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Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 1:36 pm Post subject: St Leger
It’s a while since I contributed to the Greyhound section, so here’s my take on the on-going St Leger at Wimbledon. I really like these multi-round events, as once the 1st round is out of the way, you have some real relative track form to analyse, unlike the one-off Opens where dogs from all over the country meet with little or no collateral form.
Over the last few competitions I’ve been analysing how predictive the 1st rnd results were in terms of the final outcome.
This may look like after-timing, but the analysis I did after the 1st round of the Northern puppy Derby produced the following.
the calculated time takes into account the going correction and a trouble free run.
Obviously the winner was Droopys Kez with Raving Black and Crown Rover filling the places. Droopys Kez was available to back at 11/2, Crown Rover 5/1 and Raving Black 16/1 at the time. Droopys Quinta was the 5/2 fav.
Retrospectively, looking back at last years St Leger, after the 1st round. The 24 remaining dogs were ranked as follows;
The price shown is the SP for the ¼ final race, to give some indication of what their overall winning SP might have been.
The outright winner of last year’s St Leger was Spiridon Louis, who beat Lenson Joker into 2nd. Westmead Aoifa 3rd, Directors Chair 4th, Bubbly Venus 5th and Iceman Brutas 6th .
Looking at this years St Leger, and following Saturday night’s 1st round, the remaining 24 dogs are ranked as follows;
The price shown is the best current price available excluding the exchanges.
Bubbly Totti at 3/1 may seem short, but he is running into form and is 3 lengths clear of anyone else. Lenson Joker has been running at the very top for quite a while and he looks flatter than he did 2 months ago. What is also of interest is the prices of those dogs ranked 2,3 & 4.
The majority of the bookies go ¼ odds 1,2,3,4 and based on the above I think backing Bubbly Totti win and Iceman brutus, Division Belle and Shelbourne Tiger e/w will hopefully return a profit.
Thanks for sharing your analysis with us Mikey, very impressive.
Bit disappointed to see the Joker down the list ( ) but Iceman Brutus certainly looks a nice ew bet. I'm going to have to give this some serious review before placing any wagers! _________________ Greet people with four kisses - one for each cheek... Duke Ellington
Mikey i am really impressed. Bubbly Totti had the fastest time of the night. Division Belle also won a heat, and five of the first six selections qualified, despite three being in the same heat.
Last week all the talk was of Flying Winner, but talk was he didnt handle the Wimbledon track too well. Since injury caused him to be withdrawn we wont know.
Lenson Joker finished last at odds of 2/5. Bubbly Totti won his semi in fine style and will surely be odds on for the final now. _________________ If at first you dont succeed..then skydiving isnt for you
Thanks for the note Alan. I'm slightly dissapointed with how this competition has gone from punting perspective with all 3 of the longer priced e/w picks being eliminated before the final.
Shelborne Tiger finished 5th in the quaters, narrowly missing out on 3rd by 0.02 seconds. Division Belle won her 1/4 final but was subsiquently disqualified for deliberate interference and Iceman Brutsus finished 4th in his semi despite his time being quicker than the 2nd semi winner.
That said, Bubbly Totti is now 2/7 to win and so hopefully a small profit overall. Lenson Joker, as Alan said finished last after trouble in running, but in my opinion never looked like the eventual winner as his form has definately tailed off over the last few months
Lenson Joker tore a muscle in his hind leg and is out till next year.Definate explanation for his woeful performance in the semi. _________________ sticks & stones may break my bones but whips & chains excite me
Thanks for that Brett, at least it explains his run. I just hope Lenson Joker recovers okay. I`m not sure if he would have beaten Bubbly Totti anyhow. Totti is in the form of his life, having won seven on the spin. His last defeat was in the Semis of the Yorkshire St Leger, when Midway Skipper beat him. Totti reversed the form in the final, and i expect Skipper to be his biggest danger in the final. 8/1 e/w seems a decent bet to me. _________________ If at first you dont succeed..then skydiving isnt for you
Bubbly went from the front and won by 3 lengths. Just watched it after the Newcastle game.
Interesting the race before (9.25) as it was declared void as the 5 dog was 2 lengths in front going into the 3rd bend and was distracted by a crisp packet blowing across the track, he came to almost a complete standstill, incredible. Would have won easy.
Stewards thought this as well and declared the race void.
MT jnr _________________ THERE ARE 2 RULES TO SUCCESS. RULE 1)DONT TELL EVERYONE WHAT YOU KNOW
I must say Mikey a brilliant piece of work on your behalf. You originally stated he was 3 lengths ahead of anything and sure enough he won the final easily by... 3 lengths _________________ 2008 Roll Of Honour (So Far....)
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) but Iceman Brutus certainly looks a nice ew bet. I'm going to have to give this some serious review before placing any wagers! 
