Death n Taxes
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CesarewitchAnyone got any views
Darley Sun is an obvious pick but too short in the betting for me.
The horse that interests me is Mark Johnson's Alanbrook.
second in the Cesarewitch trial over CD so clearly gets the trip. Had a slow start that day and had to make up ground early. Giving a lot of weight to the winner
Also beaten by stable mate (yes Mr President who I backed) in the Old Borough Cup which is good form
Johnson knows how to train a stayer and should get in with a feather weight. Jockey bookings will be interesting
I can easily see him placing 16-1 at present and 31-1 on Betfair. Will have a small bet now but then top up once the final decs are in as I hope a number of bookies will offer 5 or even 6 places.
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geordie_racer
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am on viper each way @ 33/1 and 110 on betfair to win
only one run this year; waited with this is a plot horse
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pericolo topo
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I'd love to hear any decent trends for this race; most of the ones I've read have been less than useful.
Two things usually happen...
i) the winner is from a double figure draw
ii) a mixed/national hunt trainer has a good chance
Not very helpful!
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david-uk
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Ive backed Fair Along in this, got a good chance on last years form, Mr Fallon Booked 16/1 is fair.
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Owl of Minerva
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Alanbrooke for me too
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david-uk
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| Owl of Minerva wrote: | | Alanbrooke for me too |
He might run in the last race, its a lot easier!!
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lochsong
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Can someone post up the stats and trends for this race please?
Thanks in advance.
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gromero
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| lochsong wrote: | Can someone post up the stats and trends for this race please?
Thanks in advance. |
99% of the race can be viewed from the bar. Plenty of time to get in at least one glass of fizz.
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lochsong
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| gromero wrote: | | lochsong wrote: | Can someone post up the stats and trends for this race please?
Thanks in advance. |
99% of the race can be viewed from the bar. Plenty of time to get in at least one glass of fizz. |
Thanks, that's really helpful. I can already see the winner from there.
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gromero
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| lochsong wrote: | | gromero wrote: | | lochsong wrote: | Can someone post up the stats and trends for this race please?
Thanks in advance. |
99% of the race can be viewed from the bar. Plenty of time to get in at least one glass of fizz. |
Thanks, that's really helpful. I can already see the winner from there. |
blimey you must have a good telescope, I can't usually see them until the last 10 minutes of the race.
they'll be setting off shortly though, turning for home by Friday evening.
...ok i'll stop now 
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lochsong
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| gromero wrote: | | lochsong wrote: | | gromero wrote: | | lochsong wrote: | Can someone post up the stats and trends for this race please?
Thanks in advance. |
99% of the race can be viewed from the bar. Plenty of time to get in at least one glass of fizz. |
Thanks, that's really helpful. I can already see the winner from there. |
blimey you must have a good telescope, I can't usually see them until the last 10 minutes of the race.
they'll be setting off shortly though, turning for home by Friday evening.
...ok i'll stop now |
Grom, have you been drinking?
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Death n Taxes
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Looks like J QUinn has been booked for Alanbrook.
He is one of the best featherweight jockeys and often has the pick of the bottom weights.
I have taken some 6-1 on him to place with betfair. He is still in the jockey club cup which is a worry but I think Drill Sargeant is Johnsons horse for that and Alanbrooke has been left in in case anything happens to DS.
Could be wrong but 6-1 for the place when he is 14-1 to win with the bookies was too good to miss.
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gromero
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| lochsong wrote: | | gromero wrote: | | lochsong wrote: | | gromero wrote: | | lochsong wrote: | Can someone post up the stats and trends for this race please?
Thanks in advance. |
99% of the race can be viewed from the bar. Plenty of time to get in at least one glass of fizz. |
Thanks, that's really helpful. I can already see the winner from there. |
blimey you must have a good telescope, I can't usually see them until the last 10 minutes of the race.
they'll be setting off shortly though, turning for home by Friday evening.
