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Posted: Sun Jan 25, 2009 7:18 pm Post subject: Yaiyam's Grand Annual Race Preview 2009
I did this race last year so am going to use all of last years STATS and also add last years winners to make it 11 year trends and for overall purposes for this years Initial preview.
Age
1x5YO
1x6YO
5x7YO
4x8YO
4x9YO
2x10YO
1x12YO
In the last 10 years 7/11 winners have been aged 7 to 9
Weight
4 horses have won from out of the handicap
10 horses carried less than 11 stone
4 horses carried more than 11 stone
8/10 horses in the last 10 runnings were carrying less than 11 stone with 2 of those out of the handicap
Price
14 were priced @ less than 10/1
1 horse was 12/1
3 horses were 20/1 +
7/10 horses in the last 10 runnings were less than 10/1 with 3 of them being favourites
Ratings
2 horses were rated under 125
12 were rated between 130 & 140
3 horses between 140 & 150
1 horse rated over 150
7/10 in the last 10 runnings were rated between 130 & 140
Form
12 horses finished in the first 3 on there previous run
3 horses were 4th or 5th
1 Fell & 1 was PU
7/11 in the last 10 runnings finished in the first 3
(Tiger Cry finished 3rd on his last chase run)
Prep Run
11 competed in Chases
4 competed in hurdle races
3 competed in Novice Chases
In the last 10 years only 4 had completed in chases the other 6 were split between Novice Chases & hurdle races
Time of last run
16 ran after the 1st of February as there prep run
1 raced in January
1 raced in December
Even though last years winner did not qualify on the age catergory and he finished 6th on his last run before the race(3rd in a chase) he made all the other popular Stats which gave hime 5 from 7 ticks.
As the stats suggest the winner generally has its last run after the 1st Feb so will look out for potential winners of this race over the next month adding any significant runnings to this thread. _________________ Forest are Treemendous
Just a few extra words on this because as the Stats point out only 1 horse ran its last race before going on to win the Grand Annual before february 1st. However as 2 of the meetings where 1 of the horses had its prep run was at Sandown which happened to fall on Jan 31st i am going to Include that days racing especially as Cheltenham itself is a little earlier than usual.
So this update is to put up 2 horses that could possibly go for this race that would fall within most if not all the Stats that ran well last weekend and they are Nikola who ran 2nd @ Sandown off a mark of 123 having now been put upto 125, this really is as low a rating as you would possibly want to win a Grand Annual so the other horse Clew Bay Cove who ran 3rd behind I'msingingtheblues off 139 would probably rate a greater danger of winning this race than Nikola at this time. CBC seem to be held near the back then when the pace quickened seemed to get a bit caught out coming round the last bend back in 7th/8th position he did then without really troubling the leaders stay on to very good effect to take 3rd. Now you can read into his performance in different ways,
1. 2miles may just be to short and he may not have the pace
2. They may have wanted to see what he could do off his current British mark and left a bit to work with giving him a good chance for the Grand Annual.
3. The stiff finish at Cheltenham may be enough for this horse to get to the front over this trip rather than a flat track like Doncaster.
Anyway my first recomendation for this race is to take an opening price for CLEW BAY COVE when the entries come in, If he is entered & when the race is priced up by at least 3/4 bookmakers. _________________ Forest are Treemendous
A quick update after todays entries using the main STATS of
1. Finished 3 last time out (could change If horses run again)
2. Ran after 31st Jan (again can change if horses run)
3. Age
4. Rating (estimate for the Irish runners)
STATS on price obviously cannot come into it at the moment also the points pointed out in the brackets may change but as of today with the entries in the STATS pick out 4 horses.
1. Baby Run- N A Twiston Davis
2. Clew Bay Cove- C A Murphy
3. Northern Alliance- A J Martin
4. Psychomondo- B G Powell
Out of these 4 Northern Alliance even though a STAT qualifier does not really have the profile of a Grand Annual winner so will wait and see with this one what happens as my gut feeling is he will not line up anyway. _________________ Forest are Treemendous
I've had my eye on Poquelin for Cheltenham, and although I'd like to see him have a crack at the Arkle...it appears that Tatenen stands in his way.
So if Nicholls is to be believed then Poquelin isn't the horse I thought he might be.....but I think Nicholls is wrong. For me the ride that Ruby Walsh gave Poquelin to win back in October remains the ride of the season. Unfortunately the handicapper has also taken a view that the horse was better than the 1/2 length win it acheived. On 142 he still looks potentially handy.
