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Grand National 2009
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theGoingStick
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 5:47 pm    Post subject: Grand National 2009 Reply with quote

Well the carrying under 11 stone stat has been upheld for another year. Anyone got one to follow for next year ?

Can't see Hedgehunter coming back at 13 to carry top weight, could be Denman, second thoughts probably not  

So the obvious question is, how much is Hear The Echo going to be punished for his Irish National win ?
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RightJudgeIam
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 5:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

One I noted from the meeting was the Twiston Davies trained Irish Raptor that ran second in the Topham. He ran off 131 there so will need to climb 7lb or so to be sure to get in next year. Has already won over 3 mile 2.5 furlong and will be 10 year old in 2009. Jumped like a buck. I checked his pedigree against what Roselier has posted and he looks a certain stayer.

Will be in my note book til the weights come out
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 6:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

butlers cabin maybe if ap can keep him straight at beechers 2nd time round?
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 6:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

butlers cabin looked the only horse travelling well on second circuit to come down, so he must be one to look at next year, comply or die won it very well, so lets see how much the handicapper hammers him for that
he is still just 9
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lochsong
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 7:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RightJudgeIam wrote:
One I noted from the meeting was the Twiston Davies trained Irish Raptor that ran second in the Topham. He ran off 131 there so will need to climb 7lb or so to be sure to get in next year. Has already won over 3 mile 2.5 furlong and will be 10 year old in 2009. Jumped like a buck. I checked his pedigree against what Roselier has posted and he looks a certain stayer.

Will be in my note book til the weights come out


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 9:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Battlecry is the one I want for 2010 but as for next year, from todays race I too was impressed with how Butlers Cabin was going when he came down but I can't get away from how good Hear The Echo looked as he out-stayed everything in the Irish National 2 weks ago.

Surely he's now on a mark that'll see him qualify for the race next season and he'll be put away and trained for it.
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 9:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Binge wrote:
I too was impressed with how Butlers Cabin was going when he came down


Hmmm...

Just reminds me so much of McCoy on board Clan Royal back in 2005..

No doubt that was Clan Royals chance and today maybe it was Butlers Cabin`s as well.......
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YAIYAM
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 9:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hear the Echo has been given a rating of 145 which would have seen him carry 11-01 today but at least they have something to work with as he would probably only have a hurdle rating of <120 so can see him have at least 1 run either in a hcp or an open hurdle race + 2 or 3 other runs to get 4 to 5 pounds knocked off that 145 by the time next years national comes round, it may even be 2010 if they can keep him to around 140
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Rochesterlad
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 9:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yaiyam

At a very rough guess what weight would you expect King Johns Castle to carry in this next year?
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YAIYAM
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 10:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rochesterlad wrote:
Yaiyam

At a very rough guess what weight would you expect King Johns Castle to carry in this next year?


I would think Hedgehunter would not be running but there is still going to be something rated between 155 to 160 so i would say KJC will carry either 11-04 or 11-05.
I would not back any horse that has run well in the National for future Nationals as these days a horse only gets one chance to win it and today was KJC's
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 10:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rochesterlad wrote:
Binge wrote:
I too was impressed with how Butlers Cabin was going when he came down


Hmmm...

Just reminds me so much of McCoy on board Clan Royal back in 2005..

No doubt that was Clan Royals chance and today maybe it was Butlers Cabin`s as well.......


I differ from you there Roch. I have always said Clan Royal would never have got home in 2005, he was running with the choke full out for some way before the most unlucky incident you could ever have nightmares about. BC today, I thought was tucked in nicely with the leading pack and hadn't been asked any questions when coming down.

Whereas Bewleys Berry came to grief at the same point last year the consensus on him is he wouldn't stay the trip as he proved today having jumped round, but we know BC has a 4 mile victory in him as did todays winner.

I didn't fancy BC today at all after the season he's had, I thought it looked like they'd bottomed him last spring. However I think that was a wrong assessment, but he fell over a mile and half from home so we won't know.
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theGoingStick
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 10:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

With Hear the Echo and Butlers Cabin how much can they fiddle about with their handicap mark. Is it possible they could drop below the magical 11st mark or is that not likely ?
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 10:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Binge wrote:

I differ from you there Roch. I have always said Clan Royal would never have got home in 2005, he was running with the choke full out for some way before the most unlucky incident you could ever have nightmares about.


Hi Binge

This is a topic that will be talked about for many years to come...

Would he of lasted home?

We will never know!!...But im conviced he would of been involved in the finish.
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theGoingStick
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 10:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rochesterlad wrote:
We will never know!!...But im conviced he would of been involved in the finish.


I personally think he would of and I'm pretty sure AP thought he would of.

If AP stayed with David Johnson he might of won the national today    I don't see what McManus has that will challenge for the national next year that is unexposed enough, but I guess time will tell.
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YAIYAM
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 10:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rochesterlad wrote:
Binge wrote:

I differ from you there Roch. I have always said Clan Royal would never have got home in 2005, he was running with the choke full out for some way before the most unlucky incident you could ever have nightmares about.


Hi Binge

This is a topic that will be talked about for many years to come...

Would he of lasted home?

We will never know!!...But im conviced he would of been involved in the finish.


He lasted home the year after so there is no reason he would not have lasted home that year although on the weights he would not have beat Hedgehunter even by getting home as he was much better off that 2nd time and still did not beat him



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