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If one was to start gambling 'professionally', how much capital (betting bank) do forumites think would be required to start off with?
To make a living; how many bets per day/week would be needed? And what % of betting bank should be a) a 'normal' bet and b) a maximum bet?
And how long do we think it should realistically, on average, take to double a betting bank?
Opinions please!
YAIYAM
questions back would be
What is the persons out goings per month i.e mortgage, food etc etc
How much would they like to average per month
Owl of Minerva
YAIYAM wrote:
questions back would be
What is the persons out goings per month i.e mortgage, food etc etc
How much would they like to average per month
Lets say:
Outgoings = £800 per month
Would like to earn £1200 per month
value seeker
Wouldnt mind it myself ,going pro that is ,but play the safe option.its not the time to take chances ,in the present climate.
I have been on betfair for about two years now and must admit i am getting a lot better,but you only learn through your mistakes ,but losing money will actually help.i have a sign next to the computer it says .laying an outsider think twice remember cousin vinny and a picture of him winning at the festival last year.
I listened to the trainer saying he fancied others more in his yard,so laid him for a score ,it swiped £177 out my account ,but boy did it teach me a lesson
archie mackenzie
yaiyam
may i ask in your experience of punting on the nags has a semi-pro/pro
how often do you find the right punting opportunitys???
i guess theres over 1,000 races (both codes) to punt on in a year so i would guess it would be a pretty high % to make some candy
that make any sense??? probably not cheers archie.
Sky_Of_Darkness
Owl of Minerva wrote:
YAIYAM wrote:
questions back would be
What is the persons out goings per month i.e mortgage, food etc etc
How much would they like to average per month
Lets say:
Outgoings = £800 per month
Would like to earn £1200 per month
Is that you'd like 1200 / month, or 2K / month in order to pay your outgoings and have the 1200 over?
Owl of Minerva
Sky_Of_Darkness wrote:
Owl of Minerva wrote:
YAIYAM wrote:
questions back would be
What is the persons out goings per month i.e mortgage, food etc etc
How much would they like to average per month
Lets say:
Outgoings = £800 per month
Would like to earn £1200 per month
Is that you'd like 1200 / month, or 2K / month in order to pay your outgoings and have the 1200 over?
1200pm w/ 400 left over. And then gradually building up that 1200 figure. Can easily live on 1200 initially
Sky_Of_Darkness
Owl of Minerva wrote:
Sky_Of_Darkness wrote:
Owl of Minerva wrote:
YAIYAM wrote:
questions back would be
What is the persons out goings per month i.e mortgage, food etc etc
How much would they like to average per month
Lets say:
Outgoings = £800 per month
Would like to earn £1200 per month
Is that you'd like 1200 / month, or 2K / month in order to pay your outgoings and have the 1200 over?
1200pm w/ 400 left over. And then gradually building up that 1200 figure. Can easily live on 1200 initially
My opinion is that if you want to earn 1200 / month, which equates to 300 / week (averaging 4 weeks / month), so 60 quid / day - you'd need no more than 1500 or 2K. Biggest issue would be discipline.
Earning 60 / day is EASY IMO. Means earning 65 / day on Betfair, assuming max 5% commission. Every day there are numerous horses, clearly not going to win, so for this requirement, lying is by far the simplest way to achieve your goal.
YAIYAM
archie mackenzie wrote:
yaiyam
may i ask in your experience of punting on the nags has a semi-pro/pro
how often do you find the right punting opportunitys???
i guess theres over 1,000 races (both codes) to punt on in a year so i would guess it would be a pretty high % to make some candy
that make any sense??? probably not cheers archie.
Bar the NH festivals 90% of my horse racing bets over the last year to 18 months have been on Irish Handicap Hurdle races with 16+ runners and if you look at March there have only been approx 10 so it cuts down a lot of work
accajacca
Sky_Of_Darkness wrote:
My opinion is that if you want to earn 1200 / month, which equates to 300 / week (averaging 4 weeks / month), so 60 quid / day - you'd need no more than 1500 or 2K. Biggest issue would be discipline.
