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value seeker

the masters

Tiger 5/2 best, a shoo in or what ,can Garcia win his first major ,surely he aint going be a monty crying why havent i won a major ,or maybe lefty took him a while to win one but looks like he will get a few more .
The good thing with woods in the field if you dont fancy the tiger you can get real good odds on anyone else
There are many markets available and i will be looking for the best value ,whats your thoughts fancies etc on the first major of 2009
ngreggors

Re: the masters

value seeker wrote:
Tiger 5/2 best, a shoo in or what ,can Garcia win his first major ,surely he aint going be a monty crying why havent i won a major ,or maybe lefty took him a while to win one but looks like he will get a few more .
The good thing with woods in the field if you dont fancy the tiger you can get real good odds on anyone else
There are many markets available and i will be looking for the best value ,whats your thoughts fancies etc on the first major of 2009


My main bet is on Nick Watney at 50/1 (Paddy Power e/w top 6)
He's been near the top of a lot of leaderboards this year and has the length to tame Augusta. He did fairly well last year too.
Have also punted on Els (too big a price at 45/1?) and have more speculative wagers on Allenby at 125/1 & Mediate at 250/1 (obviously all e/w)
awaywardlad

So far have

Tiger Woods - have been given various small free bets(£25) and put all on Woods at 7/4 to 9/4 .

Only one ap bet about 2 weeks ago on Nick Watney at 80/1 - 1/4 1.2.3.4.5,.

Have placed a small "fun" bet with "Sid" James this evening for the first round leader to be - Villegas @ 40/1 Scott @ 66/1 & Pettereson @ 150/1 - all ew at 1/4 odds a place 1,2,3,4,5,6.

Will advise more later after further study.

2315 hrs Monday - just had a tiny touch on Bubba Watson @ 550 on Betfair.
alfieatkins

whats the chances of a masters comp?
ngreggors

I've also had a litte punt on Mickelson to miss the cut @ 9/1. You never know with Lefty!!
popeye_uk

Woods has a pretty poor WIN record in the Masters lately - a relative 6/1 shot.

He has to be opposed!

Who by?

R Goosen - 25/1
Z Johnson - 50/1
A Romero - generally 80/1 but I got 134/1 yesterday on Betdaq!!! ;)

Paddy Power are doing first 6 - 1/4 odds!
value seeker

Thought corals 20/1 for mickelson and woods to be the final pair on Sunday was a  great value price ,but didnt get on early enought and the 20/1 retreated as fast as west broms defence has all this season ,16s still available with corals ,five mins ago, so have took that ,lefty and tiger going head to head in the last pairing come Sunday,that would be superb but  lets be honest it  is the obvious form choice ,so 16s to me is still value .
Regards
Value seeker
Machiavellian

Used a free bet off the Nanny to back Tiger a few months ago.

Added each ways on Paul Casey and Nick Watney earlier today.
value seeker

Machiavellian wrote:
Used a free bet off the Nanny to back Tiger a few months ago.

Added each ways on Paul Casey and Nick Watney earlier today.


Wont take the early short price for the tiger as feel sure you will get a better in running price ,Watney is a great outsider ,he looks to have a great future ,a winner this year and 11th in the masters last year,i will drink to watney giving you a good run for your money,cheers
value seeker

top bet ogilvy top autralian ,who has he got to beat ,took 6/4 betfair
Done Watney ,top five finish currently 10.0 on betfair
Owl of Minerva

Pleased to see some other Nick Watney fans. He's my only bet e/w @ 45/1 with PP (6 places)
lochsong

Is the old boy Fred Couples worth an e/w punt @ 80's.

Course form.

PP paying 6 places?

Read that in the paper.
popeye_uk

lochsong wrote:
Is the old boy Fred Couples worth an e/w punt @ 80's.

.


Yes he is!
kickingkyle

Had Mcilroy @ 42 and Watney at 50s, both for intrest really in the hope i cna lay back for my stake, dont think iv ever had a winner @ golf!
Owl of Minerva

Owl of Minerva wrote:
Pleased to see some other Nick Watney fans. He's my only bet e/w @ 45/1 with PP (6 places)


Great start for Watney. -3 thru 13

Have also backed him in the 'top US player w/out Woods' market e/w @ 14/1 (4 places) and in the 'w/out Tiger Woods' market e/w @ 30/1 (5 places)
kickingkyle

finished 2 under, seemed to be 2 or 3 under most the way.
alfieatkins

backed a few on bf today av got

kim
choi
appelby
stenson
kraymer

all in the outright market

also got lyle to be top uk irish market
Owl of Minerva

kickingkyle wrote:
finished 2 under, seemed to be 2 or 3 under most the way.


