Saturday 19th July 2008

Swagger · Saturday 19th July 2008

Only one definite bet for me tomorrow, possibly two, both of which come on the Newmarket July Course.

2.35 Newmarket (July)
PRESBYTERIAN NUN
+ Firstly, I think this race is wide open and think the favourite is underpriced. This race evolves around 2 key pieces of form for me;

Exhibit A
YORK
14 May 2008
Good To Firm
2:40 Tattersalls Musidora Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo) (1m2f88y) 1m2½f
[off 2:43] £34,062.00, £12,912.00, £6,462.00, £3,222.00, £1,614.00, £810.00
Draw TRAINER Age Wgt JOCKEY SP OR TS RPR
1 Lush Lashes 2 J S Bolger 3 8-12 K J Manning 2/1F 0 98 113+
2 5 Cape Amber (IRE) 7 P W Chapple-Hyam 3 8-12 Jamie Spencer 9/1 86 89 103
3 1¾ Dar Re Mi 1 J H M Gosden 3 8-12 Jimmy Fortune 100/30 93 86 100
4 hd Moonstone (GB) 8 A P O´Brien 3 8-12 J Murtagh 5/2 0 86 99
5 2¼ Sovereign´s Honour (USA) 4 Sir Michael Stoute 3 8-12 Ryan Moore 12/1 0 81 95
6 1¼ Cruel Sea (USA) 6 B W Hills 3 8-12 Michael Hills 14/1 85 79 92
7 7 Comeback Queen 5 S Kirk 3 8-12 Martin Dwyer 33/1 91 66 78
8 33 Sayyedati Symphony (USA) 3 C E Brittain 3 8-12 John Egan 50/1 86 1 12
8 ran TIME 2m 9.78s (slow by 0.68s) TOTAL SP 114%

But what have Cape Amber, Sovereign's Honour, Cruel Sea and Comeback Queen since this race?
Collectively they have run 7 times and don't even have a place to show for it. Obviously Moonstone has finished 2nd in the English Oaks and won the Irish Oaks, but she came on over a stone for the run so I think her run is pretty irrelevant in the context of the form in the above race in proportion to the other runners, e.g. Would Comeback Queen finish just over a length behind Moonstone if they ran tomorrow, obviously not.
Lush Lashes destroyed the field so the way I look at the race in terms of Dar Re Mi's form is the close proximity of Sovereign Honour and Cruel Sea, both of whom have disappointed since.

Exhibit B
LINGFIELD
10 May 2008
Good To Firm
2:40 totesport 0800 221 221 Oaks Trial Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo) (1m3f106y) 1m3½f
[off 2:40] £25,546.50, £9,684.00, £4,846.50, £2,416.50, £1,210.50, £607.50
1 Miracle Seeker 9 C G Cox 3 8-12 Adam Kirby 10/1 80 83 96
2 ¾ Look Here (GB) 8 R M Beckett 3 8-12 Seb Sanders 2/1 85 81 94+
3 3¼ Presbyterian Nun (IRE) 3 J L Dunlop 3 8-12 S Pasquier 8/1 85 76 89
4 ½ Ice Queen (IRE) 1 A P O´Brien 3 8-12 J Murtagh 13/8F 0 75 88
5 3¼ Classic Remark 7 H J L Dunlop 3 8-12 Eddie Ahern 8/1 0 69 83+
6 1¼ Amanjena 5 A M Balding 3 8-12 William Buick 9/1 92 67 81
6 ran TIME 2m 28.99s (slow by 0.99s) TOTAL SP 112%

Look Here obviously won the English Oaks and Ice Queen came to within nasal hair of winning the Irish equivalent, but to practice as I preach, if we discount them from this race (as I did above with Moonstone and Lush Lashes) then we are left with Miracle Seeker (but she has severly disappointed since and may have been more forward earlier in the season and the other fillies have simply progressed past her), Classic Remark and Amanjena. It's the latter two that interest me here. Classic Remark had finished 4 lengths behind Clowance on her racecourse debut and after the above race, won a decent listed race at 40/1. Amanjena has since finished 2nd in a decent looking class 3 handicap, only finding Swinging Sixties too good for her (who had in turn only found the ultra-impressive Miliary Power too strong for him at York earlier in the season). The Lingfield Oaks Trial looks like rock solid form to me.

This piece of form is interesting, but I simply think that the 2nd, 3rd and 4th horses in the Lingfield Trial will have all trained on beyond Miracle Seeker by now, so I would not interpret any relevant Collateral form from;

SAINT-CLOUD
29 June 2008
Good To Soft
4:00 Prix de Malleret (Group 2) (Fillies) (3yo) 1m4f
[off 4:02] £54,485.00, £21,029.00, £10,037.00, £6,691.00, £3,346.00
Draw TRAINER Age Wgt JOCKEY SP OR TS RPR
1 Treat Gently (GB) 3 A Fabre 3 8-9 S Pasquier 11/10F 95 103
2 nse Leo´s Starlet (IRE) 4 A De Royer-Dupre 3 8-9 C-P Lemaire 5/2 95 103
3 hd Dar Re Mi (GB) 5 J H M Gosden 3 8-9 Jimmy Fortune 7/2 94 103
4 2 Miracle Seeker (GB) 2 C G Cox 3 8-9 O Peslier 9/1 91 100
5 2½ Myakoda 1 Y De Nicolay 3 8-9 C Soumillon 16/1 87 96
5 ran TIME 2m 31.10s (fast by 0.50s) TOTAL SP 114%

And yet Dar Re Mi (who arguably would want softer ground than expected tomorrow) is a forecast 9/4 and Presbyterian Nun is a 20/1 chance. I know where the value lies.

