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Posted: Sun Apr 22, 2007 3:15 pm Post subject: The Derby Thread 2007
can't remember having seen one, and now that the first of what I see as the big trial has just been run I thought it may be an opportune time to start one.
Thoughts number 1. Why didn't I take Mark Howards advice last October and back Authorized at 66/1...
Thought 2. Will Eagle Mountain get a crack at the Derby, after Macarthur failed to win the Ballysax?...hope he gets a run.
Thought 3. Anton Chekov didn't exactly hammer it home either....but then the Bolger horse brought good form to the race, so it may have been anoverall decent race.
Thought 4. Mores Wells?.....well I've been taking some fairly big prices on a horse called Spanish Harlem and now the form is beginning to look fairly reasonable after Mores Wells wins (and that of Soldier of Fortune). Wonder where he now sits in the Tabor pecking order?
mcarfur failed to win? was he given a race though by heffermen?i watched this round our mothers shouse and had no idea who was who a s the telly was turned down,but the 3rd horse home seemed tenderly handled to me in the closing stages ,and just had a look at the results to find out who it was and it was mcarfur.i would need to see it again when a reply is available on ATR website,but it looked to me though he was given a easy time in the closing stages. _________________ stotsfold going to be special this flat season.
watch out old 'uns, the 3yos are coming to get you!!
I'd say this Ballysax wasn't a bad race at all, and I'd say that O'Brien won't have had them fully wound up for that, with the Derby being the target, but I get the feeling he may not be fast enough for the Derby, but then that "feeling" is based on the enties he's been given later in the season.
Macarthur is in O'Briens Leger team, whereas many of his other mid distance 3yo's are not.
I was surprised to see Eagle Mountain listed too, as I thought the Derby trip may have been pushing it.
Yazamann is the horse i have in mind for The Derby.
Impeccable breeding being by Galileo out of a Storm Cat mare. Lets just hope the mare has not had too much speed influence - if she has, i'd obviously be slightly concerned about him staying. However, with the stamina influences Galileo seems to be giving his prgoeny, i'd thinking he will stay 1m4f.
been looking at a few myself and i did look at yazamaan earlier.whilst pedigree is important,also running in the right races as well as been equally important didnt expect to see yazamaan in the line up in the greeham,although he didnt run in the end,but i dont like the fact that he was even considered for a guiness trial and gosdens comments were in the preview "I've been entering Yazamaan over seven furlongs and a mile and stamina would be the issue with him - he's not guaranteed to stay" _________________ stotsfold going to be special this flat season.
watch out old 'uns, the 3yos are coming to get you!!
Good to see someone else has a feeling about yazamaan. I was really impressed by the way this horse travels which is always a big plus at epsom. im on antepost at a big price. hopefully it will run and win the dante and push for favouritism for the derby!! _________________ Formerly gb3979.
I'm sure the trainer of yazamaan said he was doubtful he'll get the trip !!!
I've gone for a similar sort in proponent. In that both these seem to have won easily in their two year old campaigns at quite a low level and could be anything. I know the trainer of proponent thinks he'll get the trip and is bred for middle distances.
I've also got other interest in Teofilo, MacArthur and eagle mountain.
Yazamann is the horse i have in mind for The Derby.
Impeccable breeding being by Galileo out of a Storm Cat mare. Lets just hope the mare has not had too much speed influence - if she has, i'd obviously be slightly concerned about him staying. However, with the stamina influences Galileo seems to be giving his prgoeny, i'd thinking he will stay 1m4f.
Owl
I am with Owl here, I like Yazamaan. _________________ Weird Al won't be out the 3 in the 2010 RSA Chase.
Great Endeavour will either win the RSA Chase or Mr Pipe will plot him to win the Jewson.
I take it you lot don't subscribe to Mansfield's LDH methodology, as Dickie Hills will be on board Yazamann.
Can be powder puff in a finish, so meeting the rising ground at Epsom he may not be the ideal jock to have on board......whicj brings me onto my question. Was Richard Hughes bumped off Khalid Abdullahs horses or was it just Michael Stoutes?
as reviewing the racing in Ireland today its quite possible that the more likely Derby winner on view at Leopardstown wasn't in the Ballysax
Hughes has been jocked off all Stoutes runners but is still on a retainer for Abdullah. _________________ This is how it feels to be lonely, this is how it feels to be small, this is how it feels when your world means nothing at all.
My only negative about Yazamaan is that clown being in the plate, even though he did win on Eswarah in 2005 _________________ Weird Al won't be out the 3 in the 2010 RSA Chase.
Great Endeavour will either win the RSA Chase or Mr Pipe will plot him to win the Jewson.
i like the look of Authorized i think he has the profile of a derby horse being a late maturing 2 yr old.
I always think a derby horse should have form at 7 furlongs+ at 2 and be good enough to win at least at group 3 level.
Authorized fits this trend well and i think with natural progression he could be the one.
With the doubts surrounding Teofillo i would be little concerned if he run his race in the guineas but if he does hit back to form then he must be feared...
i like the roger charlton horse cant remember the horse begining with p he shapes like a horse who would be suited by middle distances.
cheers _________________ Tazbar = machine up north (wont be beaten over hurdles in scotland)
Aux Le Bahn = serious serious engine
Bible Lord = very well handicapped
Well on the latest of his updates, Nick Mordin seems quite taken about Macarthur. Here's what he's written
"I've been doing a bit of research recently into three year old colts that have just one run at two over and then run a big race over 10 furlongs or more on their seasonal debuts at three - earning a Racing Post rating of 104 or more - or a big speed rating (36+) from me. Most turn out to be Group 1 performers. There have only been a handful in recent years and they've included High-Rise and Galileo, both of whom went on to win the Derby.
The latest qualifier on this interesting angle is MACARTHUR (36) who ran a huge race to finish a close third in the Ballysax Stakes on his seasonal debut. What makes the performance all the more remarkable is that he's trained by Aiden O'Brien whose three year old colts always come on a good deal for their seasonal debuts - especially when they've previously had just the one previous run as is the case with Macarthur.
The winner Mores Wells (37) had the benefit of a previous run and the second Ferneley (37) had five runs as a juvenile, so I don't think they're going to make the improvement that would be needed to develop into Classic contenders. The record of horses like Macarthur and of his trainer though suggest that he will. Therefore I'd be inclined to take a bit of the 12-1 or 14-1 now available about Macarthur's chances at Epsom because I strongly suspect he's going to take the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial next time out."
The Derrinstown could turn out to be a significant event this year.
I dont like this guy mordin - but lets hope he's right this time! Ive taken a stong position on this fella for the derby, i await the derristown anxiously.
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