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| theGoingStick |
Dewhurst Stakes
The best chance he has of winning the Dewhurst in 5 years  I think he has some way to go to reach New Approach and Teofilos credentials going into the Dewhurst.
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| gromero |
I wish he'd shut up and give me a chance to back him heavily first 
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| Death n Taxes |
am i right in thinking that his previous winners didn't really train on and live up to the hype? | ||||||||
| gromero |
New Approach didn't do too badly
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| Death n Taxes |
But did he live up to the hype. When was the last hyped 2 year old to really live up to the hype. This year STS came out of his 2 year old under hyped and it seems to me that often the big 2 year old races are not a great guide to the classic generation. I could be wrong as it is just a perception. |
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| theGoingStick |
Interesting point, I thought I'd look up the past 10 years worth of guineas winners and the level of achievement as 2yo's :-
King's Best - Listed winner Golan - Maiden winner Rock of Gibraltar - Group 1 winner Refuse to Bend - Group 1 winner Haafhd - Placed group 1 Footstepsinthesand - Group 3 winner George Washington - Group 1 winner Cockney Rebel - Placed group 2 Henrythenavigator - Group 2 winner Sea the Stars - Group 2 winner Bit of a mixed bag really! |
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| gromero |
I think NA easily lived up to the hype, 2nd in the Guineas to a top miler, won the Derby, and then was super impressive in the Champion Stakes. And from a good and ever improving family. Can't knock him imo
Agree Teofilo didn't live up to it, but that was unfortunate, and I don't think Intense Focus was ever hyped up was he? |
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| millsy |
Such a shame Teofilo never had chance to live up to the hype, I was convinced at the time he was going to dominate as a 3yo.
And had some great antepost prices from the season before 
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| westmeadhawk |
I am quite convinced, wrongly I am prepared to admit if challenged, that Teofilio got overcooked for the early season targets and none of it would never have happened given time.
On the wider point, the key in my mind to winning the Guineas is potential for improvement and pedigree proclivities. That is why I would have never taken a price about horses like Canford Cliffs. |
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| westmeadhawk |
Ain't that the truth. |
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| theGoingStick |
Oh lordy 4/1 for Arcano with ladbrokes, it is too hard to resist 
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| lochsong |
http://www.racingpost.com/news/ho...ore-champions-day/642047/related/ | ||||||||
| Gorg_George |
Arcarno every day of the week for me. Very happy with the price I got on him for the guineas next year and hopefully he'll shorten up considerably after this race, that's the hope. | ||||||||
| newyorktony |
i agree about arcano have took the 4s with ladbrokes must go close in the this, chabal looks the danger for me | ||||||||
| Machiavellian |
The men will rise above the mice on Saturday | ||||||||
| pericolo topo |
Very good Mach.
It'll take a wonderful training performance but he's one of the reasons I'm going to find some value. Most interesting for me is Xtension, still a big pup earlier in the year but won the Vintage well and that race has been a solid pointer for this, including Lord Shanakil who was soooo close at 25s last year. Arcano's form is pretty good but has yet to see 7f, which isn't usually a good thing prior to the Dewhurst - stayed on well in France though. Chabal - dunno, depends on how/when Jim really started ramping. I just want to see something good i.e. Shamardal/New Approach not Milk it Mick/Tout Seul & preferably not a repeat of last years blanket finish. |
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| gromero |
Money bags Mo would have known about Chabal before his debut on Irish Champion stakes day. If I knew about him, so would he no doubt! Bolger only this week started ramping him openly to the press, probably after the sale had been agreed. |
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| theGoingStick |
This isn't right, he was talking him up after his first maiden win. |
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| theGoingStick |
That was a nightmare of a race. I think it's more of a Teofilo vs Holy Roman Emporer type race, Chabal vs Arcano. |
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| gromero |
Ok you're probably right, I haven't seen or read all the Bolger interviews of late.
Bolger is a snake at times, but I'm pretty sure he'd be honest with Mo et al now he is shacked up with them. |
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| pericolo topo |
OK, I'm kind of convinced. He's drifted a bit on Betfair since the news.