...ok i'll stop now |
Grom, have you been drinking? |
Yes, shamanic ayahuasca. Passes the time at work 
The one thing that is interesting about this race, is it is the only race to span two counties.
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lochsong
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| gromero wrote: | | lochsong wrote: | | gromero wrote: | | lochsong wrote: | | gromero wrote: | | lochsong wrote: | Can someone post up the stats and trends for this race please?
Thanks in advance. |
99% of the race can be viewed from the bar. Plenty of time to get in at least one glass of fizz. |
Thanks, that's really helpful. I can already see the winner from there. |
blimey you must have a good telescope, I can't usually see them until the last 10 minutes of the race.
they'll be setting off shortly though, turning for home by Friday evening.
...ok i'll stop now |
Grom, have you been drinking? |
Yes, shamanic ayahuasca. Passes the time at work
The one thing that is interesting about this race, is it is the only race to span two counties. |
You're obviously too young to remember the running that included a cast featuring Top Cees, the Ramsdens, one Mr Fallon and popular pundit Derek 'Tommo' Thompson.
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phardy3
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I am having a small punt e/w on Sweetheart and Fair Along and will look for a rpoper bet come the day!
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Death n Taxes
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Alanbrook runs and due to the weight rise Frankie now takes the ride. Waiting for betfair to settledown but am hoping that my 32 to win and 7 to place will start to look like a good price.
Would want to see him right up with the pace if not making it as i recken he is a good stayer.
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Owl of Minerva
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That is a good price DnT. Not a great draw though for Alanbrooke in 13 but could have been worse I guess
Plenty of 20/1 around which looks a decent price still
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geordie_racer
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have also joined the gamble on Sereth (barney Curley)
was 40s now 16s (got 25)
bookies howling...... 
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Swagger
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There are any amount of plots in this race. But I like ENJOY THE MOMENT. Very well handicapped horse, runs well in big fields, well drawn, trainer can prepare one for this type of race and he could yet fulfil the promise he showed earlier in his career as a progressive stayer of great potential.
EW Top 5 NRNB @ 66/1.
Regards.
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Rochesterlad
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| Swagger wrote: | There are any amount of plots in this race. But I like ENJOY THE MOMENT. Very well handicapped horse, runs well in big fields, well drawn, trainer can prepare one for this type of race and he could yet fulfil the promise he showed earlier in his career as a progressive stayer of great potential.
EW Top 5 NRNB @ 66/1.
Regards. |
Hi Swagger
Saw its run at Bath last month (First run after 13 months off) Well beaten that day and jockey was trying with it.
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Swagger
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| Rochesterlad wrote: | | Swagger wrote: | There are any amount of plots in this race. But I like ENJOY THE MOMENT. Very well handicapped horse, runs well in big fields, well drawn, trainer can prepare one for this type of race and he could yet fulfil the promise he showed earlier in his career as a progressive stayer of great potential.
EW Top 5 NRNB @ 66/1.
Regards. |
Hi Swagger
Saw its run at Bath last month (First run after 13 months off) Well beaten that day and jockey was trying with it. |
In all reality it is a complete long shot, but I saw the run and thought the complete opposite. Dwyer gave him one smack and was hand and heels thereafter and eased him home in the last furlong as though it was a run to blow away the cobwebs after so long off the racetrack. He always needs his first run and the stable were in poor form early last month as well. As I say, it's a complete longshot and at 66/1 the chances are he will tail off down the field, but if he finds his old zest he is handicapped to win the race and would place at worst.
Regards.
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Rochesterlad
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| Swagger wrote: | | Rochesterlad wrote: | | Swagger wrote: | There are any amount of plots in this race. But I like ENJOY THE MOMENT. Very well handicapped horse, runs well in big fields, well drawn, trainer can prepare one for this type of race and he could yet fulfil the promise he showed earlier in his career as a progressive stayer of great potential.
EW Top 5 NRNB @ 66/1.
