general election

Death n Taxes · general election

Interesting piece on five live about the swing required for the conservatives to have a majority with Ken Clarke and Lord Steele predicting a hung parliamnet I have taken the 4.8 on Betfair

Machiavellian

No chance. Tories 17 points ahead in the polls.

Tories at a canter.

lochsong

My vote will count.

YAIYAM

Death n Taxes

Machiavellian

lochsong

Let's face it, the tories will get in.

And let's hope that they will have some solutions to the problems facing us.

Otherwise, we are in big trouble.

All of us.

Jimbob

I think a hung parliament is quite likely. Living in one of the very few 4 way marginal seats in the country perhaps this has clouded my judgement but take this into account.

Labour- Will undoubtedly lose seats but will probably gain a few back in the heartlands to soften the blow as they have had an(admittedly small) switch to the left and what they should be.

Lib Dems- Strong in certain area's of the country and have not been as affected by the expenses scandal as Labour and the Tories.

SNP- Will undoubtedly get a fair few seats in Scotland.

Plaid Cymru- I think they will take more seats off Labour in Wales

Greens- Look very likely to get Brighton And Hove and possibly Norwich South

UKIP- Unlikely to get a seat but could take votes off the tories to stop them doing so.

Plus there's all the Northern Irish seats to consider.

Having said all this, I think a tory win is stillthe most likely outcome but it wouldn't be a very big surprise if all of the above collectively got more seats than the tories imho.

Machiavellian

I think Plaid's 3 or 4 (whatever it is, it'll be 5 or less) seats, the SNP's single figure weigh in as well as the NI seats which couldn't be more irrelevant if they tried aren't really an issue here.

I think this election could be catastrophic for the Lib Dems as they get squeezed by strong support for the two larger parties. I think we could see as many as ten seats knocked off their current total.

I'd be massively surprised if the Greens ended up with an MP.

UKIP will always do well in European Elections being the one issue party they are but in a General Election, their supporters will flock back to the Tories in their droves.

I suppose a hung parliament is fairly likely, given that it's one of two possible outcomes along with a Tory majority. However it's no where near as likely as a majority for Dave and the gang.

Jimbob

There are 645 Parliamentary seats altogether. The SNP currently hold 6. Plaid Cymru hold 3 and there are 18 in Northern Ireland. This is 27 seats(assuming the SNP & Plaid Cymru don't get more than they already have. I personally expect both of them to do so). When talking of a hung parliament whereby if it happens, it'll be a close run thing, I would say these seats(at least 27 and possibly more) would be incredibly significant as they could tip the balance one way or another.

Having said this, if a hung parliament does occur, it is obvious the most important factor would be what the Lib Dems decide to do. I can't see the SNP or Plaid Cymru siding with the Tories over Labour but the Lib Dems might which is one of the reasons they have lost my support.

Machiavellian

NI is irrelevant as far as this bet is concerned because no one who could form a government contests them so they're a constant, if irrelevant picture in the issue of who forms the government. The 18 seats in NI will not swing anything as no one who could form a government contests them.

Plaid may take one or two, so might the SNP but when the Tories are smacking the Liberals out of middle England and in the Liberal heartland of the well to do south west it's not all that relevant.

Machiavellian

Also, any SNP and Plaid gains will be taking seats from Labour or the Liberals, thus making a hung parliament less not more likely.

alansouthcoast

Jimbob

YAIYAM

jennywales

I am certainly not better off than I was 20 years ago. 20 years ago I was in full time work at a pretty reasonable salary, with pension rights, decent leave entitlement and so on. Now, I am on the pension that I (and other taxpayers) paid for over all those years. When I retired in 2000 the pension, plus the statutory old age pension, that I had to work for seemed more than adequate to enable me to continue to live as comfortably as I had already done when in work.

That is not now the case. Fuel prices in particular are taking a much increased chunk out of my income, it is very much more expensive to run a car, and generally prices for retail items (including food) seem to have gone up. I am now having to watch what I spend, and cut back on some of the things I imagined I would be able to do when I retired (eg travel). I am also losing fee income from my consultancy work because the general economic situation means that there are fewer projects being funded and therefore lower demand for my services - this is not something I can do anything about.

So although statistically it might possibly be proved that I am better off than I was 20 years ago, it certainly doesn't FEEL like that!!

PS On the general election, I would be wary of reading too much into polls. The science that lies behind them is much more refined than it used to be, but they are still just guides, not actual fact. My own opinion is that Labour will scrape back (just), because of people in times of economic difficulty preferring the devil they know to the devil they don't, and there is a risk of a hung Parliament. I think that Plaid will do better than expected and the Lib Dems worse (pity, but they have been excessively feeble over the past months/years). Don't know about the SNP, but my Scots friends say there's a fair old backlash against the SNP at the moment.

dogsaver

NoDough

People have had enough of Labour and Gordo is a complete muppet

Tories will win - no problem

Darren

YAIYAM

YAIYAM

theGoingStick

YAIYAM

lenahan

One thing not mentioned is the hidden homeless....