I took profit from the Betfair account but may commit 1/3 of the remainder.... |
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| Owl of Minerva |
If it wasn't for the name 'A P O'Brien' next to him he would be 20/1 not 5/1 , based on form. Not saying he won't win but anyone that backs him at that horrible price needs to be asking themselves some questions imo. Chabal I'm sure is a very good horse and his form is solid but his price is reflective of hype and I couldn't be backing him at 9/4. Arcano's form is rock solid and the sensible play is probably just to back him @ 4/1+. Looks a good price all things considered. Steinbeck in there at 5/1 certainly makes it an attracitve market to play. |
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| BurntFingers |
Cast your minds back to last year. Ballydoyle had RVW as an uneasy favourite due to his less than perfect preparation. Steinbeck seems to have had a similar interrupted prep also, but with one less run. Therefore, if Rip could not show his true colours last year and he is easily the second best horse to STS, then it would take a huge performance from Steinbeck in what looks a decent renewal already.
Will steer well clear of him and he's where he is right now in the market to lure in punters IMO. Arcano's pretty much an each way bet to nothing with the best form. As stated on other threads, I really like Silver Grecian and will wait for the day to get bigger prices on him .... |
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| BurntFingers |
Just had a wee look at the market again for this and Gosden's High Twelve has been hammered on Betfair today. Clipped in by all but one major bookmaker, too.
Didn't figure at all at Ascot and am trying to remember if he had a troubled run or not? Strange one, but certainly something to take note of. Still 20's on Bet365, but around 12's on Betfair. Free trade there for small profit if anyone wants it .... |
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| theGoingStick |
In-running notes for High Twelve in the Royal Lodge :-
He went off favourite for the Royal Lodge on stable rumours. |
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| BurntFingers |
Cheers tGS. Makes a bit more sense now, although does seem a bit of an over reaction in the betting market. I could be proved wrong, but I didn't think it was a great Royal Lodge and as STS has proved, if you have the class/ability, it doesn't matter how much trouble you find .... | ||||||||
| theGoingStick |
So far the horse doesn't have the form in the book to win this or even be placed and if you were to go off stable rumours on an unexposed sort surely O'Brien is the master at this and Steinbeck is the way to go to take your chance with. |
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| racingcrazy |
Steinback will take this | ||||||||
| Galileo |
Steinbeck looks ripe for a Rip Van Winkle style Dewhurst run - even if he is good enough to win this I do not think they will kill him to do so.
Surprised Arcano is a little on the easy side in the betting for this - thought he would be pretty strong. |
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| lenahan |
This is spot on wmh. This is exatly one of the requirements for a guineas winner. Canford Cliffs will not be winning the Guineas. He will finish well down the field assuming he runs. Id be tempted to say the same about Arcano but i think the jury is still out on this one. This race will tell us all we need to know about his chances in the Guineas next year and beyond at trips of a mile+. I dont make Arcano a place cert myself for this race but at the same time i wouldnt be surprised to see him win. |
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| Machiavellian |
The only comment I made on here was making an irresistible pun at 4 in the morning when I was pissed. I hope Steinbeck wins as I have 40/1 for the Guineas but would not be backing him at the prices for Saturday.
Bye |
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| lenahan |
Been putting together the following stats & trends analysis for the race. Doesnt include last years result which from a quick glance was a complete stats buster. Perhaps not suprisingly. The field looks strong this year so im assuming the stats should hold up fairly well once again. Sorry if some of these overlap and ive not filtered them properly to stop myself repeating and doubling myself. I dont think they do in the main:
