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Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 11:22 pm Post subject: Jumpers for Goalposts: NH Season 2008-9
With the Arc meeting yesterday the Flat season, at least in Europe, draws to a close. Champions Day and the Racing Post Trophy remain and many will be thinking about the Breeders Cup, Melbourne, Hong Kong and Japan.
However, my thoughts now turn towards the National Hunt season so I thought I would share some of my work, thoughts and bets in the hope you may find it interesting over the coming months. It's quite a useful exercise for me too as it helps me clarify my thoughts and methods.
Many racing fans believe the season really gets going at the Charlie Hall Chase Meeting at Wetherby quickly followed by Hennessey Day at Newbury. Of course, the whole focus of the season, whether we like it or not, is the Cheltenham Festival and clues may well be found in those early season meetings.
The main thrust of this column will be towards the Festival, but will also take in other meetings along the way, and I want to make it clear from the start that I am making the assumption that the going at Cheltenham will be good or certainly no softer than good to soft.
Anyway, in the last few weeks I have been discussing and reviewing the Gold Cup and contemplating the possible outcomes. Now, at the mention of this race, many thoughts will turn immediately to the 2008 winner Denman. He has many fans and rightly so; unbeaten over fences, he brutalises the opposition and if in the same form next time round is going to be incredibly hard to beat, yet he remains capable of even better form than he has shown so far. He is best priced 13/8 at the moment. He had a well documented health scare a while ago and now misses the start of the season. He will be set the task of winning the Gold Cup without having run before Christmas and he could be up to it.
I must admit, when I first started going through this race, I was imagining that I would find out that the only sensible bet in the race was to back Kauto Star; winner of 8 Grade 1 chases, including a Gold Cup, two King Georges and Tingle Creeks and sure to have another successful season. I always spend plenty of time looking at the pattern of races, the performances and ratings associated with them and, having done this with Kauto, a picture emerged. It's pretty difficult to explain exactly what I mean (as there's all kinds of background info, comments in running and so on in my head which I cannot express) but I'll have ago.
Following his seasonal debut, Kauto went to Haydock for the Betfair Chase where he produced a monstrous and game effort, repelling Exotic Dancer after being in front from a long way out and running on really gamely. The ratings for this effort were through the roof and after I genuinely believed he was capable of even better form than this. He went to the King George and produced another stunning display bounding 11 lengths clear with the jockey waving at the crowd from half way up the run in. He looked all set to step forward and defend his crown in style.
However, in three subsequent events he didn't get within 7lbs of the massive efforts at Haydock and Kempton, never travelled or jumped with the elan we had seen (although he was still game) and I now believe those two runs represent the peak of his performance and that, having produced them before January, he wasn't able to reproduce them later. In effect, he knocked the stuffing out of himself. There is now a clear doubt that he will ever reach those heights, certainly in a Cheltenham Gold Cup, again. Despite the trainers' assurances that he has blossomed and is really well at the moment, the best price 4/1 makes absolutely no appeal whatsoever at this stage.
I then decided to look at the top novices from last season to see whether there is a potential challenger from that field. Normally you would expect the Royal and Sun Alliance Chase to throw up a challenger or two. This years winner Albertas' Run looks to have plenty to find from a mark of 155 to compete with Kauto and Denman and could not be countenanced with any degree of confidence. He has yet to produce a top class Topspeed rating (which virtually all champions do) and his defeat of Roll Along looks well short of the required standard.
I am a big fan of Tidal Bay who proved himself by far the best 2 mile novice last year and produced top performances and ratings in winning both at Cheltenham and Aintree. However, he has never looked a stayer and the trainer has already stated that he is 'an ideal type for the Ryan Air Chase'. He is an unlikely starter in the Gold Cup and can't be backed for that reason alone.
The Irish challenge looks pathetically weak with their main hopes being Glencove Marina, Mossbank, Snowy Morning and War of Attrition. None of these look good enough on what they've done so far and need to be watched rather than backed.
There is one horse in the market who stands out as having the requisite level of form, the potential to improve and will definitely be targetted at the race and that is the John Hales' owned, Paul Nicholls trained Neptune Collonges who ran third in this years' Gold Cup when only a seven year old. He also ran in the race in 2007 as a 6 year old and has only had 15 chases lifetime, winning 9 and being placed on 3 other occasions. He produced his lifetime best form in the Gold Cup, reproduced the effort later at Punchestown when winning and can be regarded as having an improving profile. The only times he has failed to make the frame in a chase were when he unseated his rider as a 4yo, fell in the Letherby and Christopher as a 6yo and in the 2007 Gold Cup.
