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Swagger · Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 12:18 am Post subject: NUNTHORPE STAKES 2007

I couldn't see another thread for the above race so i started one up (apologies if there is one - just move my post to the existing thread if there is one, many thanks)

I don't normally get involved in sprint races as the horses seem to beat each other race after race and it is hard to know which races you can trust the form in.

Now, i have had a look through this field and am drawn to MAGNUS, currently 9/1 best price with the bookmakers and 10/1 on the exchanges.

I will start by going through a few of the others that are well fancied;
Amadeus Wolf - Looks overpriced on some pieces of his form, but i can't help think he is better over 6 furlongs
Dandy Man - Leading chance, but think his very best form is on fast ground, something we are unlikely to encounter for this race at this stage.
Red Clubs - Along with Dandy Man, he brings the most consistant form into this race on the back of his last two runs , trainer bang in form and looks overpriced. Again i have a suspicion his best form is over 6 furlongs.
Moorhouse Lad - Improving type but is he really good enough?
Reverence - Hasn't looked the same horse as last year so far this season and will the ground be soft enough for him to produce his best. Dangerous to write off but doesn't appeal to me at 6/1.

There are a host of others with a chance if they put there best foot forward, e.g. Desert Lord, Beauty is Truth, etc, but i think MAGNUS could be too good for them if he puts it all together here.

Extracts from racing post:

MOONEE VALLEY
03 February 2007
Good
4:30 Coolmore Lightning Stakes (Group 1) (3yo+) 5f
Draw TRAINER Age Wgt JOCKEY SP OR TS RPR

1 Miss Andretti 1 Lee Freedman 6 8-11 C Newitt 11/5F — 121
2 1½ Magnus (AUS) 8 P Moody 5 9-3 b L Nolen 14/1 — 122
3 1 Ticklish (NZ) 2 S Pinfold 6 8-11 G Childs 25/1 — 112
4 ¾ Any Suggestion 9 D Hayes 5 9-3 b B Rawiller 200/1 — 116
5 ½ Virage De Fortune 6 B McLachlan 4 8-11 D M Oliver — 108
6 nse Dance The Waves 7 Gillian Heinrich 6 9-3 Brad Stewart — 114
7 hd Rewaaya (NZ) 5 D Hayes 5 8-11 Dwayne Dunn — 107
8 shd California Dane 4 Lee Freedman 4 9-3 b Corey Brown — 113
9 5 Strada 3 Mrs Gai Waterhouse 4 9-3 C Munce — 95

WARWICK FARM
25 March 2007
Soft
4:44 Bisley Workwear Galaxy Handicap (Group 1) (3yo+) (5f110y) 5½f
Draw TRAINER Age Wgt JOCKEY SP OR TS RPR

1 Magnus 6 P Moody 5 8-8 b D M Oliver 4/1 — 121
2 snk Fast ´N´ Famous (AUS) 7 John O´Shea 5 8-6 D Beadman 28/10F — 118
3 1 Mac´s Tune 5 G O´Brien 7 8-4 S Seamer 80/1 — 113
4 nse Bentley Biscuit 4 Mrs Gai Waterhouse 6 8-8 J H Bowman 36/10 — 117
5 1¼ Black Ink (AUS) 14 L Kelly 7 8-5 b Jim Cassidy — 110
6 hd Ticklish (NZ) 3 S Pinfold 6 8-1 C Newitt — 105
7 nse Spark Of Life 12 A Denham 6 9-3 Z Purton — 121
8 2¼ Whoever 11 G Walter 5 8-0 Kathy O´Hara — 97
9 shd Virage De Fortune 1 B McLachlan 4 8-7 Jim Byrne — 103
10 ½ Crepe De Chine (NZ) 8 Danny O´Brien 4 8-0 G Boss — 95
11 1½ De Beers (NZ) 9 D Hayes 4 8-10 Craig Williams — 100
12 2 Biscayne Bay 2 Paul Perry 5 8-4 Tim Clark — 87
13 1¾ Red Oog 13 J Pride 7 9-1 C Brown — 92
14 2 Century Serb 10 M Miladinovic 4 8-4 b Jay Ford — 75

ASCOT
19 June 2007
Good To Firm
3:05 King's Stand Stakes (British Leg of The Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo+) 5f
Draw TRAINER Age Wgt JOCKEY SP OR TS RPR