- 15/16 Won on there debut.(milk it mik the exception) - 14/16 Won previously at the trip over 7F. - 13/16 Ran in the last 5 weeks.(2 exceptions won the vintage stakes lto at Goodwood at the end of july and the other Mujahid beat sprinters in his year) - 12/16 Won at G3 standard or higher. - 11/11 Were a favourite for a previous race. - 11/11 Won 2 races or more previously. - 10/11 Had previously contested at least a G2.(Battlehardened Tout Seul was the exception) - 9/11 Previously had 3 races or more beforehand.(6/9 of these had strike rates of 66% or more) - 9/11 Went into the race with an RPR of at least 112. (RPR 112+) - 10/10 Preiously had at least 2 runs. - 10/10 Finished top 3 last time out. - 9/10 Posted highest RPR last time out. - 9/10 Had made there Debut by the end of July at the latest.(including all 3 of Jim Bolgers who were heavily raced and battle hardened) - 8/10 Won lto.(exceptions as noted above still finished top 3) - 8/10 Previously won a Group Race.(1 of the exceptins had finished 3rd in a G1 and the other hadnt contested one) - 7/10 Were from the top 2 in the betting.(The exceptions were all big prices at 20s,33s & 25s) - 6/10 Won by those drawn low in stalls 1-4 - 5/10 Won by Favourites. - 4/10 Won a G1.(5/6 of the exceptions had yet to race in G1 company and the other had finished 3rd) In other words a line can be put through any horse finishing unplaced in G1 company previously. You could almost do the same for placed horses unless there is good reason as it seems to appear that you need to have won your G1s if appearing in them. Heres some other tipbits before going on: - Jim Bolgers Record: 3-0-3 - APoBriens Record: 1-6-23 - Vintage Stakes Record: 2-1-6 (01134) - Outsiders have a better record than 2nd,3rd and 4th favourites. - No horse has won on the back of a maiden victory for 20 years. - The upsets came when there was a lack of proven quality.(Dont think we can say thats the case this year) - Previous winning form in a G1/G2 over 7F was key. All meeting this were unbeaten beforehand and went off no longer than 9/2. - More than 50% of winners in the last 20 years were the Timeform Top Rated going into the race. NOW FOR THE RESULTS: All the runners apart from the following ones i will now mention have failed far too many of the above to be taken with any consideration. Steinbeck as you may imagine falls into this catergory with more or less the most fails of anybody. Here are those left with the points they fall down: Arcano - Hasnt won at the trip.(never tried) - Hasnt ran in the last 5 weeks. Chabal - Not Fav for a previous race.(pass if ignoring Kingsfort lto) - Not Won 2+ Races.(pass if ignoring Kingsfort lto) - No Group Win.(pass if ignoring Kingsfort lto) - Ran in G1 but didnt win.(pass if ignoring Kingsfort lto) - No win lto.(pass if ignoring Kingsfort lto) - Debut after July.(unusual for Bolger?) - Less than 3 starts.(unusual for Bolger?) PoetsVoice - Debut Loss - lto loss and unplaced to make it even worse.(albeit in a G1) - Ran in a G1 and not only didnt win but failed to place.(albeit over probably a too short a trip at 6F) Silver Grecian - Lto loss (3rd place carrying extra weight behind Poets Voice and Viscount Nelson). Xtension - Not quite RPR112+ (just misses out with RPR110) - Not ran in 5 weeks(but ran in same race previously as other exceptions to this stat. i.e vintage stakes at goodwood same as sir percy and sharmadal) Timform Ratings: Arcano 135p Chabal 125p Poets Voice 127 Silver Grecian 127 Xtension 123p The winner has to come from those 5. Youd be mad to back anything else even each way imo. Xtension is by far and away the clearest trends pick. He is almost a perfect match and if hed ran a shade more recently he would be no doubt on every single thing mentioned above. Hed possibly also be a timeform top rated on that basis and if he hadnt of ran into Canford Cliffs (a suped up buzzy hannon 2 year old) in the Coventry hed also have had the bonus of being unbeaten like Arcano. Unfashionable stable is proberly letting this one slip under the radar as he is vastly overpriced. Imo a place certainty. Do we forgive Chabal for that 2nd place to Kingsfort in the National or do you apply the trends ruthlessly? Its a tricky one. There is also the Bolger factor to take into consideration furter muddied by this weeks sale to Godolphin. I can see the uproar from the backers now if he loses. Is a win bet on at a short price really that good? We have his various qoutes. He wasnt going to run in the national then he did. He wasnt going to run again this season and now he is. He is the best chance hes had in the Dewurst or is he ? If He was Bolgers latest monster why was he allowed to go off at the prices he did for his maiden and in the national stakes. You could back Xtension to place at more than Chabal to win which i think is the far better bet. Chabal is certainly the one to beat but i dont think he is a win bet personally as id want to be on him each way. Again though imo a place certainty. Arcano not winning at 7F is a