Well, it is almost certain he will start his campaign in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby, as he has done before, and should he win very well there his odds for the Gold Cup would almost certainly shorten. William Hills go a standout 10/1 for the Gold Cup and I reckon that price is well worth taking now and it is worth backing him each way too as he looks a very strong contender for a place at least come March and should anything happen to his two stable mates he would be favourite.
First recommended Bet
Cheltenham Gold Cup 2009
Back Neptune Collonges 3 points win 2 points place @ 10/1 William Hills
Now, I am really looking forward to the Charlie Hall and hoping for a smooth victory to set the horse up for a good season.
More to follow as and when the thoughts occur to me, until then cheers
KAUTO STAR will bid to regain his Cheltenham Gold Cup crown from stablemate Denman as a fresh horse, with trainer Paul Nicholls planning to send him straight to the Festival after a run over Christmas.
Clive Smith's eight-year-old has a bid for a third win in the King George VI Chase on Boxing Day on the agenda, after which he will be saved for the Totesport-sponsored Gold Cup on March 13.
Kauto Star took in the Aon Chase at Newbury in February en route to his success in the Gold Cup in 2007 and this year he landed the First Commercial Ascot Chase at Ascot in February before following home his stablemate at the Festival.
Nicholls said: "He looks fantastic and Ithink he is as good as ever. He took time to find his form last year but this year Clifford (Baker, head groom) has been astonished by the way he has been working.
"If the ground and track are right then he will start off at Down Royal on November 1,and if he misses that then he will go straight to the Betfair Chase at Haydock later that month.
"He then has four or five weeks to the King George and we will then keep him fresh and go straight to Cheltenham."
Neptune Collonges completed a famous one-two-three in the Gold Cup for Nicholls last spring, and he will bid to follow in Denman's footsteps by winning the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas.
"He was probably the most improved horse in training last year and I hope he can keepimproving," said Nicholls.
"He is always better after Christmas so will start off in the Lexus Chase, have one more before the Gold Cup and then go to Punchestown to try and win the Gold Cup there for the third year."
I certainly agree that going to straight to the Gold Cup will suit Kauto and I thought that would have been better this.
I also believe Neptune can continue to improve as he has in the previous two seasons. He will be eight years old in the 2009 Gold Cup and should be at the peak of his powers. _________________ RJI
Racing returns to Cheltenham today and I'm sure many of you are looking forward to it as much as me.
If you will indulge me again, as I try to crystalise the thoughts I've had this week into some kind of coherent explanation, then I hope you will find at least that you enjoy watching this race:
4:05 IG Index Handicap Chase (for The Studd Challenge Cup) (Class 2) (4yo+,0-150) £18,786.00 3m110y GOOD 17 declared
This is a fairly decent handicap chase and features some old favourites like Fundamentalist, Copsale Lad, Brooklyn Brownie and a few 'up and coming' second season chasers such as Joe Lively. However, as I looked through the form it was the Sue Smith trained Nirvana Swing that caught my imagination...
Originally trained in France by Guillame Macaire, he won two 4yo chases before being brought to England by Paul Nicholls. Unfortunately for Nirvana Swing things did not go so well and he only raced 4 times for the champion trainer and was pulled up on three of those occasions. Having won chases in France, his first and only race in novice company was in an £18k Amateur Riders Novices Handicap at the Aintree National meeting with the first two home being Mon Mome and New Alco. On his third start for Nicholls he was pitched into a £16k open handicap over 3 miles on heavy going at Haydock as a 5 year old and was pulled up. After another 'failure', this time at Newbury, he was sold to his current trainer.
As it turned out Nicholls may have been a little hasty in getting shod of the horse so early as Sue Smith subsequently got him to win on 3 out of his next 8 starts, and that might have been 4 if he hadn't unseated the rider at Kelso on his penulmtimate start, including his latest at Perth where he produced a much improved display. What really got me interested though were the comments in the Racing Post Analysis and the comments in running he earned in last few starts:
After winning his first race at Wetherby:
"A cracking race and a good performance from NIRVANA SWING and Peter Buchanan, who kept this giant gelding going in tremendous style despite his tendency to wander under pressure. He clearly responds to strong handling and, now that he’s got his head in front, he may be able to build on this success."
and after winning his next start at Market Rasen:
"He is a giant of a horse and, now that has got his jumping together, he should win more races."
