HQ Champion Stakes

Swagger · HQ Champion Stakes

I couldn't see a thread for this so thought I would start this one. I have no idea what the stats are for this race either. I know Lenahan has also tipped and backed the fella below: -

NEVER ON SUNDAY

I think this is one of the bets of the flat season, and it just so happens to come in the very backend.

The first starting point is to look at the likely opposition. It is highly likely that Sea The Stars, Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman will bypass the race for a tilt at the BC Classic/Mile. Crowded House has been put away for the season, Presvis looks like continuing his international campaign, which in reality doesn't leave you with many challenges.

Zacinto - the current favourite is weak on betfair and has drifted out in the market with Stan James implying that he could also head for the BC Turf Mile. Further, he is not a Group 1 winner to date and although he looks like he would appreciate further, he is not proven over 10 furlongs. His last run may have flattered him a little as the pace was fast early on which put paid to Aqlaam's chances and Delegator didn't get home and in I think the Rip was merely idling at the front and won easily enough in the end by over a length. There could be a lot more to come from this horse, but over an unknown trip and at the price I'm willing to look elsewhere.

Sariska - She doesn't appeal to me in any way for this race. She looked tired last time out, whatever excuse Michael Bell gave (even being in season, etc), she never travelled like she had done previously and looked to be beaten fair and square in the end by Dar Re Mi as far as I'm concerned. I remember the great Russian Rhythm flopping in the Champion Stakes after a long hard season for a filly.

In saying that and, I might be contradicting myself here, I think the main danger to Never On Sunday would be Rainbow View if she ran. I had not been convinced that she had trained on since last season until her last run which was arguably her best run of her career, and it would be just like the Goz to bok everyone in a race like this. She has a bit to find on form, but unlike Sariska, she would go into the race on the back of arguably her best form to date. Should she not run at HQ, I would be backing her in whatever race she is entered for during the BC. I think she is the type of horse that will come good at this time of the year.

I'm not sure if Jimmy Tarbuck is pricing up the market but Twice Over is shorter than Never On Sunday. The latter beat the former in the Prince of Wales when everything went wrong for him. He will beat him again at HQ. Twice Over will remain a Group 2 horse, as will Pipedreamer.

Some horses are just not Group 1 horses. Pipedreamer and Twice Over are classic examples. They are very good horses but just shy of Group 1 ability. Pipedreamer could not win one of the worst Eclipse's I have ever seen so he won't be winning this race.

Mawatheeq has it all to prove in Group 1 company and I'm not sure a step down in trip will suit.

Never On Sunday has already Virtual and would do so again. Campanologist is likely to run in the BC, Pressing will never win a Group 1 in England and surely Doctor Fremantle won't run, even if he did he would have to step up from Group 2 form.

Alpine Rose would have to be respected as the French have a good record in this race of late, but I would rather back a colt and her last run would have to be seen as disappointing.

Which other than any supplemented horses to come, leaves us with Never On Sunday. A Group 1 Winner over 9 Furlongs and a Group 3 Winner over 10 Furlongs in France. He ran a great race in the Prince Of Wales when he got badly worked up in the preliminaries and ran wide for the entire race only to go down to Tarten Bearer by a neck and a further neck to Vision Detet. I also think Christophe Lemaire had a rare knightmare in the plate and would arguably have won had he not run via the M25. I think the straight 10 furlongs will really suit him, Rouget of course trained Literato who won the corresponding race 2 years ago and he explained the horse had a problem during his last run where he was disappointing but is fresh and well now. I think there is more to come from this horse and considering the likely non-runners and small select field, 9/1 EW antepost looks the bet and I could see him starting as 7/2 second favourite on the day.

Regards

theGoingStick

Nice write up Swagger and I think that's a nice play on the race. I have doubts about the leaders of the market as well, I feel the step up in trip wont suit Zacinto and Sariska is very ground dependant and the 3yo fillies of this season have disappointed me and are no match for the 3yo colts and older horses.

Owl of Minerva

Agree with you Swagger that NOS looks a very solid play. Judging by Betfair market it certainly looks like Zacinto could go for the BC Mile and Pipedreamer also looks an unlikely runner. Never been a Sariska fan so keen to take her on. Twice Over; Grp 2 horse as you say. 8/1 looks a great price - going to go and help myself to some of that!

david-uk

I think never on sunday beat Twice over a neck in the POW so theres very little in it, both are really Group 2 horses in my opinion, NOS win in the french was a G2 in all but name, Goldie would not have been anywhere near her best and the distance was wrong for her. The POW was a poor race as it turns out and defo not out of the top draw.

