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Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2009 11:24 am Post subject: Golden Jubilee Stakes (G1 6F Sat)
Ive just been going though this and as far as i see it both JJ The Jet Plane and Sacred Kingdom are 5-8 Llbs possibley a few more ahead of the rest of the field so i find it very hard to imagine anything else managing to beat both of them. Scenic Blast would be added to these 3 if he turns up but it is practically certain he wont. I dont make much between the 3.
If you take them out of the equation the ones id be interested in would be:
Takeover Target, Cannonball, Kings Apostle, Kingsgate Native, Fleeting Spirit, Art Connisier and Bushranger.
3 Year Olds have got a pretty dire record in this though so you could throw
out both of Art Connisier and Bushranger who i would expect to give a good account but at this stage of his carrear below what is required to win.
Fillys also have a dire record. Over 20 years since one won. Also 5F is probably Fleeting Spirits best trip. Can she back up another good run so soon? Would she be good enough anyways? possible.
Takeover Target at best would have his work cut out against the other 2 foreign big boys and i doubt he is at his best anymore after seeing his last couple of runs.
Cannonball could be a lurker but he is nowhere near the best of the US sprinters and they cant compete at the same level as JJ and Scenic so unlikely winner imo.
The two Kings would be the likeliest dangers to the foreign raiders imo. Fleeting not completely ruled out.
Still i think JJ and Sacred as said are at least 5 llbs clear so it is hard to imagine one of them not winning even with poor draws. Both should also make the frame so it makes it hard to find a value ew bet from the remainer of the field.
Im slightly leaning towards Sacred Kingdom.
Boards thoughts ? Im trying to decide if i should steam into one or both of the market leaders each way at the current prices as my main bets of the week
Without having a real dig in to the route of this race I like both Takeover Target and Kingsgate Native at the current prices, front 2 are too short for me. _________________ 2009 BCT Winner - Conduit
2009 BCM Winner - Goldikova
2009 BCC Winner - Rip Van Winkle
Without having a real dig in to the route of this race I like both Takeover Target and Kingsgate Native at the current prices, front 2 are too short for me.
On a quick glance the front two do look very short. Theyve actually shortened up by a point or so since i tapped out my post and i havnt made any bets yet I was hoping both would be at least something around the 4/1 mark possibly a little higher. I might struggle to get involved myself at less than the current 3/1 as i like to back ew just in case.
3/1 for these will most likely look huge though. Its likely well see the same kind of outcome as in the kings stand where our best finisher is still a good few lengths behind these boys. Theyre a class above. Its hard to see both out the 3 and it doesnt leave much ew value on anything else. Put this race in the Far East/Australia and Sacred Kingdom would probably be sent off by the locals as a 1/2 shot and then win like one.
You can find Sacred Kingdoms last race in the krisflyer sprint here:
Anyone got any idea of likely starting prices for this race ?
Im just wondering if the Hong Kong betting syndicates are going to have players over here smashing into Sacred Kingdom as they will certainly see his price as huge value and i see there is fair whack starting to que up to back him on betfair in both the win and place markets. If this is the case im not sure how much of a dent it could make into what is gambled by the british public and what horses they go for on track with bookies,tote and betfair alike.
Ive missed the kind of prices i wanted on this horse now after having to wait for betting money to be recycled
I'm not normally one to bet on very long odds but I think that 100/1 is value for Intrepid Jack. Hasn't shown the best of form recently I grant you but having said that, He finished 2nd(admittedly a distant second) to worthy favourite J J The Jet Plane so he is showing signs of improving and he can be quite handy at his best.
I've had a small each way at 100's.
_________________ You're born with nothing, and better off that way,
As soon as you got something they send someone to try & take it away!
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I was hoping both would be at least something around the 4/1 mark possibly a little higher. I might struggle to get involved myself at less than the current 3/1 as i like to back ew just in case.