pericolo topo
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17th October 2009. Champion's dayThis is always a big day for me and Mrs PT and a great day of racing. No sleep tonight.
The plan tomorrow is to get to Newmarket town early and have a wander around the Palace House equine art exhibition (maybe buy a nice picture if we see one.....). After this off for some breakfast in the cracking cafe opposite the clock tower then off to the course.
Current thinking....
1:50. Looks wide open with some ok group 2 & 3 performers and apparently revolves around whether Main Aim's excuses are valid. I'm not sure he'll be suited by 7F here anyway. I like Summer Fete at 25-1, she is closely rated with Ashram who is currently 4-1 (!!!!!) on their defeat by The Cheka. This race often goes to big priced fillies and 25-1 looks a truly HUGE price.
2:25. Plenty of class here, Steinbeck is nicely making the market and I have Chabal at 5/2 from earlier in the week. The plan on course is to back Xtension E/W quite heavily. Still a baby early in the year and still managed to win well in the Vintage, a race with a great record in this.
3:00. Fascinating race and with a few group 1 winners in looks rather stronger than I was expecting. Honestly I'm not sure what to do yet but Mawatheeq was my selection earlier in the week. I hope to see his previous run at the Rowley mile because R Hills said he didn't handle the dip. Also against him is that winners tend to have seen Group 1 company. The preference is for Sariska, taking a chance that her defeat by Dar Re Mi (not in itself a very bad thing) was an off day.
3:40. See Cesarewitch post. Woolfall Treasure and Aaim to Prosper. The latter looks a very good price at 50/1 and I'm just hoping neither gets pricewised.
4:15. I love Tabassum but she is pretty short; the big worry is that she's a bit of a head case. If she plays up I'll be going for Bint Doyen, currently priced 33/1. How many times will people let Sir Clive's 2YO fillies go off at such a price. She's bred for up to a mile so she should go well enough.
4:50 Crystal Capella She won this last year and while it might be close she travelled really well at Longchamp and would have placed easily enough had she not had a troubled run. That form after a break and her defeat of Dar Re Mi (one of the few fillies to beat her) is very solid. BIG bet.
5:25 Blue Bajan defected into this from the Cesarewitch and looks a pretty nice price to me. The others look Listed/group 3 class yet this chap has run well in group 2s on the flat and has high class hurdling form. I was a bit worried about him staying this far on the flat but his dam has had progeny who have gone further by sires with lower Stamina Indices. The only one I'm worried about it Urban Poet who could be unexposed. Oh the irony if Frankie wins on BB.
I'll try and get some photos, hopefully the light'll be good.
Just remember, don't be fooled by how warm it seems at home.... if you're going dress for winter!
Good luck
PT
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lenahan
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One of the boards Favourites (tounge in cheek) Starluck is out in the first at Cheltenham tommoro 205pm. Will he get up the hill first against this grade of opposition ? To be fair his Triumph Hurdle run was still pretty good and he should be winning tommoro. Shade of Odds On looks more than fair to me but im not sure i want to back him or include him in any multiples. Hmmmm one to ponder
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lochsong
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Are the Scoop6 selections the races aired by C4 ?
If that woman last week can win 62k for the places then I fancy me chances this week. 
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lochsong
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Nevermind, RP have them listed on line.
Tough lineup.
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lochsong
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Have a nice day PT.
I'm not going to jinx your Ces selections by backing them.
However, if yours smacks mine on the nose with his whip....
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racingcrazy
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C P Lemaire for the champion stakes, Steinback for the dewhurst
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Owl of Minerva
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2.25: Chabal - £80 WIN @ 15/8 (Totesport), £20 WIN @ 2/1 (Betfred)
3.00: Never On Sunday - £50 E/W @ 8/1 (1/4-1,2,3: Bet365)
3.40: Alanbrooke - £25 WIN @ 20/1 (Sportingbet)
Also have a few horses covered on Betfair; Darley Sun, Sweetheart, Highland Legacy, Enjoy the Moment
4.50: Crystal Capella - £100 WIN @ 2/1 (Stan James)
Lucky 15 - £2 WIN [£30] (Main Aim 11/2, NoS 7/1, Private Be 5/1, Darley Sun 7/1: Betfred)
Canadian International: Buccelatti - £50 WIN @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes)
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falbrav4ever
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Here's a value bet where the price will go in the next few minutes...