Only two horses fit the winners category here and they are a mile clear, Zacinto in my opinion only needs to grace the track to win, will stay standing on its head, the breeding by Reams of verse puts the pedigree in place, and this horse has won on all grounds, and thats always a good sign. RVW would be 4/6 for this race and Zacinto gave him a massive fright, even if he was a little flattered by the small field. Zacinto is also a very lightly raced horse with no miles on the clock, Stoute would be mad in my opinion if he bypassed this penalty kick Group 1 and went to America. He should take this race and set a nice campaign for this horse next year, he should clear up over 10 furlongs. Currently 3.4/1 on Betfair and 5/2 Fav in most books, so its maybe in the balance.

Only Sariska is only in the same league possibly, but she is a better filly over 12f, I dont think she is ground dependant as thats an easy excuse to make, she just prefers a little cut, however she still beat a good filly in Midday in the Oaks. I do think Bell is a bit picky with her, but you would be, she is a Dual Group 1 winning filly and they dont come along often. But in all honesty Zacinto will smash her to bits if he runs.

pericolo topo

I also reckon this revolves around Zacinto's participation & think he'll waltz up if he runs - the form with RVW is solid as you like. The Stoute team have the BC mile in mind for him since Goldikova ran less than well on Saturday; they seem to think they have other possible winners in the field and I wouldn't be surprised to see them rely on one of them - Doctor Freemantle say - the same owners in his case and they're unlikely to run Twice Over, Zacinto and DF. Still, why give up a very very good shot at a group 1 - well, because the BC mile is more prestigious I suppose.

I thought Ghanaati ran ok on her return and took a while to get moving in the Sun Chariot, felt to me like she could do with further. The firms & betfair markets suggest she won't run but I've seen nothing definite in the media, have you?

I picked the wrong Frenchie (backed NOS) in the PoW and agree that the from is a bit ropey, the bottom line is that, whilst a good horse usually gets this, it could turn into a group 2 in all but name unless Zacinto runs. I admit that does Sariska a severe disservice...

Whilst I have a bit on Zacinto & Ghanaati ante-post it's time to keep the powder dry.

Some trends to think about...

13/13 Recent winners ran in Group 1s previously
11/13 Placed top 3 in a group 1.
11/13 Winners made the top 2 last time, the exceptions ran after a break since GoodWood.
9/13 Won a group race over 10f

... so group 1 form and preferably distance form pay well which rather points to Sariska, 'specially if Zacinto ducks it.

pericolo topo

Another one who's popped up with an interesting profile - Mawatheeq (Tregoning/Hamdan Al Maktoum). Absolutely stuffed Campanologist in a group 3 and could be interesting if supplemented....

david-uk

Well if you backed Zacinto like I did, he's out of the Champion Stakes.. Stoute has rerouted him to the Breeders Cup Mile.

Swagger

lenahan

My thoughts were the same re Never On Sunday. Always felt Zacinto would be Breeders Bound.

But....

The Spanner has just been thrown into the works:

Fame & Glory is Running!

And if close to form he will be very very tough to beat.

http://www.irishracing.com/v5newsitem?prid=40470

Fame And Glory heads Ballydoyle team for Newmarket

Irish Derby winner Fame And Glory will be amongst the Aidan O'Brien contingent heading to Newmarket next weekend having shown no ill-effects from his exertions in last Sunday's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.
O’Brien is due to run the talented three-year-old who like so many had Sea The Stars as a nemesis this season and he may be joined in the race by Set Sail.

Speaking at the Curragh O’Brien revealed; “Fame And Glory will go to the Champion Stakes at Newmarket with Set Sail also a possible runner.

“Fame And Glory came out of the Arc very well and we are happy with him since. Things didn’t work out for him in the Arc and we are looking forward to him running next weekend.”

O’Brien also revealed that he will be dual-handed in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes where the exciting Steinbeck will be joined in the field by fellow debut winner Fencing Brave.

Machiavellian

I assume they mean Fencing Master rather than Fighting Brave who was beaten at Dundalk on Friday evening.

theGoingStick

david-uk

[quote="lenahan"]My thoughts were the same re Never On Sunday. Always felt Zacinto would be Breeders Bound.

Always so easy to predcit after the event.