Andreas is likely to be used as the anchor for the race, so off his rating of 156 we could see 130 horses getting into the handicap proper.
Since the advent of a 4 day festival this race seems to have taken a bit of a hit. I wasn't fully subscribed last year as a max field didn't take part.
On the basis of that I'm tempted by a horse that was beaten by Poquelin. Alan King's Oh Crick.
Sifting through the field there's no ex top notch hurdlers that have taken up chasing in the past year to worry about, so the card should essentially be filled with exposed types.
Poquelin apart, Oh Crick stands out as he hadn't seemed to stop improving over hurdles, so its likely the horse is much better than his ratings appear. He'll be running from just out of the handicap, but he now has a pull in the weights with Poquelin....a 12lb one!
He's the unexposed 6yo that I'm looking for.
Hope the bookies are generous, and we see plenty of defections as he'll need nearly 25 to pull out....though quite possible as only 17 lined up last year for a race with a max field of 24
Oh Crick. has way to much going against it for a race like the Grand Annual.
Only 1 6YO has won it in the last 18 runnings.
Only 2 horses rated under 130 have won it in the last 18 runnings.
Only 3 Novices have won it in the last 18 runnings. _________________ Forest are Treemendous
Oh Crick. has way to much going against it for a race like the Grand Annual.
Only 1 6YO has won it in the last 18 runnings.
Only 2 horses rated under 130 have won it in the last 18 runnings.
Only 3 Novices have won it in the last 18 runnings.
it appears that the bookies would agree with you Yaiyam, as Corals have opened up with 25's.
If the other bookies go 33's or higher, I'll be really gutted.
An update before the 5 day decs go in which really is to say that for anyone who has not placed a bet already on Clew Bay Cove to take the 20/1 with Hills for NRNB best odds guaranteed.
With probably every runner having had its last race before this race the only Stat that is really outstanding is the 10/1< one which i now believe Clew Bay Cove will make, my reasoning for this is that the other fancied runners of JP's Perce Rock, Kia Khia & Crocodiles Rock have drifted badly on Betfair 60.0, 74.0 & 48.0 respectively suggesting that possibly only Crocodiles Rock (25/1 with bookies) might be another of his runners.
If this is the case then possibly AP will be on board Clew Bay Cove which again will bring his price in further, another reson is that if I'msingingtheblues puts up a good display in the Arkle(anything in the first 4 would be goodenough) then Clew Bay Cove's run at Doncaster where it was recieving 8lbs from that horse would look all the better.
They suggest that Clew Bay Cove may need soft ground to bring his stamina into play my personal opinion is the hill itself will help this horse and its only course run was a 5th in Missed That's bumper on good ground.
2nd recommendation CLEW BAY COVE @ 20/1 1/4 first 4 NRNB _________________ Forest are Treemendous
Thats a good boost to get Clew Bay Cove's price down, Alister Down named Clew Bay Cove as his bet of the festival and is now already 16/1 best price (VC 20/1 on oddschecker but do not trust there advertising) _________________ Forest are Treemendous
Thanks to you Yaiyam, got 20s e/w on Clew Bay Cove before the Fat Al intervention!
I can honestly see this horse going off 7 or 8/1 especially if AP gets the ride.
This Interesting thing for me to why "Fat Al" chose this horse is that he had been to Colm Murphy's stable to do his little piece on Brave Inca, so was it Murphy who told him he thinks he could have a reasonable chance or was it his last run where it was miles off the pace and stayed on to get a very decent 3rd at Doncaster behind Imsingingtheblues. _________________ Forest are Treemendous
What do you make of Planet of Sound for this race, YY?
I know his main target is the Arkle, but I get the feeling that Hobbs will declare him a non runner should the rain come that's forecast.
I would say his rating of 150 is to high for a race like this as the Stats point out(only 1 winner in last 18 runnings) and can only see him running in this if he has an early mishap in the Arkle or like you say the ground gets really soft which to be honest I cannot see.
Everything really does point towards Clew Bay Cove who is now only 14/1 best price and even that I think will be gone by the end of today possibly tomorrow and will be a single figure price even possibly favourite come the off _________________ Forest are Treemendous
Just to let anyone know who has followed me in on this horse AP has taken the ride so I cannot see the 12/1 lasting too much longer.
IMsingingtheblues ran well enough in the Arkle to suggest this horse does have a good chance, lets Just hope he can stay within challenging distance with 2 to Jump
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