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To be updated on Monday 21st July for the biggest coup this season.
Swagger
Apologies for the delay, but I will be waiting until Thursday 24th July before I list the selection.
I must admit that I am pretty exciting but I just hope the trainer can keep it in his trousers, so to speak, and run the horse in the correct race, i.e. the race I have in mind.
Regards.
Swagger
I can finally reveal the horse I have been tracking all season and working out which race he has been aimed at.
Moments come and go in life, but sometimes you just know when the time is right and it is going to happen. I had the same feeling before the Epsom Derby and always knew deep down it was meant to be for New Approach. I have just had the same inspiration, it doesn't happen very often but you have to seize the moment.
The Race: Totesport Mile at Goodwood - Formally known as The Golden Mile
Horse - I have been following him all season...PRINCE OF LIGHT
Why?
He is a prominent runner, he wins his races by being up with the pace, and is like many of his stablemates, a 'Tough Johnston colt' - thou shall not pass.
These are desciptions of the races he has won during his career;
- tracked leader, led 2f out, in command over 1f out, ran on well
- led, headed over 3f out, remained close up, ridden to lead 2f out, ran on
- soon led, ridden and hung left over 1f out
- made all and set steady pace, ridden and quickened over 1f out, ran on
- made all, drifted left inside final furlong, kept on gamely, ridden out
His last 3 races;
- (From Racing Post) 'Prince of Light is well handicapped nowadays and this was another step in the right direction, although he could never land a blow on the winner, having been held up off the pace'!!!!!!!!!!!!
- in touch to 2f out, weakened over 1f
- held up stands side , headway to chase leaders 3f out, ridden and every chance over 2f out, not quicken, weakened 2f out
I backed him for small stakes in his first race this season at Epsom but Johnston specifically stated before the race that he wasn't fit enough and he needed the run badly but would basically come into his own later in the season.
He ran accordingly. But the fact that I thought he was reasonably 'well in' running off a mark of 98 just shows how well treated he now looks down to a mark of 87!!! Yes I said 87. I don't know of many horses who suddenly don't train on from 4 yrs to 5, 2 yrs old to 3 yrs old yes, but not 4 to 5.
This horse ran to marks of 106, 106 and 100 in 3 consecutive races last season and has started to show some promise in his last two runs. Any return to that type of form would potentially see him with over a stone in hand.
He has a decent win ratio for a horse who hasn't won for 2 years - 5/20 on turf, so where did his last win take place...Goodwood over a mile on good to firm ground. He also won over Goodwood as a 2 yr old. As we all know, Goodwood is a specialist course, half the runners in the field probably won't take to the track.
GOODWOOD
05 August 2006
Good To Firm
2:00 Vodafone Thoroughbred Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo) 1m
[off 2:03] £19,873.00, £7,532.00, £3,769.50, £1,879.50, £941.50, £472.50
Draw TRAINER Age Wgt JOCKEY SP OR TS RPR
1 Prince Of Light (IRE) 1 M Johnston 3 9-0 Joe Fanning 9/2 109 85 109
2 ¾ Metropolitan Man 5 D M Simcock 3 9-0 Martin Dwyer 15/2 108 83 107
3 nk City Of Troy 8 Sir Michael Stoute 3 9-0 t Ryan Moore 15/2 100 82 106
4 1½ Dark Islander (IRE) 9 J W Hills 3 9-0 R Hills 4/1J 98 79 103
5 hd True Cause (USA) 3 Saeed Bin Suroor 3 9-0 v L Dettori 6/1 105 78 102+
6 1 Yarqus (GB) 7 C E Brittain 3 9-0 Jimmy Fortune 33/1 100 76 100
7 nk Snoqualmie Boy 2 D R C Elsworth 3 9-4 John Egan 6/1 111 79 103
8 shd Multidimensional (IRE) 6 H R A Cecil 3 9-0 Ted Durcan 4/1J 101 75 99
8 ran TIME 1m 38.27s (slow by 1.07s) TOTAL SP 113%
The beauty of this race is that Metropolitan Man and Dark Islander finishing behind Prince of Light, and being such reliable horses that nearly always run their race, they are great yardsticks for the form and illustrate that he can run to a mark of genuine listed class.
