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Tough call between Binocular and KS as both are probably about 5/2 shots
I agree 100% with the last 3 prices, without Tidal Bay I would make Masterminded about a 1/12 chance (he can only loose if he falls, another horse falls infront of him or if he breaks down during the race which I would guess is about 1 in 10 then add in the bookies rinse factor =1/12). I would make Kasbah Bliss about an 8/13 chance.
Tough call between Binocular and KS as both are probably about 5/2 shots
I agree 100% with the last 3 prices, without Tidal Bay I would make Masterminded about a 1/12 chance (he can only loose if he falls, another horse falls infront of him or if he breaks down during the race which I would guess is about 1 in 10 then add in the bookies rinse factor =1/12). I would make Kasbah Bliss about an 8/13 chance.
Regards.
Yes I did write 1/6 initially but then changed it for some reason. Quite simply a cert. I hardly ever bet odds on shots but if I can get 1/3 on the day I wouldn't rule out backing him. If I saw a 20/1 shot who I thought should be 10/1 I would back it so why not a 1/3 shot who I feel should be 1/6?!
I wouldn't change his price by much whether Tidal Bay was in the race or not - TB is surely not capable of running anywhere near to 180+ over 2m - simply not fast enough (Arkle was a weak staying race on that Tuesday ground and that was the reason he could hold a position and then outstay them). Not a threat imo
Kauto is surely the most vulnerable. He has been beaten on 4 of his last 5 starts going left handed and is trying to overcome the stat about regaining the Gold Cup. Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think any previous winner has regained it?
If that is right then his current odds are very skinny indeed. _________________ RJI
Kauto is surely the most vulnerable. He has been beaten on 4 of his last 5 starts going left handed and is trying to overcome the stat about regaining the Gold Cup. Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think any previous winner has regained it?
If that is right then his current odds are very skinny indeed.
That's right - no horse has regained it I believe. Now that is a stat I will give some respect to! Also most Gold Cup winners are far more lightly raced than Kauto is. So yes these powerful stats coupled with the fact that he hasn't been at his best in the last year with the exception of his KG win make 2/1 look poor value. He is also now a 9yo French bred, and, whilst it may sound strange, the fact that he is nearly 3mths older now compared to his last run may not be insignificant at his age. They all have to deteriorate at some point unfortunately . . .
Tough call between Binocular and KS as both are probably about 5/2 shots
I agree 100% with the last 3 prices, without Tidal Bay I would make Masterminded about a 1/12 chance (he can only loose if he falls, another horse falls infront of him or if he breaks down during the race which I would guess is about 1 in 10 then add in the bookies rinse factor =1/12). I would make Kasbah Bliss about an 8/13 chance.
Regards.
Yes I did write 1/6 initially but then changed it for some reason. Quite simply a cert. I hardly ever bet odds on shots but if I can get 1/3 on the day I wouldn't rule out backing him. If I saw a 20/1 shot who I thought should be 10/1 I would back it so why not a 1/3 shot who I feel should be 1/6?!
I wouldn't change his price by much whether Tidal Bay was in the race or not - TB is surely not capable of running anywhere near to 180+ over 2m - simply not fast enough (Arkle was a weak staying race on that Tuesday ground and that was the reason he could hold a position and then outstay them). Not a threat imo
The only other class horse in the race who could give him something to think about or who could possibly force him into a mistake is Tidal Bay, the others are no way near him. I think Tidal Bay would run well into the 170's, realistically I wouldn't expect him to beat Master Minded but if he were to front run, really force the pace and jump well there is a slight chance that Master Minded might second guess at a fence and make a mistake, etc. Without Tidal Bay in the race then I can't see any other horse even asking him a question. One could argue that Well Chief's best form still wouldn't get him near Master Minded, so why would he challenge MM at his age after various setbacks, and the rest are essentially made up of glorified handicappers.
It's funny you mention that 1/3 is actually value, I spoke to my brother (Saintalebe) earlier in the week and I said it is actually value as I would price him up much shorter but what's the point in backing odds on as you won't make much money out of it. I very rarely differ from a maxium 10 point bet (but have made an exception of 20 points Win on Kasbah Bliss at 100/30 antepost as I was/am so confident like you guys) so I ask myself would a 10 point Win on Masterminded at 1/3 be worthwhile? Not really, but then if we think the price is actually good value then we should back him shouldn't we! I generally don't back odds on but I can see why people like Harry Findley get stuck in.
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