alansouthcoast
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Joined: 28 Mar 2006
Posts: 13721
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 Posted: Sat May 23, 2009 9:25 am Post subject: Mick The Miller - Issue Thirty - 23/05/09 |
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Semi Final night tonight, and work to do. Current losses are 15.91 Points so hopefully we can pull a bit back.
Away from the Semis at Wimbledon there is a great care Bohernas Best, Ninja Jamie, Toosey Blue, Blonde Dino, Lenson Express Tyrur Hestor and kryptonite are all on show at some point.
Ninja Jamie goes in the 8.10 against Tyrur Hestor, who is sure to give him a race. Jamie is odds on with everyone except Bet365 who offer evens and I would suggest snapping this up. Jamie is drawn in T/1 and should get a clear lead at the first turn. If either of the first two in the betting slip up, Lenson express at around 7/1 could be a decent E/w bet.
On to the first, and most difficult semi final. Wise Thought, Fear Zafonic and Ballymac Ruso run against each other. Ballymac Ruso would seem the pic after his exciting run in the quarters, but its to close a race to be certain of anything. Fear Zafonic is better drawn than the other night, running from T/2. Wise Thought in T/5 is favourite, I think thats more because he is likely to get a clear run. Ruso is drawn in T/3, so much depends on the break. None stand out as clear value, I think its a case of "Pays your money and takes your choice" At least two of these three should qualify for the final.
At 9.40 we have the second semi and a much easier race to be bullish about. I cant see past Farloe Reason in T/2 6/4 with Betfred looks a steal in my view. The second Favourite Glenard Sunrise goes from T/1 but Farloe can get round unscathed. Bubbly Maestro may also qualify getting away smartly in T/6. I also think Farloe Reason to win outright is massive value at 11/2 with totesport. He only needs to finish third tonight, a cert in my view, and third in the final, for a free bet. Most bookies offer 1/4 the odds 1,2,3 for the final.
Selections
Its tempting to lump on and get out of trouble in one hit. I am going to stick to smallish stakes though, and hopefully claw back some recent losses.
8.10 Ninja Jamie 4 Points @ ev with Bet365
9.40 Farloe Reason 4 Points at 6/4 with Betfred
Running Total - 15.91 Points.
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