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The Wise Owl - Wednesday 18th June 2008 (Royal Ascot Day 2)
The Wise Owl - Wednesday 18th June 2008 (All selections: 1-10 Points)
Royal Ascot - Day 2
15.45: Red Rock Canyon 2pts PLACE @ 20.0 (Betfair)
16.20: Flipando 4pts PLACE @ 6.0 (Betfair), Extraterrestrial 1pt E/W @ 16/1 (Paddy Power: 1,2,3,4,5 Places)
RUNNING TOTAL: +83.11 Points
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15.45: Red Rock Canyon
Many people will completely dismiss the chances of Red Rock Canyon running well today as he is seen as solely a pacemaker for Duke of Marmalade. However, he is a good and improving horse in his own right and could sneak into the frame at rewarding odds today. Many will be surprised to hear that only 2 horses in today's field - Literato (who looks out of sorts) and DoM (who is 13/8 ) - have achieved higher RPRs over 10f than the selection. RRC ran to RPR 118 in last years Irish Champion Stakes behind Dylan Thomas and DoM. A replication of that effort would most likely see him challenging strongly for the places today. Can we really be sure that today's rivals, with their respective doubts, could have bettered this effort? Ask and Sixties Icon are unproven at 10f at this level and would surely prefer 12f. Pipedreamer, Phoenix Tower and Pressing are good horses but still have to improve on what they've shown so far. RRC has the profile of an improver - his last 3 runs have yielded his 3 best RPRs - and it could finally be that the penny has dropped. His trainer has always said that he works like a Group 1 horse at home and if he is finally starting to translate that to the track, then he is deserving of more respect than his 100/1 price would suggest. The Racing Post reported that he looked in need of his fair reappearance run behind Finsceal Beo and DoM, and if he has come on for it then he could reproduce something akin to his Irish Champion Stakes performance. There is also the chance that he will get an easy lead and it wouldn't suprise me if he sticks on well - probably after being headed by his stablemate - for a place. He's an unlikely winner but at nearly 20/1 to make the top 3 in a weak looking 10f Group 1, he looks to be worth chancing.
16.20: Flipando
Bankable obviously has a massive chance in the Hunt Cup but I think there is more value to be found in looking for a bigger priced horse to place. The likes of Well Come, Lang Shining and Docofthebay have good chances but their prices are about right. The one i like is Flipando. He is a proven C&D performer as he ran second in this race last year to a handicap snip, yet he returns this year off a 4lb lower mark. He looks to have been laid out for the race and ran a most encouraging trial last time when staying on well over an inadequate 7f in a good race at Doncaster. The return to 1m will suit and he'll love the prevailing good-firm/firm ground. It is also a positive that he is drawn (20) near to the fancied horses (Well Come, Lang Shining, Bankable) and an obvious pace setter in Oceana Gold (26). A final plus is the booking of Jamie Spencer who - love him or loathe him - does well in these huge fields and his quiet style is good for a place bet as he can bring the selection late and fast past beaten and tired rivals. Flipando is 7 now and it is hard to see him winning, but I can't see him running anything other than a big race and expect him to be challenging for the places.
There was a suggestion yesterday that low numbers may be favoured on the straight track as a lot of the winners seemed to burst up that part of the track. I'm not convinced there is a bias but it makes sense to also back something low anyway. Docofthebay is tempting but I don't generally like horses in first time headgear, and the safer bet would appear to be Extraterrestrial. He looks like a transformed performer since joining Richard Fahey and his eyecatching effort at Chester last time suggests that the handicapper hasn't got him yet. At 16/1, a small each way bet with Paddy Power's 5 places seems a good idea.
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Elsewhere, the Jersey Stakes in an open affair but Dream Eater ought to benefit from the drop to 7f after his fine effort in the Guineas. Paco Boy can also go well with his optimum conditions but may struggle with his penalty. Red Alert Day is overpriced at 20/1+ based on his good effort behind Calming Influence last time.
If she can reproduce her sterling C&D handicap win off 105 from two starts back, I think Baharah will take the beating in the Windsor Forest. That form was franked by all 6 horses that finished behind her that day and she looks the one to beat here if running to that level again. She was given too much to do last time at Epsom and, granted a strong pace, can prove that all wrong today. At 6/1 she may be worth chancing.
In terms of the last two races, I have no idea!
All the best, Owl
Owl of Minerva
Results:
15.45: Red Rock Canyon 2pts PLACE @ 20.0 (Betfair) - LOST: -2pts
16.20: Flipando 4pts PLACE @ 6.0 (Betfair), Extraterrestrial 1pt E/W @ 16/1 (Paddy Power: 1,2,3,4,5 Places) - LOST/LOST: -6pts