-5 for the 4 par 5's (Eagle, Birdie, Birdie, Birdie) but pretty average on the par 3s and 4s. Something to bear in mind for the in running traders
lochsong

Seems a very benign course today. That will change.

Whilst the slow starting Tiger can always pounce I'm predicting a win for Mahan.

You?
oncebitten

Hi Lochsong
Are you any good with your golfing predictions? I hope so as I have Mahan at 100/1, as well as Casey, Watney, McIlroy and Kim.
lochsong

Hi oncebitten

Frankly I'm crap at golf - period - but good luck with your Mahan bet.

I read that he entered the Masters in rude form and that is always a good thing.

value seeker

Backed  Kenny Perry 36 ,cant leave him out ,one of those if he was to win ,you would be fuming,as you follow them a lot
lochsong

Just had £4 on Mahan @44s for an interest.

C'mon!
kickingkyle

lochsong wrote:
Just had £4 on Mahan @44s for an interest.

C'mon!


Not doing too well today
value seeker

Furyk a lay at present imo as low as 13s,has been all over the place of late
YAIYAM

I have a few up near the top
Mahan, Cink, Baddeley, Merrick & Woods
value seeker

value seeker wrote:
Backed  Kenny Perry 36 ,cant leave him out ,one of those if he was to win ,you would be fuming,as you follow them a lot

8.4 now ,come on kENNY ,GET IN THE HOLE
Machiavellian

http://www.atdhe.net/live-tv-5348.html

Link for coverage of all the holes before the Beeb coverage starts.
Owl of Minerva

Machiavellian wrote:
http://www.atdhe.net/live-tv-5348.html

Link for coverage of all the holes before the Beeb coverage starts.


Legend. Thanks
Owl of Minerva

Watney -4. Go on son!
alfieatkins

sandy lyle finishes the 2nd round on 2 under, dont think many folk would have seen that comming

well played sir- enjoy it
cre8flow

tiger has a slight limp-nobody on the planet has mentioned it



and it must be creating some kind of concern within

have to wonder how much he can work at the long game with that knee


like the south american at -8 to win i
glennie1970

my bets in this were ;

top ten and top five markets

Kim  (wish I had taken some of the 40/1 available after the first round)
Scott  (missed cut)
Immelman (not his year unless gets his putter going)

I put an extra top ten bet on Cabrera before the 2nd round started at 3/1.

Cabrera and Kim to give me interest up to Sunday night.
kickingkyle

glennie1970 wrote:
my bets in this were ;

top ten and top five markets

Kim  (wish I had taken some of the 40/1 available after the first round)
Scott  (missed cut)
Immelman (not his year unless gets his putter going)

I put an extra top ten bet on Cabrera before the 2nd round started at 3/1.

Cabrera and Kim to give me interest up to Sunday night.


I have a slip ew for Kim at  50s, only problem is....its not mine and i put it on for my mate!
value seeker

alfieatkins wrote:
sandy lyle finishes the 2nd round on 2 under, dont think many folk would have seen that comming

well played sir- enjoy it

remember sit in the pouring rain at Birkdale last year at a early hole ,everyone soaked to the skin awaiting Sandy in a three ball ,turned out to a two ball ,conditions to cold and wet for poor old Sandy ,yet we had all paid £52 to see golfers like this so called scottish legend
harchiefan

I have some nice bets on this at the moment.Took a scattergun approach before the start and also stuck in hefty Tiger,Ogilvy and McIlroy lays.

€25 on C.Campbell @ 250
€10 on Cabrera @ 200
€150 on Lefty 17/2 and €6 @ 180
€30 on A.Kim @ 65 and €10 @ 230
€10 on N.Watney @ 230

and wait for it.....

€105 on T.Hamilton @ 999/1(dont ask,its a long story)+ €10 to place @100

Anyway with numerous in running bets,all in the top 20 are minimum 4 figure winners except for
Garcia(-700),Ogilvy(-800) and of course my hero Tiger(-2.5k)

Will probably try to reduce the losses on these 3 before the off.Tiger is currently 5s so an early bogey would be much appreciated.