Viper is 40-1 (5 places) for the Ces with Stan James.
The price is not only shorter than that on the BF win market, there is currently 566 quid queued up at 7.8 for 4 places.
Get as much of the 40s as you can!
Falbrav
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falbrav4ever
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Apart from Viper the other horse that I think is a bit of value in the Ces is Bulwark at 100-1.
He's a hugely unreliable conveyance as wo runs in the summer at Ascot have shown. The weight conditions of the Queen Alexandra favoured him yet he chucked in the towel. However, he ran a much better race in the Shergar Cup staying on with real purpose with the line coming too soon and preventing him from snatching a place having been in an almost hopeless position at the top of the straight.
He's 7 lbs lower than last year's Chester Cup win and will make the frame if he feels like it.
Falbrav
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falbrav4ever
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Another price that won't last Xtension in the Dewhurst 15-2 (1/4 odds) with Stan James.
Had to pull around the entire field at Goodwood having got stuck on the inner but won pulling away.
Dry night at Newmarket and going slightly on the fast side is all in his favour.
Falbrav
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millsy
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Also off to Newmarket today, been looking forward to it for ages! Have a good day PT and anyone else who's making the trip.
Still undecided on a lot of the races but fancy Cuis Ghaire in the first - well rested after unsuitable ground in the Irish 1000, the run in 2nd behind Ghanaati at HQ earlier in the year is as good a bit of form as anything else in the race for me.
4.15 I'm going with Champagnelifestyle e/w, the form of the maiden win hasn't worked out too badly and having beaten one of the same horses Tabassum did I wouldn't be surprised to see Champagnelifestyle get pretty close.
Last race having been stepped up in trip to win last out I think Urban Poet can follow up, each way bet to nothing anyway.
Good luck whatever you pick today anyway! Just hope I can beat the other half's "nice name/pretty colours" strategy, will report back after...
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Hampton
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Newmarket:
Asuram - 1.50 Looks the best of these on form but as you know that can go out of the window at this time of year.
Silver Grecian - 2.25 Has improved no end for his small stable & may be good enough to continue in this.
Mawatheeq - 3.00 With doubts about the ground for the first two in the betting this may well go to Mawatheeq. Looked pretty impresive when winning at Ascot showing a nice change of gear to go clear.
Swingkeel - 3.40 Looks to have a great chance in this. Has been prepared nicely & will go close.
Ashalanda - 4.50 Outstanding chance on it's form over the year & should win.
Akmal - 5.25 On a winning run & looks to add to it today.
Cheltenham:
Billie Magern - 2.05 Showed great heart last time, dispite trying to run out on the bend. Out of a very good family & will improve over the season.
Star Of Germany - 3.15 Won a very good race in the Summer. Down the field in Ireland but that was a tough race on the face of it. This is more suitable.
Clifton Debut - 3.30 A rare runner here for it's trainer & ran very well last time out. Looks to be improving & if it copes with Cheltenham could win.
Cloone Stream - 4.25 Back in more suitable company today & will go close.
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YAIYAM
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What I find disappointing on a day when so say the premier track of Jump racing is having its first fixture of the season cannot manage to scrape together 16 runners for there handicap Hurdle race for a Saturday afternoon.
Roll on Cork tomorrow where we get 2 of these great spectacles of Jump racing to watch
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falbrav4ever
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Another value bet...
Tariq 13.50 is 25-1 with Stan James (1/4 odds)
An absolute 7F specialist in a race in which swveral runners are dropping back in trip, not because it suits them, but because it's a good opportunity with great prize money.
It's possible to find excuses for Tariq's runs this season and there is no doubt that course, distance and ground suit perfectly.
Falbrav
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david-uk
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1.50 Newmarket - Ouqba
2.25 Newmarket - Chabel win & Beethoven EW 66/1
5.25 Newmarket - Above Average 25/1 EW
Gd luck all
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falbrav4ever
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And the last value bet is the horse I've been going on about all week...
Virtual in the Champion Stakes - 50-1 (1/4 odds) with Stan James
Close behind Twice Over in the PoW when trying to make all.