big thing to forgive but in his defence he hasnt been tried yet.Not running in 5 weeks is probably not a big issue and probably a good thing given he is with Meehan who will surely have him revved up. Ultimetly i think him not running at 7F is telling.He is not just stepping up to 7F as he is stepping up to the stiff 7F of the Rowley mile which is more like 8F on a flat course.We think he would get 7F at the moment but do we think he would get 8F/Stiff7F just now? Id have to pass him over on this basis and assume Chabal at least has the beating of him over this trip at this course. Its abit of an unknown but im prepared to pass him over. Again as with Chabal at the prices id see backing Xtension place only as a far better bet than anything on this fellow. Silver Grecian should turn the form round with Poets Voice back at level weights but with the proximity of Viscount Nelson splitting them both in there last outing its hard to think the form is up to scratch. Timeform dont have them as improvers and being rated behind arcano and only a whisker ahead of chabal and xtension i think its safe to assume they will struggle to finish ahead of any of those 3. Its certainly hard to see them beating either Chabal or Xtension at the course trip let alone both. For those follows of Dosage Silver Grecian has an index of over just over 4 and not so many points pointing to him struggling to get the stiff 7F at newmarket against this opposition. I could certainly see either Silver Grecian or Poets Voice (possibly both) placing but i couldnt quite see them as winning and dont think they are a bet for either win or place purposes. The ground on saturday shouldnt be a factor for any of the contenders. Any rain will do Chabal the favours to the detriment of the others but that is unlikely and good ground or faster should see him with a tougher job. The race revolves around Chabal. Its my opinion that Silver Grecian & Poets Voice cant beat him. Ultimetly i dont think Arcano will beat him over the course and distance but i wouldnt be so bullish as to say he cant although im not far off. He is feared and respected though. Imo Xtension is the only one in the field that can possibly beat Chabal. And even if he doesnt i still make him a place certainty and at a nice price. At 12/1 EW Xtension is a cracking bet. Xtension 12/1 EW expecting a profit from at least a place and so on that basis prepared to spend a little of the profits beforehand on covering the forecast ;) Chabal/Xtension Reverse Forcasts Arcano is feared and respected as the one to scupper my plans and analysis proving me wrong. NB: Steinbeck fails nearly all the trends and comes more or less bottom of the field on that basis. Yes ok i know we would expect him too given he is a maiden after a summer off injured. He may well be as good as he is hyped but can we really see him winning this ? The posts on this thread and elsehwere already sum it up expecting his run to be similar to that of RVW last year. THey will surely be easy on him and again revolving the race around Chabal can we see Steinbeck finishing in front of him ? Not for me. Even if he places and god forbid wins id still make Xtension as close to a place certainty as you can get and finishing no worse than 3rd. |
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| pericolo topo |
Very good Lenahan.
It is presently my plan to back Xtension EW on course, his profile is right there and given his running style so far he'll be finishing quickly. It just depends if something else has already got there (see vs. Canford Cliffs at Ascot; he would never catch up given how long it took him to get going).... & maybe have a bit at home on Chabal. The money will doubtless arrive for the Tabor, Godolphin &/or Hamdam al Maktoum colours with a bit more for Bolgers record leaving Xtension an excellent price. Arcano could mow up, but Xtension is an outstanding e/w selection. |
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| lenahan |
Arcano a Non Runner ?
Hes been on the drift today. Someones out to get him with £500 available at 6/1 for anyone that wants it on betfair. Been matched as high as 10s. Hmmmm Xtension has also been cut. Sliced from 12s to 8s by laddies with 10s now best available. Not sure what i think is going to happen to his price. He should really be 2nd favourite and not much bigger than 7/2 imo so if people do latch onto him he could be well backed. Difficult to tell which way his price will go which is annoying as id like to back him for more but not till the day. Edit to add: Hes got to be a non runner ? 10s being laid for over a hundred and a few pounds at 200/1 now. |
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| pericolo topo |
Yep, Arcano out. On the RP site.
