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ngreggors

Olympics / Sports Personality of the Year betting

A friend of mine works for UK Sport and is very closely involved with a lot of the Olympic sports.
He also likes a punt or two!!

Over the weekend he recommended putting an each way bet on Bradley Wiggins being the BBC Sports Personality of the Year.
His rationale behind this is that he is likely to be Britains biggest medal winner in Beijing. My mate reckons he should claim at least 3 gold medals.
Although cycling is still fairly unfashionable, our best Olympian should be there or thereabouts in the public's mind come December.

BW will probably not win the award, but top 3 is a distinct possibility & at 40/1 with some bookies is worth a go and have had a bit on myself.

Thoughts?
LongJ0n

If Hamilton wins the championship this year then surely hes gonna get it?
Papa 3

Another if, Tom Daley, sentiment and the cute factor sometimes wins the day.

Jimbob

LongJ0n wrote:
If Hamilton wins the championship this year then surely hes gonna get it?


He will probably get it even if he doesn't win the Championship as F1 is coming to the BBC next season  & they will want to milk the free publicity for all it's worth!

On the Bradley Wiggins front, you have got me wondering ngreggors. As a ccycling fan, I can't really see it as Nicole Cooke had a fantastic season last season including, amongst other things winning the Grande Boucle(the Womens Tour De France) for the second time in a row and she got nowhere near winning but then I suppose the Olympics is a bit higher profile. Who's offering 40/1? I may have some of that!
ngreggors

PP were as of yesterday but the market is now suspended (probably recalculating Hamilton's odds after yesterday!!)
ngreggors

Still at 40s on PP - 27s on Betfair so a classic case of buying money???

V Pendleton is as low as 10s on PP so clearly a cyclist may have a chance. She is quite a bit prettier than our Bradley though!!
geordie_racer

ngreggors wrote:
Still at 40s on PP - 27s on Betfair so a classic case of buying money???

V Pendleton is as low as 10s on PP so clearly a cyclist may have a chance. She is quite a bit prettier than our Bradley though!!


any of the female cyclists who wins a gold will be [assuming they are good looking] be all over the press and tv

VP has an extremely lucrative time ahead if she can win a gold, and sports personality isnt out of the question at all

cycling rowing and sailing could be our biggest medal winners
Hampton

If your going on 'sexy' woman then Heather Fell in the Modern Penathlon is one to watch out for, although it's a team event.

Kelly Sotherton might go well if she wins Gold & sh'e not bad loking either, might get the male vote!
Jimbob

I still can't see anybody but Hamilton winning for these reasons...

1) As I stated above, The BBC will love the free publicity of Formula 1 just before they get it back from ITV.

2) SPOTY is in December. Sports fans have pretty short memories sometimes and the last Grand Prix is in Brazil on the 2nd November so Formula 1 will be more in the memory of the general public than the Olympics.

3) Formula 1 has an army of fans that will vote for Hamilton simply because he is from their sport(plus all the other votes he will get as well). The likes of cycling, rowing, even Athletics, just doesn't have this enormous, obsessive, hardcore fanbase that Formula1 does have.

I'm just waiting for someone to do something really impressive in the Olympics to make them go odds on jolly and then lumping on Hamilton when his odds decrease!!
Hampton

Jimbob wrote:
I still can't see anybody but Hamilton winning for these reasons...

1) As I stated above, The BBC will love the free publicity of Formula 1 just before they get it back from ITV.

2) SPOTY is in December. Sports fans have pretty short memories sometimes and the last Grand Prix is in Brazil on the 2nd November so Formula 1 will be more in the memory of the general public than the Olympics.

3) Formula 1 has an army of fans that will vote for Hamilton simply because he is from their sport(plus all the other votes he will get as well). The likes of cycling, rowing, even Athletics, just doesn't have this enormous, obsessive, hardcore fanbase that Formula1 does have.

I'm just waiting for someone to do something really impressive in the Olympics to make them go odds on jolly and then lumping on Hamilton when his odds decrease!!