Comfortably in front of Never on a Sunday in the Marois.
Group 1 winner in the Lockinge where staying power won the day.
Unproven over 10F but a mile is too short.
I've backed this one at...
100-1 ante post
65 on Betfair
33-1
And now it's drifted I've had even more on at 50-1.
Falbrav
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value seeker
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Todays shortie Treble(succesful yesterday)
Silk Drum 330
Tabassum 415
Kangaroo Court 500.
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david-uk
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Ouqba very unlucky there, not like Hills to miss out at this track. Dettori done him no favours.
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theGoingStick
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I'm all over Starluck like a bad rash.
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theGoingStick
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| theGoingStick wrote: | | I'm all over Starluck like a bad rash. |
Can I have some cream please ?
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david-uk
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| theGoingStick wrote: | | theGoingStick wrote: | | I'm all over Starluck like a bad rash. |
Can I have some cream please ? |
He made hard work of that! 
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lochsong
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| theGoingStick wrote: | | I'm all over Starluck like a bad rash. |
Steering job.
If Zaynar improves like that he'll be hard to beat in the CH.
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theGoingStick
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| david-uk wrote: | | theGoingStick wrote: | | theGoingStick wrote: | | I'm all over Starluck like a bad rash. |
Can I have some cream please ? |
He made hard work of that! |
Imagine what he'll be like over 2 miles at Kempton in the Christmas hurdle
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lochsong
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Beethoven wont be winning a 2KG.
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newyorktony
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well done with beethoven
| david-uk wrote: | 1.50 Newmarket - Ouqba
2.25 Newmarket - Chabel win & Beethoven EW 66/1
5.25 Newmarket - Above Average 25/1 EW
Gd luck all |
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theGoingStick
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| newyorktony wrote: | well done with beethoven
| david-uk wrote: | 1.50 Newmarket - Ouqba
2.25 Newmarket - Chabel win & Beethoven EW 66/1
5.25 Newmarket - Above Average 25/1 EW
Gd luck all |
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Nice work david-uk
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lochsong
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| newyorktony wrote: | well done with beethoven
| david-uk wrote: | 1.50 Newmarket - Ouqba
2.25 Newmarket - Chabel win & Beethoven EW 66/1
5.25 Newmarket - Above Average 25/1 EW
Gd luck all |
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+1
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david-uk
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| david-uk wrote: | 1.50 Newmarket - Ouqba
2.25 Newmarket - Chabel win & Beethoven EW 66/1
5.25 Newmarket - Above Average 25/1 EW
Gd luck all |
lovely jubly!!!
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lenahan
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Good work david
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theGoingStick
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Kevin Manning dropped his whip on Chabal.
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gromero
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Yes he did, not sure it made much difference though, i wish i was there to have a close look, he looked small and weak for a Galileo.
None of those, apart from maybe Steinbeck have a chance in the Guineas imo, there must be better than that!
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david-uk
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| gromero wrote: | Yes he did, not sure it made much difference though, i wish i was there to have a close look, he looked small and weak for a Galileo.
None of those, apart from maybe Steinbeck have a chance in the Guineas imo, there must be better than that! |
Dont underestimate the winner, hes so tough, may not be a classic winner but I can see this horse winning a biggy at 3.
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lenahan
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look at the drift now on sariska !!! 15/2 and climbing
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lenahan
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| lenahan wrote: | | look at the drift now on sariska !!! 15/2 and climbing |
9s Never On Sunday backed into 2nd fav 5/1.
Think the punters might be making too much of the ground and trip here from her to be going off so high unless there is something else 'they' know.
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theGoingStick
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| lenahan wrote: | | look at the drift now on sariska !!! 15/2 and climbing |
11/1 on betfair.
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three out
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I think sariska is a bet at this price
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Machiavellian
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Gone for a pair of frenchies
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FallonFacta
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I'm following the usual jockeys - Fallon'll be mortified at Sariska's price! 
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Cath_EVN
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not strictly second string but gone for Alpine Rose as bigger price of French 2 and Twice Over for Henry.
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Machiavellian
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| FallonFacta wrote: | | I'm following the usual jockeys - Fallon'll be mortified at Sariska's price! |
Bigger liability?
