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After a little break from football betting since the premiership’s conclusion, I have REALLY been looking forward to the Euros. There will be opportunity aplenty and I will be keenly trying to benefit.
I’ll be updating throughout the tournament, but for now I’ll just briefly outline my bets for the first weekend…
Saturday 7th:
Switzerland vs Czech Republic – CR to win @ 2.88 – 1.5 points
Portugal vs Turkey – Portugal to win @ 1.77 – 2 points
Sunday 8th:
Austria vs Croatia – Croatia to win @ 1.97 – 2 points
Germany vs Poland – Germany to win @ 1.57 – 3 points
Germany HT/FT @ 2.42 – 1.5 points
I'll be more detailed in future but today i have a hangover and man flu and I'm feeling sorry for myself.
Be lucky
AJ
accajacca
how silly of me, i forgot to do an acca on the 4. i have now. 1 point @ 13.76.
so that makes it 11 points invested.
god i can't wait to get out of here tonight and go to bed with a litre of lemon lucozade.
AJ
accajacca
so far so good hopefully Croatia and Germany will oblige today and get that acca up.
whilst i'm waiting on that, i've had 3 points on france to win tomorrow against Romania @ 1.88.
i'm slightly irritated at myself because i saw them much closer to evens on friday and held off, but i make them around 2/3 so at 1.88 they're still a good bet - especially with some of their stars having major points to prove.
so after the first 4 games that's + 20.98 points after commission.
but now the tricky stuff starts...
Today's bets:
Romania vs France - France to win @ 1.88 - 3 points (already posted)
France HT/FT @ 3.15 - 1 point
My thoughts so far are that the Czechs aren't the team i had them down as, and i'll be approaching them with caution, the Germans are solid but underpriced for the tournament, the Croatians are a good side who never bothered coming out of 2nd gear - which i'll put down to first game nerves. portugal will be carrying more of my money as the tournament progresses - they have the potential to go a long way...
tonight will tell us a lot of what we need to know about the french, but on paper they look as strong as ever and i'm happy to have a bet on those grounds.
the holland italy game looks wide open to me, and at the prices i'd favour holland, but i've got no conviction eiter way, so it's a no bet for me.
finally, i'm having a treble to try and carry some money onto portugal on wednesday:
Romanian vs France - France to win
Spain vs Russia - Spain to win
Czech Republic vs Portugal - Portugal to win
1 point treble @ 5.77
happy punting
AJ
accajacca
just a quick addition...
if france beat Romania tonight, as i expect them to, we may start seeing more money for the favourites in these early games. i'm keen to back spain and don't want to bet at an unnecessarily short price. so...
Spain vs Russia - Spain to win @ 1.73 - 3 points
Spain HT/FT @ 2.94 - 1 point
i know full well the ritual of spain's unfulfilled promise in these major tournaments, but their midfield and strike force really is magnificent, whereas the Russians were mere beneficiaries of england's incompetance and just don't boast the same quality.
AJ
accajacca
well a disappointing french performance cost us 5 points last night so the running total is +15.98.
it turned out to be a good decision taking the early prices about spain who have been backed on betfair, and hopefully they can put in a peformance tonight and get us back on track.
i won't be touching the sweden/greece game which looks like it could be a scrappy affair.
finally, the dutch impressed me last night and when robben and van persie are fully fit they could be frightening. on the evidence so far you would have to say holland and protugal are the teams with the pace and quality of attacking football to go all the way.
cheers
AJ
accajacca
Spain WIN + 2.08
Spain HT/FT WIN + 1.85
Running total + 19.91 points
tonight is a real conundrum. i was really taken with portugal after their first game, and completely disappointed in the czech republic. however, the czechs in my view will be shutting up shop and will be delighted with a draw.
normally this would put me off, but with the talent in the portugal team i think they can break down any side in the tournament. i think that they'll grab a first half goal and that the Czechs will be forced to come out looking for the tournament's first equalizer - and end up getting punished again.
in the other game my puzzlement comes from the prices. i can't for the life of me see what makes switzerland favourites to beat turkey. they showed absolutely nothing in the first game, whereas on the ball turkey looked dangerous at times, and lost to a much better team in portugal than the swiss did in the CR. colin kazim-richards looks like he has turned into a real player and a bit of inspiration from him could see them get a result this evening.
so tonight's bets;
Czech Republic vs Portugal - Portugal to win @ 1.86 - 3 points
Portugal HT/FT @ 3.25 - 1 point
Over 2.5 goals @ 2.92 - 1 point
Portugal win 0-2 @ 7.8 - 0.5 point
Portugal to win 1-2 @ 9.6 - 0.5 point
Switzerland vs Turkey - Turkey to win @ 3.6 - 2.5 points
Turkey HT/FT @ 6.6 - 1 point
so that's 9.5 points invested tonight, and with a bit of luck a nice boost to the bank to carry into the rest of the tournament
be lucky
AJ
accajacca
update...
