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Ayr Gold Cup
Selection - EXCLAMATION to Win @ 40/1
+ I think it will dry out to soft ground by Saturday with the reasonable weather forecast. Exclamation has proven form on soft ground. This trip suits him well.
+ I understand he is also entered for the Group 2 Diadem sprint at Ascot the following week which I think gives an indication of how highly he is rated
+ Should he make the race I think he would go off around 12/1 so am willing to take the risk at almost 4 times the price antepost for a smallish stake.
+ In my opinion the horse's run at Kempton last time out allegedly had the appearance of schooling in public as he hadn't been on the racetrack for several months and it looked like Mr Meehan just wanted to refresh him for a forthcoming target.
'started slowly, always in rear, hanging right from over 2f out, never a factor'
+ Having already slammed the progressive and talented Corrybrough by 3 lengths last season, I am hopeful he has plenty more left in the locker
HAYDOCK
28 September 2007
Soft
2:45 JMC IT Maiden Stakes (Div II) (Class 5) (2yo) 6f
[off 2:50] £2,169.79, £645.54, £322.61, £161.14
Draw TRAINER Age Wgt JOCKEY SP OR TS RPR
1 Exclamation 2 B J Meehan 2 9-0 Richard Hughes 3/1F 0 76 85+
2 3½ Corrybrough 14 H Candy 2 9-0 Dane O´Neill 9/2 0 65 74
3 ½ Spice Trade 1 J Noseda 2 9-0 Martin Dwyer 6/1 0 64 73
4 1½ ' (IRE) 7 B W Hills 2 9-0 Michael Hills 4/1 0 59 68
5 1¾ Peter´s Storm (USA) 13 K A Ryan 2 9-0 N Callan 16/1 0 53 63
6 2½ Gainshare 11 T D Barron 2 9-0 Paul Fessey 40/1 0 45 55
7 4 Bahamian Lad 6 R Hollinshead 2 8-9 Russell Kennemore(5) 7/1 0 31 43
8 3½ Cross Fell (USA) 12 M Johnston 2 9-0 Greg Fairley 18/1 0 20 33
9 ½ Patthepainter (GER) 10 K R Burke 2 8-7 Declan Cannon(7) 16/1 0 18 31
10 2½ Feeling Lucky (IRE) 9 W Jarvis 2 9-0 Seb Sanders 9/1 0 9 24
11 7 Captain Turbot (IRE) 4 D W Barker 2 9-0 Tony Hamilton 100/1 0 — —
12 shd Emerald Toffee (IRE) 5 J T Stimpson 2 9-0 Micky Fenton 100/1 0 — —
13 2 Charlie Oxo 8 B P J Baugh 2 9-0 T G McLaughlin 200/1 0 — —
13 ran TIME 1m 15.82s (slow by 3.02s) TOTAL SP 121%
RP - There was plenty to like about the debut effort of EXCLAMATION at Newbury eight weeks ago, and he fulfilled that promise with a very pleasing display. Surging through to lead inside the last furlong, he drifted a fair way to his right, ending up on the stands' rails, but the further he went the better he looked, and he seems a decent prospect.
+ He has the big field form having won a valuable handicap in a huge field towards the backend of last season;
NEWMARKET
05 October 2007
Good
2:40 £250000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes (Class 2) (2yo) 6f
[off 2:42] £189,390.87, £75,756.34, £37,839.71, £22,726.90, £15,112.82, £7,575.64, £7,575.64, £7,575.64, £7,575.64, £7,575.64
Draw TRAINER Age Wgt JOCKEY SP OR TS RPR
1 Exclamation 13 B J Meehan 2 8-13 Jamie Spencer 13/2 0 96 97
2 nk Anosti 30 K A Ryan 2 8-2 D O´Donohoe 12/1 0 84 85
3 1¼ Copywriter 24 J H M Gosden 2 8-13 Jimmy Fortune 100/30F 0 91 92
4 ½ Terry´s Tip (IRE) 26 Mrs L Stubbs 2 8-7 Tom Eaves 100/1 0 84 84
5 nk Perfect Act 29 C G Cox 2 8-4 Martin Dwyer 8/1 0 80 80
6 shd Gaspar Van Wittel (USA) 9 N A Callaghan 2 9-1 Dane O´Neill 8/1 101 91 91+
7 ¾ Fanatical 5 E F Vaughan 2 8-4 Richard Kingscote 8/1 0 77 77+
8 shd Eastern Gift (GB) 2 R Hannon 2 9-1 Ryan Moore 11/1 0 88 88+
9 ½ Bosun Breese 10 P W D´Arcy 2 8-9 L P Keniry 40/1 79 81 80
10 hd Archived (IRE) 25 M G Quinlan 2 8-7 Eddie Ahern 40/1 85 78 78
11 ¾ Cat Whistle 18 R A Fahey 2 8-8 Paul Hanagan 20/1 73 77 76