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newyorktony
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sariska is a huge price
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theGoingStick
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Ruby Ruby Ruby
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FallonFacta
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 Just spent ten minutes doing all sorts of daft bets with Crystal Capella, Cloone Stream and Nina's and That odds on shot that just came third and missed Fallon on a 25/1 shot 
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FallonFacta
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And Cloone Stream lost too  C'mon NINA!!!
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lenahan
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| FallonFacta wrote: | | Just spent ten minutes doing all sorts of daft bets with Crystal Capella, Cloone Stream and Nina's and That odds on shot that just came third and missed Fallon on a 25/1 shot |
Music Show was never a 25/1 shot was she ? Oh my lordy ive just seen she was. Obvisuly alot higher on betfair as well. Would have never backed her myself but thought she would be a single figure price as was one of the best 2/3 to topple Tabbassum. As she just proved.
Gutted FF is the phrase i think your looking for
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FallonFacta
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| lenahan wrote: | | FallonFacta wrote: | | Just spent ten minutes doing all sorts of daft bets with Crystal Capella, Cloone Stream and Nina's and That odds on shot that just came third and missed Fallon on a 25/1 shot |
Music Show was never a 25/1 shot was she ? Oh my lordy ive just seen she was. Obvisuly alot higher on betfair as well. Would have never backed her myself but thought she would be a single figure price as was one of the best 2/3 to topple Tabbassum. As she just proved.
Gutted FF is the phrase i think your looking for |
I'm trying to think positive! Backed Fallon to get 50 winners by 7 Nov - he's not quite at 30 yet - that's one closer....
But gutted is probably the word 
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lochsong
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I'm going to sign off with a bit of after timing and you folks wont believe the story.
I was too to post it up but last night I dreamt I was in Mick Channon's yard stroking his horses.
He had 5 runners lined up for today and I had Twice Over (which I won money on in the single) in a double with Mick's Som Tala in the Ces. Thought I was going to win a small fortune.
Anyway, I persisted and used my winnings to back Music Show in the Rockfel who has just obliged.
I love you Keiran Fallon...
Mick's last runner for the day is Lahaleeb in a G1 at Woodbine tonight. Might just stick £50 on @20's
Have a nice weekend folks. Off to watch Button get pole in the F1 qualifying 
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shamardal84
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| lochsong wrote: |
Have a nice weekend folks. Off to watch Button get pole in the F1 qualifying |
I reckon your going to have to watch for a long time then. Its all about Super Seb today
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lochsong
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| shamardal84 wrote: | | lochsong wrote: |
Have a nice weekend folks. Off to watch Button get pole in the F1 qualifying |
I reckon your going to have to watch for a long time then. Its all about Super Seb today |
If Webber prangs Button I'm going to stop watching F1. 
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theGoingStick
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| lochsong wrote: | | last night I dreamt I was in Mick Channon's yard stroking his horses. |
Of all the things to dream of
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newyorktony
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just a nice bet on kanagaroo court at evens
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FallonFacta
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| lochsong wrote: | | shamardal84 wrote: | | lochsong wrote: |
Have a nice weekend folks. Off to watch Button get pole in the F1 qualifying |
I reckon your going to have to watch for a long time then. Its all about Super Seb today |
If Webber prangs Button I'm going to stop watching F1. |
Does Seb Saunders drive too? 
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lochsong
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| theGoingStick wrote: | | lochsong wrote: | | last night I dreamt I was in Mick Channon's yard stroking his horses. |
Of all the things to dream of |
I know, how strange. But I distinctly remember someone in my dream saying 'That's Channon's yard' and I went over and stroked a horse's nose.
and I also knew it was a 2 yo......
Told you you wouldn't beleive it. I can't believe it.
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newyorktony
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he might struggle to get to 50 he has 30 + music show makes 31 but depends how many times he goes abroad to ride only 3weeks left of season
| FallonFacta wrote: | | lenahan wrote: | | FallonFacta wrote: | | Just spent ten minutes doing all sorts of daft bets with Crystal Capella, Cloone Stream and Nina's and That odds on shot that just came third and missed Fallon on a 25/1 shot |
Music Show was never a 25/1 shot was she ? Oh my lordy ive just seen she was. Obvisuly alot higher on betfair as well. Would have never backed her myself but thought she would be a single figure price as was one of the best 2/3 to topple Tabbassum. As she just proved.
