Ways to Improve Punting Success

RightJudgeIam · Ways to Improve Punting Success

Following 'Punting for a Living' yesterday, I thought we could start an 'improve your punting skills' thread to see what members come up with.

A practice I would recommend to anyone wanting to improve their punting is to generate shortlists for any race you study whether you intend to bet or not.

Record your shortlist for every race studied and estimate what percentage chance you think there is that the winner of the race is actually on the list. How you generate your shortlist is a whole other matter.

Continue with this practice long enough (a large enough sample to be statistically significant is required) and you will find out, firstly, how often you shortlist the winner as a percentage of all races studied and, secondly, how accurately you estimated the % chance of having the winner on it.

That is to say, for example, you shortlisted the winner in 80% of races but on average gave an estimate of 90% likelihood of having the winner then you could use this information in your betting i.e

on average you would have an 80% chance of having the winner shortlisted; now allot each shortlisted runner a % chance such that the total comes to 80% and convert those %ages to odds. Now you can compare your generated odds with those available to bet.

Now, you can see how important it is to get really good at shortlisting.

Anyway, hope some of you at least find this interesting if not useful.

Now, it's over to you...

alansouthcoast

Here are a few rules i try and follow.

Set a sum to lose, either as a bank or at the races and dont go over it.

Follow your instincts regardless of the price. You will soon see how good your instincts are.

Study form and dont blindly back the good thing tipped by the paper, its almost certain this will reduce the value you are getting. many punters blindly back the daily tips.

Back against the crowd as that is where you will find value. Alan Potts book called Against the Crowd has some good suggestions.

Read all you can, time permitting, the more you understand the game the better you will become

Dont let others put you off, Young Mick was a prime example last year. I had backed him since his first win at Wolverhampton and the papers talked me out of backing him at 33/1 at Royal Ascot.

Relax and enjoy it, i am really serious about this. If it reaches the stage you are constantly uptight you will make poor choices, clouded by monetery values......

Dont chase losses..... something i still do from time to time but im not as bad as i was.

GP

Very well put Alan, agree totally

Rochesterlad

I would say watch as much racing as possible.

Never let the heart rule the head!!

Ive a big soft spot for several horses and have a bad habit of backing them whether their in form or not!!!

alansouthcoast

Parsons Legacy

My one piece of advice would simply be to back winners and not losers, that way you are guaranteed punting success.

Regards

PL

qzy

Never bet when you NEED to win. On any day in the bookies you will see someone bet his last £10 when he needs £20....

RightJudgeIam

Further thoughts on shortlisting.

One of the questions I am often asked is: how do you chose which races to bet in?

I have always struggled to answer that one really and it occurs to me that answer might be something like:

races with few names on the shortlist and a high estimated chance that the winner is on the list, which I guess explains why I don't bet in nurseries, selling handicaps and the like.

Following the method given above for an extended period will help you decide which races to investiate for a bet.

glennie1970

I would add to the list;

Always plan in advance what you are going to back and stick to it

Try to avoid spur of the moment bets particularly in the bookies

If you bet on football never ever back your own team..if they lose you will be doubly disappointed.

david-uk

I actually backed 2 x 25/1 winners last saturday on the spur of moment.

I think instinct comes into gambling quite a lot, there are many times when you just know the FAV wont win. Also dont believe the Hype, hyped horses dont win very often.

jennywales

However tempting - don't back in every race, or even every day. (I make an exception for on-course, in which case it is perfectly reasonable to have a bit on every race; but even then, think about which races you WOULD swerve if you weren't there and don't go beyond your minimum bet in those races.)

Don't chase your losses.

Go racing!

If you are tempted by being in the bookies, don't go in. I think I go to my local bookies' once a year or thereabouts! The last time I went in, I left without putting a bet on!

Watch racing - as much as you can. If you don't have the satellite services, use the RP video form. If you can afford the RUK/ATR services then get them.

I am as guilty as the next person of following horses because I like them, as well as because I think they are going to win (Arctic Times being a prime example this season just gone). However, if you are fond of a horse, don't leave him/her out of a very small bet each time they run - it is that one time it will win!!!

Read and learn as much as possible, but in the end, make your own judgements. Don't depend on others - advice is fine, following tips blindly isn't.

Ask yourself from time to time - am I enjoying this? If not, stop, at least for a while. If your aim is simply to make money, then the previous doesn't apply, obviously. Although I have to say that if you are aiming to become professional and you actually DON'T enjoy the work and the pressure, then it is probably not for you!