Cycling has a huge following, bigger than most think. If Team GB does really well then I can see one or more being put forward for SPotY!
lenahan

Jimbob wrote:

I'm just waiting for someone to do something really impressive in the Olympics to make them go odds on jolly and then lumping on Hamilton when his odds decrease!!


Rebecca Adlington in the Swimming Pool could be your woman Jimbob. She has a real shout of getting THREE GOLD medals. I thought she would win the 800M freestyle before the games and still do. I never in a million years thought she would get the gold the other night although i thought she would medal. Her relay with the other British girls in the 200M freestyle the more and more i look at it has the makings of another gold for her.

That would surely rank her as the best performing Olympian of the British team if that happened ?

Obviously other people think the same as her price in the Sports personality on betfair has moved in massively albeit it for small money.

Maybe she still presents value i dont know ?
RightJudgeIam

even though she must be 50/1 to win the marathon, Paula Radcliffe would become an instant certainty for SPOTY if she somehow won...unlikely given she's had a broken leg recently

Sotherton would also be a strong fancy if she wins the heptathlon which is not out of the question...

cant see a cyclist, rower or swimmer winning so it will probably be hamilton (especially if he wins F1 Drivers title)
geordie_racer

I'm thinking of a bet on Michael Vaughan.....


after all if Zara can win it ..........................
lenahan

RightJudgeIam wrote:
even though she must be 50/1 to win the marathon, Paula Radcliffe would become an instant certainty for SPOTY if she somehow won...unlikely given she's had a broken leg recently

Sotherton would also be a strong fancy if she wins the heptathlon which is not out of the question...

cant see a cyclist, rower or swimmer winning so it will probably be hamilton (especially if he wins F1 Drivers title)


Paula Radcliffe is a great shout judge. Like you i dont expect her to win but looking at her story you never know? And youre tight she would get the Spofty easily if she got gold in this.

I like Paula along with the rest of the british public so im gonna have a patriotic punt on her for the marathon and the Spofty

Well Rebbecca Addlington aint gettting three golds with the realy cockup but she could still get TWO which would be the best performance from one of our swimmers for generations.

Your right though about a Swimmer getting it. Moorhouse came third in 88 after winning gold and Sharon Davies came 2nd after her silver. That wouldnt look positive for Addlington getting the Spofty. Still if she got TWO golds she would be in with a shout. Prob not the best odds at the moment however.
jennywales

Lewis Smith - bronze in the individual gymnastics (pommel horse)? First medal EVER won by GB in gymnastics. Young (19), personable, talks a good interview, super prospect for 2012, and, dare I say it, from an ethnic minority.

The BBC coverage has been excellent so far, in my opinion, and more and more people must be watching both the terrestrial broadcast, the "extras" on Freeview and so on, and on the internet, where the service is excellent in terms of live coverage, although they could do with keeping the schedule and timings more up to date.

The audience for this Olympics is probably going to be the biggest ever, given the wide choice of media, so that I would reckon that one Olympic performance will have a decent chance of getting SPOTY - the question is, of course, which one! (Mens' quad rowers for the team award? -  or possibly the double sculls? - that interview with the poor chap practically collapsing on his partner would have garnered a few votes, I'd guess!).

After the performances put up by so very many members of Team GB, I would be exceptionally disappointed if Hamilton got the award, whether he won the world championship or not - and please would no-one ask me why, otherwise Jimbob and I would get into an argument!!
FallonFacta

For the Team is there any chance they do the whole Team GB??  It would cover everyone?  

I need to see the Gymnastics bronze yet - hope the Beeb still have it behind the red button....
Owl of Minerva

FallonFacta wrote:
For the Team is there any chance they do the whole Team GB??  It would cover everyone?  


Cycling team surely! They've been awesome
jennywales

They have indeed, Owl. I think it'll depend on what the Beeb defines as a Team (or do they now just give people a list to choose from, on the grounds that they think that very few people who watch the Beeb nowadays are capable of independent thought?)
Hampton

The BBC will use the SPotY to pat themseleves on the back for bringing the Games to us via the T.V. & P.C.

I would be very surprised if the award didn't go to a Gold winner from the Games.