Owl of Minerva

Obviously not too happy that FaG is lining up after backing NOS but I'd still be keen to take FaG on at a short price. He's had a long season, didn't run that well in the Arc and really wants 12f. I like the look of this market with FaG and Sariska likely to be short prices but very beatable

lenahan

[quote="david-uk"]

david-uk

I do wish they would say the real reason Fame and Glory is running in the Champion Stakes, because he was given a Pish poor ride in the ARC and did not really have a race, he would not have won as we know, but to ride the horse the they he did and expect it to be close was just foolish.. I bet any money they get ot right this time!

Owl of Minerva

newyorktony

i really think FAG is a lay at odds on in this, he has had a long hard season and didnt travel great last time to me he is very beatable and i will be taking him on

BurntFingers

Had a big bet on Never on Sunday earlier on after the news of Zacinto's withdrawal, so I am a bit gutted that F&G now runs.

You'd have to think that it seems to be a bit of an after thought from Ballydoyle here. Other than Pride a few years ago, not many have won in similar circumstances i.e disappointing/unlucky Arc run, so thrown in at the top level a week later. O'Brien isn't a trainer to wonder 'what if' and generally runs his horses even if they appear to be over the top (Dylan Thomas' last few runs and Duke of Marmalade). This must count against F&G coupled with the long season he has had. However, saying that, he would only have to re-produce his Irish Champion run to take this, so I don't see the trip being an issue.

Makes it a hard race to weigh up as so many factors hinge on one horses well being. Maybe best to leave it alone from a punting perspective and just enjoy. They'll be other better betting propostions on the day in the shape of Silver Grecian in the Dewhurst .....

Swagger

On reflection, it has thrown a spanner in the works with Fame and Glory running but I'm not overly fussed. It can be hard to pace a race at Newmarket unless you have the speed. For example, Fame and Glory is a much slower horse than New Approach and he would do well to pull off a similar feat to Bolger's colt last season. Lets not forget Alamshar and Hurricane Run didn't appreciate the step back in trip and flopped in the Champion Stakes. I personally couldn't think of a race more unsuited to Fame and Glory but in saying that, he is the best horse in the race. Overall I'm not too displeased as Never On Sunday is 7lbs better with a strong pace which he should hopefully get now. I'm still very bullish that Never On Sunday will win, it just means that I could have backed him on Friday/Saturday when NRNB at nearly the same price rather than sweat my nuts off all week hoping he doesn't get a stone bruise...

Regards

Swagger

I agree with Owl and David that the reason why Fame and Glory is running is partly because he wasn't given good ride in the Arc when his jockey ignored the 2 pacemakers so they might take the view that he didn't really have a race. However, It may have seemed as though he has come out of his race really well but he has had 6 hard races and I personally think he will run a similiar race as Hurricane Run did a few years ago in the corresponding race. I think Owl is spot on in that they probably thought they couldn't win the Classic with him and I don't think the Turf would suit him so this was his last realistic chance of winning another Group 1 this season.

Regards.

Gorg_George

I quite like Doctor Fremantle in this at the prices.

pericolo topo

Me too David

, literally only a fiver for me, but that's quite a large Ante-post bet - it's not really my thing.

Being human I'm always looking for something to blame and that's Goldikova, if she'd bolted up last time they'd have been scared off from the BC with Zacinto. Ho Hum, but it possibly says more about what they thought of the opposition rather than the other Khalid Abdullah horses.

I thought that O'Brien would run Mastercraftsman or F&G in this but was happy to be against either at the time with Zacinto. Need to think about this some more but I remember Oratorio being rubbish here 4 or 5 years ago - stuffed out of sight by David Junior....

pericolo topo

ps not too sure about hard races for F&G (might have missed one here)....

Derby Trial (Derrinstown) - quite easy
Derby - a hard race certainly, but several have come out of it well, probably because of a slow pace and/or their class.
Irish Derby - Cruised to an easy victory

He then had quite a break, which is what happened to New Approach (though for different reasons)

Irish Champion - hit about 5 times then ridden to the line - quite a tough race
Arc - settled in midfield not running at much of a pace, as they quickened he was just ridden along then snatched up behind something in the last furlong otherwise he'd have placed quite comfortably. The resolution isn't good where I'm watching but don't think he was hit at any stage.

This race doesn't always go to the obvious, which is well known & why New Approach was backable at the frankly outrageous 6/4 last year. For me it depends on the opposition - 2nd in the market last year was Pipedreamer, which says it all.

Another apparent negative is that O'Brien has a dreadful record in this race as it is clearly an afterthought in most of his 3YO campaigns. Bear in mind he'd not won the PoW either until DoM just sneaked it last year...