Hamilton is trading @ 60 so its really not worth laying off anything.If he keeps in contention(i dont really expect him to)there will be a lot of shouting at the tv in a certain Dublin household.

Should be an interesting night.
archie mackenzie

some intresting punts there harchie  
fingers crossed for you to clean up
my kid brother has a few decent punts going into the weekend to and hes a excited bunny so fingers crossed for you both  
cheers archie.
alfieatkins

vs- a think its a bit harsh to judge lyle on that sole incident, a think he has proved over the years what a well respected player he is

end of rant
value seeker

[quote="value seeker"]Backed  Kenny Perry 36 ,cant leave him out ,one of those if he was to win ,you would be fuming,as you follow them a lot[/quote

in a nice position at present
value seeker

Wearing my statto cap today instead of my easter bonnet ,in the last 18 masters only one winner has not been in the last group on the Sunday,lets hope it stays that way,Got Kenny Perry for a good few bob ,normally quite steady and traded some out on Cabera ,but Perry is the one i want and am quite hopefull ,famous last words.
glennie1970

value seeker wrote:
Wearing my statto cap today instead of my easter bonnet ,in the last 18 masters only one winner has not been in the last group on the Sunday,lets hope it stays that way,Got Kenny Perry for a good few bob ,normally quite steady and traded some out on Cabera ,but Perry is the one i want and am quite hopefull ,famous last words.


I only need Cabrera in the top ten to collect on mine. I am a little more confident  

Been nice if Anthony Kim could have a good final round and finish top ten also, would be a double pay day
YAIYAM

When i get players up there i like to trade it to spread it out accross the players up there, I have stricker just about in green but today have decided to take alot off Campbell and Perry and go for the Cabrerra win as he looks like he is is just playing better than the others.
Best result for me would be for Dustin Johnson to make the top 10 but i think he needs to shoot a 68 or better to make that.
value seeker

done ogilvy top australian 6/4 ,one clear of Badderley,thought he would have put that one to bed by now ,so bit peed off with that  one,the problem with golf is when you are in a strong position you need really to stay up and watch it,if tonight for example some one comes out the pack and pinches it ,you are not much good if you are in bed asleep and wake up to find your betfair account has had a large chunk of cash taken out of it
kickingkyle

Could be a great night. How much weights has Lefty lost!
harchiefan

This is more like it.This is why the Masters is my favourite tournament.

Love it.
Owl of Minerva

Pressure really getting to Cabrera, Campbell etc.
value seeker

value seeker wrote:
done ogilvy top australian 6/4 ,one clear of Badderley,thought he would have put that one to bed by now ,so bit peed off with that  one,the problem with golf is when you are in a strong position you need really to stay up and watch it,if tonight for example some one comes out the pack and pinches it ,you are not much good if you are in bed asleep and wake up to find your betfair account has had a large chunk of cash taken out of it

that one done and dusted ogily finishes top aussie ,come on kenny hang in there
Owl of Minerva

Tiger on a charge. Big chance now with some others choking. Backed him @ 7.8
harchiefan

Owl of Minerva wrote:
Tiger on a charge. Big chance now with some others choking. Backed him @ 7.8


Really hard to call.Perry,Campbell and Angel have the 2 par 5s to play which will be crucial.
Financially Perry and Cab are my worst winners so wouldnt mind if the pressure gets to them.

Damn,Perry bird at 12.
YAIYAM

well done glennie, harchiefan and anyone else who got there players up there.
Personally I think as long as you took a little risk and bet bold there it was harder to lose money then win over that back 9
value seeker

Its approx 11.20 pm,i have to up at 440am ,Perry hits a brilliant shot from the tee to within three feet of the pin at the 16th ,giveme put for a two shot lead ,in she goes Perry walks to the 17th with a two shot lead ,i look at the screen on betfair .i have a very nice big figure in green ,i look at Perrys price its 1.19 ,time to go to bed i thinks game over ,no better stay just to make sure ,i think should i lay off at 1/10 ,the finger hangs over the lay button ,no it will be ok,theres a spring in his step ,hes been solid for 70 holes, wont mess up over the last two ,sometimes life can be so cruel
Owl of Minerva

value seeker wrote:
Its approx 11.20 pm,i have to up at 440am ,Perry hits a brilliant shot from the tee to within three feet of the pin at the 16th ,giveme put for a two shot lead ,in she goes Perry walks to the 17th with a two shot lead ,i look at the screen on betfair .i have a very nice big figure in green ,i look at Perrys price its 1.19 ,time to go to bed i thinks game over ,no better stay just to make sure ,i think should i lay off at 1/10 ,the finger hangs over the lay button ,no it will be ok,theres a spring in his step ,hes been solid for 70 holes, wont mess up over the last two ,sometimes life can be so cruel


You backed him at 36 but didn't lay off when you had the chance @ 1.19.