It would be a choice of Adlington or Ainsley at the moment with may be Hoy & Wiggins in there too!
jennywales

Hampton wrote:
The BBC will use the SPotY to pat themseleves on the back for bringing the Games to us via the T.V. & P.C.


You mean the voting will be rigged?.....
Hampton

jennywales wrote:
Hampton wrote:
The BBC will use the SPotY to pat themseleves on the back for bringing the Games to us via the T.V. & P.C.


You mean the voting will be rigged?.....


Surely not!

Think about it....

There will be around 6 candidates & only one of them is likely to be from outside the contestants from the Games & that will be Lewis Hamilton.
Hampton

jennywales wrote:
Hampton wrote:
The BBC will use the SPotY to pat themseleves on the back for bringing the Games to us via the T.V. & P.C.


You mean the voting will be rigged?.....


Surely not!

Think about it....

There will be around 6 candidates & only one of them is likely to be from outside the contestants from the Games & that will be Lewis Hamilton.
jennywales

Ah, maybe I have not kept up, but "in my day" it was an open vote, that is, there was no pre-determined candidate list; you could vote for anyone you chose - and surely that was the point?

When did they start providing lists of who you can vote for? That is cheating, in my opinion (and probably why several really deserving candidates, including Tony McCoy, have never won it).
Hampton

jennywales wrote:
Ah, maybe I have not kept up, but "in my day" it was an open vote, that is, there was no pre-determined candidate list; you could vote for anyone you chose - and surely that was the point?

When did they start providing lists of who you can vote for? That is cheating, in my opinion (and probably why several really deserving candidates, including Tony McCoy, have never won it).


Good ole telephone voting that's how!

They give a list of names & a telephone number to ring for your fav!

You know you can trust it!    
ngreggors

Well, that's gold medal number 2 for the Wiggster.
One more & he may just be in with a shout come December.
Papa 3

Do you reckon the short list is to make sure that they are voting for someone who will be there, rather than vote for someone who deserves recognition but finds the show predictable.???
Lord Ashfordly

I hear that the BBC have appointed Ant & Dec to count the votes.  
jennywales

Are people no longer thought to be able to write a name on a postcard and send it to the correct address?

With a postal vote, they would know the winner in advance and could make sure to invite him/her and also the runners up etc. If necessary, they could tell the winner in advance, if he/she were a reluctant attendee.

The idea of a shortlist to choose from goes against my grain. Maybe I would like to vote for someone not on the shortlist! Who does the choosing of the short list? (Who guards the guardians?)
Owl of Minerva

So let's get this right;

If Lewis Hamilton wins then it is fixed to create publicity for the new FI BBC coverage

If an Olympian wins then it is fixed so that the BBC can highlight their Olympiucs coverage

It's all a conspiracy  

Load of tosh
jennywales

Why? I don't suppose for a moment that the voting will be rigged in the way you mean (although the BBC's record in the matter of telephone competitions and votes isn't great!)

My objection is that people are asked to vote for a pre-determined list, not for the person they think is the SPOTY. What if my choice for SPOTY isn't on the list? - I am then disenfranchised, because I would obviously refuse to vote for someone else I didn't think deserved to win....
Papa 3

Quote:
"Owl of Minerva"
So let's get this right;

If Lewis Hamilton wins then it is fixed to create publicity for the new FI BBC coverage Correct

If an Olympian wins then it is fixed so that the BBC can highlight their Olympiucs coverage Correct

It's all a conspiracy    Correct

Load of tosh Correct


And Jenny, there is no money to be made in Postal votes, can't make money after the count has been done, like you can with phone voting.
Owl of Minerva

Moan, moan, moan
jennywales

Well why not? Constant moaning is boring, I agree, but the occasional whinge never did anyone any harm (and possibly some good in the prevention of high blood pressure, etc).
Owl of Minerva

Not getting at you Jenny but it just sometimes seems that this forum is full of people who are convinced that the world is against them and that those with power/money/success spend all their time working out how to screw over the poor, exploited general public. You'd think we live in some big totalitarian, corrupt state* the way people on here go on.