1 Miss Andretti (AUS) 19 Lee Freedman 6 9-1 C Newitt 3/1F 0 125 126+
2 1¾ Dandy Man (IRE) 1 Tracey Collins 4 9-4 P Shanahan 15/2 0 122 123+
3 nk Magnus (AUS) 17 P Moody 5 9-4 b D M Oliver 14/1 0 121 121
4 ½ Takeover Target (AUS) 14 J Janiak 8 9-4 Jay Ford 11/2 0 120 120
5 1½ Enticing (IRE) 12 W J Haggas 3 8-9 Jamie Spencer 8/1 115 109 110
6 1¾ Desert Lord 20 K A Ryan 7 9-4 b N Callan 25/1 117 108 108
7 hd Beauty Is Truth (IRE) 10 Robert Collet 3 8-9 b T Thulliez 14/1 0 102 103
8 ½ The Tatling (IRE) 15 J M Bradley 10 9-4 Darryll Holland 66/1 100 106 106
9 ½ Green Manalishi 21 K A Ryan 6 9-4 Ted Durcan 66/1 105 104 104
10 1¼ Moorhouse Lad 18 B Smart 4 9-4 Tom Eaves 100/1 93 99 100
11 hd Tax Free (IRE) 7 D Nicholls 5 9-4 Adrian T Nicholls 14/1 110 99 99
12 shd Benbaun (IRE) 5 M J Wallace 6 9-4 v P J Smullen 10/1 115 98 99
13 ½ Pivotal Point 4 P J Makin 7 9-4 Seb Sanders 40/1 111 96 97
14 hd Moss Vale (IRE) 11 D Nicholls 6 9-4 L Dettori 25/1 114 96 96
15 shd Conquest (IRE) 9 W J Haggas 3 8-12 b J H Bowman 50/1 114 93 94
16 1 Manzila (FR) 2 F Head 4 9-1 O Peslier 150/1 0 89 89
17 1 King Orchisios (IRE) 6 K A Ryan 4 9-4 p D O´Donohoe 66/1 108 88 88
18 nk Matsunosuke 8 A B Coogan 5 9-4 J Murtagh 200/1 75 87 87
19 5 Dazed And Amazed 16 R Hannon 3 8-12 Richard Hughes 100/1 94 66 67
20 ½ Bentley Biscuit (AUS) 3 Mrs Gai Waterhouse 6 9-4 Nash Rawiller 9/1 0 66 68

He has run 3 times over 5 furlongs, with 1 win and 2 places coming from them. Interestingly, he has run 7 times over 5 1/2 furlongs, winning twice, coming 2nd three times and 3rd on the other two occasions. So (i think) i am right in stating he has always at least been placed when running over 5 furlongs or 5 1/2 furlongs in the 10 races he has featured in.

He obviously has some very strong form tied in with other great Australian sprinters Miss Andretti and Bentley Biscuit who also bring in the collateral form of Takeover Target.

I would put a line through his last run in the Golden Jubilee as he didn't run any sort of race and appeared to run too keen throughout the race.
23 Jun 2007 Ascot (6GS,RPR93)
Once again he over-raced, quite severely, It was a bit like the other day. I thought Tuesday's run might have taken the edge off him. - Peter Moody.
But If you can forgive him that run then his price would probably be more like 5/1, so the 9/1 could look massive after the race.

I think it is a shrewd jockey booking with Kerrin McEvoy in the plate and basically believe Magnus, a horse who seems to find his best on any ground, will be hard to beat in the Nunthorpe.

I don't know if there is a draw bias in this race, as i stated before - i'm not really a sprint king unlike some on this forum who really seem to specialise in the shorter format, but other than that i don't see why he should not at least be in the frame in what does not look like a particuarly strong renewal in my view.

Other people's views/tips?

Regards to all.

The LUFCwaffe · Group Performer Joined: 02 Jan 2007 Posts: 2119

Morning Swagger

I'd selected Dandy Man for the TTF list as I expected/ hoped the ground would be riding faster...looks like it'll be good to soft. He won't be out of this, but he'll run a few pounds lower than his, and that may now be just short of what is required.

A horse like Magnus should then come into play, as he doesn't mind a big field, can race up with the pace, and tends to only get caught by the odd fast finisher or two. That fast finisher on this ground IMO is Beauty Is Truth. A 3yo who's clocked a RP rating high enough to get in the mix, should still be improving and will like the ground.

Hampton · Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 10:35 am Post subject:

I'm tempted by Wi Dud who looks as if he's picked up abit after a wee lull in his form but much will depend on the going at York this week.
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alansouthcoast · Site Admin Joined: 28 Mar 2006 Posts: 13722

The stats for this favour the top 3 in the betting. They have an 85% strike rate, the favs have 45%. The draw may not help Dandy Man, but he should go very close and i think he is the percentage call at 11/4

RightJudgeIam · Posted: Thu Aug 23, 2007 10:26 am Post subject:

alansouthcoast · Site Admin Joined: 28 Mar 2006 Posts: 13722

Hi Rick....Kingsgate Native almost landed a monster gamble fo Dave Nevisson first time out. he was a head second to Drawnfromthepast at Ascot. The s/p was 66/1 but Nevo took prices up to 200/1 on Betairs.
Next time out at Goodwood ( Molecombe ? ) He was second to Fleeting Spirit , who runs in the Lowther, and yesterdays winner Sir Gerrard was third. I just think at 2 its a big ask but i have picked him in the comps.

Keepitreal · Posted: Thu Aug 23, 2007 11:48 am Post subject:

Red Clubs for me in the Nunthrope

RightJudgeIam · Posted: Thu Aug 23, 2007 2:18 pm Post subject:

Tagalie · Posted: Thu Aug 23, 2007 2:22 pm Post subject:

RJI- it's still a moral victory- like having your nag win Best Turned Out....
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Swagger · Posted: Thu Aug 23, 2007 9:31 pm Post subject:

Well done to the judge and anyone else who backed the two year old - like Tag's says it's a moral victory.

Magnus ran like a drain, i am slightly disappointed in myself for getting involved in a sprint race as you often have weird results.

You can't really trust any form as they all beat each other race after race.

Well done to those who had Kingsgate Native, i take my hat off to you.

Regards.