Unreal  
glennie1970

The option to lay off my stake, not huge (£50) on the top ten bet of Cabrera was always in the back of my mind and I guess if I had stood to win a great deal more than £200 I might well have succombed and I also had the luxury of 10 chances to win.

Had a little  play on the win market over the final 9 holes - a fiver here and there and managed to have the top 3 in green on my betfair account by backing and laying. In the end I nicked another £45 on Cabrera winning.
YAIYAM

Owl of Minerva wrote:
value seeker wrote:
Its approx 11.20 pm,i have to up at 440am ,Perry hits a brilliant shot from the tee to within three feet of the pin at the 16th ,giveme put for a two shot lead ,in she goes Perry walks to the 17th with a two shot lead ,i look at the screen on betfair .i have a very nice big figure in green ,i look at Perrys price its 1.19 ,time to go to bed i thinks game over ,no better stay just to make sure ,i think should i lay off at 1/10 ,the finger hangs over the lay button ,no it will be ok,theres a spring in his step ,hes been solid for 70 holes, wont mess up over the last two ,sometimes life can be so cruel


You backed him at 36 but didn't lay off when you had the chance @ 1.19.

Unreal  


It does make you wonder why people bother using Betfair if they are not going to use it for what it is there for.
Gorg_George

Not everyone likes to lay under any circumstances, whats the problem with that? I suppose it's the incorrect way to gamble?
YAIYAM

Gorg_George wrote:
Not everyone likes to lay under any circumstances, whats the problem with that? I suppose it's the incorrect way to gamble?


The difference between 36.0 and 1.19 is so big the Lay back at 1.19 would mean you would not even notice the amount gone off your winning bet if it did win.
Not laying back at these prices is like finding a £10 note on a road picking it up then throwing it back down thinking that you will find 2 £50 notes later on that day.
theGoingStick

YAIYAM wrote:
Gorg_George wrote:
Not everyone likes to lay under any circumstances, whats the problem with that? I suppose it's the incorrect way to gamble?


The difference between 36.0 and 1.19 is so big the Lay back at 1.19 would mean you would not even notice the amount gone off your winning bet if it did win.
Not laying back at these prices is like finding a £10 note on a road picking it up then throwing it back down thinking that you will find 2 £50 notes later on that day.


In that scenario you'd have to be mad not to lay back at least your stake for a free bet. I don't think it's anything to do with the right or wrong way to gamble it just seems like a sensible thing to do.
YAIYAM

If you put it in figures(without commision) it actual looks worse than what it sounds like.

£10 @ 36.0 = profit of £350 with a -£10 on every other player.
You lay back your stake at 1.20 putting every player back to £0 and your profit @ £338
value seeker

Some harsh comments ,hignsight is always a marvellous thing . when he walked off the 16th ,i knew by then i had collected on Ogilvy top Australian so knew whatever happened i would be well on top for the tounament as i had Campbell to win also Cabera backed ,sometimes you have to make snap decisions and i becided just to ride this one ,but yes lesson learned
Gorg_George

YAIYAM wrote:
If you put it in figures(without commision) it actual looks worse than what it sounds like.

£10 @ 36.0 = profit of £350 with a -£10 on every other player.
You lay back your stake at 1.20 putting every player back to £0 and your profit @ £338


Thanks for the lesson I'm fully aware of how betfair works, I'm simply stating not everyone likes to lay under any circumstances, whether I'd lay in that position or not is irrelivent. It's not non-sensible or incorrect to not lay a bet because it's capitulated in price a lot, It's not everyones cup and a lot of people don't even understand it in the slightest, you don't always place a bet with a trade in mind, at least not everyone does and why should they? The fact this particular bet lost is also irrelivent, a 1.19 shot is normally a 1.19 shot for a reason.
YAIYAM

It's not non-sensible or incorrect to not lay a bet because it's capitulated in price a lot.
It is if the reason why you have done that bet is to win money rather than actually want the player in question to win.