* Eagerly awaits New Labour related jibes
Hampton

jennywales wrote:
Are people no longer thought to be able to write a name on a postcard and send it to the correct address?

With a postal vote, they would know the winner in advance and could make sure to invite him/her and also the runners up etc. If necessary, they could tell the winner in advance, if he/she were a reluctant attendee.

The idea of a shortlist to choose from goes against my grain. Maybe I would like to vote for someone not on the shortlist! Who does the choosing of the short list? (Who guards the guardians?)


Not sure who chooses the short list!

May be they should put a list of names up on line for people to choose & the 6 top ones then make up the final list & may be someone from out side the all too predictable list like McCoy would get a look in!  
ngreggors

The problem is where do they draw the line?

Rumour has it (& it may be an urban myth) the reason they introduced the short list was to stop "strange" results. Apparantly, the UKs champion angler would win SPOY every year if there was no shortlist.
Tagalie

ngreggors wrote:
The problem is where do they draw the line?

Rumour has it (& it may be an urban myth) the reason they introduced the short list was to stop "strange" results. Apparantly, the UKs champion angler would win SPOY every year if there was no shortlist.


I think this must be the case. When I was at uni there was an email campaign to get Justin Fashanu voted in, orchestrated by Gay Times I think.

It must be very difficult to co-ordinate a poll with such a huge number of candidates, where everyone could theoretically vote for their mate in a pub Five A Side team- how many people would it take to try and count up all of those? I think most TV polls are done from the basis of a pre-selected long or shortlist these days.
jennywales

Hampton wrote:
jennywales wrote:
Are people no longer thought to be able to write a name on a postcard and send it to the correct address?

With a postal vote, they would know the winner in advance and could make sure to invite him/her and also the runners up etc. If necessary, they could tell the winner in advance, if he/she were a reluctant attendee.

The idea of a shortlist to choose from goes against my grain. Maybe I would like to vote for someone not on the shortlist! Who does the choosing of the short list? (Who guards the guardians?)


Not sure who chooses the short list!

May be they should put a list of names up on line for people to choose & the 6 top ones then make up the final list & may be someone from out side the all too predictable list like McCoy would get a look in!  


Good idea! I don't know about the UK's top angler - are anglers that interested in SPOTY? But the longer list could prevent that from happening, I guess, and give the public more choice, if not necessarily completely free choice.
suejoe

I just wish they would call it Sports Person of the Year, Sports Personality sounds wrong to me,  

I should imagine Rebecca Adlington will win it this year, deservedly so too,

Sue  
Jimbob

Yesterday was a great day in this market! Hamilton didn't win the Grand Prix and The Olympic closing ceremony meant you could get 100/30 on Hamilton to win!!

FILL YOUR BOOTS LADIES AND GENTLEMEN!!!!!!!  
Hampton

Hoy or Adlington will win it!  

Hoy will have most of Scotland voting for him & a very large number of cycling followers too!

Hamilton might have to put up with winning the F1 title in the same year that Team GB got it right in the Olympics!  
ngreggors

Re: Olympics / Sports Personality of the Year betting

ngreggors wrote:
A friend of mine works for UK Sport and is very closely involved with a lot of the Olympic sports.
He also likes a punt or two!!

Over the weekend he recommended putting an each way bet on Bradley Wiggins being the BBC Sports Personality of the Year.
His rationale behind this is that he is likely to be Britains biggest medal winner in Beijing. My mate reckons he should claim at least 3 gold medals.
Although cycling is still fairly unfashionable, our best Olympian should be there or thereabouts in the public's mind come December.

BW will probably not win the award, but top 3 is a distinct possibility & at 40/1 with some bookies is worth a go and have had a bit on myself.

Thoughts?


Ok, sorry guys but it looks like I flagged the wrong cyclist!! My mate at UK Sport has been sufficiently repremanded!!
Hoy is now a best priced 9/4 for SPOTY.
Close but no cigar.
Jimbob

I've moved this from the Olympics sub forum as the Olympics is over but we still have a long way to go(and plenty of twists & turns) until December!

