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newyorktony

racing post trophy

this looks a very good race indeed!!  i will be backing coordinated cut the stable hold him in the highest regard and he gave mr fallon a good feel last time out, hopefully we get some rain as abit of give underfoot wouldnt go amiss

Racing Post Trophy Betting
Blue Square 9-4 St Nicholas Abbey, 4  Coordinated Cut,  9-2  Al Zir, Elusive Pimpernel, 10  Joshua Tree,  Shakespearan, 12  Jan Vermeer,  Morana, 14 Dancing David, 16 Midas Touch, Musaafer, Al Ghazal, Marfach, 25  Elusive Award, Hanson'd, Sharaayeen, 33 Big Audio, 40 Air Chief Marshal, 50 Utrillo, Free Judgement, 66  Dubawi Phantom, 100   Philander
theGoingStick

Re: racing post trophy

newyorktony wrote:
i will be backing coordinated cut the stable hold him in the highest regard and he gave mr fallon a good feel last time out, hopefully we get some rain as abit of give underfoot wouldnt go amiss


I wasn't impressed with Co-ordinated Cut when I watched his maiden, this looks a hot race.
Gorg_George

Shakespearen should go well.
geordie_racer

Gorg_George wrote:
Shakespearen should go well.


agreed

10/1 + looks a stonking e/w bet to me
Owl of Minerva

Can't be having Coordinated Cut at all. Form of his maiden win is not working out and has absolutely stacks to findon that run.

The favourite looks smart and Elusive Pimpernel will love a straight 1m and easier ground
newyorktony

this looks as good a racing post as we have seen for awhile but i just think coordinated cut could be abit special, this game is about opinion on form he has to inprove alot but i thought he would come on alot for his debut run
Gorg_George

Don't you think 4/1's a bit short for his profile in a race of this nature though, Tony? It's gotta pay to go e/w on horses other than the front 2 in the market.
newyorktony

i have took the 6-1 e/w with ladbrokes i really feel this horse could be special!! i have been wrong before but hopefully my good run carries on....
Gorg_George

6/1 is a decent price, I've been paying attention to your thread and far be it from me to doubt your selections NYT, good luck with the bet, I'll still be hammering Shake though  
LongJ0n

Although this looks a seriously hot race, its between the top 4 imo.
YAIYAM

Musaafer at 25/1 looks as good a value bet as anything in this race.
He only has maiden form but he looked a cut above average when winning last time by a very easy wide margin and Jarvis is not known for sending out horses in group races that do not have genuine chances.
theGoingStick

YAIYAM wrote:
Musaafer at 25/1 looks as good a value bet as anything in this race.
He only has maiden form but he looked a cut above average when winning last time by a very easy wide margin and Jarvis is not known for sending out horses in group races that do not have genuine chances.


I liked the look of him as well, looks a decent tbp bet.

I think the winner will come from that sort of draw as Shakespearean will give them all a good lead, I think that's why O'Brien didn't put a pace maker in the race.
alansouthcoast

Al Zir has been eased in both his races and could be anything. The step up in distance should suit as well.
YAIYAM

theGoingStick wrote:
YAIYAM wrote:
Musaafer at 25/1 looks as good a value bet as anything in this race.
He only has maiden form but he looked a cut above average when winning last time by a very easy wide margin and Jarvis is not known for sending out horses in group races that do not have genuine chances.


I liked the look of him as well, looks a decent tbp bet.

I think the winner will come from that sort of draw as Shakespearean will give them all a good lead, I think that's why O'Brien didn't put a pace maker in the race.


Surely the entries are made before the draw takes place so unless O'Brien can add crystal ball reading onto his CV I don't see how that can be.
theGoingStick

YAIYAM wrote:
theGoingStick wrote:
YAIYAM wrote:
Musaafer at 25/1 looks as good a value bet as anything in this race.
He only has maiden form but he looked a cut above average when winning last time by a very easy wide margin and Jarvis is not known for sending out horses in group races that do not have genuine chances.


I liked the look of him as well, looks a decent tbp bet.

I think the winner will come from that sort of draw as Shakespearean will give them all a good lead, I think that's why O'Brien didn't put a pace maker in the race.


Surely the entries are made before the draw takes place so unless O'Brien can add crystal ball reading onto his CV I don't see how that can be.


