Mikey
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Betfred EclipseSix 1st round heats of the Betfred Eclipse, take place this evening at Nottingham. I won't be having a bet until after the 1st round, but thought it was worth a mention, as it has attracted a few interesting entries.
The maket leader is Wise Thought who is best priced 7/2. He has done nearly all his running in Ireland but has run the track twice in the last few weeks producing VERY quick times. He is already joint favorite for the Derby and 7/2 could look very big come the final next Thursday.
The next 2 in the betting are brothers Ninja Jamie (5/1) and Farloe Reason (8/1). Both have shown a dip in form in recent weeks and seem a bit under-priced to me.
Two of the longer priced runners which are of interest are Farloe Merlin (10/1) and Romeo Maldini (20/1). Merlin has an excellent track record running 14 times and winning 9. Maldini has also won at the track in a competitive time. Both also have relatively straight forward heats tonight.
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alansouthcoast
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As much as it goes against the grain, I have lost a bit of interest since the Stow closed. Does anyone else feel this way, or is it just me ?
Jamie has had a tough season, so he may need a break. I have always followed the Farloe dogs, but think you are right about the prices Mikey. If i had had a bet antepost it would have been Blonde Dino each way. Romeo Maldini is very capable but misses the break too often for my liking.
BTW Mikey, i am enjoying your analysis of the racing.
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westmeadhawk
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| alansouthcoast wrote: | | As much as it goes against the grain, I have lost a bit of interest since the Stow closed. Does anyone else feel this way, or is it just me ? |
It's not just you Alan. I feel very flat and don't have much enthusiasm for it at the mo. Normally about now you'd be thinking about the Racing Post festival races at the Stow. The finale last year with BOA and Spiridon Louis was fantastic. I refuse to give up hope, but realistically I know that the old place is probably going to be mothballed. It just hurts my heart.
Anyhow, hurray for Mikey. I'll be looking forward to his post-first round analysis.  I'll be interested in how me old mucker Dino goes on, but he's not seemed to show as much for new owner/trainer Ricky Hollloway.
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Mikey
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The 1st round took place last night, and the 3 dogs I highlighted all progressed and consequently their odds have now contracted markedly. As I suspected Wise Thought looks to be in extremely good form and he won his heat by 7 lengths. He is now a best priced 5/4 fav.
The draw and accompanying stats are shown below
| Code: | Trap Name Start Time Adj1 Adj2 C'Time Rank Odds
1 Alfie Sparra 5.12 30.32 0.10 +0.00 30.42 12 33/1
2 Vigorous Pat 5.18 30.24 0.10 +0.00 30.34 08 33/1
3 Movealong Blue 5.10 30.05 0.10 +0.00 30.15 03 20/1
4 Pea Ball 5.19 30.66 0.10 +0.00 30.76 17 50/1
5 Romeo Maldini 5.32 30.28 0.10 +0.00 30.38 11 14/1
6 Centaur Marine 5.11 30.45 0.10 +0.00 30.55 15 25/1
1 Farloe Merlin 5.37 30.30 0.10 -0.45 29.95 01 8/1
2 Giddyup Boy 5.30 30.43 0.10 +0.00 30.53 14 66/1
3 Torrent Item 5.13 30.10 0.10 +0.00 30.20 04 33/1
4 Marbeck Wonder 5.21 30.72 0.10 +0.00 30.82 18 50/1
5 Wise Thought 5.05 29.86 0.10 +0.00 29.96 02 5/4
6 Romeo Buzz Boy 5.30 30.54 0.10 -0.30 30.34 08 50/1
1 Harmony Boy 5.31 30.56 0.10 +0.00 30.66 16 50/1
2 Farloe Reason 5.28 30.40 0.10 -0.15 30.35 10 7/1
3 Judicial Force 5.23 30.37 0.10 -0.15 30.32 07 50/1
4 Brians Mate 5.26 30.42 0.10 +0.00 30.52 13 100/1
5 Bawnfune Mal 5.17 30.15 0.10 +0.00 30.25 06 10/1
6 Coolbeg'n Flash 5.23 30.25 0.10 -0.15 30.20 04 100/1 |
The draw has not been kind to us with 3 of the top 4 ranked dogs drawn in heat 2. Therefore I won't be backing anything outright from this heat. What this does mean is there are potentially weaker heats to exploit.