There are loads of those people out there with no fixed address of there own. They bed hop and make do as they can. Youd be suprised just how many are out there. Its an issue that is swept under the carpets and hidden from soceitys view.

We are so fortunate there are so many charitable organisations and people in this country who do alot of the dogs body work where central and local goverments take the P out of them and get them to do some of the work that they should probably be doing or investing tax payer money into themselves.

I know what you say re voting YY but trouble is thats what politicians want what you say. I.e either vote for us or dont vote at all. Its my opionion you have to try to find some sort of protest vote. There is usually something out there that will allow you tick the box. However its my opinion that the whole system is due for some radical change and it may well be coming in time.

Gorg_George

I'd die before I voted Tory. Labour are useless, Lib Dems are still a farce. Green for me I think.

theGoingStick

Monster Raving Loony Party all the way for me

shamardal84

Jimbob

I will vote for anyone, of any party if they guarantee not to bail out the banks ANY MORE!!!!!

RBS havehad their chance!! Let them go to the dogs

NoDough

"I'd die before I voted Tory"

Be careful

Gorg_George

Careful? They'll probably win the election but I would literally die before I voted for them, Twitcher is still in the mind.

Darren

borismo

Interesting read on the times webby listing the 10 MP's that abused the expenses system the most, i think at least 7 or 8 of the 10
were Conservatives. Saying that, number 1 on the list was Labour... found it quite interesting myself thats quite a majority

lochsong

dogsaver

i like the fact that if a person is married to an m.p. they are naturally brilliant secretaries, so they have to be payed more than most other secretaries in the land

johne5knuckle

dogsaver

Jimbob

lenahan

Jimbob

awaywardlad

Darren

Would someone kindly put on here what the bankers 'demanded'?

Just seeing if there is a difference between 'asking for' and 'being offered', because all banks were offered help. There weren't demands.

Criticise the government, by all means, but get the reasoning right.

YAIYAM

I think that woman summed It up pretty well on Question Time last night in her answer to If MP's are not paid well will we not end up with poorer candidates.
She said "If that was the case and you got monkeys for paying peanuts why did it not work the other way round In that you would get geniuses for paying large amounts and bonuses"

Death n Taxes

MPs pay is a difficult topic. They are in my opinion underpaid and therefore we often get lesser candidates.

There are three types of MP in my opinion those who always wanted to be in politics regardless of money. These are mostly conservatives from monied families where income isn't important.

Those who fall into it because of their ideals these are often labour and liberals and in the past were often trade unionists. They often come from less affluent backgrounds and therefore the pay is good by there expectations.

Finally there are those who go into politics because they failed at something else very often the law. These MPs come from all backgrounds and are the ones I have most issues with as they are most likely to line their pockets when leaving pariament.

I appreciate this is a massive generalisation but it is my perception.

Take our former leader Mr Blair started our as a barrister. Talk to anyone who ever instructed him and they will tell you that unlike his wife he was medicore at best. The bar wasn't for hima nd therefore he went into politics and is now linning his pockets.

Why would a good lawyer go into politics when they can make 250000 ayear in the city and many make a million plus. We therefore get politicians who don't aspire to this because they aren't good enough. Pay them more and we might attract the better lawyers instead.

This is not political as I think Neil Hamilton was also a failed lawyer so failed lawyers will happily take either side to line their pockets.

I say this as a lawyer myself and my view comes from comments within the profession about many lawyers who are now MPs..

Jimbob

[quote="Darren"]Would someone kindly put on here what the bankers 'demanded'?

[quote]

Come on Darrenm. Argue in favour of the bailout if you like but don't let's pretend the bankers didn't demand anything! The government didn't just hand out billions of poiunds to be spent on bonuses without havingh pressure put on them did they. I am, and always have been 100% against the banking bailout and any other bailout for that matter. Banks are private companies and if they are irresponsible then they should pay the ultimate price. Instead, what happened was these merchant bankers, city boys, free marketeers who were all too happy to rake in profit when the going was good giving no thought to the consequences of their actions have now become raging lefties and are suddenly in favour of state intervention. That's called having your cake and eating it I'm afraid! It's wrong, it's immoral and they should pay!!

YAIYAM

dogsaver

Death n Taxes

labour didn't get the kicking you might expect in Glasgow last night. whilst i expected a labour win you would have thought a smaller majority as is often the case with by elections.

The seat borderd a seat which the SNP took in a by-election last year.

It gives some hope to my hung parliament bet.

Death n Taxes