accajacca
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accajacca's football punts 2009/2010Afternoon all.
I had started a thread a while ago in the sub forum on which I was going to win or lose £2,000 with football bets over the course of the thread. It was a few quid up I think, but a.) I don’t know where the thread has gone, and b.) with the new season starting it makes sense to start from scratch as a new challenge.
So, a few thread rules:
I will be backing all selections in the “real world” to the stakes stated herein. Most bets will range between £20 and £50. Confident bets will be up to £100, and super confident bets at prices that I think are completely wrong will get a MAX BET of £200. This will be rare.
I will run the thread until I have made or lost £2,000, or until the end of the season.
Most weeks will be a number of win singles, often with a small accumulator on top to try and accelerate our way to the £2,000 mark.
I will use bookmakers’ prices as well as Betdaq’s.
So, without further mumbling, on to the first week.
Win singles on Betdaq (I have just opened an account with them partly for the purpose of this exercise):
Blackburn vs Man City – MAN CITY WIN – £25 @ 2.25
Portsmouth vs Fulham – FULHAM WIN - £25 @ 3.05
Wolves vs West Ham – WEST HAM WIN - £30 @ 2.96
Tottenham vs Liverpool – LIVERPOOL WIN - £20 @ 2.26
Also, using Bet365 and the prices; 6/5, 15/8, 8/5 and 6/5 respectively, I have done £4 trebles and a £4 accumulator, meaning an additional investment of £20.
So, week 1, 4 selections (all away wins  ), £120 staked.
Let’s see how we go.
Be Lucky
AJ
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accajacca
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Typical spurs to put in a performance like that when i've bet on the opposition...
Liverpool were toothless and as i keep saying, won't be winning the league this season.
Quick round up of results;
Bet 1: Blackburn vs MAN CITY - £25 @ 2.25 - WON = + £29.69
Bet 2: Portsmouth vs FULHAM - £25 @ 3.05 - WON = + £48.69
Bet 3: Wolves vs WEST HAM - £30 @ 2.96 - WON = + £55.86
Bet 4: Tottenham vs LIVERPOOL - £20 @ 2.26 - LOST = - £20
Multiple of Bets 1/2/3/4: £20 staked, £65.78 returned = + £45.78
Total P&L after 4 bets = + £160.02
Running analysis of Single bets(*):
Average Size so far: £25
Average Price so far: 2.63
Strike Rate so far: 75%
Average Return Per Bet so far: +114.24%
* I'm going to keep this running for my own interest, apologies if it's boring. it's completely meaningless after 4 bets anyway so feel free to ignore fo the time being 
Midweek bets coming up shortly...
AJ
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accajacca
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Midweek bets 18th & 19th August...
Win Singles on Betdaq:
Bet 5: Sunderland vs Chelsea – CHELSEA WIN - £75 @ 1.56
Bet 6: Wigan vs Wolves – WIGAN WIN - £40 @ 1.78
Bet 7: Hull vs Tottenham – TOTTENHAM WIN - £30 @ 2.05
Also, using Bet365 and the prices; 1/2, 8/11 and evs respectively, I have done a £15 treble (4.18/1)
3 selections, £160 staked.
Be Lucky
AJ
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accajacca
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additional punt for tonight:
Accumulator:
Hull v Tottenham - Tottenham WIN
Burnley v Man Utd - Man Utd WIN
Newcastle v Sheff Wed - Newcastle WIN
Liverpool v Stoke - Liverpool WIN
£20 @ 5.97 (Betfair).
Don't usually use Betfair for multiples, but I have tonight. not sure why really.
anyway, will update overall results after tonight's games.
good luck
AJ
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accajacca
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Update:
Bet 5: Sunderland vs CHELSEA - £75 @ 1.56 – WON = + £39.90
Bet 6: WIGAN vs Wolves - £40 @ 1.78 – LOST = - £40
Bet 7: Hull vs TOTTENHAM - £30 @ 2.05 – WON = + £29.93
Multiple Bet 18th August (Chelsea/Wigan/Tottenham) - LOST = - £15
Multiple Bet 19th August (Tottenham/Man Utd/Newcastle/Liverpool) – LOST = - £20.
Total midweek p&l = - £5.17.
So;
Total P&L on single bets after 7 bets: + £144.07
Total P&L on multiple bets after 3 bets*: + £10.78
Total P&L: + £154.85
* For the purpose of this exercise I am going to count group multiples – eg trebles from 4 as one bet to keep things simple.