RightJudgeIam

I think I should have entitled this thread: Methods to improve...

I believe in method and as we were talking about punting for a living I was trying to find out if any members had any useful methods for improving.

The general 'don't do this' and 'I always do the other' stuff is always useful but that wasn't what I was after finding out.

So, anyone got any ideas for steps that people can take to actually improve?

kickingkyle

Id say that recording your bets is a huge step to becoming more disciplined. Helped me out a bit anyway.

jennywales

Judge, I suspect that I am a much more "instinctive" punter than you (that's a polite way of saying I don't know nearly as much as you do about it!)

One thing I have found that has helped me this season, which is my first full season using Betfair, is making rules about how to decide which races to put money on.

As people know, I am almost exclusively an NH punter. I don't agree with Tom Segal that it is impossible to make money on NH (as I understand what he said). But you have to be VERY selective about which races you back horses in. It's very simplistic, I know, but the method I use for deciding which race will carry my (tiny) money is

(a) How many runners? I am very fond of place only bets and any handicap with 16 or more goes on the shortlist (and any race with less than 8 runners goes OFF the list!)

(b) The handicap. I tend to eliminate non-handicap races almost automatically, although I will make an exception for some Beginner's Chases

(c) Only first class bumper races (I find the other sort an absolute minefield!)

(d) Eliminate Maiden hurdles!

After that, it's a matter of studying the individual horses.

This may seem very unsophisticated, but it has helped me this season-which means either that I am a mug punter, or alternatively that I know my limitations!

RightJudgeIam

Great reply Jenny and I would say to anyone who has a set of rules like this that the next step is to actually record and later analuse what actually happened i.e not just whether you won or lost money on a bet but all the other useful bits of information.

Self analysis is key to improvement. For example at one time I was betting heavy in 3 yo maidens and doing well I thought (reasonable strike rate etc). When I worked out the P/L after about 3 months I realised that the profit on turnover was around 3% after commission. Just wasn't worth it and I don't bet them any more.

Record, analyse and improve

alansouthcoast

RJI...... I think some of the general tips, although obvious to some, are essential. Im thinking of " never chase losses " and " never bet more than you can afford "

As for race selections, i was a very suprised to see Dave Nevisson seems to back on almost every race at the meeting he is at. Personally i think the form works out better at the Major tracks and sticking to a set distance and type, such as mile handicaps above a set class should pay dividends.

I am going to save the link for this thread and yesterdays in the " Popular threads "

Hampton

Agree with all the points made so far.

I like to add:

Study the form. Don't look at a race & think 'so & so is in it & he should win'.

Look at the form & weigh it up. You may find some nice price winners that way.

A must is take note of the going. It's one of the biggest factors in racing. Right now picking horses isn't too hard as the going is consitant everywhere. It's when it changes that you have to be careful.

Look for stables in form. If a yard is in good form then everything from that stable seems to run well.

Read the RP, you will learn a lot. Do read Spotlight but don't let it rule you!

Avoid Maiden races on the flat, unless you think/know something looks worth backing.

geordie_racer

I think there is one simple answer....which is read, watch, learn

As will almost all things, the more you know thebetter you do; my record on the flat is terrible because i don't get into the stats/form/breeding as I should; i go on gut feeling, instict, small amounts of info

If you are trying to make mony out of punting then i would say swot up a lot, choose your races carefully, and shortlist / rule out horses. then have a "poibts" system and a bank

If your bank is £50 or £50000 it dosent mater; you work out what value you give a "point" and your confidence should be reflected in the points invested.

Also, it ofeten now pays to abck "fancied outsiders" a small win and a bigger place only bet; the exchanges allow this and it is often much better value than an eachway flutter

RightJudgeIam

All very interesting.

The point I'm trying to get across, and hopefully to stimulate you to think about, is how to take what you do currently (and the results that that generates) and find ways to improve.

Recording as much information about races bet in (or not bet in) and your thoughts about the race (before it is run) and comparing that with the outcome of the race can actually give great insight. Do this for a long enough period and you will learn a great deal (but only if you go back and think aboutwhat actually happened).

Old school punters talk about there being a 'pattern' to the results of horse races (I'm not talking about The Pattern i.e Group races). When you are trying to predict the outcome of races, you are in fact creating a 'mental model' of the pattern. When your model matches closely your results will be good. One of the ways to improve is to able to change your model in line with the changing pattern and therefore keep close to it.

This may be an esoteric concept for some but if you are serious about improving your success in betting on horses you need to know how closely your model matches. This is why self-analysis is so important.

