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Posted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 1:27 pm Post subject: accajacca's football punts 2009/2010
Afternoon all.
I had started a thread a while ago in the sub forum on which I was going to win or lose £2,000 with football bets over the course of the thread. It was a few quid up I think, but a.) I don’t know where the thread has gone, and b.) with the new season starting it makes sense to start from scratch as a new challenge.
So, a few thread rules:
I will be backing all selections in the “real world” to the stakes stated herein. Most bets will range between £20 and £50. Confident bets will be up to £100, and super confident bets at prices that I think are completely wrong will get a MAX BET of £200. This will be rare.
I will run the thread until I have made or lost £2,000, or until the end of the season.
Most weeks will be a number of win singles, often with a small accumulator on top to try and accelerate our way to the £2,000 mark.
I will use bookmakers’ prices as well as Betdaq’s.
So, without further mumbling, on to the first week.
Win singles on Betdaq (I have just opened an account with them partly for the purpose of this exercise):
Blackburn vs Man City – MAN CITY WIN – £25 @ 2.25
Portsmouth vs Fulham – FULHAM WIN - £25 @ 3.05
Wolves vs West Ham – WEST HAM WIN - £30 @ 2.96
Tottenham vs Liverpool – LIVERPOOL WIN - £20 @ 2.26
Also, using Bet365 and the prices; 6/5, 15/8, 8/5 and 6/5 respectively, I have done £4 trebles and a £4 accumulator, meaning an additional investment of £20.
Typical spurs to put in a performance like that when i've bet on the opposition...
Liverpool were toothless and as i keep saying, won't be winning the league this season.
Quick round up of results;
Bet 1: Blackburn vs MAN CITY - £25 @ 2.25 - WON = + £29.69
Bet 2: Portsmouth vs FULHAM - £25 @ 3.05 - WON = + £48.69
Bet 3: Wolves vs WEST HAM - £30 @ 2.96 - WON = + £55.86
Bet 4: Tottenham vs LIVERPOOL - £20 @ 2.26 - LOST = - £20
Multiple of Bets 1/2/3/4: £20 staked, £65.78 returned = + £45.78
Total P&L after 4 bets = + £160.02
Running analysis of Single bets(*):
Average Size so far: £25
Average Price so far: 2.63
Strike Rate so far: 75%
Average Return Per Bet so far: +114.24%
* I'm going to keep this running for my own interest, apologies if it's boring. it's completely meaningless after 4 bets anyway so feel free to ignore fo the time being
Midweek bets coming up shortly...
AJ
Last edited by accajacca on Mon Aug 17, 2009 8:30 am; edited 1 time in total
Bet 5: Sunderland vs CHELSEA - £75 @ 1.56 – WON = + £39.90
Bet 6: WIGAN vs Wolves - £40 @ 1.78 – LOST = - £40
Bet 7: Hull vs TOTTENHAM - £30 @ 2.05 – WON = + £29.93
Multiple Bet 18th August (Chelsea/Wigan/Tottenham) - LOST = - £15
Multiple Bet 19th August (Tottenham/Man Utd/Newcastle/Liverpool) – LOST = - £20.
Total midweek p&l = - £5.17.
So;
Total P&L on single bets after 7 bets: + £144.07
Total P&L on multiple bets after 3 bets*: + £10.78
Total P&L: + £154.85
* For the purpose of this exercise I am going to count group multiples – eg trebles from 4 as one bet to keep things simple.
Running analysis of single bets:
Average size so far: £35
Average price so far: 2.27**
Strike Rate so far: 71.4%
Average return per bet so far: +58.8%
** Maybe I should weight this by the amount bet at each price. Or maybe not. I’m not sure.
Disappointed that Man U failed to do the business as that would have given us a nice little boost. Never mind, a profit is a profit. Onwards and upwards.
Cheers
AJ
Last edited by accajacca on Mon Aug 24, 2009 5:54 pm; edited 3 times in total
Bet 8: SUNDERLAND vs Blackburn - £25 @ 2.16 - WON = + £27.55
Bet 9: West Ham vs TOTTENHAM - £25 @ 2.41 - WON = + £33.49
Bet 10: Burnley vs EVERTON - £25 @ 2.26 - LOST = - £25
Multiple Bet 22/23rd August - PARTIAL WIN = + £7.04
So;
Total P&L on Single bets after 10 bets: + £180.11
Total P&L on multiple bets: + £17.82
Total P&L: + £197.93
Running Analysis of single bets:
Average size so far: £32
Mean Average price so far: 2.27
Average price so far weighted by bet size: 2.15
Strike rate so far: 70%
Average return per bet so far: +56.3%
Everton let us down for a great weekend and I'd be about £270 richer if they'd won. Two weeks in a row Burnley have beaten established premiership teams to cost us a good return - both times having conceded a penalty that our team missed. I'll be keen to take them on as the season progresses, but it might be time to give them their dues at the moment. We'll see...