Gutted FF is the phrase i think your looking for |
I'm trying to think positive! Backed Fallon to get 50 winners by 7 Nov - he's not quite at 30 yet - that's one closer....
But gutted is probably the word |
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theGoingStick
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Oh I do like small field novice chases
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FallonFacta
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What happens if they've all gone the wrong way?
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FallonFacta
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Yeah NINA!! 
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dogsaver
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| FallonFacta wrote: | | What happens if they've all gone the wrong way? |
they call them gays
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Gorg_George
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Geneva Geyser here @ 8/1. Overbut, but why the hell not.
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Gorg_George
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Well, that'll put a dampner on things.
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Gorg_George
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6-20 Strategic Mover @ 3/1
6-50 Grudge e/w @ 14/1
8-50 Lujano @ 5/1
Sinlges and an e/w trixie. Just installed my kickass new telly so guna be watching the racing tonight like never before!
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westmeadhawk
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| lochsong wrote: | | theGoingStick wrote: | | lochsong wrote: | | last night I dreamt I was in Mick Channon's yard stroking his horses. |
Of all the things to dream of |
I know, how strange. But I distinctly remember someone in my dream saying 'That's Channon's yard' and I went over and stroked a horse's nose.
and I also knew it was a 2 yo......
Told you you wouldn't beleive it. I can't believe it. |
I believe you LS - I had a dream I hugged John Oxx the other week
Anyway, a win's a win, even if they are coming to take us away haha!
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westmeadhawk
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| Gorg_George wrote: | 6-20 Strategic Mover @ 3/1
6-50 Grudge e/w @ 14/1
8-50 Lujano @ 5/1
Sinlges and an e/w trixie. Just installed my kickass new telly so guna be watching the racing tonight like never before! |
I've backed Paul Cole's too, but I've got to cook dinner so I am leaving it in your capable hands GG.
I don't want to come back and find the blinkers didn't work
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lochsong
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| westmeadhawk wrote: | | lochsong wrote: | | theGoingStick wrote: | | lochsong wrote: | | last night I dreamt I was in Mick Channon's yard stroking his horses. |
Of all the things to dream of |
I know, how strange. But I distinctly remember someone in my dream saying 'That's Channon's yard' and I went over and stroked a horse's nose.
and I also knew it was a 2 yo......
Told you you wouldn't beleive it. I can't believe it. |
I believe you LS - I had a dream I hugged John Oxx the other week
Anyway, a win's a win, even if they are coming to take us away haha! |
hahahahahaha
They better be ready, I've just bought myself a quart of rum. 
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Gorg_George
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| westmeadhawk wrote: | | Gorg_George wrote: | 6-20 Strategic Mover @ 3/1
6-50 Grudge e/w @ 14/1
8-50 Lujano @ 5/1
Sinlges and an e/w trixie. Just installed my kickass new telly so guna be watching the racing tonight like never before! |
I've backed Paul Cole's too, but I've got to cook dinner so I am leaving it in your capable hands GG.
I don't want to come back and find the blinkers didn't work |
Not today 
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lochsong
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| shamardal84 wrote: | | lochsong wrote: |
Have a nice weekend folks. Off to watch Button get pole in the F1 qualifying |
I reckon your going to have to watch for a long time then. Its all about Super Seb today |
Hmmmm who's left in qually now.
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westmeadhawk
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| Gorg_George wrote: | | westmeadhawk wrote: | | Gorg_George wrote: | 6-20 Strategic Mover @ 3/1
6-50 Grudge e/w @ 14/1
8-50 Lujano @ 5/1
Sinlges and an e/w trixie. Just installed my kickass new telly so guna be watching the racing tonight like never before! |
I've backed Paul Cole's too, but I've got to cook dinner so I am leaving it in your capable hands GG.
I don't want to come back and find the blinkers didn't work |
Not today |
Not to worry I'll go in the next
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Owl of Minerva
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Poor day on the horses overall - Crystal Capella was key , salvaged a bit by Darley Sun. And salavaged some more by a balloon! Still down a bit overall though. THat will change when Buccelatti wins the Canadian International though
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westmeadhawk
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... with Chichina, I have backed this before and refuse to believe she is THAT awful. EW naturally.
