Step into the Lion's Den

Swagger · Step into the Lion's Den

Awful card tomorrow and a day to go out and give the racing a miss...except the Geoffrey Freer at Newbury at 2.40.

Tomorrows renewal is all about race conditions, and i think it will suit Lion Sands in every way, in that;

1) The trip should be absolutely ideal for him
2) The galloping, and mainly flat track will suit his style of running
3) There is a long straight on the run in of around 5 furlongs which should again really suit his style of running
4) Crucially, there should be a decent, proper pace on during the race which is arguably more important than any other factor for him. Peppertree Lane, Eastern Anthem, Templestern and Donegal generally like to either make the running or sit up in the van. I would be bitterly disappointed if there wasn't a strong pace on tomorrow, which as already mentioned will really play to the strengths of Lion Sands.

He is 7/1 tomorrow for two reasons, his last two runs and the going.

I will address them one at a time.

Firstly, Lion Sands' run at Newmarket two runs ago has been put down by many due to his apparent dislike for soft ground. I completely disagree on two counts. Firstly, the ground wasn't that soft in the Princess of Wales Stakes and the crucial reason for his below par run was, in my view, the extremely slow pace dictated by Jimmy Fortune on Lucarno. Lets not forget how Papal Bull showed the form to be irrelevant by beating the winner out of sight in the King George in a properly run race.

Moreover, In my view his run last time out can be explained due to race conditions that were never going to suit him, namely the lack of pace and the track itself. When looking to hold every chance, he hit the front a little bit too soon but with the pace being so slow he didn't really have much choice and couldn't show his true form as a result. In addition, there are not many courses that would play to his weaknesses more than Goodwood, it really is a horrible course for a horse like him - I was actually impressed and surprised by how well he ran.

Secondly, the going - is it a problem for him? It is an interesting question regarding Lion Sands. His Dam's Sire is Darshaan, he is closely related to Sadler's Wells and Shirley Heights, so on breeding it could be argued that he would actually prefer cut in the ground. His racecourse debut at HQ was on soft ground and yet he finished in 3rd, beaten by under 4 lengths in a race he was always going to come on a lot for (horrible cliche but true).

The report of the race described him to have run as follow;
'mid-division, headway over 1f out, shaken up, ran on well inside final furlong' - Does that sound like a horse who doesn't act on soft ground?

I remember Papal Bull winning the corresponding race last year on what is likely to be similar ground tomorrow. The former prefers fast ground but had a strong pace in the race and duly hacked up.

I think people are getting the pace of a race and the going mixed up in this instance. And, there is an argument that when the pace is strong, the going becomes much less of a factor in any event. My summary is that the going tomorrow will not effect Lion Sand's performance on the track, provided there is a decent pace, which I envisage. However, the going tomorrow could push out his price which is all the better for us.

Sixties Icon is a fascinating horse, and contrary to what most believe, I think he relishes a crawl and kicks clear at the business end of a race. In theory, I would have thought he should have been around 2/1 favourite for tomorrows race after winning nicely last time out and having won a St Leger with the step up in trip surely in his favour. However, the bookies are willing to offer you 100/30 - I find that most interesting. I think they, like me, can envisage a strong pace on during the race tomorrow and as a consequence, may not be run to suit him under his 2 lb penalty, and are therefore willing to take him on despite the stewardship of Johnny Murtagh. Ask yourself - how many strongly run races has Sixties Icon actually won? Arguably none.

Geordieland is another fascinating runner, but I think he has it all to do if he to win under his penalty and drop in trip. Place chances look on the cards. Donegal is an intriguing 3 yr old, but I am not convinced by his overall form to date and it is always hard for 3 yr olds when running against older horses for the first time.

I make Lion Sands the fastest horse in the race, and with race conditions likely to be in his favour, I strongly view him as the horse to be on. The jockey booking of Ryan Moore is eye-catching and I can only foresee a huge run tomorrow. Peppertree Lane is tough, genuine and consistant, and should there be a funny pace then he could be the horse to benefit from the front.

Recommended Bets:
LION SANDS - 7/1 Each Way with Paddy Power (Best Guaranteed Odds)
PEPPERTREE LANE - 8/1 Each Way with Ladbrokes (To cover the stake on Lion Sands)

Regards to all.