Earning 60 / day is EASY IMO. Means earning 65 / day on Betfair, assuming max 5% commission. Every day there are numerous horses, clearly not going to win, so for this requirement, lying is by far the simplest way to achieve your goal.
i would attempt not to risk more than 2% of your bank on any trade.
i would also avoid setting daily targets - what's the point? just creates unnecessary pressure to find action where there isn't any - or let's you be lazy on a day when you've made a few quid but there are opportunities everywhere.
i'm no sports gambling pro, but my financial trading account does ok and i'm planning on taking it a lot more seriously over the next few years - and these are rules i don't plan on breaking where i can avoid it.
i might be wrong, but laying no hopers (presumably at decent odds) to win a fixed amount each day using a relatively modest bank sounds like an inevitable blow up recipe to me.
if you can make £1200 per month using £1500, that is an implied monthly return of 80% after commission.
if you can achieve those figures for a year, liquidity allowing, your compound profit would be £1,733,747.
unfortunately it think it is DIFFICULT
to profit £15k per year in steady growth (not hitting an acca or blowing up at any stage, just solid growth with sensible expected losing streaks etc) i would be impressed by anyone who had less than £30k available to bet.
that's not to say of course you couldn't start with much less and build it up.
good luck
AJ
Owl of Minerva
A rough model that I had in mind with some slightly more realistic figures I think. £1000 a month is probably my minimum outgoings:
£5k bank to start
Ave. profit target per month: £1200 (£40 per day based on 30 day month)
Standard/average bet: 2% of bank (£100)
Average 4 bets per day: £400 per day turnover
Aim for 10% profit on turnover = £40 per day profit = £1200 per month profit
Standing order of £1000 every month from betting bank to current a/c for living expenses = £200 left over each month = £2400 profit left over after all expenses in years 1 and 2 =
By end of year 2, betting bank at approx £10k - therefore increase standard/average bet to £200 (still 2% of bank) and keep on building.
Sounds pretty simple Main concern is whether or not 10% profit on turnover is realistic? And whether it is possible/sensible/realisitc to 'aim' for 4 bets a day/£400 turnover per day? To be honest I am not sure so any advice/opinions/stats would be welcome please.
Thanks, Owl
PS: It's unlikely I'll do much/any laying, at least not initially
lochsong
I reckon you'd have to be very focused and watch racing every day.
I'd be more inclined to focus on the big meets - Aintree coming up!
YAIYAM
With racing it is easy to focus on certain types of racing thus cutting the amount of information you actually have to know.
I watch All weather racing if it is on the TV in front of me however I rarely bet on it((usually tips from stables, (trainers & gamblers only)) and never really look at the form of it, flat turf racing i never go below half decent handicaps and NH i don't bother with novice chases, bumpers, hunters etc etc.
If you do this type of thing it cuts out a whole lot of pointless form studying
david-uk
lochsong wrote:
I reckon you'd have to be very focused and watch racing every day.
I'd be more inclined to focus on the big meets - Aintree coming up!
Very true Lochsong,
Gambling on horses to win money is a full time profession. The amount of horses they go under the radar because we are destracted by other areas of life is unreal.
I often say to a group of betting buddies, its a full time game.
Owl,
When are thinking of doing this?
I think your approach is well thought out and do reckon you could make a profit from racing, you will need to build in real discipline and like YY says only bet on certain types of races from the outset.
alansouthcoast
Sky_Of_Darkness wrote:
lying is by far the simplest way to achieve your goal.
This suprises me as you seem so honest
Flatz
Owl,
Are you just restricting yourself to horse-racing, or considering dabbling in a variety of sports? I am sure that you could make reasonable money on footy, golf, tennis and darts just to name a few.
Cheers
Flatz
Sky_Of_Darkness
alansouthcoast wrote:
Sky_Of_Darkness wrote:
lying is by far the simplest way to achieve your goal.
This suprises me as you seem so honest
Maybe my typo is accurate though. Crime does pay?
Sky_Of_Darkness
accajacca wrote:
Sky_Of_Darkness wrote:
My opinion is that if you want to earn 1200 / month, which equates to 300 / week (averaging 4 weeks / month), so 60 quid / day - you'd need no more than 1500 or 2K. Biggest issue would be discipline.
