The Wise Owl - Tuesday 17th June 2008 (Royal Ascot Day 1)

Owl of Minerva · The Wise Owl - Tuesday 17th June 2008 (Royal Ascot Day 1)

The Wise Owl - Tuesday 17th June 2008 (All Selections 1-10 Points)

Royal Ascot - Day 1

15.45: Raven's Pass 2pts E/W @ 8/1 (Generally)
16.55: Baddam 5pts E/W @ 16/1 (Betfred) + 5pts PLACE @ 4.2 (Betfair)
17.30: Silver Shoon 4pts WIN @ 5/1 (Generally)

RUNNING TOTAL: +100.11 Points

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15.45: Raven's Pass

Henrythenavigator is obviously going to be tough to beat today but if there is one horse with the talent to do it, then I think it is Raven's Pass. This horse looked like a champion when hacking up over 7f at Sandown last season but since then he hasn't quite, for one reason or another, been seen to best effect. The ground was too soft in the Dewhurst, and last time in the Guineas he was drawn too wide and held up too far off the pace (plus it was more like good ground, despite the good-firm description). However his Craven run (TS 114, RPR 121) was very good and went a long way to allaying any stamina fears over 1m. Today he races over 1m around a bend on what is likely to be genuine good-firm ground so I am sure his stamina will be fine. I also get the feeling that, being such a pacey and explosive horse, he will be at his best when very fresh and in hindsight the Craven run might just have taken too much of an edge of him in the Guineas. If he can show his trademark turn of foot when they swing into the straight then even Henrythenavigator will have a fight on his hands. Falco is respected as he could be anything but I'm not overly convinced about the French Guineas form. Twice Over is also a threat but the ground may be too quick for him here (edged right under pressure on good-firm in the Dante, which was his first time on ground that quick) and he may be vulnerable to speedier types here. The rest look held on form. The make up of the race (a hot favourite, 9 runners and a few no hopers) mean it is sensible to take advantage of the favourable terms and back Raven's Pass each way at 8/1. Maybe the favourite will be too good but I think that an on-form Raven's Pass is sure to go close, and even surer to make the first three.

16.55: Baddam

The best value bet of the day (maybe even the season!) however has to be Baddam in the Ascot Stakes. This horse absolutely hacked up in a strong renewal of this race 2 years ago off a mark of 87, went on to mix it with the best in Group races, and yet runs today off just a 4lb higher mark of 91. This is because he seems to have somwhat lost his way since the middle of last season and his handicap mark has tumbled. However the signs are there that the horse is ready to return to the same kind of form that he's been in at the two previous Royal Ascot meetings. In 2006 he won both this race and the Queen Alexandra, and in 2007 he came a decent 7th in the Gold Cup before running second 2 days later in the Queen Alexandra again. Furthermore even when he appears to be out of sorts he always runs well when he returns to Ascot, and the only times he has been slightly below par here is when they have crawled; thus meaning an inadequate test of stamina for this out and out stayer.

Last time out at Haydock many will think Baddam was below par, beaten 8 lengths in a moderate race over 2m. However, I simply don't see it this way and thought he ran as well as could be expected. 2m on good-firm, on a flat track, with a moderate pace, was never going to see him in a good light. This horse needs 2m4f+ and a strong gallop to be seen at his best and it is only very rarely (i.e: at Royal Ascot) that he will get this, and consequently it will often seem as though he is out of sorts when he isn't. At Haydock he stayed on really well in the final 2 furlongs after getting badly outpaced and showed me that he is ready to strike again in a race like today's. Baddam is perfectly capable of running an RPR of 105-110 today and if he does then he will probably win. It should also be noted that the booking of Johnny Murtagh is a big plus. The only way i can see him failing to make the frame is if he is held up off a slow pace, but hopefully this won't be an issue with 20 runners and a smark jockey. Despite his 16/1 price, I am convinced he is the one to beat and should be backed accordingly.

17.30: Silver Shoon

In the Windsor Castle there is no need to say much about the chances of Silver Shoon, other than the fact that she probably doesn't need to run much better than she already has to take this. An RPR of about 100 is usually enough to win this race and SIlver Shoon has already run RPR 98, which is far higher than anything in the race. She may be a maiden but her form lines with Cuis Ghaire and Heart Shaped are very strong. She is bred for pure speed (nearly all of her numerous half siblings were sprinters) and is proven on both a fast surface and a stiff track. Quite simply, just normal improvement from her last run should make her very hard to beat here. With 25 rivals there are obviously threats but none have shown anything like as much as Silver Shoon hitherto, and if any of them were that good then they would surely have been aimed at a better race than this Listed contest at Royal Ascot.

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Elsehwhere, the Queen Anne looks far too tight to call. The one that can be guaranteed to run well is Cesare, and if he gets a strong pace then he may be a good place bet. Finsceal Beo can also go well. In the Kings Stand, Fleeting Spirit probably only needs to replicate her phenomenal run last time to take this. However her price is short enough. Dandy Man is a frustrating horse but 12/1 looks too big for a horse of his talent with his optimum conditions and I wouldn't put anyone off him at that price. Finally the Coventry is too tough to be massively confident about anything but the Channon horse Orizaba sets a very high standard. He sluiced up on debut in quick time, and the form has worked out very well. He is the one to beat and 7/2 is perfectly fair.

Have a great day, Owl

Owl of Minerva

Results:

15.45: Raven's Pass 2pts E/W @ 8/1 (Generally) - PLACED: +2pts
16.55: Baddam 5pts E/W @ 16/1 (Betfred) + 5pts PLACE @ 4.2 (Betfair) - LOST: -15pts