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I haven't had anything like a proper look through this race but stand by what i believed at the start of the season in that ARDAGHEY is capable of running to a mark of 155+ so off 142 would interest me. Admittedly this may not be the race, as he does seem to favour Cheltenham. It's not beyond the realms of possiblity of ABRAGANTE pulling off a similar coup like Celestial Gold as well.
I'd been keen on Always Waining for this since his wins either side of the season cross-over back in April/May. He had come out and run two encouraging preps in Sept and Oct however he ran very disappointingly yesterday over hurdles at Chepstow never getting into the race. He's 33/1 for the Hennessy and I still think he's ahead of the handicapper over fences but probably only a few pounds and therefore there is bound to be something better handicapped in the entries.
The horse I thought may have been plotted for this from the Pipe stable is Not Left Yet. A comfortable winner on his first start over fences at Carlisle, he then went the Celestial Gold route by running in the 4 miler at the Festival, still bang in contention when being one of a few to come down two out. Only rated 129 he would struggle to get in the race but if he did line up then he could be anything (25/1.) However it would appear that Abragante is the unexposed chaser from that Yard that punters and bookies believe is the plot horse for the PP & Hennessy. If that's the case Not Left Yet will pop up somewhere this season in a valuable handicap chase I'm sure of that. _________________ 2008 Ryder Cup Competition - WINNER
When out walking brother don't you forget,
It ain't often that you'll ever find a friend.
Unexposed, progressive, second season chasers have a great record in this so they're the ones to look out for. 3m2f around Newbury at a good gallop can be a test of fencing and stamina so you want something that jumps and stays as well. A few on my shortlist are:
According To John
Dream Alliance
Mr Pointment
Offshore Account
Snowy Morning
Denman will probably not only have top weight but be conceding a fair whack to all the others. If he goes there will be some very decent animals carrying 20lbs less. It will be a big ask.
I'm amazed Denman is being considered for this. With any other trainer, this race wouldn't even get a second look but I suppose it shows how difficult it is for Nicholls to find races so that his stars aren't against each other.
YY - I predict your strong fancy is either Offshore Account, Mossbank or Dream Alliance, i know you are a stat man
I know the important stats for the Henessey but not really looked at them this year but the horse i like at the moment is one of the 3 you have mentioned but as with all handicaps you need to see the weights first, i think Nov 15th is Henessey weights day _________________ Forest are Treemendous
Denman is 9-2 favourite for the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup following the publication of the weights for the Newbury showpiece.
Totesport and William Hill have last season's Royal & Sun Alliance Chase winner heading the market for the prestigious handicap chase on December 1.
Coral have the Paul Nicholls-trained gelding sharing favouritism on 5-1 with the David Pipe-trained Abragante.
Denman is joint third top weight on 10st 8lb behind his stablemate Kauto Star on 11st 12lb, with Exotic Dancer on 11st 5lb.
Totesport spokesman Damian Walker said: "If Denman can win the Hennessy off a mark of 161, then clearly he is bang in the picture for the totesport Gold Cup and will be a massive threat to Kauto Star at Cheltenham next March.
"Although it is a big ask to carry such a big weight in a top-class handicap like the Hennessy, Trabolgan did it two years ago and Denman is one of the most exciting second season chasers we have seen for some time, hence the 9-2 quote.
"Our 11-2 second favourite Abragante is still potentially well treated over fences, given that he won off a higher mark over hurdles at Haydock last season and he will be getting stacks of weight from Denman." _________________ Forest are Treemendous
snowy morning a horse i am keen to follow this season and has a profile to run a big race here _________________ Geordie_R
"A should of known there mum was buying banana's"
snowy morning a horse i am keen to follow this season and has a profile to run a big race here
I agree with you GR but not sure that he will go for this as the trainer stated that "handicaps are rulled out" (although trainers have changed their minds before!!) he needs a trip and softish ground to be seen at his best. If he did run he would get 18lb from Denman for a 10 length defeat.
Mossbank (a horse my brother rates) is another that could go well but as YY says its worth waiting for the weights to come out.
I'd be surprised if NEW ALCO didn't win this. So impressive at Carslisle over a trip too short. Will improve no end for the extra yardage and he's always at his best at this time of year. Will get in with just over 10st. And he is very consistent. I think he will win impressively.
Denman is top class but he surely won't be at his best at this stage of the season which he'll need to be off 161 with 11-12. Abragante is a threat but is not the easiest and with no Murphy and a rise in the weights i'd much rather have NA at a bigger price. NA is still only 6 so has any amount of improvement in him.
I agree that it may be a tough ask for Denman to carry 11st 12 to win this but it has been mentioned on another thread about Mr Pointment's RPR rating of 152 before yesterday's race and his BHB rating was 146.
The new stats may make Denman's current ratings of 165 (RPR) and 161 (BHB) actually look very leninet after the way Denman thrashed Mr Pointment at Newbury earlier this year, even given the latter's undoubted improvement from switching stables.
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