What price Andy Murray if he wins tonight?
Machiavellian

I think they have a nomination vote on the net and maybe by post too and the 6? sports personalities with the most nominations go through to the final telephone poll.
archie mackenzie

do bookmakers take punts on the young sports person????
surely elanor simmonds must go close to winning the trophy
shes the young lassie who won two golds in the swimming at the paralympics
who can forget her huge smile when she recieved her medals and then dashing off to comfort her team mate who was in tears
super effort elanor,you get the mackenzie support
cheers archie.
archie mackenzie

found that william hill offer prices on this trophy but some girl by the name of laura robson    never heard of her is 1-7 to win,so i guess she is home and hosed
cheers archibald.
shamardal84

archie mackenzie wrote:
found that william hill offer prices on this trophy but some girl by the name of laura robson    never heard of her is 1-7 to win,so i guess she is home and hosed
cheers archibald.


She is the young tennis girl archie, won the junior girls title at wimbledon then won a senior title in Sunderland not long ago. I'd be suprised if she was beaten
ngreggors

Full list of nominees here

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/t...rsonality_of_the_year/7759195.stm

Remember everyone, vote Wiggins and make me rich!!
archie mackenzie

Hampton wrote:
Hoy or Adlington will win it!  

Hoy will have most of Scotland voting for him & a very large number of cycling followers too!

Hamilton might have to put up with winning the F1 title in the same year that Team GB got it right in the Olympics!  
you could well be right hampton
hamilton drifting like a barge in the betting,rebecca adlington now the new favorite
chris hoy will it
get on     cheers archie.
archie mackenzie

shamardal84 wrote:
archie mackenzie wrote:
found that william hill offer prices on this trophy but some girl by the name of laura robson    never heard of her is 1-7 to win,so i guess she is home and hosed
cheers archibald.


She is the young tennis girl archie, won the junior girls title at wimbledon then won a senior title in Sunderland not long ago. I'd be suprised if she was beaten
cheers for the reply sham
thats why i hadnt heard of laura watching tennis sends me to sleep
intresting betting on this trophy over the last two weeks
laura now 4-11 but elanor@ 2-1 with ladcrooks but was 8-1 when i first posted up
is this trophy voted for by the public ???   or someone inside the bbc picks the winner
is someone planning a coup.cheers archie.
FallonFacta

Christmas starts now  
FallonFacta

archie mackenzie wrote:
do bookmakers take punts on the young sports person????
surely elanor simmonds must go close to winning the trophy
shes the young lassie who won two golds in the swimming at the paralympics
who can forget her huge smile when she recieved her medals and then dashing off to comfort her team mate who was in tears
super effort elanor,you get the mackenzie support
cheers archie.


Spot on Archie  
theGoingStick

Anyone having a bet on this ?
theGoingStick

Finally they've got on to the horse racing.
theGoingStick

theGoingStick wrote:
Finally they've got on to the horse racing.


Was that it    The BBC are really cutting back on the horse racing  
FallonFacta

theGoingStick wrote:
theGoingStick wrote:
Finally they've got on to the horse racing.


Was that it    The BBC are really cutting back on the horse racing  

 I was going to time it - but didn't get chance  

Great show with the cyclists though    I'd like to see Chris Hoy to win!  

I've bet Clazaghe without Hoy/Hamilton/Adlington    But not sure they even announce 4th place
FallonFacta

 Sir Bobby  
Machiavellian

FallonFacta wrote:
 Sir Bobby  


Machiavellian

"Thankyou to Liverpool for putting this on for me"

FallonFacta

Who's going to get Overseas??  Bolt or Phelps... anyone else?

And how long will they over run tonight!
Rowan

If Hoy doesn't shut up, about 5 mins?

Usain Bolt was hilarious - I don't think he had the slightest clue what he'd won.
FallonFacta

Good speech I thought!  Cycling did incredibly well.  Especially seem as some of the races are incomprehenisble!

Bolt was great    Proper personality!  Possibly insane?
shamardal84

I must admit I thought it was a great show tonight and I think anyone of the top 3 would of been fully deserved winners. But in general a very good show and one of the best I have seen in a long time, probably down to the fact what a great year we've had.
SkankyMinga

£2 has been matched for Chris Hoy at 260  

I presume that was matched very early on this year.
theGoingStick

Rowan wrote:
so well done if you backed him for BBC SPOTY!


