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Posted: Tue May 01, 2007 11:13 pm Post subject: The Vodafone Oaks 2007
With the exception of Passage Of Time, it doesn't look massively hot at the moment.
The one I like is All My Loving, a maiden winner of Aiden O'Brien. A full sister to Group 1 winners Yesterday and Quarter Moon, she really, really impressed me, making all and just pulling out a bit more as challenges came from all angles and she won cosily in the end. The step up to 1m4 (maiden was 10f) is really expected to suit according to AOB, and it did look like the further she went the better she looked. It was a decent ground maiden also, so no worries there. This was a few weeks ago, when it seemed (as vaguely as I was following them) that AOB's maidens were really quite needing the run- Mahler for instance, who went on to win his 2nd start. This only enhances what a decent effort it was. Judging by the fact that all except 2 of the horses she bea tthat day have Irish Oaks, English Oaks, or both entries suggests it was a decent affair.
While 16's is probably about right, there are certainly worse 16/1 shots, and I like this one a lot.
Anyone else have any views? _________________ Some people (fools) said Katchit couldn't win the Champion Hurdle.
I must admit I've been burnt on the ante-post market for the Oaks countless times. It must be the one of the hardest markets to play.
This year I haven't placed any bets but had been considering Simply Perfect, however I think I'll wait untill I've seen her run in the guineas before I put money down I'm not sure about the fillies mile form lines at the moment.
I've placed my first AP bet on Dalvina for the oaks mightly impressed me yesterday.
I nearly put one on Simply Perfect but I had a second look at the breeding and wasn't sure if she'd get the trip. Can anyone spread any light on if she will or not ? _________________ Tricky Trickster - Grand National Winner 2010
Trainer: J Noseda Owner: D Smith, M Tabor & Mrs J Magnier
Breeder: Trehedyn Stud And Quarry Bloodstock
Danehill(USA) (9.0f) - Hotelgenie Dot Com (Selkirk (USA)(8.6f))
(220,000gns) 2nd foal; dam Group 1-placed over 7f at 2 & 7f winner on juvenile debut, half-sister to top-class 7f juvenile winner Bianca Nera, later dam of smart juvenile Pietra Dura, family of smart sprinting juvenile Great Deeds
dosage index
SIMPLY PERFECT (GB) gr. F, 2004 DP = 4-5-16-0-1 (26) DI = 1.89 CD = 0.42
not a great deal of confidence really.the bold section is the stanima points.her dam failed to get beyond 1 mile that well. _________________ stotsfold going to be special this flat season.
watch out old 'uns, the 3yos are coming to get you!!
They told me in Coolmore last week that none of the O' Brien fillys
were any good for what its worth. _________________ Life is what happens while you're busy making plans.
I am with Dalvina for this and have been in the ante-post market for a while. There is so much to like about her. Obviously Passage of Time is the big danger and she has done nothing wrong although perhaps idled a bit last time whereas Dalvina was a professional.
I was encouraged to see Peslier approached for the steering job on Dalvina - that is a good move and I am sure the yard are extremely confident in him.
For me the Oaks has the shape of a really good race - better than the Derby. _________________ One way to stop a runaway horse is to bet on him.
Yes Threeout I agree mate, I think the two front fillies could be very good and that the derby looks weak, always a sign when O'Brien has no idea what to run in it and has been changing his mind a lot recently. I really like Passage of Time as you know and I think it will take a very good one to beat her. She did idlw last time but she was a little rusty and I think there is still massive improvement in her. She is a lovely looking fily aswell, very scopey and a large head. I maybe wrong but I think she will win easy.
Well if you are right David fair play - I know you are on. I agree about her scope and she is sure to be better for the trip in my opinion. If they had raced another two furlongs she would have still won well. O'Brien seems to have little going for his stable this year - surprising really. I wonder whether he will be winning Irish and Eurpoean races later in the season but it is hard to pick out anything at this stage. _________________ One way to stop a runaway horse is to bet on him.
Interesting race - the final declarations will reveal what i need to find out.
Agree with Joe, ALL MY LOVING is a horse to follow, but maybe for the Irish St Leger - that could have been her 'proper' race target since last year.
But if she is O'Brien's only entry in the English Oaks then that would be interesting.
There are only 4 horses who i could see winning the race.
Passage of Time
All My Loving
Four Sins (may not run)
Measured Tempo
I can't see Dalvini and/or Simply Perfect staying the trip.
More knowledgeable people than me were touting Macarthur.
I don't believe it was fully fit in the Derrinstown.
Measured Tempo looks the best alternative to Passage Of Time
for value in the oaks.
O'Brien seems to have little going for his stable this year - surprising really.
apart from dylan thomas, yeats and george washington. astronomer royal french guineas winner and we haven't even had the irish guineas yet which he has a good chance of taking.
admiralofthefleet and archipenko are right there in the derby picture imo if authorized cannot handle epsom.
he seems to have plenty going for his stable i would say.
but i know what you mean though, he doesn't seem to have any real superstar 3 yo this year, and we probably haven't seen his best 2 yo yet, although achilles of troy will turn out very decent no doubt about that.
anyway, to the oaks.
i thought passage of time was very impressive at york, she looks very clever and seemed to have plenty left in the tank when crossing the line, i doubt she was really tested that day.
i didn't really think she was physically impressive though, maybe it was the crap will hill tv i was watching the race on but to me it looked like she has only grown upwards and hasn't filled out much at all, she looked like a leggy size zero to me.
i would love to see dalvina win now, just from a personal perspective as i was watching her win at newmarket standing next to ed dunlop, if dalvina goes on to be a superstar like a certain other dunlop filly then that memory will live with me forever.
funnily enough, dalvina won the pretty polly by exactly the same distance that ouija board had won the race by, and of course ouijas next win was the oaks, can history be repeating itself?
the race is between these two and four sins possibly imo.
i have no idea what has happened to uimhir a haon, a good friend of mine who occasionaly gets told of highly thought of horses was told about her early in the year, she was supposedly going to be at least as good as alexandrova. she must have been decent as she was still trading at 25's after all the trials were over and she hadn't even run in any of them, so i was a bit mythed when she was pulled out, ive lost a few quid AP on her so i'll be looking to recoup my losses on DALVINA _________________ Is ready to hibernate
I'm surprised that Uimhir a hoan was pulled out too. I can only assume that something is amiss....Finsceal Beo was confidently pulled from the race, as she was a good replacement.
Of the remaining field, O'Briens All My Loving still looks well overpriced at 14/1, and I can't see her being out of the places.
Richard Hughes, "the master of Epsom", will be on board Passage of Time, so this may be a more open race for the better quality horses than the percieved superiority of Cecil's horse may imply
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