Wish I'd backed Xtension already.... |
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| lenahan |
Be quick PT....Hills and the others still taking bets...ive just had another £30 on Xtension EW at 10/1. Only just gone up on RP site after appearing on Meehans site 20 mins ago.... |
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| theGoingStick |
Oh well the race just lost a major player there. Chabal all the way then
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| newyorktony |
bloody helllll arcano  thats racing
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| david-uk |
Hope so, although nothing's going to beat this horse. |
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| Owl of Minerva |
Chabal obviously a big chance now, but is plenty short enough. Don't fancy Steinbeck and don't think anything outside the top 5 in the market can win so will now consider Xtension/Silver Grecian e/w perhaps | ||||||||
| theGoingStick |
Maybe they should send him to Barry Hills, he has what it takes to win with classic colts. |
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| pericolo topo |
Billy H's had frozen the market by the time I phoned this evening (still on the RP site at 10-1 but they have no market). Chabal/Extension still the works for me. Thing is, I backed Silver Grecian last time but am pretty worried that he should have won at Doncaster if he was going to take this, penalty or no penalty. |
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| lenahan |
I do like Silver Grecian i think he has a live chance. But i agree with the last remarks from PT. If Silver Grecian is to be winning this he should have been winning last time out even with the 3llb penalty he carried. That race probably wasnt that strong and he (along with Poets Voice) will now do well to come here and win. Its huge that he lost lto in the context of this race when you weigh up the form and combine it with the stats. Ultimetly i think hes farily easy to put a line through. Especially when then measured up against Chabal and Xtension. I cant see beyond Chabal and Xtension now that Arcano is out. Any EW price on Xtension is the bet to have. |
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| lenahan |
One trend i hadnt put up above in my analyisis concerns the draw:
- 6/10 Winners were drawn Low in stalls 1-4. Seems its an advantage to be drawn low by the rails in this race. Will be watching with interest to see what positions the final runners get. |
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| Owl of Minerva |
Was considering Xtension/Silver Grecian E/W but have changed my mid totally now. With 15 runners/3 places an E/W play isn't all that attractive anyway, plus it makes the draw more of a factor. Plus Xtension(11) and SG (15) look badly drawn.
Therefore I have now decided that, with Arcano out of the way, Steinbeck looking up against it given his profille and a bad price, and Xtension and SG badly drawn, 15/8 Chabal is actually now a very good price (drawn 4 - perfect) . I have therefore simply done: Chabal WIN @ 15/8 (Totesport) |
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| lenahan |
I fear you could be right Owl. I was slightly gutted to see Chabal land a plum draw with none of the other leading players being so lucky. Steinbeck getting stall 1 also muddys the waters. |
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| david-uk |
Gone for the Forecast here, Chabal to beat Beethoven, that will be nice!
Plus a big bet on Chabal. |
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| Swagger |
Yes CHABAL all the way for me too. The second best bet of the day! (David has highlighted the bet of the day in the Pride Stakes).
Regards. |
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| lenahan |
Im Happy with my each way on Xtension at the prices (may even have more on if he drifts considerably) but scuppered with the draw in 11 and Chabal in 4 even if its not the most important factor. When all is said and done though i do think Chabal will probably win so will put both him and Xtension in some combination bets with some of this weekends "bankers" curtisy of the board and otherwise!
So therefore finally sticking with: Xtension EW (10-12s taken may add a little more if he drifts) Chabal & Xtension in reverse forecasts & Chabal & Xtension both covered in various small accumulators. |
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| gromero |
I can't believe he is still 2/1+ on betfair after Arcano dropping out.
Of course it can still all go wrong, but 2/1 looks generous, even without the hype |
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| TAFKAB |
2/1 guaranteed price with paddypower will do me nicely. | ||||||||
| racingcrazy |
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| Saint Alebe |
I did as well and he beat a highly regarded Oxx horse, also the last run was very impressive. He should come on a bundle for that run. 2\1 does seem a big price to me but I am on with a small each way on Silver Grecian |
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| lochsong |
Wow, I was just thinking today that we've not heard from you in a long time. The brother. 