Earning 60 / day is EASY IMO. Means earning 65 / day on Betfair, assuming max 5% commission. Every day there are numerous horses, clearly not going to win, so for this requirement, lying is by far the simplest way to achieve your goal.
i would attempt not to risk more than 2% of your bank on any trade.
i would also avoid setting daily targets - what's the point? just creates unnecessary pressure to find action where there isn't any - or let's you be lazy on a day when you've made a few quid but there are opportunities everywhere.
i'm no sports gambling pro, but my financial trading account does ok and i'm planning on taking it a lot more seriously over the next few years - and these are rules i don't plan on breaking where i can avoid it.
i might be wrong, but laying no hopers (presumably at decent odds) to win a fixed amount each day using a relatively modest bank sounds like an inevitable blow up recipe to me.
if you can make £1200 per month using £1500, that is an implied monthly return of 80% after commission.
if you can achieve those figures for a year, liquidity allowing, your compound profit would be £1,733,747.
to profit £15k per year in steady growth (not hitting an acca or blowing up at any stage, just solid growth with sensible expected losing streaks etc) i would be impressed by anyone who had less than £30k available to bet.
that's not to say of course you couldn't start with much less and build it up.
good luck
AJ
Some comments in response.
1. Didn't mention laying no-hopers (ie those trading at massvice prices)
2. I tend not to agree with the 2% comment, but that's just a personal preference, so each to their own.
3. Wasn't setting daily targets as a fixed regime, but was breaking it down to show what was required. It all depends on opportunities. Some days you may make 85, some 35 etc.
"if you can make £1200 per month using £1500, that is an implied monthly return of 80% after commission." No idea of the relevance of this comment. I tend not to include any standard business expectations in how I trade, but again each to their own.
"if you can achieve those figures for a year, liquidity allowing, your compound profit would be £1,733,747." Dont even understand this. Owl asked to make 1200 / month, so that's just over 14K / year. What are your figures referring to?
YAIYAM
Owl the figure i think you should be looking at is firstly have the amount saved to pay those monthly out goings so if it is £1000pm then have something like £6,000 to £12,000 to cover you for at least 6 months and keep this seperate.
Then have at least another £5,000(more if possible but not essential) for the gambling part that to me is about as much as you need to start
accajacca
Some comments in response.
wasn't having a go, just offering a different point of view. my thoughts as follows;
1. Didn't mention laying no-hopers (ie those trading at massvice prices)
i just assumed when you said horses that obviously won't win you were talking about horses at decent prices. i did say presumably but obviously i presumed wrong. all i would say is that there can't be that many shorties that "obviously" won't win, even to the very best layer's eyes.
2. I tend not to agree with the 2% comment, but that's just a personal preference, so each to their own.
indeed
3. Wasn't setting daily targets as a fixed regime, but was breaking it down to show what was required. It all depends on opportunities. Some days you may make 85, some 35 etc.
sure, then we agree
"if you can make £1200 per month using £1500, that is an implied monthly return of 80% after commission." No idea of the relevance of this comment. I tend not to include any standard business expectations in how I trade, but again each to their own.
the relevance is that if you're doing it as a profession you need to be able to analyse your own performance (or at least i try to when trading) and set realistic targets. building your bank by 80% in a month is, in my opinion, unrealistic. but maybe that's because i couldn't do it - if anyone can then good luck to them. i know a few pros (all of whom run sports books themselves and bet only on what they know inside out) and i'd be surprised if they targeted a tenth of that growth.
"if you can achieve those figures for a year, liquidity allowing, your compound profit would be £1,733,747." Dont even understand this. Owl asked to make 1200 / month, so that's just over 14K / year. What are your figures referring to?
what i'm saying is that if you think it is easy to make 80% in month one, i can't see any reason why it wouldn't be equally easy to make money in month two, three, four, etc. if you took nothing out of your pot and continued to make an "easy" 80%, after a year you would have a profit on the account of £1,733,747 (with the caveat that after a few months liquidity might get a bit tight). in other words, if you think it is easy to make £1200 in a month with a starting pot of £1500, there is really no reason you shouldn't have half a million quid in your account in a year's time. i don't think it's easy or realistic to expect those returns, so would suggest a higher starting pot - that's all.
cheers
AJ
[/b]
Sky_Of_Darkness
accajacca wrote:
Some comments in response.
wasn't having a go, just offering a different point of view. my thoughts as follows;
1. Didn't mention laying no-hopers (ie those trading at massvice prices)
i just assumed when you said horses that obviously won't win you were talking about horses at decent prices. i did say presumably but obviously i presumed wrong. all i would say is that there can't be that many shorties that "obviously" won't win, even to the very best layer's eyes.
