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Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 10:31 am Post subject: Re: Juvenile Turf
Machiavellian wrote:
How far does Westphalia win?
I was thinking exactly the same. Achill Island almost won it last year, Westpahlia is a much better horse and we all know that the US generally run their weakest horses over turf as 2 year olds.
I hadn't really bothered to look at this race until now but after doing so I'm inclined to agree that WESTPHALIA is the bet of the meeting @ 3/1. US turf horses are generally pretty shite and as Swagger says even Achill Island nearly won last year. There is simply not much in opposition for Westphalia to worry about and looks like a 6/4 shot to me
edited to add; plus the 3 US horses with the best turf form (based on rpr's, still 10lbs behind Westphalia) are in the outside 3 stalls (10,11,12)
Just had a nice bet on Westphalia to win @ 3/1 w/ Coral (11/4 on betfair). Also pleased to see Laddies cut him from 3/1 to 9/4 (bottom price) in the past hour.
Had a nice surprise in my Coral account. Not used it in ages and thought there were no funds - logged in; £70.00 in there! Went to a/c history and it seems I won a bet on the King Geeorge that I didn't realise. Back in July I (thought I had) backed DoM to win by more than 1.5l @ 5/2 in the KG but it seems I accidentally backed him to win by less than 1.5l @ 5/2 and so I won without realising
Just had a nice bet on Westphalia to win @ 3/1 w/ Coral (11/4 on betfair). Also pleased to see Laddies cut him from 3/1 to 9/4 (bottom price) in the past hour.
Had a nice surprise in my Coral account. Not used it in ages and thought there were no funds - logged in; £70.00 in there! Went to a/c history and it seems I won a bet on the King Geeorge that I didn't realise. Back in July I (thought I had) backed DoM to win by more than 1.5l @ 5/2 in the KG but it seems I accidentally backed him to win by less than 1.5l @ 5/2 and so I won without realising
That is sensational stuff. _________________ This is like a flashback,
This is like a dream
Having beaten Crowded House, surely its worth chancing Donativum...the form looks very strong...they had Liberation back in 4th and I make him a minimum Group 2 horse...and we saw what Crowded House did today _________________ RJI
Having beaten Crowded House, surely its worth chancing Donativum...the form looks very strong...they had Liberation back in 4th and I make him a minimum Group 2 horse...and we saw what Crowded House did today
I like Westphalia but this horse's (now attractive) form is a worry - could be a really big price in the US so I may try and back him in their market
well I dont see much in Westphalias' profile to shout about. If he wasn't trained by AOB he would be at least double the price (for instance, his highest TS rating was achieved in defeat which I take as a negative, and his highest TS when winning is 7. He might win but he makes no appeal to me. _________________ RJI
well I dont see much in Westphalias' profile to shout about. If he wasn't trained by AOB he would be at least double the price (for instance, his highest TS rating was achieved in defeat which I take as a negative, and his highest TS when winning is 7. He might win but he makes no appeal to me.
TS 94 when 2nd to Bushranger (since won 2 grp 1's) over trip on short side is pretty good in my eyes, and beating of Zacinto last time looks solid; time was nothing special but Topspeed is less reliable imo when it is soft. His 2 tries on fastish ground have produced his two best speed figures too
Having beaten Crowded House, surely its worth chancing Donativum...the form looks very strong...they had Liberation back in 4th and I make him a minimum Group 2 horse...and we saw what Crowded House did today
Admittedly, Donativum looks to be the danger but Crowded House improved over a stone to win today from that run at HQ and Nasri didn't exactly frank the form so it's all relative.
I agree Donativum is the only danger Westphalia needs to worry about in my view.
The attraction about Westphalia for me is that he is a listed and Group 2 winner, has been second behind Bushranger and Intense Focus and beat what is widely known as Stoute's best 2 yr old when quickening clear over 7 furlongs and looking likely to appreciate the step up to a mile.
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. He might win but he makes no appeal to me.