Running analysis of single bets:
Average size so far: £35
Average price so far: 2.27**
Strike Rate so far: 71.4%
Average return per bet so far: +58.8%
** Maybe I should weight this by the amount bet at each price. Or maybe not. I’m not sure.
Disappointed that Man U failed to do the business as that would have given us a nice little boost. Never mind, a profit is a profit. Onwards and upwards.
Cheers
AJ
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accajacca
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This weekend’s punts:
Bet 8: Sunderland vs Blackburn – Sunderland WIN - £25 @ 2.16
Bet 9: West Ham vs Tottenham – Tottenham WIN - £25 @ 2.41
Bet 10: Burnley vs Everton – Everton WIN - £25 @ 2.26
Also, £4 four folds and the accumulator from the following at Bet365 (£24 total bet):
Sunderland (11/10), Tottenham (11/8 ), Everton (6/5), Arsenal (1/6), Man City (1/3).
£99 bet.
Good Luck
AJ
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accajacca
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Update:
Bet 8: SUNDERLAND vs Blackburn - £25 @ 2.16 - WON = + £27.55
Bet 9: West Ham vs TOTTENHAM - £25 @ 2.41 - WON = + £33.49
Bet 10: Burnley vs EVERTON - £25 @ 2.26 - LOST = - £25
Multiple Bet 22/23rd August - PARTIAL WIN = + £7.04
So;
Total P&L on Single bets after 10 bets: + £180.11
Total P&L on multiple bets: + £17.82
Total P&L: + £197.93
Running Analysis of single bets:
Average size so far: £32
Mean Average price so far: 2.27
Average price so far weighted by bet size: 2.15
Strike rate so far: 70%
Average return per bet so far: +56.3%
Everton let us down for a great weekend and I'd be about £270 richer if they'd won. Two weeks in a row Burnley have beaten established premiership teams to cost us a good return - both times having conceded a penalty that our team missed. I'll be keen to take them on as the season progresses, but it might be time to give them their dues at the moment. We'll see...
I can feel a good weekend coming soon. Fingers crossed...
AJ
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accajacca
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A couple of bets that I think are crackers:
Bet 11: Norwich vs Sunderland - Sunderland WIN - £50 @ 2.03
Bet 12: Gillingham vs Blackburn - Blackburn WIN - £30 @ 1.83
Midweek multiple: £20 Double of the above using the prices 10/11 and 4/5 at Bet 365.
£100 Bet.
Sunderland look good, and their strikers will have goals in them against weak opposition. As far as Blackburn go, I saw a recent interview with Big Sam where he said his aim for this season was a good cup run and that they would be trying their best in the Carling Cup. I don't much like his style of football, but you won't see one of his sides pushed around by a lower league team, and I think he'll have them up for it.
Good Luck
AJ
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accajacca
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NOTE: I realised I hadn't counted the £20 I lost on the accumulator on August 19th in my overall P&L, so I've gone back and added that in, so all the numbers should all be right. If anyone's actually reading this and spots any errors please let me know as I am trying to keep it as accurate as possible for my own benefit (I want a whole season's track record all in one place).
Thanks
AJ
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accajacca
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Good results the last couple of days and we are starting to tick along...
Update:
Bet 11: Norwich vs SUNDERLAND - £50 @ 2.03 - WON = + £48.93
Bet 12: Gillingham vs BLACKBURN - £30 @ 1.83 - WON = + £23.66
Multiple Bet 24/25th August - WON = + £48.73
So;
Total P&L on Single bets after 12 bets: + £252.70
Total P&L on multiple bets: + £66.55
Total P&L: + £319.25
Running Analysis of single bets:
Average size so far: £33.33
Mean Average price so far: 2.21
Average price so far weighted by bet size: 2.11
Strike rate so far: 75%
Average return per bet so far: +63.2%
Long may it continue.
AJ
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accajacca
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I'm off to Switzerland this weekend to visit my brother and moan about how expensive the beer is, so i've had an early look for the premiership games.
I'm sorely tempted to lay Liverpool away to a physical Bolton side, and think Villa are too short against Fulham as well. However, I'm not convinced by either match as a betting prospect, so I'm going to keep it simple and have a bet on Sunderland, who have treated me well so far, away to Stoke, who contrived to make Liverpool look like a good football team recently...
Bet 13: Stoke vs Sunderland - Sunderland WIN - £25 @ 3.35
Good luck, and have a good weekend.
