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racingfanatic · Posted: Mon Oct 05, 2009 11:36 am Post subject: Paddy Power Gold Cup

I know this is over a month away and we are all still reeling from Sea the Stars yesterday but...

I was at a party on Sat night and was told by Tom George and then by his wife that they believe they have an outstanding chance in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. I know we are still waiting for weights but this has been the plan since last season and they have been trying to protect his handicap mark. Apparently he has improved hugely over the summer and as they said 'is by far the best horse they have ever had in training'...the aim in ultimately the King George but they will go via the Paddy Power Gold Cup...

The horse in question is Tartak. I am pasing on info which I hope is useful....

Here is where I start getting properly excited about the NH season...

anyone heard any other confidence for this or any other races at Cheltenham in November...will be there all weekend!!!!

suejoe · Group Performer Joined: 29 Nov 2006 Posts: 5838

I've given up watching racing......I was sick of seeing horses injured or killed....it just got too much after Wichita died.

To be honest I haven't missed it at all but I've just seen this thread and I suddenly feel excited!
I love the Paddy Power meeting and I love Tartak......will Sam Thomas be on him?

NH racing makes the long winter very bearable......help.....I didn't want to feel like this......I thought I could live without racing.

I don't know what to do

Sue

racingfanatic · Posted: Mon Oct 05, 2009 12:10 pm Post subject:

He will indeed...apparently Sam is very sweet on him...am going to meet him in a couple of weeks which will be interesting.

Also Tom is seriously excited about this season...he emptied out his yard virtually a few years ago and bought in young horses for him to bring on...he was adamant that this will comfortably be his best season yet.

Suejoe...I love racing for everything that goes with the actual race as well as the race...there are tragedies in every sport and no matter how safe they make things accidents will always happen, especially with horses

suejoe · Group Performer Joined: 29 Nov 2006 Posts: 5838

Thanks racingfanatic...........I'm getting seriously excited here thinking about Tartak.

I was so pleased for Sam when he got the job with Tom George.......I can see I'm going to have to start watching it again

Sue

Andy · Posted: Mon Oct 05, 2009 12:32 pm Post subject:

Tartak is a decent horse and 2m4f/2m5f would probably be his optimum trip. However, the handicapper has put him up to 154 after his Aintree win and that's a stiff enough mark for a horse graduating from the novice ranks. Mister McGoldrick carried top weight off 158 in this race last year so Tartak is likely to be near the head of the handicap.

Course form seems important for this race: since 5yo Cyfor Malta won the race in 1998, every Paddy Power winner except Fondmort has been placed at Cheltenham previously, and most of them had actually registered a win. Fondmort went on to be a Cheltenham specialist and his two Cheltenham runs before his PP win can probably be forgiven - the first was his 2nd start over fences and he finished lame in Moscow Flyer's Arkle. Tartak has has two runs at Cheltenham and though by no means disgraced, he hasn't set the world alight either.

Hadn't considered this race before but I like the look of Isn't That Lucky, Naiad Du Misselot, Ping Pong Sivola, and Gauvain. They all boast decent course form and will be much further down the weights than Tartak.

suejoe · Group Performer Joined: 29 Nov 2006 Posts: 5838

I can't believe it's 11 years since Cyfor Malta won the race

BTW I'd have thought Tom George would have said Nacarat was the best horse he'd had in training.

Definitely getting excited now

Sue

Darren · Posted: Mon Oct 05, 2009 1:22 pm Post subject:

suejoe · Group Performer Joined: 29 Nov 2006 Posts: 5838

lenahan · Group Performer Joined: 24 Sep 2006 Posts: 1421

This is pretty much the strongest stats and trends race out there for throwing up the winner year after year that i know of and that is definetly the way to go for picking the winner of this race. Last year Imperial Commander and Barbers Shop were by far the two trends picks and of course they came first and second.

geordie_racer · Posted: Mon Oct 05, 2009 2:23 pm Post subject:

cant see any entries or anything for this yet, can you?
_________________
Geordie_R
"A should of known there mum was buying banana's"

Andy · Posted: Mon Oct 05, 2009 2:28 pm Post subject:

Geordie,

No entries yet. Lenahan is right in that this race is very strong on trends, especially course, and in particular Festival form.

That's why Isn't That Lucky, Naiad Du Misselot, Ping Pong Sivola, and Gauvain would be on my shortlist if they are entered.

geordie_racer · Posted: Mon Oct 05, 2009 2:31 pm Post subject:

racingfanatic · Posted: Mon Oct 05, 2009 2:44 pm Post subject:

I agree with all said and I will have a few quid on the stats horse(s) but it really puzzled me that they said Nacarat wasn't a spot on Tartak...it is just that he has really put on muscle over the summer...honestly they were really excited by the fact they thought this horse could win the king george...

I know it seems crazy but I have known them for 8 years and I have never seen them so confident - Tom isn't one to talk up his horses...it may have been a bit of the old drink talking but they were confident.

I just thought I should bring it to everyone's attention...I personally think they took a long time to work out his optimum trip and way of running...it only finally clicked at Aintree...and he had a relatively long season

Andy · Posted: Mon Oct 05, 2009 2:48 pm Post subject:

Yeah, Something Wells shouldn't be discounted though i'd be more interested in Ping Pong Sivola as Something Wells is now rated 150 after his Festival win and Ping Pong is on a more competitive-looking 136.

A couple of stats I picked up from the thread last year: -
- 30 of the last 37 winners were in the top 4 in the betting
- 15 of the last 17 winners had previously won at the track
- It's been over 15 Years since a ten year old+ has been placed

Those stats stood up so now 31 of 38 winners were top 4 betting and 16 of the last 18 winners had previously won at the course.

Warrsan · Claimer Joined: 30 Aug 2009 Posts: 44

Thanks for the info racingfanatic and so excited about the season ahead.

Have a good day at Tom's as if i was lucky enough to win some lottery money then my horses would be going to him.