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SkankyMinga
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This next race at Wolves is poor and I am taking a chance on handicap debutant Be Kind. Is being stepped up markedly in trip and has first time headgear. Might come last but worth a chance at the prices IMO.
Small TBP Bet @ 18/1
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westmeadhawk
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undeterred I will back the Market Watcher, GL to all
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Death n Taxes
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Going for the top two weights in the next
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westmeadhawk
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I am going to polish a pin for the next.
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lochsong
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| SkankyMinga wrote: | This next race at Wolves is poor and I am taking a chance on handicap debutant Be Kind. Is being stepped up markedly in trip and has first time headgear. Might come last but worth a chance at the prices IMO.
Small TBP Bet @ 18/1 |
Hey Skankster, how you doin mate.?
you're as easy to keep intouch with as a snowflake in august.
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westmeadhawk
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| Death n Taxes wrote: | | Going for the top two weights in the next |
my pin fell on the fav.
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Death n Taxes
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Opium duke to place
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westmeadhawk
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| Death n Taxes wrote: | | Opium duke to place |
I think it's Omnium but a little opium probably wouldn't hurt in my case
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westmeadhawk
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gone for alquaahir ew - little bit of money for it just now 
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Death n Taxes
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| westmeadhawk wrote: | | gone for alquaahir ew - little bit of money for it just now |
good shout
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westmeadhawk
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| Death n Taxes wrote: | | westmeadhawk wrote: | | gone for alquaahir ew - little bit of money for it just now |
good shout |
Thanks but as Mick Channon says, if you throw enough muck at a wall, some of it will stick
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Death n Taxes
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pianoforte ew in the last
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westmeadhawk
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I'm between Petomic and Sullenberger...
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Death n Taxes
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| westmeadhawk wrote: | | I'm between Petomic and Sullenberger... |
market says sullenberger
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westmeadhawk
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Hmmm.
I don't know, not much to split them!
Going to go Petomic win and RFC the pair
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Death n Taxes
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market is following you
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westmeadhawk
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| Death n Taxes wrote: | | market is following you |
I am the market
NOT!
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westmeadhawk
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In any event - good luck
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westmeadhawk
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oops! Let's hope YY was on
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Owl of Minerva
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Anyone else think that the near side rail may have been the slowest part of the track today at Newmarket?
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westmeadhawk
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| Owl of Minerva wrote: | | Anyone else think that the near side rail may have been the slowest part of the track today at Newmarket? |
I have never walked the track, but it looks to have a slight camber up to the far rail and they all seem to like it over there...
In which case it would drain better so you are probably correct.
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Owl of Minerva
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Lahaleeb 38/1 in Canada so had a few quid win and show
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westmeadhawk
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Let us know what occurs like
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Owl of Minerva
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She won 
Didn't expect that!
Only 10 win 10 show but happy days indeed
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westmeadhawk
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| Owl of Minerva wrote: | She won
Didn't expect that!
Only 10 win 10 show but happy days indeed |
Yay! Good for them
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Owl of Minerva
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All those winnings now going straight onto Buccellati Shit or bust as they say
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Owl of Minerva
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44/1
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theGoingStick
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Nice work Lahaleeb backers 
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Owl of Minerva
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As well as steaming into Buccellati I'm betting Allied Powers small win and show. This is because I think there is more cut in the ground than they are saying with Lahaleeb and RV 1st and 2nd there and this will suit AP. Will also reverse these two
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theGoingStick
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| Owl of Minerva wrote: | | As well as steaming into Buccellati I'm betting Allied Powers small win and show. This is because I think there is more cut in the ground than they are saying with Lahaleeb and RV 1st and 2nd there and this will suit AP. Will also reverse these two |
Looks like you got the show up there.
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Owl of Minerva
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Champs Elysees 1st
Jukebox Jury 2nd
Buccellati 3rd
Thank god Buccellati sneaked 3rd - still lost on the race but damage not too great. If they'd gone slower I think Buccellati would have had a big win chance but they went a good pace and it suited the gallopers
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