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The Wise Owl - Saturday 7th June 2008 (All Selections: 1-10 Points)
15.15 Epsom: Bond City 1pt WIN @ 22, 4pts PLACE @ 5.4 (Betfair)
16.00 Epsom Doctor Fremantle 2pts E/W @ 9/1 (Paddy Power: 1/4 the odds, 1,2,3,4 Places)
17.20 Epsom: Gift Horse 8pts WIN @ 7/2 (Generally)
RUNNING TOTAL: +114.61 Points
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15.15: Bond City
He hasn't shown a great deal so far this season but 5f at Epsom always seems to bring Bond City to life. He has run over this C&D 5 times and aside from a tame effort on his first try here, his last 4 runs here have seen him achieve RPRs of 104, 108, 108, 104 with respective Topspeed figures of 102, 107, 107, 104. Therefore we know that the horse is perfectly capable of going close here off a mark of 92 today. His three efforts so far this year suggest that he isn't yet ready to win again, but he hasn't always looked ready to run well prior to his sterling C&D efforts before, and I think it is well worth chancing that he can come back to something like his best today. If he does then he is going to be impossible to keep out of the frame and consequently his win and place prices are way too big.
16.00: Doctor Frematle
The Derby is and open and intruiging renewal and I have changed my mind about 100 times in the last few days regarding how best to play the race. I am a big Casual Conquest fan and was really taken by the turn of foot he showed in the Derrinstown. He promises to relish the step up to 1m4f and I think he is the most exciting long term prospect in the field. I fully expect him to be a major force in races like the Irish Derby and The Arc but I just can't bring myself to back him today, despite the fact that he is now a seriously tempting price at 9/2. This is due to the fact that in his trial he was the first one off the bridle and didn't seem to enjoy going around the bend there, having to be constantly niggled along. It was only when they straightened up that he hit full stride and went away from them. The one thing a horse needs to do at Epsom is travel and it is off putting to see a horse earn formbook comments such as "dropped to last halfway" and "niggled along 3f out" in their trial. It may have been just greeness in his trial that caused him to do this and he may be a different horse here. But I am seriously concerned that this test - the undulations, the turning track, the big field and fast pace - might come just a little too soon for him. I could well be wrong and if he handles the track and the occasion then he could be a very impressive winner. But I am going to (only just!) resist the temptation to pay to find out, even if his price is now nearly big enough to warrant taking the risk. New Approach is a fascinating runner but there are stamina doubts and he hasn't had a good perparation. He has the best form though so has to be respected. I can't be having Curtain Call at all, despite the trainers positive vibes. I am convinced Johnny Murtagh has picked the wrong one and I don't fancy King of Rome one bit, who looks like a 50/1 shot to me. Frozen Fire can go well at a big price but it unlikely to be good enough to win.
The Stoute runners all look solid if not (yet) spectacular contenders. The one I like the most is Doctor Fremantle who is an improving horse, handled Chester very well, and will stay every yard of the trip (two full brothers were essentially stayers). Kieren Fallon has been making very positive noises about the horse and he should know what it takes to go well in a Derby. I wouldn't have put the horse up under normal circumstances but Paddy Power's concession of paying 4 places on the race is enough to make all the difference. Getting paid out on 4 places each way on a 16 runner level weights race is most unusual and is particularly appealing from a betting perspective when you also consider that there are effectively four 'no hopers' in the race (over 500 on betfair). This means that in essence we will be paid out on 4 places in a 12 runner race. Dr Fremantle seems the logical choice as he looks rock solid but is still a decent price, and I can't see him being out of the frame.
17.20: Gift Horse
The best bet today looks to be the old boy Gift Horse in the 6f handicap. He looks to have been laid out for this and although the price reflects the fact that most people know this, I still think taking the 7/2 on offer (five non-runners) could pay handsome divdends. This horse was brought to life last season by the first time visor and, after leaving it off so far this year, the headgear returns today. The booking of Jamie Spencer is significant as he also got the leg up at Doncaster last season when he was sporting the first time visor. Gift Horse won this race in 2005 off and runs off just 85 here (won the Stewards Cup off 96, RPR 118, in 2005), having gone though a poor run of form. However all of the signals suggest that he is expected to bounce back today and if he does then I expect him to win easily off this mark. I just hope Spencer doesn't try and be too clever and gives the horse a more positive ride (even though admittedly he needs to be produced late) than he did at Doncaster last season.
Best of luck today, Owl
Owl of Minerva
Edited to add Dr Fremantle as a selection (He was 7/1 with Paddy Power at time of writing and when I looked afterwards he had gone to 9/1 which changed my mind)
Owl of Minerva
Result:
15.15 Epsom: Bond City 1pt WIN @ 22, 4pts PLACE @ 5.4 (Betfair) - LOST: -5pts
16.00 Epsom Doctor Fremantle 2pts E/W @ 9/1 (Paddy Power: 1/4 the odds, 1,2,3,4 Places) - PLACED(4th): +2.5pts
17.20 Epsom: Gift Horse 8pts WIN @ 7/2 (Generally) - LOST: -8pts
