Owl of Minerva
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The Wise Owl - Saturday 5th July 2008The Wise Owl - Saturday 5th July 2008 (All selections: 1-10 points)
14.40 Sandown: Ace of Hearts 1pts E/W @ 20/1 (Coral) + 4pts PLACE @ 5.2 (Betfair)
15.35 Haydock: Pippa Greene 3pts WIN @ 9/1 (Coral)
RUNNING TOTAL: +76.36 Points
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14.40: Ace of Hearts
The betting in the valuable mile handicap at Sandown is dominated by the young, trendy, up and coming sorts. However none of them jump out at me and i prefer the look of old timer Ace of Hearts. Swagger has made a good case for him in his article so i won't say too much. All i will say is that he has a great record at Sandown and in this race (a first and a second) and has run two very nice races so far this season considering he usually takes a while to come to hand. He races off just 93 today and has run many RPRS of 106-108 in the past. Although he is 9 now and maybe not quite the force of old, his two runs this term suggest that much of the ability remains and i think he can still mix it at this level. He loves fast ground and the surface should stay that way. I can't see him running anything other than a good race but he may be vulnerable to one or two improvers, so I will suggest backing him mostly in the place market. If more rain had arrived then i would have been keen on the other 9YO in the field - Unshakable - as he also looks in form, on a fair mark, and has a fine Sandown record. I still wouldn't put people off him at 16/1 but I just think he prefers it with a bit of cut. And don't rule out the other old boy Flipando who will love a strongly run mile on fast ground and is lurking on a dangerous mark.
15.35: Pippa Greene
Mad Rush looks a solid option in this race but he keeps going up the ratings for getting beaten (gone up 22lbs for his last 4 second placings) and so I can't believe he is particularly well handicapped. Admittedly at Ascot the winner got a good front running ride but Mad Rush had two furlongs to get past him if good enough and i just think that if he was that well in then he'd have been able to do it. The 5lb rise will probably be enough to stop him today. The one likeliest to take advantage looks to be Pippa Greene. This horse needs every yard of a mile and a half and has been crying out for softer ground. It has just begun to rain at Haydock and I think i'll be good-soft by the off. On his seasonal reappearance Pippa Greene was way too keen to post, and in the race, but was still not beaten far. He also ran well in last season's Novemeber Handicap on ground too quick. He is down to 95 now and I think that this small drop in the ratings and softer ground can see him go very well today. The main worry is that he will fail to settle as he has done in the past, but hopefully he can get plenty of cover in the big field and relax. If he does then he looks to be the one to beat and 9/1 is too big.
Best of luck, Owl
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