Portugal to win @ 1.86 - 3 points WON + 2.45
Portugal HT/FT @ 3.25 - 1 point LOST - 1
Over 2.5 goals @ 2.92 - 1 point WON + 1.83
Portugal win 0-2 @ 7.8 - 0.5 point LOST - 0.5
Portugal to win 1-2 @ 9.6 - 0.5 point LOST - 0.5
Turkey to win @ 3.6 - 2.5 points WON + 6.18
Turkey HT/FT @ 6.6 - 1 point LOST - 1
so overall that's a profit on the day of + 7.46 points after commission, leaving a running total of + 27.37 so far.
BUT, that really only tells half the story. 1 minute away from the correct score in the portugal game, monsoon weather in the turkey game and a last minute goal gives us the winner. excitement left right and centre.
germany are my fancy for tomorrow's games, but i'm going to sleep on it because they're up against a croatian team that will surely settle for a point.
poland austria is a tough one to call, but at the prices i'd favour austria. something else to ponder overnight i think.
anyway, so far so good. it seems to be turning into the tournament i hoped for and with any luck there's a lot more to come.
until tomorrow...
AJ
accajacca
Croatia vs Germany - Germany to win @ 1.8 - 4 points
Germany HT/FT @ 3.1 - 1 point
Austria vs Poland - Austria to win @ 3.4 - 1 point.
that's all folks, back to my lemsip
AJ
accajacca
apologies for no update yesterday, i was late betting. and early drinking...
thursday was a disappointing day, costing six points and leaving a running total of +21.37, but today we make all of that back and more.
sweden vs spain
to my mind, a foregone conclusion. xavi and iniesta are my 2 favourite midfield players in the competition, and between them have the vision and the ability to pick out pass after killer pass. in front of them is the best strike force in the competition as demonstrated in game 1. i have a feeling it may be torres's turn today and considered betting him to score any time, but at the odds i'll let it go. the more i look at spain the more they look like tournament winners, and i expect them to reinforce those credentials today.
to my mind sweden are the complete opposite. lacking in creativity and imagination, they relied upon a wonder strike from ibrahimovic last time. he by the way is my idea of the most overrated player in europe, and i'm hoping he has another of his quiet days today.
the bets...
Sweden vs Spain - Spain to win @ 1.68 - 7.5 points
Spain HT/FT @ 2.78 - 2 points
Spain to win both halves @ 3.75 - 1 point
correct score 0-3 @ 17.5 - 0.5 point
correct score 1-3 @ 17 - 0.5 point
Total bet 11.5 points - in breach of my self imposed 10 point match limit and my biggest football bet ever. lets hope i don't come to regret it...
be LUCKY
AJ
accajacca
update...
Sweden vs Spain - Spain to win @ 1.68 - 7.5 points WON
Spain HT/FT @ 2.78 - 2 points LOST
Spain to win both halves @ 3.75 - 1 point LOST
correct score 0-3 @ 17.5 - 0.5 point LOST
correct score 1-3 @ 17 - 0.5 point LOST
Running Total +22.22
as much as i felt like the luckiest man in town in the 91st minute, on reflection i feel hard done by. the penalty just before half time was a stone wall certainty, and would have made each of my attached bets look very good. instead we scrape a profit of 0.85 points on the game overall, but live to fight another day.
now i know there will be people everywhere saying the portuguese don't need to win against the swiss today, but if they needed 3 points in this game they would be 1.6. given the quality of their squad, the market has overeacted to the likelihood of players being rested, and I just can't resist the price...
switzerland vs portugal - portugal to win @ 2.36 - 5 points
portugal HT/FT @ 4.2 - 1 point.
hopefully Croatia and Germany will oblige today and get that acca up.