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| Gorg_George |
I know pretty much everyone else is against him but I don't think anything looks that special in this race (Arcarno was my strong fancy) and I'm going to back Steinbeck @ 9/2 or hopefully a bit bigger tomorrow morning. O'Brien talking up a horse for The Dewhirst is something that should be noted imo and I think there 2nd/3rd string look in with a shout in there own right and the fact Johnny has chosen this one over Beethoven/Fencing Master says a lot to me (backing Beethoven to small stakes e/w @ 100/1, would Ryan Moore ride a horse in a pacemaking role for Ballydoyle? His form isn't bad in comparison to other horses, he's just slightly more exposed 100/1 just looks stupidly big). O'brien sometimes delivers his 2yo hand late and these once raced horses look very interesting. There just doesn't look to be anything else that stands head and shoulders above the pack to get me suitably worried (understand people backing Chabal but far too short for me). Good luck if your playing | ||||||||
| alansouthcoast |
The one concern I have with Steinbeck is he has been off for so long. I make Chabal and Silver Grecian the likely winners, with Chabal edging it. As an each way shot I like High Twelve, he can nick a place at least if you discount his last run. He was favourite for the Royal Lodge at Ascot but was dropped out and switched left several times. I dont think this was the way to ride him as he ran way better when leading to win, in his previous win at Sandown. | ||||||||
| Saint Alebe |
ha ha - How are ya lochsong? yes cant get on at work anymore so not posted much. I leave it to my brother Swagger!! Chabel at 3\1!!???? Dont know why I bothered taking 9\4 ante post now. Seems big doesnt it. Do I go in again. I know he is fancied from various sources. But dont like it when Corals go stand out. Perhaps Bolger coming out syaing he was his best chance in 4 years was just a smokescreen so the yard could hammer Cuis Ghaire instead? Anyway looks a great card today doesnt it. Tabassum looks short doesnt she. I know she won well and is a player in the 1000G but there are some unexposed horses in this race and i think Ill back Champagnelifestyle each way. Layed Akmal in the last as looks competetive. Buccelleti over in Canada each way at 7\1 with Ladbrokes is one of the best bets i have seen in a while |
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| lochsong |
I'm good mate, and yes, a great days racing ahead.
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| Machiavellian |
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| gromero |
4/1 for Chabal, loving this | ||||||||
| theGoingStick |
I can't bring myself to back him now, he should be a lot shorter than that and Cuis Ghaire just ran a stinker. |
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| gromero |
9/2...off the edge like a lemming | ||||||||
| lenahan |
Im going to back Chabal at these prices.An EW price as well. I dont care if i lose my money with the drift being significant. Ive got Xtension at 10s and 12s. 4/1 EW best odds 
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| theGoingStick |
Blimey Steibeck is the favourite on betfair now
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| theGoingStick |
Odd, odd result. | ||||||||
| Cath_EVN |
Hate to be an after timer but got the winner! Agreed with David-uk that Ryan was a good booking and he was a outsider of the O'Brien team. I didn't like to put up my picks against you serious punters as i am a £1 each way girl! second string got me return in first race too. Profit for day, can afford my horses rent now! | ||||||||
| gromero |
Think C4 said it all really. Steinbeck looks the best of the field, poor dewhurst imo, worse than last year.
Think I'll be topping up my Arcano bets after that. |
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| david-uk |
Glad you backed it George, steak alround tonight!! |
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| Cath_EVN |
Sorry George got you mixed up with David, knew someone had mentioned jockey booking |
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| newyorktony |
well done to all who backed beethoven
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| Gorg_George |
Nice little touch topped up ever so slightly @ 66/1 this morning and had a much bigger bet on Steinbeck but a pretty big win, very happy, just gottalose it all on Alanbrooke and Yes Mr President now 
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| Gorg_George |
How so? |
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| theGoingStick |
Over exposed winner followed by a Dundalk maiden winner with all the form horses behind them. The Morny looks like the strongest juvenille form this year by a fair distance IMO, I hope they all train on next year. |
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| Owl of Minerva |
Hate myself for getting sucked into Bolger's Chabal hype. I'm a mug | ||||||||
| Machiavellian |
Happens to the best of us, Owl. Wouldn't beat yourself up about it as everyone knows you get more right than wrong. |
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| lenahan |
Yeah i wouldnt call anyone backing Chabal a mug today. Drifts can sometimes be misleading and i think they are often worth backing. Dont know if bolgers is a stable where the money usually tells the story. Chabal went off 3rd fav in his maiden so maybe not. One thing i learned very quickly though was to take bolger and obriens words with a pinch of salt. i ignore them for the most part. Obrien was bigging up cape blanco for the dewhurst just over a week ago and saying nothing on steinbeck. Someone made the comment how he thought they were getting steinbeck in under the radar. That was a fair comment as cape blanco was ultimetly pulled and steinbeck ran well today. Two stables to be very wary of when it comes to whatever is said or speculated and dont believe the hype. Steinbeck and the otehr ballydoyle lot are going to make the markets for the guineas. Stenibeck will run next in the guineas and i wont be having him. Wont win as far as im concerned. |
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| Machiavellian |
Cape Blanco has had a little setback. | ||||||||
| lenahan |
Was that before he was going to run well in the dewhurst qoutes or after ? And if after is he going to run in the RP trophy this weekend ? |
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| Machiavellian |
After, I heard it was minor and he'll run again this season. Where I'm not sure, I imagine Doncaster and St.Cloud would be the options. |
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| lochsong |
I wont even quote you on that.