Owl of Minerva wrote:
The right choice
archie mackenzie

i didnt see the show but did they say how the young sports persons trophy was decided????
cheers archie.
ngreggors

Oh well, picked the wrong cyclist back in August!!
In hindsight, should have backed both Wiggins & Hoy @ 40/1, but I still maintain it was a good bet.
It was a good job Wiggins had no chance of winning (despite being nominated) as his "non-speech" would have blown any chance he had right out of the window!!
Papa 3

FallonFacta wrote:
Good speech I thought!  Cycling did incredibly well.  Especially seem as some of the races are incomprehenisble!

Bolt was great    Proper personality!  Possibly insane?


Is that Usain's brother?  
Solerina

FallonFacta wrote:
Who's going to get Overseas??  Bolt or Phelps... anyone else?

And how long will they over run tonight!


Was Harrington not in the running for it?
theGoingStick

Solerina wrote:
FallonFacta wrote:
Who's going to get Overseas??  Bolt or Phelps... anyone else?

And how long will they over run tonight!


Was Harrington not in the running for it?


He was, maybe he would of won it if it wasn't an Olympics year.
Jimbob

Congratulations to Chris Hoy. A deserved winner although quite frankly as long as it isn't Hamilton or Ohurogue I'm happy
Death n Taxes

What a reception for Sir Bobby. Absolute Legend
Owl of Minerva

theGoingStick wrote:
Solerina wrote:
FallonFacta wrote:
Who's going to get Overseas??  Bolt or Phelps... anyone else?

And how long will they over run tonight!


Was Harrington not in the running for it?


He was, maybe he would of won it if it wasn't an Olympics year.


You need to be British to win it don't you?
theGoingStick

Owl of Minerva wrote:
theGoingStick wrote:
Solerina wrote:
FallonFacta wrote:
Who's going to get Overseas??  Bolt or Phelps... anyone else?

And how long will they over run tonight!


Was Harrington not in the running for it?


He was, maybe he would of won it if it wasn't an Olympics year.


You need to be British to win it don't you?


We were talking about the overseas gong that Bolt won, a deserved winner IMO.
Owl of Minerva

theGoingStick wrote:
Owl of Minerva wrote:
theGoingStick wrote:
Solerina wrote:
FallonFacta wrote:
Who's going to get Overseas??  Bolt or Phelps... anyone else?

And how long will they over run tonight!


Was Harrington not in the running for it?


He was, maybe he would of won it if it wasn't an Olympics year.


You need to be British to win it don't you?


We were talking about the overseas gong that Bolt won, a deserved winner IMO.


Oh OK. Maybe the Irish are at a disadvantage in tis category because many people don't really regard them as 'properly' overseas? (even though it is in reality as overseas as Jamaica is) Bit too close to home, English speaking, similar cultures etc. if you see my point. Although if loads of Irish have won it in the past then that would kinda blow that theory out of the water  
theGoingStick

Owl of Minerva wrote:
Oh OK. Maybe the Irish are at a disadvantage in tis category because many people don't really regard them as 'properly' overseas? (even though it is in reality as overseas as Jamaica is) Bit too close to home, English speaking, similar cultures etc. if you see my point. Although if loads of Irish have won it in the past then that would kinda blow that theory out of the water  


It looks as though no one from Ireland has ever won the SPOTY for overseas, it's a tough category to win though  
Jimbob

Owl of Minerva wrote:
theGoingStick wrote:
Solerina wrote:
FallonFacta wrote:
Who's going to get Overseas??  Bolt or Phelps... anyone else?

And how long will they over run tonight!


Was Harrington not in the running for it?


He was, maybe he would of won it if it wasn't an Olympics year.


You need to be British to win it don't you?



I'm not actually sure that you so as I'm almost certain Frankie was nominated the year he went through the card at Royal Ascot. I think this discussion has come up before & you have to have made a significant contribution to British Sport(which is a bit vague)

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