After his latest win:
"A fair gallop to this handicap chase in which NIRVANA SWING maintained the improvement he has shown this year despite having been put up 11lb for his two wins. Racing in touch, he responded well to pressure to get up after the last. He's a great big sort, who has plenty of scope and should continue on the upgrade."
and
"chased leaders, driven 4 out, rallied next, led run-in, stayed on well"
After digesting all the information my internal dialogue went something like this....
"Ah so I see, when Nicholls had him he was a great big gangly 5 year old, rather like an adolescent boy that has out grown his strength...no wonder he couldn't cope with 3 miles on heavy going as a 5 year old, now he's a seven year old and he's filled out his frame, got stronger and is starting to show what he can do...he's a much happier horse too, rallies and responds to the jockey...hmm, interesting...(drifts off into deep thought)"
If you call up his lifetime form on the Racing Post website and click on 'Charts' you will see that he has in fact improved his rating on each of his last 5 starts. On his latest start he also produced a significant rating on Topspeed when winning by 2.5 lengths and 12 lengths and that is a clear indicator of a horse that is really improving.
This race on Friday represents a steep rise in class compared to the races he has won so far and he is set to race off a mark some 10lbs higher too. He is also reappearing after the best part of 6 months off so you could say he is up against it. Saying that he is still on a mark only 7lbs higher than when he made his debut for Nicholls yet has improved out of all recognition. The trainer clearly believes he must be up to it, or just wants to find out at least, and she clearly could have found an easier opportunity elsewhere in a 0-130 race or something.
I reckon there is every reason to believe that Nirvana Swing could be a 150+ horse in the making and that the trainer thinks so too. If he has really strengthened well over the summer months, then perhaps she's thinking along the lines of the William Hill Handicap Chase at the Festival and this could be a sighter. I note also that he remains a novice over hurdles and that may be exploited to protect his mark. Certainly the race on Friday will tell a lot about his future and I'm really looking forward to seeing him run.
At around 10/1 and with 4 places available, I think it's well worth gambling that the interpretation I have made, of his life, form and potential, does indeed turn out to be true...and if he doesn't win on Friday I am certain there are races to be won with him.
Bet Number 2
back Nirvana Swing 3 points ew @ 10/1+
I will also be having an ew double with Kasbah Bliss for the World Hurdle.
Thanks for reading - feedback would be appreciated
The Paddy Power Meeting at Cheltenham is just around the corner and traditionally has a significant bearing on the rest of the season and the Festival in particular. In fact, it is quite likely that we will see a 2009 Festival winner on show although they are not always obvious.
The race I am focussing on here is the Greatwood Hurdle Grade 3 which is run on Sunday 16th November. This is a fascinating race because it brings together two different formlines from last season which may have bearing on the Champion Hurdle come March.
The ante-post favourite on the early book is the Pipe trained 4 year old Ashkazar who was made favourite for the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at the last Festival, after winning the Sunderlands Imperial Cup in good style, and finished second behind Crack Away Jack who has been heavily backed for the Champion Hurdle itself. Crack Away Jack has already been out and won well this season off a much higher mark and the horse he beat, Squadron, has since won too and is also entered here. The form has a solid look to it.
The Supreme Novices Hurdle has proved already to be a very strong heat. runner up Binocular bolted in in Grade 1 company, third placed Snap Tie beat reigning Champion hurdler Katchit on his seasonal debut, 4th placed Kalahari King won at Punchestown, 6th placed Blue Bajan won the Swinton by 8 lengths, 11th placed Pigeon Island won easily at Kempton and just last week 15th placed Sentry Duty hacked up in a handicap hurdle at Ascot. There is no doubt that this was a very strong heat and a few of those are entered in the Greatwood.
This then will give a clear and direct indication of the relative strength of the two formlines as they have not really crossed so far and no doubt whatever happens we will see a shake up in the Champion Hurdle market.
I am of the opinion that the Supreme form will prove the stronger so I must therefore oppose Ashkazar at the odds. Paul Nicholls' Rippling Ring was 5th in the Supreme on only his second hurdling start which was an excellent effort on the back of which he was made red-hot favourite for a handicap hurdle at Aintree on his seasonal debut. Having disappointed badly there it was discovered that he was suffering an infection and has been treated with anti-biotics since. He remains potentially leniently treated but I couldn't support him coming off such a poor effort.