Regards. |
Hi Swagger
Saw its run at Bath last month (First run after 13 months off) Well beaten that day and jockey was trying with it. |
In all reality it is a complete long shot, but I saw the run and thought the complete opposite. Dwyer gave him one smack and was hand and heels thereafter and eased him home in the last furlong as though it was a run to blow away the cobwebs after so long off the racetrack. He always needs his first run and the stable were in poor form early last month as well. As I say, it's a complete longshot and at 66/1 the chances are he will tail off down the field, but if he finds his old zest he is handicapped to win the race and would place at worst.
Regards. |
I always read your posts with interest...You make a decent case for this horse who`s availble at huge odds.
Best of luck
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lochsong
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As Swagger says, there are any amount of plots in this race. The one I'm going for is Royal Rationale.
One of 3 runners for the Pipe team who have won this twice in the last 10 years.
That Ascot race in June over 2m4f on GF rated 83 and only losing by 1.25 lengths back in third appeals. Lightly raced. Same jock (Seb) and only 3 lbs higher for that. (4th 3.75 l back)
Good draw to get tucked into the rail for a late finishing run. The anticipated cut in the ground will help IMO.
I'm backing this one win and place. 20ish available.
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pericolo topo
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Right. So. Here we go....
HISTORY
i) Draw. No horse drawn 10 or lower has won in the last 10 years.
ii) Penalty. 1 winner in the last 13 (Trained by Mark Johnston)
iii) Age. 3YO have a poor record - last one 11 years ago (Trained by Mark Johnston; anyone notice a trend???)
So lets talk about age for a moment. Here's the some data for the last 10 years.
Best Placed Horse, (Price), (number of 3YO that year), placed
Askar Tau (Fav) (3) Pl4
Sunley Peace 10/1 (1) Pl7
Lightning Strike 12/1 (1) Pl12
Baddam (16/1) (3) Pl15
Tungsten Strike (14/1) (1) pl 28
Misternando (7/1F) (3 ) pl6
Hawkwind (25/1) (2) pl11
Alleluia (7/2F) (5) pl6
Ravenswood (25/1) (2) pl21
Fnan (8/1) (4) pl9
I make that 25 3YO in 10 years in a 34 runner handicap, so I make it 2.5 3YO per year, hence one would expect, statistically, 1 winner every 12 years or so, and one won 11 years ago (see above). On the flip-side, several very well (outrageously well) fancied 3YO have turned up and not even placed. In fact 1 3YO out of 25 in the last 10 years has placed. That to me is much more significant.
ANALYSIS
Applying trends and looking at form left me with:
Woolfall Treasure - arguably holds Sweetheart (1lb better off and 3L last time)
Truckers Delight - looks like a NH clogger, can't discount though - mistake on last start
Aaim to Prosper - Performed poorly on GF but 2nds on Good, wins on GS including Yes Mr President. Big Price at 50-1.
Darley Sun - Outrageously well handicapped, apparently somewhat in front of Alanbrooke on weights
Sweetheart - progressive and will need every yard, weighted to be close to Alanbrooke & has run less so may reverse form.
SUMMARY
Woolfall Treasure makes a stack of appeal on trends and form. Has Sweetheart on toast and she is closely weighted to Darley Sun via Alanbrooke. He is also not 3 and at 22-1 is a reasonable shout with a tremendous jockey in the plate who won this on Miss Fara (Whooop!).
Aaim to Prosper looks a reasonable bet to me on his penultimate start but maybe it'll be a bit firm. Quite happy to take the chance at 50-1.
When I first read the form I was sure Darley Sun would win but I'm very wary given how many positively backed progressive 3YO have been stuffed and they rarely even place. I agree with others that Alanbrooke could be worth a go too, but mostly because his trainer is one of the few who's managed to get a 3YO home in anything like recent times, my worry is how frequently he has run. Sweetheart is ok too but WT has a decent pull on her.
Best of luck whichever you go for!
PT
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Gorg_George
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I'm on Alanbrooke - Yes Mr President e/w @ 16/1 - 18/1
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