forum.sports-pro.co.uk

jayfle · Group Performer Joined: 06 Jul 2007 Posts: 1078

Skybet Chase, 27th January, 3 miles

According To Pete: Been winning ‘soft’ novice chases in my opinion. His jumping has not been put under anywhere near the pressure it will be put under on Saturday and he is not an overly big horse so carrying 11-10 in soft conditions is also a worry. Whilst the winning the Betfair hurdle off 132 was impressive, the form is not so. Souffleur had top weight and is badly handicapped in my opinion and Alderburn posted by far a career best to finish 3rd. The brush hurdles suit him better than fences and I think the pressure his jumping will be put under and also his new mark of 145 will make this race beyond him, although he will like the ground.

Big Fella Thanks: Why this one is near the head of the market is behind me. He has won two novice hurdles around small tracks, and then found a mark of 130 beyond him in handicap hurdle at Ayr. His chase form has been indifferent, encouraging start at Chepstow was followed by a one paced effort behind Ballyfitz. He lost at ¼ to Itsa Legend at Taunton who himself is quirky, also looked held when falling at Kempton off 136. All in all he looks quirky one paced and simply doesn’t have the form to figure for me.

Possol: Like this horse a lot, backed him at Haydock when he beat Mon Mome by a short head off 134. Now that looks very solid form indeed, achieved an RPR of 148. He then clashed with Mon Mome a few weeks later at Cheltenham off 143, he finished 3rd on this occasion (Mon Mome won) beaten 19 lenghts but he jumped very poorly, from memory he made about 4 to 5 mistakes including one early on which lost him his place, basically I think considering how he jumped he did very well to finish 3rd. It also showed that he stays 3 miles well and I believe he is progressing and well have the race run to suit.

Alexanderthegreat: Had his chance last race at Cheltenham off 123. Now racing off 128, this is a stronger race and he is not getting any younger.
Laskari: Seems to be a few pounds better around Kempton. 13lbs higher than his last winning mark, not totally ruled out as he has solid handicap form but I think others are better handicapped an French bred at 10 years old means progression is far from guaranteed.
Ungaro: Tough honest horse, who seems to like Doncaster. Second last year off 143 now on 145, concerns are he seems to need proper good ground to be at his best and off his current mark there isn’t any room for error.

Battlecry: Strongly believe this horse doesn’t stay 3 miles. He is a very tame finisher too, doesn’t find much off the bridle at all. I think he will travel well but will ‘tire’ late on.

Alderburn: Another horse that needs proper good ground. Also always seems to hit a flat spot during his races, getting outpaced at a crucial time. The long straight will help him, but with concerns over the ground and his mark of 140 being beyond him am happy to pass him over.

Noir Et Vert: Now a few of us consider this horse to be very well handicapped. I know that Saint Alebe and TTT believe so along with me he is being plotted to win a big staying handicap chase. So he is off interest especially with Ferdy Murphy coming into form but there are a couple of doubts. The first is that’s he seems to prefer genuine ‘good’ ground and also is he being plotted for a later date, i.e Eider or Kim Muir? If the money comes he will be of strong interest though.

Hot Weld: Strong preference for fast ground, will need the run too.

Flying Enterprise: Has bits and pieces of interesting form but hasn’t run since the Will Hill chase at the festival and will need the run.

Fier Normand: Stayed on behind Stan LTO at Cheltenham up a pound for that performance. Has never won off this mark and don’t see why he is going to start now.

Montgermont: Loves soft ground stays the trip well too. Has been running over too short a trips for his for his first two starts then unseated at the first in the Peter Marsh. Would have a chance if bringing his A-game but his jumping frailties make him easy to pass over.

Aleron: Has always been well held off 123, up in class and no chance in my opinion.

Verasi: Totally out of form but if back to his best would be interesting.

This leaves Crozan, Lysander, Always Waining, Billyvoddan, Irish Raptor, My Immortal and You’re Special. They are a bunch of badly handicapped out of form horses and would be very disappointed if they were up to winning this.

Conclusion: The race looks like a handful of progressive horses against a bunch of badly handicapped horses. There isn’t a horse in the race excluding Noir Et Vert that is well handicapped on previous form so am going to look for the most progressive horse in the race. So Possol, is my idea of the winner. His win at Haydock he achieved a RPR of 148 so off 143 there looks room for error. With a large field there will be a strong pace enabling him to settle and hopefully on a flatter track he will get into a jumping rhythm and close down the long straight that Donny has. According To Pete I think may just be weighted out of this as I don’t think he deserves his rating of 145. Noir Et Vert, especially if the money came will be my e/w play.

100pt Start Bank

Selections:
Possol 2pts e/w at 9/1 Bet 365.
Noir Et Vert 1pt e/w 20/1 Skybet