If something seems too good to be true, it usually is …..?

andyanr

Although I do not post regularly, I regularly read the content of the board and value many of the contributions which seem well thought out and researched. I am interested in getting peoples views on whether the betfair market is becoming more of an indicator in races than form. Sorry if the post is a bit long winded, but I have been thinking of writing this for a few weeks and things seem a bit quiet at present.

The last 3 months or so has been a painful journey, having seen several of my ‘jumps systems’ (and the handicap snip which I have followed) make significant losses. Apart from a root and branch review of my betting in recent weeks (not just related to the system review), I have noted/seen many/most horses that the Board strongly expected to win or place (on recent form/ratings), including those posted under the ‘handicap snip’, loose badly. Whilst any one horse (or several of them) can fail to produce and long loosing runs have to be expected, I have been looking around for reasons why we are so regularly seeing our best ‘flat’ selections (often 8-12lbs ‘well in’, based on recent runs) drifting like barges before the off , drifting again in the first furlong after the off and guess what, often being unplaced. So yes, my observations are made from experiencing pain in the pocket, but I hope any discussion generated on the Board may help us all.

I keep coming back to factors that the form book can’t seem to tell us. I recall an article in the Racing Post a couple of months ago (Tom Segal I think) where he speculated that betfair market might be a better indicator of a horses chance than form! The example he used was Lovelace @ Ascot at the beginning of July. Never raced over 8f before (14 or so previous runs) – loads of late money in to 18/1 – the rest we know………

To cut to the chase, I am raising a general question (putting aside when someone spots massive long odds value). If we fancy a horse based on form, should we be prepared to loose some value (and failing to back some that win) by delaying our decision until we see where the late money is going, or at least until we are sure that our fancy is steady in the late market? Where the horse drifts to odds that seem too good to believe – should we think of the adage …… if something seems too good to be true, it usually is……?

My root and branch review is nearing completion and this has included placing a higher profile on results over the past 2 years, where I think Betfair has come into its own, even though I have often collected data over much longer.

One example is that I have been laying maiden hurdle favs at some tracks all summer with disastrous results. I have data over 9 years (1194 races!) – but a review of the last 18-24 months show that most of the profit was from the (earlier) days when the bookies set the odds, rather than Betfair leading.

Just as I turned my back on laying in novice hurdles, so I am now taking the same action on these races too. I am sure that we have some of the wisest form experts available on this board – how do we use their knowledge plus Betfair to best effect?

Best wishes

Andyanr

accajacca

i don't know anything about horses, but i did read a while back that if you had backed every horse whose price had come in at least X% on betfair and laid every horse whose price had drifted at least X% to level stakes in 2007 you would have made a significant loss, suggesting the market moves can be misleading.

you pays your money you takes your chance. non-triers will sometimes benefit you, sometimes cost you. i would say it is enourmously unlikely any system has hit the wall because of it. more likely if the system was profitable others cottoned on and pushed the value out of the prices, meaning it was no longer profitable.

i remember reading YY's thread backing a horse every day for a year and making a clear profit because he read form well and bet at value prices. it can be done if you're good i'm sure. i'm not good at horses at all, but if i was i wouldn't be put off a bet by the price action on betfair unless something looked very seriously amiss.

AJ

stof3345

I haven't done any big statistical reviews or anything but there have been at least 3 occasions this flat season where a horse i have strongly fancied on form has drifted alarmingly on betfair. I'm talking more than doubling in price. Rather than being put off the horse I doubled my stake but put in a lay at much shorter to cover the increase. These horses all won. Therefore i don't think you can rely on the market forces being right all the time.