But can he win in big fields?
YORK
16 August 2005
Good
4:10 Irwin Mitchell Solicitors Stakes (Nursery) (Class 2) (2yo) 6f
[off 4:12] £14,885.00, £4,580.00, £2,290.00, £1,145.00
Draw TRAINER Age Wgt JOCKEY SP OR TS RPR
1 Prince Of Light (IRE) 2 M Johnston 2 9-4 Joe Fanning 9/2J 85 102 103
2 1¾ Final Verse 1 Sir Michael Stoute 2 9-6 M J Kinane 10/1 87 97 100
3 1¼ New Art (USA) 7 J Noseda 2 9-3 Ted Durcan 5/1 84 90 93
4 2½ High Curragh (GB) 8 K A Ryan 2 9-3 K Fallon 9/2J 84 80 86
5 1¼ Curtail (IRE) 15 E S McMahon 2 9-6 Graham Gibbons 22/1 87 78 85
6 shd Tiber Tilly 6 N P Littmoden 2 8-10 Chris Catlin 20/1 77 67 74
7 ¾ Skhilling Spirit 12 T D Barron 2 9-2 7 Jamie Spencer 14/1 83 70 81+
8 hd Robustian 14 R F Johnson Houghton 2 9-0 Stephen Carson 20/1 81 67 76
9 1¼ Celebration Song (IRE) 11 W R Swinburn 2 9-3 T Quinn 25/1 84 65 75
10 nk Observatory Star (IRE) 13 T D Easterby 2 8-9 e/s1 K Darley 33/1 76 56 66
11 nk Richterhoffen (IRE) 16 R Hannon 2 8-13 Richard Hughes 20/1 80 59 69
12 shd Silidan 3 T P Tate 2 9-2 John Egan 66/1 83 61 72
13 ¾ Sand Cat 5 D M Simcock 2 9-6 Eddie Ahern 16/1 87 62 74
14 1½ Tora Petcha (IRE) 10 R Hollinshead 2 9-7 W J Supple 33/1 88 57 70
15 2 Viva Volta 17 T D Easterby 2 8-7 David Allan 14/1 74 35 50
16 11 River Kintyre 4 B W Hills 2 9-7 Michael Hills 7/1 88 5 31
17 15 River Crossing 9 T D Easterby 2 8-11 J Murtagh 33/1 78 — —
I propose that this horse has been targetted (as Lovelace was at Sandown) for this race for a long time, maybe since the end of last season. Mark Johnston's horses have suddenly hit a rich vein of form and after a dry spell, his runners have either been winning or running monster races in the big handicaps for the past few weekends and Glorious Goodwood has often been a meeting he has great success with.
Mark Johnston won the race back in 2001 with another 5 yr old in the shape of Riberac, there are a couple of factors that could stop the coup.
(I) Is if he fails to make the final declarations as he is so well handicapped
(II) The draw.
The last 8 winners were drawn 16 or higher, some commentators claim the best horse can win from any draw, etc, I disagree as in some races it really makes all the difference and this looks to have been the case in this race of late.
But if my feeling is correct, I just think he will somehow land a plum draw in something like stall 16.
He had several other engagements this week, but I was somewhat relieved to see him withdrawn out of every race, including the Totesport International Handicap at Ascot. I was not at all surprised to see him withdrawn from that race as the trainer has a leading player in Lovelace and Prince of Light really seems to excel at Goodwood which is a huge positive for any horse running on the track.