12 shd Wise Son 17 W J Haggas 2 8-11 Kerrin McEvoy 66/1 0 79 79
13 nk Jebel Tara 4 C E Brittain 2 8-7 t Hayley Turner 25/1 88 74 74+
14 shd Ellemujie 23 D K Ivory 2 8-8 1 Pat Dobbs 33/1 79 75 75
15 shd Loyal Knight (IRE) 11 S Kirk 2 8-7 Francis Norton 80/1 0 74 73
16 ½ Rash Judgement 3 W S Kittow 2 8-11 Fergus Sweeney 20/1 0 76 76+
17 ½ Errigal Lad 19 K A Ryan 2 9-1 N Callan 25/1 0 79 78
18 hd Thought Is Free 14 J S Moore 2 8-8 John Egan 22/1 92 71 71
19 ½ Another Decree 1 M Dods 2 8-11 Philip Robinson 100/1 0 72 72+
20 ¾ Prince Desire (IRE) 12 B W Hills 2 9-1 b Michael Hills 33/1 0 74 74
21 1½ Geoffdaw 16 M J Wallace 2 8-7 Chris Catlin 100/1 75 61 61
22 nk Dry Speedfit (IRE) 20 G G Margarson 2 8-11 T Quinn 50/1 0 64 64
23 nk Cracking (IRE) 27 R Hannon 2 9-3 Richard Hughes 40/1 93 69 69
24 1½ Maximus Aurelius (IRE) 22 J Jay 2 9-1 Luke Morris 100/1 0 63 62
25 shd Magical Speedfit (IRE) 21 G G Margarson 2 8-11 T P Queally 100/1 82 58 58
26 hd Dhhamaan (IRE) 8 C E Brittain 2 8-5 Paul Doe 100/1 0 52 51+
27 2 Feeling Proud (USA) 7 Jane Chapple-Hyam 2 8-6 T P O´Shea 100/1 80 46 46
28 2 Graceful Descent (FR) 28 R A Fahey 2 8-4 Dale Gibson 66/1 0 38 37
28 ran TIME 1m 12.63s (slow by 1.83s) TOTAL SP 133%
RP - EXCLAMATION was one of the dark horses,coming off a ready maiden win after doing it all wrong at the start in a hot Newbury maiden on his debut. He raced on the inside-rail wing of the middle group and again hung badly right under pressure to end with the nine who raced nearest the inside rail. The trouble with winning from two higher-rated rivals is that he is going to have to make a step up in class, but he is progressive.
+ His two victories came at the end of September and in early October last season so he is capable of producing his best form at this time of the year.
+ It appears to me that he is progressive and Brian Meehan has targeted this race for him for a long while but we shall see. Should he line up for the race in a decent draw he would be around a 12/1 chance in my view.
- Mr Spencer is likely to be in he plate and it's anyone's guess if he will ride like a hero or villain.
- There is a chance he will bypass the race but that is why I have bet to win and not for a huge liability.
- He may be given a poor draw, but at the price it is worth a little gamble antepost in my opinion.
Recommended Bet: Exclamation to Win The Ayr Gold Cup Antepost at 40/1 with Ladbrokes
Regards.
Swagger
I have also had a very small EW bet at 40/1 so if the horse places it would cover the Win stake.
Regards.
Swagger
I was obviously disappointed to see Exclamation not make the final decs for whatever reason, but I also liked TURNKEY when I initially looked through the race however I didn't give him a second thought as I simply couldn't see him making the cut.
He has and 28/1 is a huge price with Bet365 who offer 5 places on the EW selection and the best price is guaranteed.
His form with soft or worse conditions from 10 runs is;
1st = twice
2nd = twice
3rd = twice
unplaced = four times
He runs off a decent mark of 93 and Adele takes 7 lbs off, stays 7 furlongs and revels in heavy ground.
He is therefore the pick of the Nicholls runners off his featherweight for me.
The draw bias can change from one day to the next, all the pace seems to be low so he should tuck into the back of the pack with Patavellian, Tamagin and all the rest of them forcing the pace. I think he has an ok draw as he will be held up to attack late as over half the field will hate the conditions and underperform or simply not get home - it's going to be very testing.
