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The Gold Cup
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three out
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 01, 2008 2:44 pm    Post subject: The Gold Cup Reply with quote

Kauto Star looks to be as capable as ever!

Over to Denman now to prove he is the same...
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 01, 2008 2:46 pm    Post subject: Re: The Gold Cup Reply with quote

three out wrote:
Over to Denman now to prove he is the same...


Well you've got a bit of a wait  
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 01, 2008 3:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I can be patient mate  

You could tell by the smile on Ruby's smile it was the type of performance he can produce - I look forward to a rematch with the big bruiser...
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 19, 2008 9:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Denman did not run in the GC this year

There is some good value in the each way market here, imho.
War of Attrition out to 25/1; Imprial Commander 33/1. Both look decent ew punts and they could well be shorter come the day
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 19, 2008 9:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

geordie_racer wrote:
I wouldn't be at all surprised if Denman did not run in the GC this year
There is some good value in the each way market here, imho.
War of Attrition out to 25/1; Imprial Commander 33/1. Both look decent ew punts and they could well be shorter come the day


They are planning to try and get 2 runs into him to have him spot on before the Gold Cup but reckon one would be enough if it came down to it so unless anything goes wrong he will be there.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 19, 2008 9:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

YAIYAM wrote:
geordie_racer wrote:
I wouldn't be at all surprised if Denman did not run in the GC this year
There is some good value in the each way market here, imho.
War of Attrition out to 25/1; Imprial Commander 33/1. Both look decent ew punts and they could well be shorter come the day


They are planning to try and get 2 runs into him to have him spot on before the Gold Cup but reckon one would be enough if it came down to it so unless anything goes wrong he will be there.


I just think it might come too soon;-
would you honestly say he's more than even money to run?

It's a big ask when he certainly won't run before the new year; and I hope he is spot on because it's not the race to run in if he isn't

but even if he does; something has to get a place!
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 19, 2008 10:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

would you honestly say he's more than even money to run?

from what i have heard yes

but even if he does; something has to get a place!

the 2nd & 3rd from last year if they line up will be 2 so you are betting on the price for others more so on the chance that Denman is not going to turn up rather than there real chance of getting a place.
If the first 3 from last year do all get there then unless another horse does something special before then they are going to be 20/1+ on the day anyway

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 19, 2008 10:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

YAIYAM wrote:
would you honestly say he's more than even money to run?

from what i have heard yes

but even if he does; something has to get a place!

the 2nd & 3rd from last year if they line up will be 2 so you are betting on the price for others more so on the chance that Denman is not going to turn up rather than there real chance of getting a place.
If the first 3 from last year do all get there then unless another horse does something special before then they are going to be 20/1+ on the day anyway

fair enough, but I think Imperial Commander could be open to loads of improvement and what price War of Attrition if he lines up?
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 19, 2008 10:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've been thinking about backing Exotic Dancer TBP for this at around the 7/1 mark or in Hill's 'Without Nicholls' market at 6/1. Some people seem to forget that he is a class act and ran a stormer at Aintree last time. Might do it before this weekend
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 19, 2008 10:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

fair enough, but I think Imperial Commander could be open to loads of improvement

He probably is but it would be better to go with Alansouthcoast's method of AP betting in that if it ran in a graded contest you would probably get decent odds so you could back it and if it won use the winnings at the shorter price as you will generally be better off this way.
As said though if the first 3 from last year are all there come March IC price is not going to be that much shorter than it is now so you would be taking the larger price now in hope horses do not run
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 22, 2008 9:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In the GC market I've backed Exotic Dancer E/W @ 33/1 (Bet365) and to WIN without Nicholls @ 6/1 (Hills).

I think he'll at least run KS close today and contract. 33/1 is an insult when you consider that he ran a stormer at Aintree in the Old Roan, Denman isn't even certain to line up, and Kauto still has to conclusively prove that he is the same as last year (He probably is but his win last time proved little in hindsight). As for the 6/1 without Nicholls can we really be sure that there is another non-Nicholls stsying chaser that can definitely run RPRs around the 180 mark? No. 6/1? Yes please
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 22, 2008 2:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was rather hoping to bet Denman on Boxing Day after Kauto had won the Betfair and the King George. That went well.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 24, 2008 8:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

YAIYAM wrote:
£5 Win on Aran Concerto @ 249/1 (Gold Cup) - Week 7


Come on YY, your getting a bit carried away now arent you    
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 24, 2008 9:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

shamardal84 wrote:
YAIYAM wrote:
£5 Win on Aran Concerto @ 249/1 (Gold Cup) - Week 7


Come on YY, your getting a bit carried away now arent you    


4 or 5 years from now people will be saying how much weight do you think Aran Concerto could have given Denman and still beat him in a Gold Cup.    
Its not a coincidence that the first 2 letters of his name are the same as another horse from the past Ar...  

In all seriosnous i was looking at the Gold Cup betting earlier and even though from what i have been told Denman will be at Cheltenham come March(bar any other set back), Kauto Star is obviously having problems, the 3rd favourite must have soft ground, Exoctic Dancer needs to put in at least one really good run and then all the rest are decent handicappers.
If however Denman does not make it, Kauto Star still not back to his best & Excotic Dancer has not put in that one run then i can see some trainers or owners thinking maybe its worth having a go with a really good novice
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 24, 2008 9:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree with YY here. I can`t see any previous runners in a Gold Cup beating Denman or Kauto Star. If either is fully fit they will win in much, unless a novice comes out of the pack. To my mind Kauto slipped on saturday and would have won if he hadnt. I fancy Tidal Bay to run a good race, especially as he loves HQ.



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