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accajacca
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Accajacca's Premiership punts 2008/2009Morning all.
Having deliberately swerved the opening week of the season – which can be an early banana skin in my experience – week 2 is upon us already, and one game in particular catches the eye.
Aston Villa (specifically Agbonlahor) took Man City to pieces last week, and look like they’re ready to do the same to any mediocre team wandering into their path.
In contrast Stoke lived down to expectations, contriving to make Bolton look like a football team. They’re not good enough for the Premiership, and PaddyPower have taken no risk at all in paying out on their relegation already. Judging by their opening day performance they could well match the achievements of Derby last year.
In spite of this, the chaps at Ladbrokes have decided to make an early contribution to our pot, beating Betfair with a stand out 4/5. Get it while it’s hot.
Meanwhile in London, the scum travel to the Fulham. Having failed to get anything out of Hull last weekend I can’t see the situation improving against Arsenal, but again Ladbrokes want to lay it more than anyone else and go 8/13 the Arsenal win.
Fulham’s vulgar cousins Chelsea travel to Wigan who last week allowed Alan Curbishley to prolong his stay of execution. Deco looks like one of the signings of the summer, and big Phil has got off to a flier. At 4/9 (Ladbrokes again – can’t understand it) they’re big enough to be included in this week’s punt.
So, as much as it leaves a terrible taste starting the season with Arsenal and Chelsea, the first round of bets are…
Stoke vs Aston Villa – Villa Win – 7 points @ 4/5
Fulham vs Arsenal – Arsenal Win – 7 points @ 8/13
Treble
Stoke vs Aston Villa – Villa Win
Fulham vs Arsenal – Arsenal Win
Wigan vs Chelsea – Chelsea Win
2 points @ 16/5
Starting Bank: 200 points
Open Bets: 16 points
Balance: 184 points
Be Lucky
AJ
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accajacca
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strange goings on in the premiership last week. 16 points dropped, which is apparently the same number spurs are targetting this season...
obviously the nice thing would be to have some games this week to repair the damage, but having had a look there is not a single one i could back with confidence.
i would strongly fancy the villa of last year to tun over the team liverpool have been this season so far, but martin o'neils men got humbled by stoke last week and bumbled through an admittedly meaningless european tie during the week. they'll come good but maybe not yet and aren't that tempting at 2/1.
i would also have considered sunderland to beat man city, but at 5/4 they have too many injuries, and city are off the back of a confidence boosting european win. their new kid is one to watch too.
so in conclusion, my powder stays well and truly dry this week. i'm off to america on thursday, so i'll be back and ready to take back my 16 points and more from those fiends at ladbokes in a couple of weeks.
in the meantime, be lucky.
AJ
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accajacca
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welcome back all.
i see that in my absence tottenham have held steady on one point. nice to see us getting some consistency. from everything i've seen/read villa comprehensively outplayed us and are beginning to look like the team i suspected they might be this season.
west brom picked up their first win whilst i was away, but won't get the generous defending from villa that they seem to have got from west ham.
william hill go 7/5 on villa this saturday, which is a good price.
that's it from a betting perspective this week, although i'll be watching chelsea vs man u on sunday nervously, hoping that the various match bets in which i've taken man u against chelsea in the league aren't scuppered so early in the season.
so, this week;
West Brom vs Aston Villa - Villa Win - 7 points @ 7/5
Starting Bank: 200
P&L on closed bets: -16
Open Bets: 7
Running Balance: 177
be lucky
AJ
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accajacca
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Good result for Villa at the weekend – they’re starting to look good, and will be winning us good money this season. 16.8 points returned to the pot where it belongs 
Anyway, here’s a couple of rules I like to stick to:
1.) Don’t bet in the Carling cup
2.) Don’t bet on Man City
So, with that in mind, tonight’s bet…
5 point win double:
Aston Villa vs QPR – Aston Villa win @ 4/9
Brighton vs Man City – Man City win @ 8/15
(prices coutersy of William Hill)
I think the competition winner could well come from one of these this season, and at 12 and 14/1 respectively with Coral, I wouldn’t discourage anyone from having a few points on both. However for the purposes of this column, we’ll just take them to get through their first games for now.
So;
Starting Bank: 200
P&L on closed bets: -6.2
Open Bets: 5
Running Balance: 188.8
Be Lucky
AJ
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accajacca
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i can only apologise for last night's tip. just did not see that coming at all. i made both about 1/3.
must try harder.
AJ.
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accajacca
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right, comeback time
everton don't look quite the same team to me that they have been in the past couple of seasons. they've been shipping a few unnecessary goals, and didn't add a great deal of real quality to their squad over the summer.
liverpool haven't got into full stride yet either, but last week's game excepted, they've been grinding out results and look ready to start stepping up a gear. it's not often you get a top 4 team at odds against when playing opposition that look mid-table quality, and i'm going to have a bit for that reason.
villa really disappointed me in the cup during the week, and their attitude just shows how far down the priority list the competition has fallen. that said, they looked good against west brom last week, and martin o'neil will have drilled home the importance of paying back their fans with a good display at home this week.
sunderland are a team i like and roy keane will become a great coach, but they were bound to have a tricky spell in their second season and i think it may have dawned with the booing during their cup game this week, when the players just didn't seem up for it. they'll bounce back, but i think they could struggle here.
Boro have had a couple of disappointing results after what looked like a bright start. going forwards they look like they're capable of goals, and the mighty mido just can't help scoring.
west brom looked defensively frail against villa last week and may suffer the same fate they did at villa park.
Wigan managed to score 4 in the cup against ipswich, but with mark hughes less than pleased by losing their best chance of silverware during the week, man city are unlikely to be as generous. wigan were every bit as mediocre as spurs last week and lack the flair or cutting edge to get much from a mean defence.
man city need to repent to their manager and fans, and with SWP and robinho back in the starting line up i fully expect them to make ammends.
aside from these, arsenal, chelsea and man u should have no trouble seeing off hull, stoke and bolton respectively.
so, this week's bets...
Everton vs Liverpool - Liverpool win - 4 points @ 11/10
Aston Villa vs Sunderland - Aston Villa win - 4 points @ 8/13
Middlesborough vs West Brom - Middlesborough win - 4 points @ 8/11
Wigan vs Man City - Man City win - 4 points @ 7/5
and i'll have the whole lot in an acca with the other 3:
1 point win accumulator;
Liverpool
Aston Villa
Middlesborough
Man City
Arsenal
Chelsea
Man United
at combined odds of 26.5/1 - all prices through ladbrokes.
so that's 17 points punted on the week, leaving us looking like this...
Starting Bank: 200
P&L on closed bets: -11.2
Open Bets: 17
Running Balance: 171.8
have a fantastic weekend (or continue to for those of you not sat at your desk at 8.20 on a friday night) and hopefully by monday we'll be back on track.
be lucky
AJ
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accajacca
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just to mention i've not forgotten about this.
i've not had a proper football bet for a while whilst work's been going crazy. i'm going to have a look for next week and get started again though. this WILL be a winning season
be lucky
AJ
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