In the 1st, Movealong Blue could be 2 lengths clear of this field but he has been drawn in a heat of fast trappers and 500m looks to be his absolute maximum trip. Not all the bookies have released prices yet so i'm going to wait on this one, but 20/1 looks to be fair.
In the 3rd heat, I have Coolbeggan Flash top rated based on his 1st round run, the bookies obviously dont agree and Stan James go 100/1 (1,2,3). this seems way too big for me, Corals only go 25's. He has a great draw with 5 insiders against him and should he get a trouble free run, 100/1 will look even bigger. He also has run the track a number of times before. I'd prefer e/w 1,2,3,4 but I don't think this price will last long.
This weeks recommendation
Coolbeggan Flash 1 pt e/w @ 100/1 (1,2,3) with Stan James
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alansouthcoast
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Any idea how Ninja Jamie is, he took a fall by all accounts. After everything else, I hope he is okay.
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shamardal84
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I know Heat 2 is a pretty hot heat but I am happy to back Farloe Merlin to win the competition, I think with his previous course form the 8/1 e/w @ 1,2,3 is just too tempting. I cant have the favourite at such a short price. Anyone know when the next heat and the final is? Ive looked on google for dates but cant find anything
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alansouthcoast
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The final is on the 20th so i would think the semis are this weekend.
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Mikey
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The 3 semi finals take place on Saturday night.
The more I look at this competition the more I think the winner will come from either Wise Thought or Farloe Merlin - they are top of my rankings by around 2.5 lengths and I'm very tempted to re-invest my profit from last night split across the 2.
My only worry regarding Farloe Merlin is his relatively slow sectionals. His last 6 starts at Nottingham have been 5.37, 5.21, 5.21, 5.28, 5.32, 5.28 and with only 2 to qualify, there's a risk he'll find too much trouble. If he gets out in 5.21, he'll qualify, 5.37 he won't.
Cheers
Mikey
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shamardal84
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Anyone know if i can watch the semi finals anywhere tonight?
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shamardal84
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| shamardal84 wrote: | | Anyone know if i can watch the semi finals anywhere tonight? |
First two semi's went to plan, favourite and second favourite's both qualifying for the final, so Farloe Merlin is still in for me but looks a pretty decent final especially with Wise Thought beating him in the semi's. The last semi Judicial Force won which was a bit of a shock I guess but overall im just happy Farloe Merlin has made the final
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Mikey
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The final takes place tonight with Wise Thought clear favorite at 1/2, with Farloe Merlin and Romeo Maldini next in the betting. Unfortunately my selection Coolbeggan Flash fell in his semi and didn't make it through.
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westmeadhawk
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Romeo for me I think.
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Mikey
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I really fancy Wise Thought even at the price. Apparently he was ill before the semi and got a relatively slow start - He also has the 6 box tonight.
I quite like the look of Hillcross Legend (currently 7/1) in the 9:10 race, but it could be a good night for favorite backers.
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westmeadhawk
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Yes I read that he had a bout of sickness before the last round. Did he come thundering through last to first too? You've got to admire a dog like that, tough as old boots. Nonetheless it catches up with them all at some point, let's hope it's not tonight if you are backing him Mikey.
Good luck.
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westmeadhawk
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| westmeadhawk wrote: | Did he come thundering through last to first too?
Good luck. |
I got my dogs mixed up 
Anyway Wise Thought won by 2 lengths from Romeo so a good and deserved win for the dog there. Well done to backers 
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