Gorg_George

Trends, fractional market moves and tips from newspapers. I pay no attention to any, i look at the form, i study the form, and make my selection accordingly. Obviously if there's late money for a horse or a small yard has a 'coup' then one should sit-up and take note, but for 95% of the time i think having gumption in your own form-selections will see you through, you just need to know what your doing and have the bank and ability to be able to handle bad-spells, because everyone has them. It's the most rewarding way to punt, seeing the 33/1 shot, thinking 'hang on a minute...' and watching it hose up 6 lengths (Baddam at Royal Ascot first leg of his double, last season i think it was, possibly the season before). Maybe the Betfair markets are a good indicator, but if i fancy a horse who's 12/1 and it drifts to 30/1 on Betfair then i'm topping up the bet regardless, and for the time they lose to the time they win more than covers the losers I'd say.

Sky_Of_Darkness

I tend to disagree with those that have currently posted, but my comments relate specifically to favourites.

Without being able to prove whether I am correct or not, I would be pretty confident in stating that favourites that drift markedly before the off 'never' win. Never being not literal, but very rarely. Day in, day out, favourites that open at, for example, 2-1 (3.0 on Betfair) and drift to 4.5 or higher will not win. Very often you'll see massive drifts just before the off, sometimes 3 or 4 points. These do not win. Lay them all day long.

The higher a horses price is, the more the drift needed to indicate something. 6.0 on BF drifting to 9.0 can be ignored etc etc.

There are some caveats to watch out for. Leave the race alone from a laying perspective if there are any of the following

1. Heavily backed horses
2. Withdrawn horses
3. Horses that drift until a few mins before the off and then come back down (see the graph on each horse to tell this)

For these horses, where the drift is massive (and often pointed out by the RP), you can rip the form up and throw it away.

Hampton

Thanfully I've never accessed Betfair so I'm not swayed by movements on there! I'm still a bookies person (do I hear groans from the back!) & only use their shows to reason my betting. I've seen horse4 dift in the betting just before their race & still win, but more importantly I've seen horse drift hugely which have then gone & lost. I think these do tell their own story!

I read form them base my selections on my reading of that form. I like to think that from time to time I see things in horses form that others overlook & thereby find winners at decent odds.

I think spending hours putting information onto a computer seems a total waste of time, but that's just me!

Many will know that I have a blizt way of backing often putting up a number of selections & thankfully this year I have had some very good days. In fact I can only remember a handfull of days were I haven't won!

Reading in the RP a few weeks ago did draw me to the fact that at Ascot during the course of the year at least 4 wiiners of the big handicaps were late springers in the market. These include Mr Aviator, Big Timer & Laa Rayab who all shorten in price just before the off of their races. This makes me think that 'small' gambles are being left till late on certain races, may be just to get the best price, rather than being morning gambles.

I know SIS show horses that there have been money for in the morning, but I aslo notice very few of them win. Is this a 'false' gamble?

I have wondered if the fact that the going has changed so much this summer with spells of very dry weather producing firm one minute & then spells of wet weather giving us soft or heavy has thrown alot of the form upside down. I haven't reach a conculsion on that one yet!

YAIYAM

I tend to agree with a few of the points raised
Certainly Sky_Of_Darkness where favourites that drift badly tend not to win, there can be different resons for this though
Horses sweating up
big word for another runner
ground changing
even just whispers the horse has been under the weather recently.
As always though there have alway been drifters and some do win and if you are laying drifters and they do win you have effectively laid it at a price that it should not have been so it can knock out profit you have made from other drifters.

I do also agree with the points made where if you generally go by form and what you have seen and prices that look bigger than they should be you should win overall even if one now and again drifts and loses because people should be able to show profit from the main 3 things mentioned because as i have always said most if not all on this board could make a profit from racing.

I do also go for Stats and sytems though but tend to just go for the basic ones and not into real depth ones as the easy ones will show just as good profits as the indepth ones but take less time

three out

"Punting to make money is about the long game." That should be a motto of every punter whose goal is to show a profit IMHO. There will be days, weeks and even months where a loss is shown - in these cases it is about holding your nerve I suppose (sounds a bit too dramatic but...) - but speaking from experience it is easier said than done.