Andrew Turnell has his team in rude health (6 out last 10 runners have won) and his Blue Bajan is a talented horse. However, he seems better on a flat track and was well beaten at Ascot by Sentry Duty. He would be well suited by genuinely good going which he may get. However, he has it all to do to reverse form with the Phillip Hobbs trained Snap Tie.
Hobbs is following a well trodden path with Snap Tie on route to the Champion Hurdle. When his Rooster Booster won the Champion Hurdle he won both the Greatwood and the same race that Snap Tie won at Kempton, the WBX Hurdle, along the way. Snap Tie is set to carry topweight of 11-12 in the Greatwood and to race off 153 but don't let that put you off as his trainer knows exactly what kind of horse you need to win this race off topweight having pulled off the feat twice with the Rooster and poor old Detroit City. Both of those bolted up in this race off similar marks.
Many may think that beating Katchit on his seasonal debut in receipt of 3lbs doesn't count for much but the numbers really stack up well. Based on that and the Supreme form (through Binocular) I already make Snap Tie a 165 horse and I reckon Hobbs does too. If that is indeed the case, he is going to be very hard to beat here off a mark of 153 and I cannot see any way that he won't at least place in this race so at 10/1 I make him a very strong each way selection. He would definitely prefer good ground so I am hoping for a good dry week ahead.
We are really getting into the season now and more and more clues will emerge as we go. This race will clear up the picture for the Champion Hurdle.
Bet No.3
back Snap Tie 5 points ew @ 10/1 with Stan James and Bet Direct
I have also spent plenty of time looking at the Paddy Power Gold Cup but am waiting for the 5 day declarations to see which horse is likely to be topweight and therefore what the weights carried will be
Really looking forward to the meeting as I'm sure many folks are. _________________ RJI
Racing returns to Cheltenham today and I'm sure many of you are looking forward to it as much as me.
If you will indulge me again, as I try to crystalise the thoughts I've had this week into some kind of coherent explanation, then I hope you will find at least that you enjoy watching this race:
4:05 IG Index Handicap Chase (for The Studd Challenge Cup) (Class 2) (4yo+,0-150) £18,786.00 3m110y GOOD 17 declared
This is a fairly decent handicap chase and features some old favourites like Fundamentalist, Copsale Lad, Brooklyn Brownie and a few 'up and coming' second season chasers such as Joe Lively. However, as I looked through the form it was the Sue Smith trained Nirvana Swing that caught my imagination...
Originally trained in France by Guillame Macaire, he won two 4yo chases before being brought to England by Paul Nicholls. Unfortunately for Nirvana Swing things did not go so well and he only raced 4 times for the champion trainer and was pulled up on three of those occasions. Having won chases in France, his first and only race in novice company was in an £18k Amateur Riders Novices Handicap at the Aintree National meeting with the first two home being Mon Mome and New Alco. On his third start for Nicholls he was pitched into a £16k open handicap over 3 miles on heavy going at Haydock as a 5 year old and was pulled up. After another 'failure', this time at Newbury, he was sold to his current trainer.
As it turned out Nicholls may have been a little hasty in getting shod of the horse so early as Sue Smith subsequently got him to win on 3 out of his next 8 starts, and that might have been 4 if he hadn't unseated the rider at Kelso on his penulmtimate start, including his latest at Perth where he produced a much improved display. What really got me interested though were the comments in the Racing Post Analysis and the comments in running he earned in last few starts:
After winning his first race at Wetherby:
"A cracking race and a good performance from NIRVANA SWING and Peter Buchanan, who kept this giant gelding going in tremendous style despite his tendency to wander under pressure. He clearly responds to strong handling and, now that he’s got his head in front, he may be able to build on this success."
and after winning his next start at Market Rasen:
"He is a giant of a horse and, now that has got his jumping together, he should win more races."
After his latest win:
"A fair gallop to this handicap chase in which NIRVANA SWING maintained the improvement he has shown this year despite having been put up 11lb for his two wins. Racing in touch, he responded well to pressure to get up after the last. He's a great big sort, who has plenty of scope and should continue on the upgrade."
and
"chased leaders, driven 4 out, rallied next, led run-in, stayed on well"
After digesting all the information my internal dialogue went something like this....