Owl of Minerva

Ladbrokes standout top price 6/4 on FaG

Swagger

PT - Fair point. I should have been clearer. My view is that 6 races and still on the go in October is hard work in itself.

With regards to Fame And Glory actually having hard races, I think the Epsom Derby is always a hard race on a horse regardless of the pace, time, etc. Some horses come out of the race better than others of course but I still count it as a hard race. I think he had a hard race in the Irish Derby regardless of how it looked visually, the time was fast and I think he exerted himself during the race. I think he had a very hard race in the Irish Champion Stakes and this may have taken the edge of him in the Arc. Visually it may have looked differently but it was a very fast time and horses are not machines and this may have finished him off for the season. He didn't get a good ride in the Arc and people will argue that he barely had a race, etc but the travelling will have fluctuated his weight and collectively I am not surprised that Ladbrokes (Mike Dillon factor) are willing to lay him at 6/4. We can't compare New Approach to Fame and Glory for this race - New Approach had been laid out for one more run after he won the Irish Champion Stakes, it was likely to be the Champion Stakes at Newmarket given the break in between the races. I agree 6/4 was an amazing price when he should have been 2/5. As previously mentioned, this is a major afterthought by Coolmore in a desperate attempt to get a Group 1 over 10 furlongs for Fame and Glory. In my opinion, it's often when horses are rushed to run in Group 1 races as an afterthought that the short priced fav's get turned over.

Regards.

theGoingStick

Owl of Minerva

Looks like it could be good-firm on Saturday too which is against FAG and Sariska. I'm convinced that FAG will be turned over in this, and wouldn't be at all surprised if he was unplaced

david-uk

Owl of Minerva

david-uk

lenahan

BurntFingers

The fact that F&G has had 6 runs this season shouldn't be a problem (I don't think).

Nayef, Storming Home and David Junior were all having their 7th run when taking this race. Pride had quite a few as well.

This race is made for a shock, though. Looking through previous renewals ...

- Daylami got turned over in Alborada's first
- Montjeu lost out to Kalanasi
- Moon Ballad went down to Storming Home
- Ratki beat off the likes off Alamshar and Russian Rhythm
- Haafhd took care of Doyen and Azamour
And most recently ... David Junior saw off Oratorio

Terrible race for hot pots, hence the generous price on New Approach last year (saying that, NA had one of his worst races to date the race before when only scrapping home in the Irish Champion against Gp3 animals) and why bookies are looking to take a chance on F&G.

Still a facinating race in prospect (point taken about the standard, Dave, but it's been like that for a few years now) and I'm fairly happy still with my Never On Sunday bet. Alpine Rose is another I may look to back on the day as she wasn't knocked about too much the other week soon as it became clear her race was over ....

pericolo topo

david-uk

YAIYAM

From what he says below I would read into it that there is little chance she will run if there if the word Firm in the going description

MICHAEL BELL said on Monday that he was "mad keen" to run dual Oaks winner Sariska in the Emirates Airline Champion Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday, where she could clash with Fame And Glory.

The Investec Oaks and Darley Irish Oaks winner was one of 17 runners remaining in the 1m2f Group 1 after Monday's confirmation stage.

Bell said: "It is perfect ground at the moment and I hope it doesn't dry out too much. The days are shorter and it's cooler and there are heavy dews. The Rowley Mile does dry out. We are in a similar situation to the Arc in that we are mad keen to run but monitoring how much the ground does dry out.

"It shouldn't be as quick as it was at York but the thing with Newmarket, if it does dry out, is that they have got to come down the hill where they are really racing.

"We just hope it doesn't dry out because it wouldn't play to her strengths if it did. Good ground would be fine. Today we would be fine."

david-uk

lenahan

david-uk

gromero

Lemaire fit to ride Never On Sunday. Huge bonus.
Looking a cracking race again this year.

Swagger

theGoingStick

It's on the RP web site :-

newyorktony

bloody hell the computer is playing up

i just typed a big reason why i fancy sariska in this but all got deleted anyway

sariska 40win 9-2

Owl of Minerva

Far bigger field that i was expecting.

merrymozzer

Mawatheeq !

falbrav4ever

I backed Virtual with Stan James at 100-1 yesterday.

That is a completely stupid price for a horse that has a similar chance on the book to Twice over who is 10-1. Virtual didn't finish far behind Twice Over at Ascot having tried to make all and being headed at the two-furlong pole.

The third place behind Goldikova in the Marois doesn't read badly either.

