Play the Ace

Swagger · Play the Ace

I will be attending the Eclipse meeting tomorrow at Sandown, and depsite the disappointing renewal for the main event itself, it's always a great occasion and Sandown is my favourite course.

I will be having two main bets tomorrow. I'll be leaving the Eclipse as a betting heat as it is extremely likely the going will read 'Good to Firm', resulting in Literato being a non-runner. I'm not drawn to any of the three 3 yr old races and the sprint should fall to Hoh Mike but i'm not prepared to chance my arm at 2/1.

TOTESWINGER STAKES (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (CLASS 2)
2.40 Sandown

This is my favourite race on the card tomorrow, and it looks a decent renewal. The horse who stands out to me is an old friend of mine, namely. ACE OF HEARTS.
I will simplify his profile to the following;
+ He seems to save his best form for this race at Sandown. He has previously run in the corresponding race 3 times, winning once and coming 2nd on another occasion when he was beaten by a very well handicapped and progressive horse in Hinterland. The Ace still put up a super performance off an 8 lb higher mark than he is running off tomorrow;
SANDOWN
08 July 2006
Good To Firm
2:35 totescoop6 Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+) (1m14y) 1m
[off 2:39] £62,320.00, £18,660.00, £9,330.00, £4,670.00, £2,330.00, £1,170.00
Draw TRAINER Age Wgt JOCKEY SP OR TS RPR
1 Hinterland (IRE) 11 M A Jarvis 4 9-3 Philip Robinson 7/2F 99 76 109
2 1¼ Ace Of Hearts 4 C F Wall 7 9-5 George Baker 12/1 101 75 108
3 ½ Momtic (IRE) 13 W Jarvis 5 9-10 Alan Munro 14/1 106 79 112
4 ¾ Capable Guest (IRE) 15 M R Channon 4 8-11 Jamie Spencer 10/1 93 64 97
5 ½ Granston (IRE) 7 J D Bethell 5 8-5 Kerrin McEvoy 12/1 87 57 90
6 shd Stagelight (IRE) 10 J Noseda 4 9-8 Shane Kelly 25/1 104 74 107
7 1¼ Kings Quay 9 J J Quinn 4 9-0 Darryll Holland 16/1 96 63 98+
8 hd Humble Opinion 8 B J Meehan 4 8-5 Eddie Ahern 13/2 87 53 87
9 nk Flipando (IRE) 3 T D Barron 5 8-9 Paul Fessey 10/1 91 57 90
10 1¼ Seulement (USA) 1 L M Cumani 4 9-1 C Soumillon 14/1 97 60 93
11 nk Pentecost 14 A M Balding 7 9-7 Richard Hughes 12/1 103 65 98
12 hd My Paris 16 K A Ryan 5 9-0 Andrew Mullen(5) 16/1 101 62 96
13 2½ Desert Realm (IRE) 2 M Johnston 3 8-7 John Egan 33/1 98 51 87
14 3 Chrysander (GB) 5 M R Channon 4 9-4 Ted Durcan 33/1 100 48 82
15 ¾ Bahar Shumaal (IRE) 6 C E Brittain 4 9-0 R Hills 50/1 96 42 76
16 hd Langford 17 M H Tompkins 6 8-11 Saleem Golam(3) 16/1 96 42 76+
17 7 Beauchamp Pilot (GB) 12 G A Butler 8 9-6 M J Kinane 40/1 102 30 66
17 ran TIME 1m 41.92s (slow by 0.92s) TOTAL SP 121%
+ I still believe the horse is well handicapped off a mark of 93 and capable of winning. He has previously won off a mark of 96 and has run some monster races off a mark of 101 when coming a close second on both occasions (above and below);
REDCAR
29 May 2006
Good
3:50 totesport Zetland Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+,0-105) 1m2f
[off 3:50] £32,385.00, £9,635.00, £4,815.00, £2,405.00
Draw TRAINER Age Wgt JOCKEY SP OR TS RPR
1 Chantaco (USA) 16 A M Balding 4 9-0 Martin Dwyer 4/1F 91 98 98
2 ½ Ace Of Hearts 6 C F Wall 7 9-10 George Baker 16/1 101 107 107
3 hd Active Asset (IRE) 12 M R Channon 4 8-1 Chris Catlin 25/1 78 84 84+
4 ½ El Coto 4 K A Ryan 6 9-1 N Callan 20/1 92 97 97
5 ½ Dancing Lyra 9 R A Fahey 5 8-5 Paul Hanagan 6/1 82 86 88+
6 shd Bravo Maestro (USA) 5 N P Littmoden 5 8-8 James Doyle(5) 33/1 90 94 94
7 hd Ofaraby (GB) 11 M A Jarvis 6 9-8 K Darley 8/1 99 102 103
8 ½ Goodbye Mr Bond 2 E J Alston 6 8-9 6 Francis Norton 6/1 86 88 93+
9 1¼ Artistic Style 14 B Ellison 6 9-1 Tom Eaves 25/1 92 92 92
10 ½ Group Captain 17 R Charlton 4 8-12 Darryll Holland 8/1 89 88 88
11 1¼ Best Prospect (IRE) 1 M Dods 4 8-5 Dale Gibson 12/1 82 79 79+
12 ¾ Go Tech 15 T D Easterby 6 8-9 Richard Mullen 28/1 86 81 81
13 ¾ Sharp Reply (USA) 13 R M Whitaker 4 8-3 Jamie Mackay 25/1 80 74 74
14 ½ Crow Wood 10 J J Quinn 7 9-2 D Nolan(3) 20/1 96 89 89
15 ¾ Magic Sting 7 M L W Bell 5 8-1 Hayley Turner 25/1 78 69 70
16 3½ Bustan (IRE) 3 G C Bravery 7 9-4 Robert Winston 33/1 95 79 87+
17 20 Seyaadi 8 Robert Gray 4 8-0 v Andrew Mullen(5) 66/1 82 27 29
17 ran TIME 2m 5.19s (slow by 1.19s) TOTAL SP 120%
RP - Ace Of Hearts ran a blinder under top-weight, travelling strongly, and being produced to lead inside the last, only to be mugged close home.
+ Having watched him last time out, i still believe he retains most if not all of his previous ability. He travelled like a dream and beat off the opponents he could see only for the seemingly progressive Fondled to pick his pocket up the rail giving the Ace little chance to fight back. The ground would have been soft enough for the Ace which makes the performance all the more impressive and in my view, shows that he is no back number at the age of 9 yrs old.
+ He is a much better horse on good to firm going and with the rain likely to stay away tomorrow and the clerk of the course watering parts of the course, 'good to firm' going looks on the cards.
+ Jack Mitchell gets on nicely with the horse and will again take 5 lbs off his back tomorrow. He rode a tremendous race when making all at Glorious Goodwood last season and shows that the Ace can win when making the running and is adaptable as to how to win races which is a huge positive in a handicap like this.
+ Chris Wall's horses seem to have hit a purple patch again with 3 winners and 3 seconds from his last 13 runners.
+ When Ace of Heart's finished 1st and second in the corresponding race he was drawn in stall 4. He is strangely drawn in stall 4 again tomorrow.
+ Over the last 10 years the winner ran an average of 12 lbs above their official rating. There are obviously some progressive types where this looks possible but it's also not out of the question for the Ace to run to a mark of 105 with his optimum conditions tomorrow.
+ He seems to cope immensely well with the hustle and bustle of a big handicap and obviously has the experience to boot. Some of the younger horses will be lacking this and their performance could suffer as a result.
+ Based on the RPR's, his first two performances this season have been better than his first two performances in any other season except in 2005. In addition, his form has previously improved during the season, so in theory he should put up his best performance so far this season tomorrow, which would see him go close.