2. I tend not to agree with the 2% comment, but that's just a personal preference, so each to their own.
indeed
3. Wasn't setting daily targets as a fixed regime, but was breaking it down to show what was required. It all depends on opportunities. Some days you may make 85, some 35 etc.
sure, then we agree
"if you can make £1200 per month using £1500, that is an implied monthly return of 80% after commission." No idea of the relevance of this comment. I tend not to include any standard business expectations in how I trade, but again each to their own.
the relevance is that if you're doing it as a profession you need to be able to analyse your own performance (or at least i try to when trading) and set realistic targets. building your bank by 80% in a month is, in my opinion, unrealistic. but maybe that's because i couldn't do it - if anyone can then good luck to them. i know a few pros (all of whom run sports books themselves and bet only on what they know inside out) and i'd be surprised if they targeted a tenth of that growth.
"if you can achieve those figures for a year, liquidity allowing, your compound profit would be £1,733,747." Dont even understand this. Owl asked to make 1200 / month, so that's just over 14K / year. What are your figures referring to?
what i'm saying is that if you think it is easy to make 80% in month one, i can't see any reason why it wouldn't be equally easy to make money in month two, three, four, etc. if you took nothing out of your pot and continued to make an "easy" 80%, after a year you would have a profit on the account of £1,733,747 (with the caveat that after a few months liquidity might get a bit tight). in other words, if you think it is easy to make £1200 in a month with a starting pot of £1500, there is really no reason you shouldn't have half a million quid in your account in a year's time. i don't think it's easy or realistic to expect those returns, so would suggest a higher starting pot - that's all.
cheers
AJ
[/b]
OK - get what you mean by your compound profit scenario, but that's why I commented that 'discipline' would be the biggest issue. Getting greedy and upping stakes etc. This would be something to look at as an option after a long period of profits. As you mention too, the market liquidity wouldn't support the continuous upping of stake to maintain the said 80% return. I would also add, market liquidity is often a factor in laying a horse.
BTW - didn't take your post at all as 'having a go'.
kickingkyle
From my little experience i thnk theres prbably 3 things you need to go pro, 1) Starting bank 2) Annual target 3) Discipline, all as important as eachother, if you have that target in mine for the year it doesnt make you bet everyday but it does mean you need to pay yopur bills and would need money as YY states. For me personally discipline is the hardest thing. Owl picks plenty of winners and im sure with the right discipline could do well. BUT theres no point saying il have 4 bets a day at £100, if theres nothing you fancy, dont bet! IF theres something you think is overpriced and a great chance, bet bigger.
Owl of Minerva
The time has come . . . . . . .
Quitting a decent job with good prospects, great pension/share options, where I have a good reputation etc. in the middle of a fierce recession probably isn't most peoples idea of a great decision. Especially when I still have a fair few student related debts and not a massive amount of savings
But that's what I'm highly likely to do very soon. A bit nervous, but all in all quite excited and confident that I'm doing the right thing.
I'm not intending to be a full on pro gambler indefintely - indeed my principal reason for quitting is to set up my own business (nothing to do with gambling/horses). But that will probably take 9-12 months to fully establish so in the meantime I'll be making a living predominantly through betting. I've had enough consistent success with the horses over the past 6mths to convince myself that I can do well - however sitting in front of a computer screen gambling all day isn't something I'd want to do indefintely - so hopefully by next summer I'll be ready to make my millions with my new business venture
Sorry to ramble but just thought I'd let you all know!
Owl
jennywales
Owl, I admire anyone who is prepared to make the commitment, give the time, and absorb the inherent risks. As you know, I gamble for fun not profit (profit is a bonus) and at monetary levels suitable for a pensioner! So VERY good luck in this, and if you want (only if you want!) keep us up to date with how you are doing.
All the best.