I have noted that he currently has a couple of other entries at the Glorious meeting next week, in my opinion, he won't take his chance in the 10 furlong race as he is better of a mile, but admittedly he could take his chance in the weaker class 3 handicap rated 0-90 on the Tuesday. I think Johnston would like to run him in the Totesport Mile, but as previously mentioned, he could be so well in that he may miss the final declarations. I wouldn't be surprised if Mr Johnston has been and will continue to be phoning around the other trainers in an attempt to work out if the Prince will make the cut for the big race. Should he take his chance on Tuesday, I would back him for that race, but it could be a blowout for the bigger handicap should he get in. Either way, I sense the horse is ready to win at Glorious Goodwood next week. Even though Mr Johnston has Dubai's Touch (runs tonight in the 7.55 Doncaster)entered for the same race at this stage, I have far greater preference for the Prince.
He is currently 50/1 antepost with Ladbrokes, I have put a small amount on antepost and intend to build up once the market is NRNB. If he gets drawn in stall 16 then I could see him being slashed into around 14/1.
I have also placed the horse in an EW double with Giganticus @ 16/1 with Ladbrokes (a horse tracked all season by Saintalebe).
Recommended Bets:
PRINCE OF LIGHT EW in the Totesport Mile at Goodwood Antepost @ 50/1 with Ladbrokes (Top up when NRNB)
EW Double: PRINCE OF LIGHT EW in the Totesport Mile at Goodwood Antepost @50/1 and GIGANTICUS EW in the Totesport International Handicap at Ascot NRNB @16/1 with Ladbrokes
Regards to all
Swagger
Well, after all that The Prince failed to make the cut by around 7 horses. I only had a very small Win bet on him when he ran on Tuesday as I thought it may have been a blowout and he was drawn badly for his style of racing.
In his absence, I have switched my allegience to his stable companion, DUBAI'S TOUCH.
Having previously been very bullish about the Prince's chances, and not so much for Dubai's Touch, it must now be pointed out that he is only 1 of 4 horses in the field that represents course and distance next to his name which often counts for so much around the track.
Of the other 3 who have C&D, Unshakable looks a horse to me who is very unlikely to be able to win running off a mark of 90 at 9 yrs old but capable of placing, Illustrious Blue does have great course form but doesn't look obviously well handicapped running off a mark of 105 over a mile and Dhaular Dhar looks to have been conditioned to run over 7 furlongs of late and is drawn in the car park in stall 3 of 20. That leaves us with Dubai's Touch who of course has strong C&D.
GOODWOOD
04 August 2007
Good To Firm
2:45 Bluesquarepoker.com Thoroughbred Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo) 1m
[off 2:46] £17,034.00, £6,456.00, £3,231.00, £1,611.00, £807.00, £405.00
Draw TRAINER Age Wgt JOCKEY SP OR TS RPR
1 Dubai´s Touch 7 M Johnston 3 9-4 Royston Ffrench 16/1 110 114 112
2 shd Traffic Guard (USA) 10 J S Moore 3 9-0 p John Egan 9/1 105 109 108
3 hd Tobosa (GB) 2 W Jarvis 3 9-0 Michael Hills 7/2J 114 108 108
4 nk Basaata (USA) 6 M P Tregoning 3 8-9 R Hills 25/1 92 102 102
5 ¾ Rahiyah (USA) 4 J Noseda 3 8-9 Ted Durcan 9/2 113 100 100
6 1 Italian Girl 1 A P Jarvis 3 8-9 J Murtagh 8/1 103 97 98
7 shd Tybalt (USA) 9 J H M Gosden 3 9-0 Jimmy Fortune 7/2J 101 101 103
8 13 Rallying Cry (USA) 5 Saeed Bin Suroor 3 9-0 t Kerrin McEvoy 8/1 105 66 73
9 1 Eddie Jock (IRE) 11 M L W Bell 3 9-0 Jamie Spencer 8/1 111 63 71
9 ran TIME 1m 37.20s (equals standard time) TOTAL SP 115%
RP - DUBAI'S TOUCH, outclassed over 7f by Tariq at Group 2 level earlier in the week, brought strong Listed form to the table with two good wins at that level, but the perception was that the Group-raced and placed market leaders would come out best. Despite Eddie Jock's best efforts to force the pace, the finishers never landed a blow with three of the first four home in that position from early in the straight. Dubai's Touch was a supremely game winner, seeing off rivals on both sides, and connections pointed onwards and upwards with this consistent colt. He holds entries in the Group 2 Hungerford back over 7f and the Group 3 Desmond that weekend in Ireland as well as the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes next month.