It's not everyones cup and a lot of people don't even understand it in the slightest.
VS obviously does as he has stated his finger was above the keys ready to do the lay.

you don't always place a bet with a trade in mind.
Any golf or Tennis bet i do is in the knowledge that a trade will always be the first thing i am looking for especially in Tennis because i don't actually care which player wins.

at least not everyone does and why should they?
But surely part of getting the bigger price on Betfair is to be able to trade out at a lower price.

The fact this particular bet lost is also irrelivent, a 1.19 shot is normally a 1.19 shot for a reason.
I agree it is Irrelevant wether the 1.19 shot goes on to win or lose but that really makes a stronger argument for why you should Lay because although it is more than likely on price they are going to win you are locking in profit to make it so you don't actually care wether it wins or not.


I am the same as everyone else i learnt through hard mistakes, I placed a massive bet some years ago on Fredrick Jacobson to make the ryder cup team @ 12/1 he was in a really strong position trading as low as 1/14-1/20 and i never laid off, I even thought he was going to get one of the captains picks after finishing 6th on both the qualifyings rankings (top 5 only) after being in the qualifying positions right up until the last couple of weeks only for Donald and someone else to get them.
I have never been in that position again and not laid off because i learnt from that point on, If next time VS is in the same position i suspect he will remeber his Kenny Perry bet and lay without hesitation if he doesn't he has learnt nothing
value seeker

YAIYAM wrote:
It's not non-sensible or incorrect to not lay a bet because it's capitulated in price a lot.
It is if the reason why you have done that bet is to win money rather than actually want the player in question to win.

It's not everyones cup and a lot of people don't even understand it in the slightest.
VS obviously does as he has stated his finger was above the keys ready to do the lay.

you don't always place a bet with a trade in mind.
Any golf or Tennis bet i do is in the knowledge that a trade will always be the first thing i am looking for especially in Tennis because i don't actually care which player wins.

at least not everyone does and why should they?
But surely part of getting the bigger price on Betfair is to be able to trade out at a lower price.

The fact this particular bet lost is also irrelivent, a 1.19 shot is normally a 1.19 shot for a reason.
I agree it is Irrelevant wether the 1.19 shot goes on to win or lose but that really makes a stronger argument for why you should Lay because although it is more than likely on price they are going to win you are locking in profit to make it so you don't actually care wether it wins or not.


I am the same as everyone else i learnt through hard mistakes, I placed a massive bet some years ago on Fredrick Jacobson to make the ryder cup team @ 12/1 he was in a really strong position trading as low as 1/14-1/20 and i never laid off, I even thought he was going to get one of the captains picks after finishing 6th on both the qualifyings rankings (top 5 only) after being in the qualifying positions right up until the last couple of weeks only for Donald and someone else to get them.
I have never been in that position again and not laid off because i learnt from that point on, If next time VS is in the same position i suspect he will remeber his Kenny Perry bet and lay without hesitation if he doesn't he has learnt nothing

fair points ,but as stated not everyone is up on betfair ,so hopefully this post will help a few ,One thing that has to be said ,is that you have to be near a computor or you can phone betfair when you get the chance to lay ,thats is ok for the pro or semi pro gambler but not also so easy for the average working man.
Betfair is a learning curb and the more you lose is probably better as it teaches you to learn by your mistakes.
Heres another one i made yesterday but it will teach me ,Redcar was a really hard placepot in my opinion,I decided to have a go .even though it might cost me a few extra lines than normal .
I finished up with 54 lines ,i got up to the last and knew it would pay well .i had two in a 7 horse race .,or so i  thought ,one was a non runner and the other was in the morning around the 5s mark ,it was second or third fav in the early shows so i felt safe ,this meant i was on the fav cause of my non runner and my selection ,two in a six horse race ,any bad.
Then my horse was backed in to fav just before the off ,i only had a min or two to make my mind ,run to the computer and lay my selection or hold out and if it was to get placed would double my lines ,probaly throught tiredness ,been up since 440 pm decided to hang fire and you probably guessed what happened ,just got caught on the line for second place and finished third.
I HAD DONE THE HARD PART,GOT THROUGH FIVE RACES AND MISSED A GOLDEN CHANCE TO GET MY AT LEAST STAKE BACK BY LAYING MY SELECTION FOR A PLACE,SO I WAS RIGHT PISSED OFF BUT ANOTHER  LESSON LEARNED.WATCH THE MARKET CLOSELY JUST BEFORE THE OFF IN CASE THIS SAME SCENARIO WAS TO HAPPEN AGAIN

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