I don't think he quite needs a crystal ball, there was plenty of front runners entered in the race  
theGoingStick

alansouthcoast wrote:
Al Zir has been eased in both his races and could be anything. The step up in distance should suit as well.


There's a few things I don't like about Al Zir, his stable going on about how he'll be a better 3yo, his draw and the quality of horse he has already beat.

St Nicholas Abbey is definitely priced up on the Coolmore factor, but their runners seem to keep on geting turned over in this race.
YAIYAM

Oh i see i thought were referring to Just the draw and shakespearen
lochsong

theGoingStick wrote:
YAIYAM wrote:
theGoingStick wrote:
YAIYAM wrote:
Musaafer at 25/1 looks as good a value bet as anything in this race.
He only has maiden form but he looked a cut above average when winning last time by a very easy wide margin and Jarvis is not known for sending out horses in group races that do not have genuine chances.


I liked the look of him as well, looks a decent tbp bet.

I think the winner will come from that sort of draw as Shakespearean will give them all a good lead, I think that's why O'Brien didn't put a pace maker in the race.


Surely the entries are made before the draw takes place so unless O'Brien can add crystal ball reading onto his CV I don't see how that can be.


I don't think he quite needs a crystal ball,  


For all intents and purposes it would seem that he does have one though.  
shamardal84

Oops, just posted on another thread about the pacemaker situation. I think that O'Brien thinks this horse is good enough to win no matter what, could be a walk in the park for St Nicholas Abbey
lenahan

AL GHAZAL 40/1

I was backing him for this regardless as ive been following him since his maiden. Im staggered at the price though. I wasnt going to bother going through this race properly as i was just going with a large each way on this fellow. However i have done. Ill put some details up here if i get round to it but ill tell you now Al Ghazal comes out as an almost perfect trends fit only rivaled in this regard by St Nicholas Abbey and Coordinated Cut. I was obviously happy to see that. Dont think Al Zir will place. He was bought from the American Sales remember and so would have had a huge fitness and precocity advantage earlier in the season when he won his first two starts.

Looking out for Classic Colori in the 205pm at Newbury to see if gives an Al Ghazal form boost.
lochsong

You can get £70 on @ 50's atm. I've had some.
lenahan

lochsong wrote:
You can get £70 on @ 50's atm. I've had some.


The wheelbarrow is nearly at breaking point lochsong...need an upgrade....
Gorg_George

Am now 3 pronged in my attack on the RP Trophy. Shakespearean is my main bet with a decent bet on Coordinated Cut and then Al Ghazal.
newyorktony

wow  one horse race that was awesome
BurntFingers

Annoyed I never backed him after his maiden for the Derby. 33's were available then.

Took 10's the other day, though ....
gromero

What a lovely horse, very stylish, look forward to seeing him win the Derby next year. Not had or got a penny on him, but he'll win.
lenahan

Gosh.

Im a lucky boy. Came out relatively unscathed after most in running lays were matched.

anyone got any opinions on al ghazals run ? i wasnt really able to watch it objectively
theGoingStick

BurntFingers wrote:
Annoyed I never backed him after his maiden for the Derby. 33's were available then.

Took 10's the other day, though ....


Same here BurntFingers but I thought 10/1 was skinny from what I had seen of him so left that alone, so it's a double kick for me.
david-uk

gromero wrote:
What a lovely horse, very stylish, look forward to seeing him win the Derby next year. Not had or got a penny on him, but he'll win.


Judging by what Aiden just said hes gonna go for the guineas as he has so much speed (as Owl would say!)
Gorg_George

lenahan wrote:
Gosh.

Im a lucky boy. Came out relatively unscathed after most in running lays were matched.

anyone got any opinions on al ghazals run ? i wasnt really able to watch it objectively


I don't think he stayed, he could still get the trip next year and have a Guineas shout, but I wouldn't back him unless I saw him have a spin in the spring first. The winner looks different gravy.
lenahan

Gorg_George wrote:
lenahan wrote:
Gosh.

Im a lucky boy. Came out relatively unscathed after most in running lays were matched.

anyone got any opinions on al ghazals run ? i wasnt really able to watch it objectively


I don't think he stayed, he could still get the trip next year and have a Guineas shout, but I wouldn't back him unless I saw him have a spin in the spring first. The winner looks different gravy.