I really hope some of you will at least think about this and gain some long term benefit.

alansouthcoast

Jenny..... I dont quite agree with staying out of the bookies, sure there are more proiftable places to find value, and if you stay in there betting all day you will end up skint ( been there got the whole wardrobe ! )
However, they can be a great source of information, there are one or two big punters in my bookies ( 3 figures ) I always chat to these guys when they come in as they all seem to do well. Another guy who comes in is a local builder who has horses and gets some great info.
Its all about staying disciplined while in the shop. Something else you can do is learn what actually makes a big gamble. It will take more cash to shift a horse from 6/4 to evens at a big meeting than from 33/1 to 10/1 at a wet Wolverhampton.

cre8flow

to me you have to study why horses win...review races and review charts...study everything there is about a race about horses

another thing is to find any negative betting patterns

then you have to change those patterns...so you practice making better bets

you can do this by visualization

certain bets are required in certain situations and other bets are required in other situations

visualize these situations and visualize making and winning good bets

RightJudgeIam

I have posted a bet today for Mandingo Chief.

My 'model' is telling me that this horse has an outstanding chance and, because I have developed confidence in the model, I am prepared to have a large wager precisely because I know, through much experience, that if my model is correct the horse will win well and that there is a more than fair chance that it is in fact correct in this instance.

In this case, an improving horse under ideal conditions with a clear form edge is to be ridden by a senior pro jockey instead of the stable apprentice who has faied to win on it three times. I imagine the trainer has told Fitzgerald to 'go out and bloody well win' or something like that!

If I'm right it will.

RightJudgeIam

John

I was waiting for you to contribute

hope you are well

NoDough

I have no internet or phone accounts and very rareley go to a betting shop, however over the last year I went to the racecourse 23 times and I always bet on every race £10-20, following a few lucky bets I was well in and thought I would start having 3 figure wagers on what I thought were "good things" when I was on course, results for 4 months:

1. 2-1 winner
2. 2-5 winner
3. loser (4/6)
4. 8/11 winner
5. loser (9/2)
6. loser (5/2)
7 6-4 winner

Stake = £800 returns £1112 approx

All bets on "group" NH races

The other side of the coin, my wife at Sandown on Saturday selected and backed 9/1 winner, 13/2 winner and 5/4 winner, £5 win on each !

I would just like to add that I believe it is extremely difficult to make gambling pay and 99.999999999% of us will need to have a job and treat gambling as an enjoyable hobby

cre8flow

Rick i wanted to wait and think about my response because i am not yet quite a pro

Some people may laugh but visualization has helped me make some very very nice scores.

I believe that the majority of people who succeed in whatever they do use some form of visualization-and i also believe that the majority of people who fail use visualization as well

i think that in order to win it takes a lot of self study, and knowledge of handicapping as well

to me the most important thing is to REALLY believe that you can win

RightJudgeIam

Totally agree with the self study as I have said several times already..

without this you are walking around in the dark with only a penlight which makes it very difficult to find where you are trying to get to.

The visualisation issue is very similar to the 'significance' stuff I always talk about... and I visualised today this trainer saying to the jock 'Mick, you are on the best horse son.. go out and show it'. I thought this would be significant. Nice score if I'm right.

Sky_Of_Darkness

RightJudgeIam

Sky I fully expect this to win and will be disappointed if it doesn't... not because of the money though, but because my brain is telling me in capital letters 'this is 20lb clear'. That's my model working.

NoDough

Visualisation an assistance in selecting winners ? yep I did laugh out loud

What next, voodoo for the scoop 6 tomorrow !

Sky_Of_Darkness

NoDough

Sky - am I ? Please explain

cre8flow

well number 1-you should visualize how the race is going to be run...or could be run

number 2 visualization is a powerful tool that can interact with both the subconscious and the conscious

i made some incredible basketball shots and futball shots in games that i never could have made in practice-i know that i visualized or dreamed about making those shots in my spare time

i am not the only person who believes in visualization...all i know is that it has worked for me and so i wanted to mention it to others...hopefully somebody will try it and have the results that i have had

david-uk

Thats a bit deep Cre8flow.

cre8flow

well if i was a body of water i would probably be atleast one ocean

NoDough

cre8flow - I agree that visualisation can with some people help them to improve a skill / procedure etc, however were you suggesting in an earlier post that you were visualising a horse winning ?

cre8flow

the thing is i am always looking outside of the game of horse racing for ideas which i can use to better my craft...

