol Emerald (Dom Racine) 8 10-7 b1 Miss Suzy Smith
Colin Bolger (3) 129 — 0 —
Prominent, lost place after 9th, soon struggling in rear, tailed off 15th, pulled up before last
F Napolitain (FR) SP 33/1
Ajdayt (USA) - Domage II (FR) (Cyborg) 6 11-1 P F Nicholls
Paddy Merrigan (3) 137 — 0 —
Tracked leaders, in touch on outer when fell 15th
PU Latimer's Place SP 14/1
Teenoso (USA) - Pennethorne Place (Deep Run) 11 10-13 N J Gifford
S E Durack 132 — 0 —
In touch, mistakes 10th and next and dropped to rear, tailed off 15th, pulled up before last
PU Kasthari (IRE) SP 33/1
Vettori (IRE) - Karliyka (IRE) (Last Tycoon) 8 11-0 J Howard Johnson
Mick Fitzgerald 133 — 0 —
In touch until weakened rapidly after 9th, tailed off last when pulled up before 13th
18 ran TIME 6m 15.50s (slow by 12.50s) Total SP 124%
RP - Briery Fox has run a stormer, clearly enjoying the better underfoot conditions here. He crept into the race through the last mile and finished off strongly back up to this trip in a race where there was no hiding place. He had looked plenty high enough in the ratings, but given good ground again, he looks to have a big handicap in him.

Briery Fox is half a stone lower in the handicap tomorrow than the aforementioned run listed above.
Although an older horse, Briery Fox has showed himself to be in good form with his commendable 3rd placed finish behind the classy Kandjar D'allier in his first run this season. His last run has to be seen as a gross disappointment when unplaced at Newbury. I think a combination of a slow pace on a flat track over an inadequate trip contributed to his poor showing. Briery Fox appears to show his best form when he runs on good ground with a decent pace on a flat track that has an uphill finish - he tends to stay and gallop on at one pace without quickening clear. He should have those conditions tomorrow and Sandown should play to his strengths and not expose his lack of quickening clear that a flat speedy track like Aintree and Newbury have done in the past. Henry Daly could have also run Martha's Kinsman who looked to hold strong claims so the fact that he relys upon Briery Fox could be viewed as a tip in itself. He has had 2 placed efforts from 2 runners in recent years and Briery Fox looks to hold strong EW claims for him again.
Cresswell Willow - A horse who has won slowly run races in lower grades doesn't appeal to me unless he proves otherwise first. For that reason I am willing to take him on.
Presenting Express - On paper he looks potentially the best handicapped horse in the race. However, he has had his injury problems over the past year and it didn't look like he made the most appealing run back last time out having been pulled up in a weak race. To be fair, that was his run back from a long lay off and he should be expected to perform better in this race. Overall I would rather go with a horse that I have less doubts about.
Antonius Caesar - He has been found wanting in his previous attempts in Class 2 company and have to go with the percentage call and take him on until he proves himself in that grade.
Zacharova - I always take on these type of horses, stepping up from lower classes having looked exposed in that field. He may step up but I adopt the percentage call and take them on.

Recommended Bet: BRIERY FOX EW @ 9/1 with Bet365 - 2.10 Sandown
Danger: WITHOUT A DOUBT

Regards and good luck to all.

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