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Posted: Wed Aug 08, 2007 8:41 pm Post subject: Juddmonte 2007
What are everyones thoughts on this as the next big UK Group 1
I have had a bet on notnowcato at 5.2 which on the face of it seems short
But I take the view that either George or authorised or both won't turn up.
In addition Authorised may fit the bill of a derby winner not winning again and 12f may be his best distance anyway.
George may be better at shorter and needs to settle.
Asiatic boy needs to prove himself on grass
And besides all of the above Notnowcato is proven over the distance is a genuine group 1 horse who in true Stoute style may still be improving whilst other are going backwards.
ANy views? _________________ There are two certainties in life Death and Taxes they no longer tax betting so there may be a god
Grand National 2009 Comp Winner
September October 2009 NAP Comp Winner
As you have already made your wager I wish you the best of luck. I note however that they have priced up Authorized shorter than NNC again for this 10f trip. Here's a quote from PCH in the SL
He's a mile-and-half horse and it's mile-and-quarter race and it's going to be tough again - York will be testing I think," he told At The Races.
Eh?
The Eclipse left a lot of unanswered questions - Authorised won his race on the far side beating his peers while NNC won THE race travelling further on 'better' ground nearside.
I doubt conditions will be the same for the Juddemonte so make of it what you will.
LS _________________ Does killing time damage eternity?
I think that's a decent bet on Notnowcato- what's not to like about a proven horse with C&D form?
Can't be having Authorized that short over trip (and possibly ground) that the trainer acknowledges is not suitable.
I did like the look of Asiatic Boy at 8s, as I thought he did pretty well at Goodwood, given all the new challenges he was facing at once. Have to say the Spencer booking puts me off though.
If the field cuts up a bit, an e-w punt on Maraahel might work out ok- he's never been out of the places at York. _________________ Known as the catch of the camp.
Not sure if GW will line up or not as I still think he is better over shoter and as mentioned Authorised is better over futther with some cut in the ground. NNC is well underated and 5.2 is a good price mate. Asiatic boy still has it to prove over here IMO so 8/1 is a fair price.
george were closing with every stride in the eclipse, the ground is likely to be much more in his favour in the juddmonte, he certainly looks the one to be on in this at the prices. _________________ 2009 BCT Winner - Conduit
2009 BCM Winner - Goldikova
2009 BCC Winner - Rip Van Winkle
There's no actual proof yet that Authorized is better at 12 furlongs than 10 - it simply depends on how and where (and against whom). The Eclipse (as Falbrav has often stated) is a miler's race, and the Juddmonte has often been won by proper middle distance horses because it's a galloping track, the pace even and usually quick. I suppose I'll go to my grave under-rating Notnowcato, but it's depressing that already some are saying Authorized "is another Motivator" - not simply lazy journalese, but judging a horse well before it's undergone a proper racing career is useless in any kind of debate. And George seems to hit a flat spot with two furlongs to go, no matter what the distance is, so he's always finishing like he needs further. I still think he's a miler.
Still, it's good to be talking about top-class racehorses in training. The pity is we won't be talking about Authorized racing as a four-year-old.
Ruinart, I guess people are starting to compare him with Motivator as so far he's another son of Montjeu who won the Derby in scintillating fashion, and has since run a decent race against a 10F specialist, and is being tried at 10 again solely for stud value purposes. Motivator's two defeats to Oratorio were no disgrace IMO, and had he been tried over 12 before the Arc I'm sure he would have won again. Slightly unfair to label him a duff Derby winner, I think.
York is a fair track, so hopefully there'll be a true-run race with no excuses. _________________ Known as the catch of the camp.
Couldn't agree more, Tags, the ill-informed slagging Motivator got was partly based on the over-reaction to the way he won the Derby, but also I think there was some resentment about the slightly-untoffish ownership behaving like they were on holiday in Torremelinos thinking they'd struck it rich because of the stud fees…
However, both sets of connections deserve credit for aiming for the Eclipse, not just because it enhances stud value, but because it's a better test of a Derby winner than just turning up at the Curragh to do it all over again. If the ground had been less firm and the pacemaker had done a better job, Motivator would have won and been hailed as a superstar (equally wrongly). But he ran up to form in top-class races throughout the season and remains one of the best Derby winners in recent years. Still think he should have gone on at 4.