I won't go on too much as he is after all, an obvious selection with the trainer in hot form and with the horse's C&D, he is therefore a somewhat predictable selection.
Basically, Excluding the 3 yr olds, I do not think there are many horses in the field that scream out as being outstandingly well handicapped, and of the 3 yr old, 0/29 have tried and failed to land this race in the past 10 years. However this is a little misleading, as a couple have got to within a whisker of winning - 4/29 finished 2nd, 1/29 came 3rd and 1/29 ended up in 4th. Why do they fare so badly, well that is purely subjective, but it's not easy to take on more experienced horses for one and secondly, a lot of the tough handicaps the 3 yr olds ran in earlier in the season, such as at Ascot, can really take it's toll on them later in the season.
Bearing that in mind, and as much as I like Masaalek and respect his chances from his favourable looking draw (19/20) - I am prepared to let him land the spoils here at 9/2. The other 3 yr olds also look underpriced, but their chances must be respected and I fully expect at least one of them to run a big race and finish in the first 3.
The last 8 winners were drawn in stall 16 or higher;
16 - Huzzah (3 yr old)
17 - Cape Hawk (Better on the all weather, won a poor race on the turf last time out)
18 - Dubai's Touch (Mark Johnston's only runner - must be respected)
19 - Masaalek (3 yr old)
20 - Fifteen Love (3 yr old)
Quite simply I don't think there are any handicapped 'good thing's aged 4 or over in the Golden Mile, Dubai's Touch is a proven listed/Group 3 horse running in a class 2 handicap. The dangers are the 3 yr olds as they are all well drawn as previously mentioned, or an improving 4 yr old who could yet prove to be a Group 3 horse like Lang Shining. But with Dubai's Touch running off a mark of 100 - he looks pretty well handicapped to me in relation to the field and well worth full consideration.
Take out last years winner who was a handicapped good thing, the horses over the previous 9 yrs averaged running 12 lb's over their Official Rating to win the race, there's only a handful of horses who I could see doing that, including those already highlighted in this article. Out of interest Dubai's Touch ran to an RPR of 112 last year at the meeting (see above) and runs off 100 tomorrow.
The Draw has been important over the years, I remember Cesare couldn't win from his low draw a few years back, even though he is an Ascot Specialist, I think he would have won with the aid of a high draw;
The winner has often come from the top 5 in the betting and DT is currently 6th in the list, but I'm sure he will be in the top 5 before the race!
Of the others I like Military Cross, who has a progressive profile and I can envisage him running a big race despite his apparent bad draw, I am a fan of Lang Shining, but he is going to have to step up from what he has shown to date and may prefer a bit of cut in the ground from his low draw, Gold Sovereignis a fine stamp of a horse, and although he could be anything, he will need to overcome inexperience and a draw in the car park (2/20). I can see horses like Unshakable, Flipando, Vitznau and Pride of Nation running big races and challenging for a place.
The reason Dubai's Touch is still available at 14/1 from his favourable looking draw is his apparent poor run last time out. He fell out the stalls and didn't show his true form, in any event, it may have simply been a blow out for his big day on Friday. Therefore, although it's an obvious play, they say don't look a gift horse in the mouth...
Recommended Bet: DUBAI'S TOUCH Each Way (place to break even) @14/1 with StanJames and Boylesports - Best Price Guaranteed