"Ah so I see, when Nicholls had him he was a great big gangly 5 year old, rather like an adolescent boy that has out grown his strength...no wonder he couldn't cope with 3 miles on heavy going as a 5 year old, now he's a seven year old and he's filled out his frame, got stronger and is starting to show what he can do...he's a much happier horse too, rallies and responds to the jockey...hmm, interesting...(drifts off into deep thought)"
If you call up his lifetime form on the Racing Post website and click on 'Charts' you will see that he has in fact improved his rating on each of his last 5 starts. On his latest start he also produced a significant rating on Topspeed when winning by 2.5 lengths and 12 lengths and that is a clear indicator of a horse that is really improving.
This race on Friday represents a steep rise in class compared to the races he has won so far and he is set to race off a mark some 10lbs higher too. He is also reappearing after the best part of 6 months off so you could say he is up against it. Saying that he is still on a mark only 7lbs higher than when he made his debut for Nicholls yet has improved out of all recognition. The trainer clearly believes he must be up to it, or just wants to find out at least, and she clearly could have found an easier opportunity elsewhere in a 0-130 race or something.
I reckon there is every reason to believe that Nirvana Swing could be a 150+ horse in the making and that the trainer thinks so too. If he has really strengthened well over the summer months, then perhaps she's thinking along the lines of the William Hill Handicap Chase at the Festival and this could be a sighter. I note also that he remains a novice over hurdles and that may be exploited to protect his mark. Certainly the race on Friday will tell a lot about his future and I'm really looking forward to seeing him run.
At around 10/1 and with 4 places available, I think it's well worth gambling that the interpretation I have made, of his life, form and potential, does indeed turn out to be true...and if he doesn't win on Friday I am certain there are races to be won with him.
Bet Number 2
back Nirvana Swing 3 points ew @ 10/1+
I will also be having an ew double with Kasbah Bliss for the World Hurdle.
Thanks for reading - feedback would be appreciated
Enjoy the racing!
Nirvana Swing goes again in the 2.45 at Haydock on Saturday and despite being pulled up at Cheltenham I still consider him potentially much better than his current mark.
So, at 28/1 with Bet 365, BetDirect and Stan James I am going in again.
Recommended Bet
back Nirvana Swing 3 points ew @ 28/1 Stan James, Bet 365 and BetDirect _________________ RJI
We are well into the Jumps Season now and the build up to the Festival continues. Sandown and Wetherby present us with some high quality racing indeed. Master Minded the Champion Chasr takes on Tidal Bay in the Tingle Creek. Can he reproduce that jaw dropping display in the QMCC?
The top hurdling division takes centre stage at Wetherby with former Champion Hurdler Sublimity taking on Punjabi in the re-routed Fighting Fifth. Punjabi came out on top at both Cheltenham and Punchestown and will probably do so again. Plenty of people will be wanting to lump on the 'banker double' at 8/11 and 4/6 which pays 15/8 your money. I might even do so myself although I have seen enough 'good things' turned over (haven't we all) to make me sceptical.
There are plenty of decent handicaps to get stuck into and I fancy a few to run well at decent odds. Perhaps the one I could back with most conviction would be Zitenka who goes at Wetherby in the 3 mile 1 furlong race. Ran a cracking race at Kelso last time out and is only 6 so I expect plenty more improvement to come sooner or later. He is up in grade here however so I can only have a small bet.
Onto the main business then and I must admit I am taking a flyer here, in the hope of landing an almighty touch, on a horse that many would knock as 'dodgy', 'unreliable' or any other such comment. Nevertheless, the fact remains that Joacci definitely has plenty of form in the book that entitles him to go close off a mark of 133. He seems to have been around for ages yet is still only 8 years old and has only raced 16 times over fences winning 3 times and placing 3 times. Here are just a couple of examples of what he can do on a going day:
01 Jan 2006 Cheltenham OR 143 RPR 159 won 3mile 2.5f Chase
05 May 2007 Uttox OR 143 RPR 151 2/12 Class 2 Chase
He has also won over 3 miles 3.5 furlongs so there is no doubt he will stay the 3 mile 5.5 furlong trip of the London National Chase at 3.35 Sandown. He was pulled up on his seasonal reappearace at Wincanton and so it is a leap of faith to bet him here. However, the opposition is mainly made up of disappointing/unreliable sorts and badly handicapped and penalised runners very few of which make much appeal. There can be little doubt that on a going day Joacci would have a major chance off this mark so at 33/1 with Ladbrokes I reckon he is well worth a decent punt. The pay off is definitely worth the risk IMHO.
Recommended Bet
back Joacci 5 points ew 33/1 at Ladbrokes
Have a very enjoyable and profitable weekend folks
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and I'm sure many of you are looking forward to it as much as me.