Swagger
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Newmarket July MeetingDay 1:
2.00 Newmarket
I am very keen on the chances of CAPE VALE and at 14/1 looks worth a Win bet.
+ Drawn in 3, this could prove to be a huge positive. I would prefer a high or low draw, and not to be drawn in the middle. I understand the stalls are on the far side and a low draw is normally where you want to be when there is cut in the ground.
+ He would not mind any further ease in the ground, in fact it would increase his chances as it would decrease others.
+ Seems to have more up his sleeve and could be well handicapped, running off 87. He has run a lot better than his form suggests to date and the low mark could be of huge benefit tomorrow.
+ Brother to Moss Vale, who was a real 6 furlong specialist and showed his best form with cut in the ground - which we can fully expect tomorrow. Judging by his brother, he should act on the course;
NEWMARKET (JULY)
14 July 2006
Good To Firm
3:10 Darley July Cup (Group 1) (Class 1) (3yo+) 6f
[off 3:22] £204,408.00, £77,472.00, £38,772.00, £19,332.00, £9,684.00, £4,860.00
Draw TRAINER Age Wgt JOCKEY SP OR TS RPR
1 Les Arcs (USA) 15 T J Pitt 6 9-5 John Egan 10/1 110 109 122
2 hd Iffraaj 12 Saeed Bin Suroor 5 9-5 L Dettori 11/2 114 109 124+
3 ¾ Ashdown Express (IRE) 16 C F Wall 7 9-5 Alan Munro 20/1 111 107 119
4 shd Amadeus Wolf 13 K A Ryan 3 8-13 N Callan 10/1 120 105 118
5 ¾ Moss Vale (IRE) 9 D Nicholls 5 9-5 Adrian T Nicholls 14/1 114 104 117+
6 shd Quito (IRE) 17 D W Chapman 9 9-5 b Tony Culhane 25/1 111 104 116
7 shd Takeover Target (AUS) 1 J Janiak 7 9-5 Jay Ford 9/2F 103 116+
8 1¼ Pivotal Point 6 P J Makin 6 9-5 Seb Sanders 16/1 105 100 112+
9 1¼ Gift Horse 8 D Nicholls 6 9-5 Eddie Ahern 16/1 106 96 109
10 ½ Fayr Jag (IRE) 14 T D Easterby 7 9-5 David Allan 33/1 109 94 107
11 nk La Cucaracha 7 B W Hills 5 9-2 Michael Hills 9/1 112 90 103+
12 3½ Red Clubs (IRE) 2 B W Hills 3 8-13 Ryan Moore 10/1 117 82 95+
13 1½ Falkirk (NZ) 10 Lee Freedman 6 9-5 tb J Murtagh 13/2 78 91
14 shd Marcus Andronicus (USA) 4 A P O´Brien 3 8-13 M J Kinane 20/1 77 90
15 2½ Murfreesboro 11 J H M Gosden 3 8-13 Jimmy Fortune 66/1 98 69 82
15 ran TIME 1m 11.16s (slow by 0.36s) TOTAL SP 120%
- It's the type of race that you wouldn't want to bet a huge amount due to the sheer volume of runners as no one really knows how much each could improve at 3 yrs old and with the draw it is something of a lottery.
However, if he doesn't show significant improvement tomorrow, he will do in the future and he will be a horse to follow in my view. You may not be able to back him at 14/1 again for a long time should he do the business tomorrow.
Recommended Bet: 2.00 Newmarket - CAPE VALE to Win @ 14/1 with Betfred/Ladbrokes
Regards.
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