+ Presbyterian Nun had been well fancied by connections (backed in from 14/1 into 8/1) to be a big player in the Lingfield Oaks Trial so were probably slightly disappointed that she only finished 3rd. But she pulled early in the race which wouldn't have helped her chances and we have subsequently found out that it was a very hot race.
+ I think it's interesting that the jockeys booked for her last 5 runs have been Frankie Dettori, Stephane Pasquier, Ryan Moore, Seb Sanders (x2), all top names, which indicate to me that connections have been expecting big performances from this filly.
+ The step up in trip should be in her favour, she stayed on nicely in the Lingfield Trial over 1 mile 3 1/2 furlongs and stayed on well under pressure to take 4th last time out on unsuitably heavy going in the Italian Oaks.
+ The race looks wide open to me, I'm not convinced any other runner stands out on form or should be regarded as a 'good thing' in the race - a shock looks on the cards with a bit of a false favourite in my view.
+ John Dunlops horses are still in fine form and his fillies have been running well of late. The form of a Filly can fluctuate so much over the course of the season, that It is common to see horses improve significantly and step up on previous efforts when it may have seemed unlikely. I would not be surprised if Presbyterian Nun stepped up to much greater effect tomorrow.
+ I was reasonably impressed with her run first time out this season against some of the boys (including Bronze Cannon and Doctor Fremantle), she will have needed that run and wasn't disgraced. The experience would have toughened her up as well.
+ 3 yr olds have won 5/10 runnings, so it's not a race where the older brigade dominate, with the huge weight for age allowance and weight penalties, it would take a talented older horse to land the spoils tomorrow.
- Admittedly, Presbyterian Nun has to actually prove she stays 1 mile and 4 furlongs tomorrow and justify the high esteem connections regard her in.

Recommended Bet:
PRESBYTERIAN NUN - EW (place to break even) at 25/1 with Paddy Power (Best price guaranteed) or 33/1 with Ladbrokes/William Hill

3.35 Newmarket (July)
VITAL STATISTICS
+ She looks to be running off a nice mark of 90 having run some huge races last season in group/listed races with little reward. She takes a huge drop in class tomorrow.
+ She had a nice race last time out on her seasonal reappearance to enable her to strip fully fit tomorrow.
+ Mr Elsworth really excels with this type of horse and it was encouraging to see Barshiba, another of his leading fillies, running a monster race at Ascot last weekend.
+ A reproduction of this piece of form would see her win the race tomorrow, it needs no introduction;
ASCOT
20 June 2007
Good To Firm
2:30 Jersey Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo) 7f
[off 2:31] £36,907.00, £13,988.00, £7,000.50, £3,490.50, £1,748.50, £877.50
Draw TRAINER Age Wgt JOCKEY SP OR TS RPR
1 Tariq 8 P W Chapple-Hyam 3 9-1 Jimmy Fortune 15/2 107 101 117
2 2½ US Ranger (USA) 16 J-C Rouget 3 9-1 C-P Lemaire 6/5F 0 94 110
3 1¼ Arabian Gleam 4 J Noseda 3 9-1 L Dettori 14/1 90 91 107
4 hd Traffic Guard (USA) 5 J S Moore 3 9-1 p John Egan 66/1 105 90 106
5 nk Vital Statistics (GB) 9 D R C Elsworth 3 8-12 T Quinn 33/1 103 86 102
6 3 Sonny Red (IRE) 6 R Hannon 3 9-1 Jamie Spencer 16/1 109 81 97
7 ¾ Theann 11 A P O´Brien 3 8-12 C Soumillon 25/1 0 76 92
8 shd Thousand Words 15 B W Hills 3 9-4 Richard Hughes 9/1 112 82 98
9 ¾ Ferneley (IRE) 13 Francis Ennis 3 9-1 Ted Durcan 25/1 0 77 93
10 2 Fares 12 C E Brittain 3 9-1 b Seb Sanders 50/1 102 71 87
11 ½ Solid Rock (IRE) 7 T G Mills 3 9-1 J Murtagh 33/1 95 70 86
12 shd Chariots Of Fire (IRE) 2 David Wachman 3 9-1 t M J Kinane 12/1 0 70 86
13 shd Strategic Prince 10 P F I Cole 3 9-6 Eddie Ahern 8/1 111 74 90
14 1¾ Southandwest (IRE) 14 J S Moore 3 9-1 L P Keniry 100/1 88 65 81
15 ½ Silca Chiave 17 M R Channon 3 8-12 J H Bowman 20/1 107 60 76
15 ran TIME 1m 26.76s (fast by 0.44s) TOTAL SP 121%
RP - Vital Statistics was another to put in a better effort after finishing sixth in the Free Handicap and unplaced in the Guineas and kept on nicelytowards the far side in the closing stages. She has won in Listed company and there should certainly be further gains for her at that level.

- I'm a little bit put off by her forecast price of 10/1, it seems far too big, i thought she would be around half that price and I am wary of why the bookies seemingly want to take her on when she is the class horse in the race.
- The last 10 winners were drawn in 9 or lower, Vital Statistics is drawn in 11 tomorrow.
- She has a poor win ratio of 2 wins from 16 races, so some may argue she doesn't always go through with her effort. I think she has been running in mainly top class races and in taking a huge step in class should possess a big chance tomorrow.
- She really must have fast ground, and looking at the times at Newmarket (July) this evening, it currently looks like good going at best which would put me off backing her. I will therefore be keeping a close on the weather before playing my hand.

Recommended Bet:
VITAL STATISTICS to Win at 10/1 with Bet365 (Best price guaranteed)

Regards.