AJ
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accajacca
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| accajacca wrote: | I'm off to Switzerland this weekend to visit my brother and moan about how expensive the beer is, so i've had an early look for the premiership games.
I'm sorely tempted to lay Liverpool away to a physical Bolton side, and think Villa are too short against Fulham as well. However, I'm not convinced by either match as a betting prospect, so I'm going to keep it simple and have a bet on Sunderland, who have treated me well so far, away to Stoke, who contrived to make Liverpool look like a good football team recently...
Bet 13: Stoke vs Sunderland - Sunderland WIN - £25 @ 3.35
Good luck, and have a good weekend.
AJ |
For some reason I didn't look at the Portsmouth vs Man City game - I was expecting City to be 1.4-1.5 - but they're not, they're 1.64, so in we go;
Bet 14: Portsmouth vs Man City - Man City WIN - £50 @ 1.64
Weekend Multiple:
Using Bet365...
£15 Treble: Sunderland (11/5) & Man City (4/7) & Tottenham (4/11)
£30 Double: Man City (4/7) & Tottenham (4/11)
Good Luck
AJ
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accajacca
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Update:
Bet 13: Stoke vs SUNDERLAND - £25 @ 3.35 - LOST = - £25
Bet 14: Portsmouth vs MAN CITY - £50 @ 1.64 - WON = + £30.40
Multiple Bet 29/30th August - PARTIAL WIN = + £19.29
So;
Total P&L on Single bets after 14 bets: + £258.10
Total P&L on multiple bets: + £85.84
Total P&L: + £343.94
Running Analysis of single bets:
Average size so far: £33.93
Mean Average price so far: 2.25
Average price so far weighted by bet size: 2.13
Strike rate so far: 71.42%
Average return per bet so far: +54.33%
Probably no bets for the next couple of weeks, so until then, be lucky.
AJ
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accajacca
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I'm away this weekend and whilst there are a number of tempting fixtures, at the prices there's only one bet that i think stands out;
Bet 15: Birmingham vs Villa - Villa WIN - £25 @ 2.29
Be lucky
AJ
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accajacca
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Update;
Bet 15: Birmingham vs VILLA - £25 @ 2.29 - WON = + £30.64
So;
Total P&L on Single bets after 15 bets: + £288.74
Total P&L on multiple bets: + £85.84
Total P&L: + £374.58
Running Analysis of single bets:
Average size so far: £33.33
Mean Average price so far: 2.25
Average price so far weighted by bet size: 2.14
Strike rate so far: 73.33%
Average return per bet so far: +57.75%
hopefully a few more bets this weekend...
cheers
AJ
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accajacca
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Bets for this weekend:
Bet 16: Man U vs Man City - Man City WIN - £10 @ 6.0 (Waiting to be matched)
Essentially i have no idea how this match is going to go, and it might be that Man U put City firmly back in their box, but of the 2 teams City have played better football so far, look to have plenty of goals in them as well as plenty of confidence, and on that alone shouldn't be 6.0 against anyone - let alone a team struggling to get into top gear. so, a small bet on a price that i think is wrong.
Elsewhere Liverpool will probably beat West Ham, and Chelsea will probably beat Spurs, but the prices are about right, so my only other bet is a banker double:
Arsenal vs Wigan - Arsenal WIN
Villa vs Portsmouth - Villa WIN
£30 double @ 1.76 (Betdaq)
Good Luck
AJ
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accajacca
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Update;
Bet 16: Man U vs MAN CITY - £10 @ 6.0 – LOST = - £10
Multiple bet 19th September 09 WON = + £21.66
So;
Total P&L on Single bets after 16 bets: + £278.74
Total P&L on multiple bets: + £107.50
Total P&L: + £386.24
Running Analysis of single bets:
Average size so far: £31.87
Mean Average price so far: 2.65
Average price so far weighted by bet size: 2.22
Strike rate so far: 68.75%
Average return per bet so far: +54.66%
A fairly predictable set of results in the end and I suppose it would have been nice to get more teams involved in the multiple, but better safe than sorry.
Not a lot that I fancy in the carling cup, and the teams that I do are prohibitively short, but looking ahead to the weekend there are a few games and prices that catch the eye and I think it could be a good week. Fingers crossed…
AJ
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accajacca
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There are a number of matches that I think are good value this week, and absolutely wouldn’t put anyone off backing Everton, Villa or Arsenal in decent singles specifically. However, when weeks like this come along that look predictable and where the prices aren’t so cramped as to be unplayable, I tend to think you have to try and take advantage (is this regrets over last week talking…?)