- People will raise the point that no horse aged over 6 has won the race over the last 10 years. True, but then only 19 horses have tried and the majority of those were 25/1+ no hopers who were making up the numbers. I think two of the shortest priced horses from the 19 were Ace of Hearts himself at 7 years old and at odds of 12/1 when he finished second behind Hinterland and Unshakable at 8 years old at odds of 14/1 who finished 3rd at 14/1 here last season. I agree the race has traditionally gone to a progressive younger horse who was running off their highest mark in recent years, but I think a lot of the 4 yr olds do not have conditions in their favour tomorrow. E.g. I couldn't back anything from the Mark Johnston stable due to the general state of their form (Lovelace, Dubai's Touch), Lang Shining would surely want cut in the ground, Celtic Sultan looks badly handicapped and his style of racing probably won't suit the race. I think Jack Junior could run a big race, but I do not like his draw (17 of 17) at all - no winner drawn higher than 12 has landed this race over the last 10 years, i think this is a valid stat and Gold Sovereign is respected but has to overcome inexperience and the stable have been a bit in and out of late with their runners.
- At the age of 9 years old it is quite possible that my subjective view that Ace of Hearts retains much if not all of his pevious abililty may not be the case and he could put in a performance which would support the possibility of regression in his form.

Selected Bet:
ACE OF HEARTS - EW (place to break even) @ 20/1 with Coral or 18/1 with Bet365 (Best price guaranteed)

THE ESHER STAKES
4.30

I'll keep this short and sweet.
My selection is RAINCOAT with a saver on Tungston Strike.
+ I don't think there is a 'star' in this field hence the RP betting forecast of 4/1 the field.
+ I have dismissed Raincoat's run in the St Leger from last season as I don't think he really travelled and/or ran his true race and is therefore inconclusive to me if he would stay a marathon trip or not.
+ His run at Chester in the Ormonde Stakes (Group 3) was a huge run and he finally looked to be fulfilling his potential until he got squeezed for room by the rail and was eased as a result. He would have of definitely finished second and may have given Macarthur (3rd in Coronation Cup and winner of the Hardwicke) something to think about he he been granted a clear passage when he was staying on strongly at the business end of the race. This is arguably the best piece of form in the race, especially when looking at the subsequent collateral form of Macarthur.
+- I've always thought his style of racing has suggested he will stay and improve for the step up in trip, although this is purely subjective.
+- He is trained by John Gosden, who I am not a fan of in the slightest, is no fool and wouldn't try him over the trip unless he was more than confident of him staying the distance as there are plenty of other races for him to have run in.
+ In the past he has really appreciated the better/faster ground and I can see him travelling sweetly only to show a decent turn of foot and outclass his rivals in the last furlong (subjective again!)

Of the others, I thought Samuel would be a shorter price than he is so I have the view that the bookies want to take him on for some reason, Distinction could maybe do with further and I'm not quite sure if he will be able to repeat his impressive run last time out again, Ajaan looks a handicapper to me, Eastern Anthem is classy but inexperienced and more unproven over the trip than Raincoat but has an obvious chance should he stay, Surely they won't let Finalmente get away with a stop/start pace up front again, Balkan Knight will run his race and go close but I think he will be beaten by a more progressive younger type, I don't think Supersonic Dave will stay the trip and Self Defence looks up against it with younger more progressive stayers in the race.
However, Tungston Strike is one of those horses who could blow his rivals apart on a going day or finish tailed off if he wants to sulk. As a result he must be backed as a saver at 10/1+.

Recommended Bet;
RAINCOAT - Win @ likely odds of around 8/1 after the withdrawals! (I'll be backing him on course).

Regards to all and I hope you back the Eclipse winner as I won't be!