I like to think I am older and wiser now than I was when I started gambling on the horses 20+ years ago. Over that time I have thrown myself into systems, trend analysis, specialising in types of races etc etc. I have walked away from them too when it was going badly to try something else. Now I have a more relaxed approach which works for me. I only bet on a race when it looks right - for example I can eliminate a high percentage of runners as having marginal chance only, conditions are even (i.e. ground), stables aren't sending multiple runners in the race etc etc. In essence, I look to eliminate losers rather than find winners initially - if I can do enough of that I will then flip it round and see if there is anything worth betting on - and that is another process again. I am looking to minimise the risks of losing my stake first at all times - then afterwards maximising the potential returns from my stake. So in essence I do what others have discussed, rely on my race analysis capability to make a judgement.

Betfair and bookies markets can be a useful tool. When I am able I will wait to place my bet till quite late. If I can wait to see a horse in the paddock and go to post before betting I will (I will bet more in such circumstances because I minimise the risk and I bet more again when on course). This gives me a chance to check the market moves - if Betfair shows a steamer against mine I will consider reducing stake accordingly - for example.

In a long winded way I am saying that I believe there are lots of sources of info to be relied on if you want to beat the bookie. Your own judgement of how the race will pan out is the most important, and then after that let the outside factors of Betfair etc influence you accordingly.

I am no expert on the mechanics of exchanges, but I imagine you need to look at the volume of money involved before drawing any conclusions on the importantce of market moves? Then also assess whether this may be influenced by bookies laying off etc - some erratic moves I am convinced are this by on course bookies.

And a final caveat - all the bookies I know are rich and drive Bentleys

jennywales

We have a new forum - Betfair, Bookies and Betting Help - so I am going to move this there, leave this as a shadow (so everyone can see where it's gone) and lock it. If you want to post further on this topic, you'll find the thread on the new forum!

NoDough

I was at Kemton on Bank Holiday Monday, as I walked up to have a bet on the rails the guy in from of me said £2,000.00 to win X, cash in hand, and it was a big fat wodge

The bookmaker didn't take the bet and pointed to something on his board, I assume some kind of limit and the the guy walked and I didn't see if he got the money on

I got my on own bet on, I then viewed the price of this hrse and it was between 9/2 and 11/4 fav, the prce seemed all over the place, from memory it was something like a 7f - 15 runner handicap

I then placed a bet on the horse

As they raced the first furlong there was a coming together and the commentator said "the lumped on horse" came out worse

Not in the first 3

Hampton

I was reading the other day that the really big backers are not going racing everyday as it's easier for them to bet on line now.

How much this affects the markets I'm not sure but it's going to be a trend that will grow & we may see a very big shift in what odds horse go off at having taken large volumes of exchange money.

How much of it will be in the smaller punters favour I don't know!

accajacca

YAIYAM

I was at Kemton on Bank Holiday Monday, as I walked up to have a bet on the rails the guy in from of me said £2,000.00 to win X, cash in hand, and it was a big fat wodge

Depends what you are refering to by rails bookmakers as we have had this discussion on here before, rails bookmakers are the ones that stand between the Premier/owners enclosure and the main/tatterstalls enclosures and are generally bookies like William Hill, Ladbrokes, Sunderlands etc etc and i would be very surprised if they would not take a £2000 bet apart from maybe they would not have the cash to pay out as they are generally there for people with credit accounts to have bets.
If however you are callling the old satchel bookies "rail bookmakers" then yes only a few would take bets of £2000 but that is because they are small independant businesses and £5,500 is alot to lose(although would probably Lay some off anyway).
Even bookmakers online have MAX bets which i am pretty sure are determined by the payout rather than the actual size of the bets and some of these will be around the £3,000-£4,000 mark(payout) and i am talking about Skybet,Corals not the smaller online bookies

alansouthcoast

NoDough

Sky_Of_Darkness

alansouthcoast

I think thats why he said only back favs that have drifted two points. Even from evens to 3/1 it still allows for a few losses.

I think Betfair and its impact may have made prices closer to what they should be though.