Im gonna have to watch the reply on C4+1 in 20 mins...Did he get into some trouble on either side and get bustled out just as they were all being shaken up ? I dont think i see him get a smack at all and then it looked like he was just eased up    Might not be that bad a run at all. Im just happy he traded low and i got most my stakes back.


SNA was in a league of his own today though.
BurntFingers

It was a strange ride, lenahan. He was bang there with a chance (until next years Derby winner took off anyway), the jock shook him up and when there wasn't an excelleration the jock gave up on him. The thing was, when he got shook up, he wasn't going backwards and was probably in the first two. Jock never hit him and it looks (to me), that as soon as he saw the winner go clear, he appeared to make sure he did not finish ahead of Al Zir. Team orders maybe, who knows. Could possibly have made the frame if ridden more vigoroulsy ....
shamardal84

BurntFingers wrote:
It was a strange ride, lenahan. He was bang there with a chance (until next years Derby winner took off anyway), the jock shook him up and when there wasn't an excelleration the jock gave up on him. The thing was, when he got shook up, he wasn't going backwards and was probably in the first two. Jock never hit him and it looks (to me), that as soon as he saw the winner go clear, he appeared to make sure he did not finish ahead of Al Zir. Team orders maybe, who knows. Could possibly have made the frame if ridden more vigoroulsy ....


Was it me or did he also look a very big two year old? Im not sure when he was born but maybe he might not improve a lot from 2 to 3 as he already looked very big compared to the rest
BurntFingers

Quote:
BurntFingers wrote:
It was a strange ride, lenahan. He was bang there with a chance (until next years Derby winner took off anyway), the jock shook him up and when there wasn't an excelleration the jock gave up on him. The thing was, when he got shook up, he wasn't going backwards and was probably in the first two. Jock never hit him and it looks (to me), that as soon as he saw the winner go clear, he appeared to make sure he did not finish ahead of Al Zir. Team orders maybe, who knows. Could possibly have made the frame if ridden more vigoroulsy ....


Was it me or did he also look a very big two year old? Im not sure when he was born but maybe he might not improve a lot from 2 to 3 as he already looked very big compared to the rest


Let's have a go at this quote lark again - never seem to get it right !

See what you mean, Sham, but it would be hard to say. Some big 2yr olds improve at 3 once they grow into their frame and strengthen up. Never backed him today and only took note of his ride after he recieved a few mentions on here. Todays performance certainly would not put me off backing him in Gp2/3 company - as long as he's not the second string, though  
lenahan

He is certainly a very big horse for a 2 year old. Hes a very strong fellow as well. Id expect him to fill out quite abit over the winter and personally although im perhaps biased i still see plenty of scope for improvement.

I cant quite fathom todays run and whilst the bear result should mean ditching him as a guineas/derby prospect im not quite prepared too as i think he would have probably placed today had he not been eased up. It was a very strange end to his run when he was travelling so well. Of course SNA shot by but of the others i see no reason why he wouldnt have finished 2nd had he not been eased heavily. Id recomend taking a look at ATR and viewing his previous win at leicester....he has to be niggled along...shaken up....niggle niggle....he looks laboured and then suddenly he does really accelerate and start to go when he gets the idea...had the jockey worked him today im just wondering if we would have seen the same....he didnt really ask him the questions imo.

All ifs and buts i know and this is not a race id really like to make excuses in but i cant sit comfy with his ride just yet.
lenahan

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcTTb8cZQHM

This is the only video up of todays race so far from an overseas broadcaster.

Looks to me on watching it back a few times that Al Ghazal loses his action at the business end just as he is about to fight it out...jock urges him....he tries to go and briefly does again but once again loses his action before jockey completely gives up and eases on him.

I wouldnt be at all surprised if it comes out in the next few days he picked up a little injury/niggle during the race at those points described above which would explain the events. If that is the case it may be that we could assume he would have finished 2nd/3rd in which case he is not to be ignored at all.

Glad to hear the boards thoughts and feedback on him so far and anything else anyone may add.
kickingkyle

If you have a bet365 account tou can access there archive, i just viewed the race there and wow!

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