Machiavellian
Best of luck to you, Owl.
value seeker
Owl of Minerva wrote:
The time has come . . . . . . .
Quitting a decent job with good prospects, great pension/share options, where I have a good reputation etc. in the middle of a fierce recession probably isn't most peoples idea of a great decision. Especially when I still have a fair few student related debts and not a massive amount of savings
But that's what I'm highly likely to do very soon. A bit nervous, but all in all quite excited and confident that I'm doing the right thing.
I'm not intending to be a full on pro gambler indefintely - indeed my principal reason for quitting is to set up my own business (nothing to do with gambling/horses). But that will probably take 9-12 months to fully establish so in the meantime I'll be making a living predominantly through betting. I've had enough consistent success with the horses over the past 6mths to convince myself that I can do well - however sitting in front of a computer screen gambling all day isn't something I'd want to do indefintely - so hopefully by next summer I'll be ready to make my millions with my new business venture
Sorry to ramble but just thought I'd let you all know!
Owl
Best of luck ,wouldnt mind trying it myself got 38 years in a company ,there is the thought of as I am on a final salary scheme ,would think of it in two years.
Have a read of winning on betfair for dummies ,got the updated version this week in waterstones for £9.99
Chapter 13 is going pro ,page 123,it really is informative ,the book pays for itself ,as well as telling what not to do ,more important than what to do.
He gives a seven day account of his betting ,which is quite good.
alansouthcoast
Good luck with this Owl. I would love to take a chance myself, although I think to do it justice you need a decent starting bank, to allow for losses.
Owl of Minerva
alansouthcoast wrote:
Good luck with this Owl. I would love to take a chance myself, although I think to do it justice you need a decent starting bank, to allow for losses.
Cheers guys. Yes I haven't got quite as much as I wanted ideally - about £8k, would have liked £10-12k - but I think I'll be ok
Napha
When you intending to start or have you not given your notice in yet?
Owl of Minerva
Napha wrote:
When you intending to start or have you not given your notice in yet?
Will hand in my notice in next couple of weeks so will start properly in approx 6 weeks time
LongJ0n
Good luck with this Owl, much respect to you mate.
shamardal84
Good luck with this Owl, you are one of the very few posters who I actually think could make this work. I remember your column was nearly had a big priced winner every week. Hopefully that trend will continue
alansouthcoast
shamardal84 wrote:
Good luck with this Owl, you are one of the very few posters who I actually think could make this work. I remember your column was nearly had a big priced winner every week. Hopefully that trend will continue
Agreed Sham, the rest of us are just crap.
The_Pilgarlic
Good luck Owl.
Was thinking while I read the racing thread on RP site charges that surely you would be able to offset that cost as a business expense
shamardal84
alansouthcoast wrote:
shamardal84 wrote:
Good luck with this Owl, you are one of the very few posters who I actually think could make this work. I remember your column was nearly had a big priced winner every week. Hopefully that trend will continue
Agreed Sham, the rest of us are just crap.
Well I didnt want to personally name you, but....
lochsong
Good luck Owl.
Owl of Minerva
Just thought I should give you all a quick update on this. Rather than type out a whole new post I'll just copy in a PM I sent to Alan the other day after he asked me how things were going;
Quote:
Hi Alan
Hope you're well.
Have put the pro gambling plans on hold for a bit. Had a few unforseen outgoings in the past month and basically just don't think I have a big enough 'bank' to confidently go pro. So I'm sticking with my job for a couple more months and reviewing the situation then.
Also, I took a bit of time off work a few weeks ago to have a 'trial period' of pro gambling. And although I did OK financially I have to say I didn't particluarly enjoy it. Just found I was a bit bored! And found it a bit depressing sat around on my own all day.
So I guess I'll just see how I feel in a couple of months time. As I mentioned on the 'Going Pro' thread I'm also starting to make plans to set up my own business, and that is my main priority. Although I think I could make a success of pro gambling, I just don't know if it's worth doing it in my current circumstances.
So all in all, I've not a clue what I'm doing or going to do! At a bit of a crossroads as they say
Thanks for asking anyway
alansouthcoast
I think its sensible to have a decent bank Owl. Hopefully the business takes off anf you can go semi-pro at least.
cheers archie.