As people have said, this is a weak renewal and 100-1 about this year's Lockinge winner (and thus a proven group 1 winner) is hard to fathom.

Should be a 16-1 shot at worst and arguably has a better chance than the thoroughly exposed Pipedreamer.

Falbrav

falbrav4ever

I see Jimmy Fortune has picked Virtual over Pipedreamer which is no surprise to me, but if Jimmy is any judge the odds on the pair are ar*e about face.

Pipedreamer is as short as 10-1 whilst you can still get 33s 1/4 odds with Stan James about Virtual.

It isn't 100-1 but it's still great value.

Falbrav

lenahan

Killer Stat

- 29/30 previous winners had either 50% wins OR 4+ G1 placed efforts.

That will leave you with only Mawatheeq, Never On Sunday, Fame & Glory and Sariska.

Twice over only fails due to his 1/2 length 4th to Never On Sunday in the POW at Ascot. Hed also pass all the other trends and given his course and trip record you could make a case for him. Ill be ruthless though and leave him out as the trends have you and besides i think Never On Sunday will uphold the form from that race.

Mawatheeeq can be gotten rid of by then failing a whole host of other trends. Thing is maybe he would have met them if the stable hadnt have been shut down for most the summer and hence he ran ? Interesting thought. Still being ruthless he has to go and his price looks plenty short enough to me on what hes actually achieved even factoring in potential.

Fame&Glory doesnt leave me with much to say than has already been said.Fails a few trends given his arc run. Thing is though if the ratings are correct and he runs close to his....what chance the others ?

Sariska.Doesnt fail too many trends. Just the concern over trip and ground. Not that major to me though imo and starting to look at great EW price.

Never On Sunday can be forgiven his last run as he came out of the race with a small problem and was running over an unsuitable trip in a top race. Other than that like Sariska he comes close to being a good trends fit and again at an EW price. Was always my initial fancy and surely this is Frances best chance of success this weekend? Out of the last 11 times the french have met the killer stat they have won 7 sevens. NOS is right in there on that basis.

This is actually a really tricky race imo to know what to do...i dont now even make anyone a place cert but ive got an antepost on NOS so ill certinaly be sticking with that. Sariska and NOS EW probably the way to go against FAG.

But yep sticking with NEVER ON SUNDAY 8/1 EW here. Dont see why he cant beat Sariska on this trip and ground. Muthaqweee is an unknown but hoping he cant improve by enough just yet to beat this frenchie. Leaves just FAG to beat and hoping the common theorys on him will play out.

newyorktony

i really think sariska will be very hard to beat in this, if her york run was below her best then to get within a lenght of dar ri me was a very good run and if you then take dar ri me arc run then that puts fame and glory and her at around the same level. now the big difference is one is 6-4 and one 11-2!! her trainer is very bullish and he is not one to talk up his horses in my eyes 11-2 is huge....

lenahan

Gorg_George

Dr Freemantle e/w @ 12/1 for me here, full of promise and hopefully can step up to the plate today.

newyorktony

just gone in again e/w at 9s thats huge

lochsong

GET IN TWICE OVER

GO HENRY

theGoingStick

It was a good training performance, I thought Twice Over was gone at the game.

david-uk

Well done whoever backed Twice over,

Another Richard Hills nightmare ride!

newyorktony

its great to see henry cecil win a group1

Gorg_George

Lovely horse and thoroughly deserved. Freemantle was my play and was never sited, never landed a blow. Don't think I heard Never On Sundays name either and I know lots of you on here fancied him at a price and considering he was backed off the boards hope some of you managed to get a little lay in @ 5/1 but what happened to him, i didn't track him througyh the race? Very odd race. Massive mention to Sariska and Fallon, how he got her so close is a mystery, she's got real guts, if she hadn't of blew the start as badly would surely of been a case of how far. Good days racing.

dogsaver

should have listened to frankie this morning on morning line

lenahan

Well done twice over backers. He was actually the closest trends fit apart from missing the killer stat above which i personally couldnt forgive him for. The drift on Sariska didnt mean anything more than we thought.

And has for Never On Sunday...I have no idea what was going on there. Lemaire dropped him right out the back with Sariska. Fallon cottoned on quite quickly though that he had to make some sort of move and get her into the race. He took her out wider as everyone was wanting the inside ground. Lemaire sat there out the back on the inside after coming across out the stalls never put the horse into the race and then gently eased him a bit from home. If there is nothing wrong with the horse that was an awfull tactital ride. Ill be interested on connections post race comments.

lenahan