So, from the following;
Portsmouth vs EVERTON (1.97)
Blackburn vs VILLA (2.42)
Stoke vs MAN U (1.42)
Wigan vs CHELSEA (1.36)
Fulham vs ARSENAL (1.61)
SUNDERLAND (1.78 ) vs Wolves
MAN CITY (1.47) vs West Ham
I have done £2 5-folds (£42), £2 6-folds (£14) and a £4 acca – total £60.
Additionally I have done a £30 4-fold of Everton, Chelsea, Man U & Arsenal at odds of 5.84.
So that’s £90 invested. WIll be watching all of the Saturday games in the pub for a friend's birthday so hoping for a great weekend.
Be Lucky
AJ
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accajacca
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Update;
Multiple bet 26th - 28th September 09 = - £73.74
Suffice to say i was not a happy bunny. My shortest priced selection capitulate by conceding a penalty and having their goalie sent off, and Villa - who looked to be coming into some sort of form - manage to lose to a 10 man Blackburn. So, 5 games out of 7 correct, biggest loss of the season. Infuriating.
So;
Total P&L on Single bets after 16 bets: + £278.74
Total P&L on multiple bets: + £33.76
Total P&L: + £312.50
Running Analysis of single bets:
Average size so far: £31.87
Mean Average price so far: 2.65
Average price so far weighted by bet size: 2.22
Strike rate so far: 68.75%
Average return per bet so far: +54.66%
AJ
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accajacca
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Bets for this weekend:
Bet 17: Bolton vs Tottenham - Tottenham WIN - £30 @ 2.02
Bet 18: Villa vs Man City - Man City WIN - £25 @ 2.76
Multiple bet:
Bolton vs Tottenham
Villa vs Man City
Everton vs Stoke
£10 treble @ 8.56
£65 invested, hoping for better luck this week.
AJ
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accajacca
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was looking forward to turning things around after the international break after a couple of tough weeks beforehand, but frustratingly there are no standouts, so i will keep the powder dry until next week, when i'm sure there will be better chances.
will update the stats before my next bets...
good luck to anyone having a punt this weekend.
AJ
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accajacca
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Update;
Total P&L on Single bets after 18 bets: + £223.74
Total P&L on multiple bets: + £23.76
Total P&L: + £247.50
Running Analysis of single bets:
Average size so far: £31.38
Mean Average price so far: 2.62
Average price so far weighted by bet size: 2.23
Strike rate so far: 61.11%
Average return per bet so far: +39.6%
This week's bets to follow shortly...
AJ
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accajacca
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This week's bets...
Bet 19: Wolves vs Aston Villa - Villa WIN - £25 @ 2.23
Bet 20: Birmingham vs Sunderland - Sunderland WIN - £25 @ 2.69
Bet 21: Burnley vs Wigan - Wigan WIN - £25 @ 3.1
Bet 22: Bolton vs Everton - Everton WIN - £25 @ 2.7
Bet 23: Liverpool vs Man U - Man U WIN - £25 @ 2.59
5 away wins please Carol...
Obviously there are the obligatory multiples to throw in on top...
Bet365 go;
Villa 11/10
Sunderland 6/4
Wigan 15/8
Everton 13/8
Man U 6/4
Tottenham 4/9
Arsenal 1/2
So...
5 x £2 6-folds, leaving out one of the original 5 selections each time but including Tottenham and Arsenal in all bets. £10.
Also, from the original 5 selections, £3 4-folds. £15.
All of which adds up to £150 punted on the week. Fingers crossed.
Be Lucky
AJ
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accajacca
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Adding another few for this afternoon and looking forward to watching it from the comfort of the sofa after a heavy few days on the booze...
i think Man U might run riot at Anfield:
Liverpool vs Man U - Draw No Bet - Man U WIN - £30 @ 1.82 (I will count this as part of Bet 23 as it is part of that selection really)
"Special Bets"
Liverpool vs Man U
Over 2.5 goals - YES - £20 @ 2.22
Over 3.5 goals - YES - £10 @ 4.0
enjoy the game and good luck!
AJ
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accajacca
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my ability to get teams turned over is absolutely uncanny at the moment 
still, plenty of the season still left to get back to where we need to be...
will update before next week's picks.
AJ
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