I can feel a good weekend coming soon. Fingers crossed...
AJ
Last edited by accajacca on Wed Sep 02, 2009 7:18 am; edited 2 times in total
Bet 11: Norwich vs Sunderland - Sunderland WIN - £50 @ 2.03
Bet 12: Gillingham vs Blackburn - Blackburn WIN - £30 @ 1.83
Midweek multiple: £20 Double of the above using the prices 10/11 and 4/5 at Bet 365.
£100 Bet.
Sunderland look good, and their strikers will have goals in them against weak opposition. As far as Blackburn go, I saw a recent interview with Big Sam where he said his aim for this season was a good cup run and that they would be trying their best in the Carling Cup. I don't much like his style of football, but you won't see one of his sides pushed around by a lower league team, and I think he'll have them up for it.
NOTE: I realised I hadn't counted the £20 I lost on the accumulator on August 19th in my overall P&L, so I've gone back and added that in, so all the numbers should all be right. If anyone's actually reading this and spots any errors please let me know as I am trying to keep it as accurate as possible for my own benefit (I want a whole season's track record all in one place).
Good results the last couple of days and we are starting to tick along...
Update:
Bet 11: Norwich vs SUNDERLAND - £50 @ 2.03 - WON = + £48.93
Bet 12: Gillingham vs BLACKBURN - £30 @ 1.83 - WON = + £23.66
Multiple Bet 24/25th August - WON = + £48.73
So;
Total P&L on Single bets after 12 bets: + £252.70
Total P&L on multiple bets: + £66.55
Total P&L: + £319.25
Running Analysis of single bets:
Average size so far: £33.33
Mean Average price so far: 2.21
Average price so far weighted by bet size: 2.11
Strike rate so far: 75%
Average return per bet so far: +63.2%
Long may it continue.
AJ
Last edited by accajacca on Wed Sep 02, 2009 7:22 am; edited 1 time in total
I'm off to Switzerland this weekend to visit my brother and moan about how expensive the beer is, so i've had an early look for the premiership games.
I'm sorely tempted to lay Liverpool away to a physical Bolton side, and think Villa are too short against Fulham as well. However, I'm not convinced by either match as a betting prospect, so I'm going to keep it simple and have a bet on Sunderland, who have treated me well so far, away to Stoke, who contrived to make Liverpool look like a good football team recently...
Bet 13: Stoke vs Sunderland - Sunderland WIN - £25 @ 3.35
I'm off to Switzerland this weekend to visit my brother and moan about how expensive the beer is, so i've had an early look for the premiership games.
I'm sorely tempted to lay Liverpool away to a physical Bolton side, and think Villa are too short against Fulham as well. However, I'm not convinced by either match as a betting prospect, so I'm going to keep it simple and have a bet on Sunderland, who have treated me well so far, away to Stoke, who contrived to make Liverpool look like a good football team recently...
Bet 13: Stoke vs Sunderland - Sunderland WIN - £25 @ 3.35
Good luck, and have a good weekend.
AJ
For some reason I didn't look at the Portsmouth vs Man City game - I was expecting City to be 1.4-1.5 - but they're not, they're 1.64, so in we go;
Bet 14: Portsmouth vs Man City - Man City WIN - £50 @ 1.64
Weekend Multiple:
Using Bet365...
£15 Treble: Sunderland (11/5) & Man City (4/7) & Tottenham (4/11)
Bet 13: Stoke vs SUNDERLAND - £25 @ 3.35 - LOST = - £25
Bet 14: Portsmouth vs MAN CITY - £50 @ 1.64 - WON = + £30.40
Multiple Bet 29/30th August - PARTIAL WIN = + £19.29
So;
Total P&L on Single bets after 14 bets: + £258.10
Total P&L on multiple bets: + £85.84
Total P&L: + £343.94
Running Analysis of single bets:
Average size so far: £33.93
Mean Average price so far: 2.25
Average price so far weighted by bet size: 2.13
Strike rate so far: 71.42%
Average return per bet so far: +54.33%
Probably no bets for the next couple of weeks, so until then, be lucky.
Bet 15: Birmingham vs VILLA - £25 @ 2.29 - WON = + £30.64
So;
Total P&L on Single bets after 15 bets: + £288.74
Total P&L on multiple bets: + £85.84
Total P&L: + £374.58
Running Analysis of single bets:
Average size so far: £33.33
Mean Average price so far: 2.25
Average price so far weighted by bet size: 2.14
Strike rate so far: 73.33%
Average return per bet so far: +57.75%
hopefully a few more bets this weekend...
cheers
AJ
Last edited by accajacca on Mon Sep 21, 2009 12:47 pm; edited 1 time in total
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), £120 staked.