The other thing they have in common, incidentally, is Racing Post Trophy (G1) winners at 2.
This might turn into a good debate. I'm going to ramble for a bit.
Best Maite may be the modern day equivalent of a superstar that we see for a long long time. The more I look at it, his 3 GC wins look more and more of an astonishing feat.
The demise of flat stars training on after 3yo stage and more disappointingly going to stud after one good classic win because they stubbed their toe or something is depressing. And the need for speed that they chase is admirable but wholey unsatisfactory.
Due to this trend and breeding patterns will we ever see a triple crown winner again? I think not and the sport is the poorer for it.
What is this obsession with a mile and two - tempremental great miler trying to extend to it and great derby winner trying to drop back to it.
Is 10f some sort of magic distance? That means all progeny will be good at any distance?
What we need is a triple crown winner - 8f, 12f, 14f nuff said.
And what of training techniques in the days of Sea Buiscut et al - I reckon there was more of a level playing field back then. No swimming pools or pace setters and all this latter day malarky........and everyone was willing to run their horses in the same race so the public could see a real spectacle - the best against the best.
Back then I doubt there were any 'horse whisperers' it was just a case of go on my son and win the race - nothing tactical about it.
OK I'm done now.
LS _________________ Does killing time damage eternity?
Last edited by lochsong on Thu Aug 09, 2007 10:00 pm; edited 1 time in total
The golden egg is speed now I think LS, not 5f blistering the turf stuff but milers that can step up to 10 and 12, not middle distances that can step back. All wrong and bad for the breed in my opinion but there it is. Maybe fashion will swing the other way like hemlines and in twenty years it will all be about 14f on poly
I am not sure I dare stick my head too high over the Juddmonte parapet, but I cannot resist a mild observation or two. One of the best races of the last few years was the 2005 renewal where two horses trained overseas (Electrocutionist and Zenno Rob Roy) upheld international form lines. Asiatic Boy has a dodgy formline with Notnowcato through Archipenko but not too much can be read into it as Archipenko was ridden as a pacemaker in very certainly the Eclipse and very likely the Sussex. I thought I may have an even more convoluted formline that involves Jeremy, Take A Bow, Mashaahed and Notnowcato but I have now lost it (the plot). I will return to it with a clearer head another day.
If Georgie Porgie can't win it, then I would like international racing to step up to the plate and let's have the Asiatic Boy improving for the extra furlongs and his run at Goodwood. _________________ Greet people with four kisses - one for each cheek... Duke Ellington
Frankly, it wouldn't surprise me if Notnowcato went on to win the Juddmonte and Champion through virtues illuminated by the erstwhile 'Falbrav' and be crowned an elder champion. The grin on Stoute's face would be ear to ear.
LS _________________ Does killing time damage eternity?
Lochsong, I think there was far, far more dodgy racing going on in the past, so I wouldn't get too misty-eyed about it!
Group One racing now has got little to do with what we'd all like it to be, so the HRA et al are going to promote it more and more as something that's built in to British heritage (quite rightly, too). We can still celebrate the little guy doing well, there's still the romance to be enjoyed (and utilised to advertise the sport). However, it's unlikely to be at the highest level, even in jump racing now.
Pity about Sir Percy - very good horse, bought for not much, owned by small-timers (albeit quite decently well-off!). He seemed ideally suited to the Juddmonte trip.
And George seems to hit a flat spot with two furlongs to go, no matter what the distance is, so he's always finishing like he needs further. I still think he's a miler.
Every race? The only time I recall him hitting a 'flat spot' was in the Queen Anne and that was certainly understandable..
Like you, I'm not convinced he will stay 10 1/2 furlongs, but I was puzzled by that comment..
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(the plot). I will return to it with a clearer head another day.
