Swagger
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Saturday 11 October 2008A couple of small plays for me as we near the end of the flat season:-
2.20 Ascot
DANSILI DANCER @ 40/1 EW Widely available
I would have liked him to be a couple of pounds lower in the handicapper, but he produces his best run in the last run of the season and this will probably be his last race this term.
I can only think Jimmy Tarbuck is the groundsman at Ascot for it to get a going description of 'soft' on the roundcourse, it will ride as good ground in my view. Therefore do not be put off by horses that you think need fast ground, also horses who like firmer ground can get through Ascot when it is deemed soft and you get a far better price as a result - Strategic Mount springs to mind earlier this season.
I don't think this race is particularly strong, Dansili Dancer is a big horse who is difficult to produce at 100% fit and comes to hand at the backend of the season. I rate him as a listed horse so has potential to run at least half a stone above his current mark of 99. I think he has very good place claims at the very least and in reality should be 16/1 but we get the price thanks to the going description of 'soft' as he doesn't like bottomless ground.
Young Mick should go well here and is the principle danger despite creeping up the handicapper as he is a Group 3 horse and I don't think this race is particularly strong. Inventor looks the pick of the 3 yr olds.
4.05 Ascot
KING CHARLES @ 12/1 Win
I'm giving this horse one more chance as it looks a very weak race with only Heaven Knows as a possible danger if he can reproduce the following form;
ASCOT
21 June 2008
Good To Firm
5:00 Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+,0-105) 1m4f
[off 5:01] £37,386.00, £11,196.00, £5,598.00, £2,802.00, £1,398.00, £702.00
Draw TRAINER Age Wgt JOCKEY SP OR TS RPR
1 Sugar Ray (IRE) 14 Sir Michael Stoute 4 9-0 t Ryan Moore 8/1 95 84 106
2 nk Mad Rush (USA) 10 L M Cumani 4 9-2 Jimmy Fortune 5/2F 97 85 108
3 1¾ King Charles (GB) 17 E A L Dunlop 4 9-2 Kerrin McEvoy 18/1 97 83 105+
4 ½ Young Mick 2 G G Margarson 6 9-5 v Robert Winston 20/1 100 85 107
5 ½ Furmigadelagiusta 7 K R Burke 4 9-3 J Murtagh 20/1 98 82 105
6 nk Proponent (IRE) 4 R Charlton 4 9-2 Steve Drowne 8/1 97 81 103+
7 ¾ Camps Bay (USA) 1 Mrs A J Perrett 4 9-3 Jim Crowley 11/1 98 80 103+
8 1¾ Night Crescendo (USA) 9 Mrs A J Perrett 5 9-2 M J Kinane 16/1 97 77 99
9 ¾ Pevensey (IRE) 3 J J Quinn 6 9-0 Graham Gibbons 14/1 95 73 98+
10 1¾ Smart Instinct (USA) 13 R A Fahey 4 8-13 Paul Hanagan 20/1 94 70 92
11 hd Ezdiyaad (IRE) 15 M P Tregoning 4 9-5 R Hills 7/1 100 75 98
12 3¾ Strategic Mount 8 P F I Cole 5 9-1 T Quinn 33/1 96 65 88
13 ½ Capable Guest (IRE) 6 M R Channon 6 9-0 v Richard Hughes 33/1 95 63 86
14 1¾ Pinch Of Salt (IRE) 11 A M Balding 5 8-13 William Buick 33/1 94 59 82
15 nk Players Please (USA) 16 M Johnston 4 9-0 John Egan 33/1 95 60 83
16 12 Coeur De Lionne (IRE) 12 E A L Dunlop 4 9-2 Ted Durcan 33/1 97 42 66
17 5 Jadalee (IRE) 18 G A Butler 5 9-10 N Callan 50/1 105 41 66
18 1½ Gulf Express (USA) 19 Sir Michael Stoute 4 9-1 Jamie Spencer 16/1 96 30 54+
19 hd Evident Pride (USA) 5 B R Johnson 5 9-0 Dane O´Neill 33/1 95 28 53
19 ran TIME 2m 32.95s (slow by 2.95s) TOTAL SP 129%
Again, I think the official going of 'soft' pushes King Charles to a bigger price than he should be. I would rate him an 8/1 chance so 12/1 with Paddy Power is well overpriced thanks to the apparent soft going.
Elsewhere I think the 1.25 Chepstow Handicap Chase is between Bowleaze who looks nailed on for at least a place and The Real Deal. Note any money in the market for the Irish Raider Third Level Tom who could be the plot in the race. I will be interested to note how Sprosser runs in the 2.25 Handicap Chase at Banger as he looked progressive last season, the tight left handed track should really suit him tomorrow and the trainer has started this season with a bang. Rimsky looks the best of the bigger prices.
Regards
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