What a load of old tripe. 
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| Machiavellian |
Love you too baby | ||||||||
| lenahan |
if it happened after and it really did happen wouldnt you think even a minor niggle would be enough to keep a horse out for more than a week and not turn up (a fragile 2 yo to boot as well) so it will be interesting to see if he does run again this year.... Of course all this could be perfectly legit and a week could be enough so im not pointing fingers. trouble is one time it will go one way and another time will be something different. There is a lack of consistinceny and not knowing whats going on.all smoke and mirrors. Just how well connected to the stable are these people out there with there stable connections ? even if you do have a connection.....getting passed mis information ? You just ignore it all as far as im concerned. And you can use it to your advantage like GG did today backing beethoven. The amount of lower string high priced winners this stable gets is unbelievable. |
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| penleguin |
Just noticed the winner and the second were both by Oratorio, good day for him! | ||||||||
| theGoingStick |
Aidan O'Brien reminded us after the race
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| Galileo |
I am not sure how anyone can say they tried to "slip Steinbeck in under the radar". O'Brien has been singing his praises to the press long before he made he debut....big talking horse since March/April time.
I thought Steinbeck ran a lovely race, but equally Fencing Master. A big gross horse who does a very good impression of his sire - likely to thrive on racing next year and certainly a horse to follow. |
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| lenahan |
Is true but he certainly wasnt singing his praises this last week. And before Cape Blanco was pulled he was certainly harping on about this one. |
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| Machiavellian |
These are the Dewhurst quotes from Aidan, as of the end of last month
"We always thought Cape Blanco was a very good horse and he is a beautifully actioned horse as he hardly lifts his legs off the ground at all," O'Brien explained. "There is no doubt real fast ground is where he is going to be at his best and we just took a chance on him in the Futurity. "He won and had loads left but he laboured badly in the ground and we said we would never do that to him again. "We've been very happy with him since and we think he is going to be a very exciting horse. "The plan at the moment is to go straight to the Dewhurst with him and you would hope and think that we would get nice ground there. "Steinbeck was always a very exciting horse at home and has always shown loads and was very natural. "He won at Naas first time out and we gave him a little break after that, but we are very happy with him and he is back in full work. "We're looking at the Dewhurst for him as well and while there is a few weeks to go, it is so far so good with him. "He's done all of his work really well and hasn't disappointed us in any of it yet." I think you are making something of nothing |
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| lenahan |
We both know where we stand on this one machi  We will have to agree to disagree.
Actually im not in that cynical critical camp.....Im just in the one where i take Obrien/Ballymore/Coolemare quotes with a pinch of salt. I take note but dont read literally
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| Machiavellian |
lol Ballymore build houses
What you doing up so late? |
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| lenahan |
Certainly do mate. Quite some dynasty! Just got in after drinking with the younger brother....cant keep up with him....guts are churning  Not pleasant i know 
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| glennie1970 |
I resemble that comment might as well tear up those antepost investments I made 
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| Galileo |
I do not see O'Brien talking one up over the other in those quotes...
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| david-uk |
I think Beethoven will beat all those he beat yesterday again, nothing that finised behind him will reverve the form in my opinion, he will only improve as he gets older and stronger. I hope they run him in America, he is getting better all the time and that race will suit him as he is such a battler. |
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| Gorg_George |
I think Beethoven will uphold the form, he's just been slow to come to hand, he could be a really good horse next year, the horses in behind all had there chance, no hard luck stories, Beethoven was given a lovely ride by sir Moore. | ||||||||
| Owl of Minerva |
Fencing Master: 2010 Derby Winner? And maybe even the Guineas
Tonnes of scope - a real beast - and ran a huge race all things considered in the Dewhurst. Plus he's bred to stay. This is the best 2yo prospect seen this season imo |
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| BurntFingers |
The only thing that worries me about both this race and the Champion Stakes is that the majority of the action took place down the centre of the track. Really gives the impression that there was some bias and therefore you can't completely take the form that seriously (IMO).
That said, I do agree that Fencing Master does have the scope for significant improvement given his frame and limited experience thus far .... |
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