cre8flow

last year there was a college basketball game-it was a semi fimal game-all the experts hyped LSU to win the game

i told my friends that UCLA was the play...one guy didnt know me too well and laughed saying this and that
i said

i can SEE LSU throwing up a bunch of bricks early feeling the pressure of the game and UCLA getting up early and holding on for the victory

i saw it before it happened

NoDough

Sky - I did not miss the point

lochsong

cre8flow

correct lochsong-i had a fundamental reason as to why it would happen-but still you have to stretch beyond the hype...to me these are the best type of bets

JDFUNKY

Visualisation - an example.....this years Champion Hurdle:

It was obvious that Detroit City, Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace were going to force the pace from the off, and the race itself would be "perfect" for hold up horses with a turn of foot.

Some people "visualised" Detroit City smashing the opposition.

Some people "visualised" Iktitaf/Straw Bear coming through and beating them with their speed (yep, that was me!!)

At least a couple of people visualised Sublimity loving the way the race was going to pan out - fair play to them, it came off!

In the above scenario you "knew" what was going to happen, it was then thinking how that set of circumstances would then apply to the line up of horses and how each would perform given those circumstances. Sometimes you know where the pace of the race is, sometimes you know how a particular track will suit (or not) a horse - this can go on to going, jockey, distance, etc, etc. There are so many variables, that knowing one or 2 of them can help you understand how a race will pan out - visualisation!

That's my take on it anyway!

JDF

NoDough

Visualisation - visualise this if you will

There are 8 runners in the race, 8 people study form and work out their logic for the race and then visualise the outcome of the race, each visualises a different winner

Question - how many of the 8 people visualised the winner ?

lochsong

Frankly mate I'm stumped - you gonna tell us or just leave us hanging?

What do you folks think about backing more than one horse in a race?

I've always been torn between the idea that it improves my chances of winning and the fact that whatever the outcome I'm giving the bookies my money. And I've done it again in the 2KG. I think it might be worthwhile at big odds antepost. I will also do it in races like the GN.

And there are the big sprint handicaps where the field is spread right across the track and they often split into two groups one on either rail - some would say that its worth identifying a horse drawn high and a horse drawn low.

Any thoughts?

LS

Owl of Minerva

Just two quick thoughts:

Be careful about backing so called 'unlucky' horses - they are 1) often underpriced next time and 2) not even unlucky - some horses always find trouble due to lack of tactical pace etc. (Naayir has cost me a bomb in my time!!)

Be careful of horses who win weak races easily (although who am i to say that after backing Diamond Tycoon in the 2000!) - usually better to back a horse who has battled to win a good cometitive race than one who has trotted up in a weak one (a horse wins a 25 runner handicap and goes up 5lb, compared to a horse that wins a 4 runner handicap on the bridle and goes up 10lb - invariably the one to trust is the former)

Owl

daylami86

My Methods vary but i am strictly a form man

1)Target a figure that you have maxium to bet

2) study form, study trainer stats & study track bias (flat more often)

3) I like to bet on horses that have "smooth headway" in the form (just one of my things that i do) as i think it his important for a horse to travel.

thats a quick recap but i may start to study speed figures as i do think especially on the flat that these are beneficial

cheers

kickingkyle

Iv tried to work out the percentages so here goes:

2.10 newmarket
60% Alqmar
40% Thunder storm cat

5.10 newmarket
Boscobel 50%
Ten a penny 30%
Ocerule 20%

2.30 goodwood
100% Fromsong

3.05 goodwood
60% river thames
25% smokin beau
15% mujood

cre8flow

read this staement in a golf book but think its the key to betting on anything

if trust is the key to performance,then honesty is the doorway to trust

lochsong

three out

I have enjoyed reading this thread which for some reason I missed first time around.

The trick to punting for me is to find an angle and stick with it - learn it - develop it - and keep refining it. I compile my own predictive speed rating figures. I have been doing this for nearly five years and the mechanics of my calculations have improved over the years - indeed I review the mechanics every three months (at least I try to) and tweak the calcultions if the analysis tells me to (the best example of this is around a year ago I analysed why I missed out on a number of obvious winners in hindsight - the reason was their previous performances had been as front runners and I adjusted my calculation to award higher points to those horses leading from a long way out to win). This method is rigid and formulaic and allows no room for my heart to play a part. This may sound boring but it works for me. The archive on the articles section has columns which shows a 20+ pt profit to level stakes. The system consistently pays a profit but as many will agree anything like this is about the long game. Once I have crunched the numbers for a chosen race I then bet according to the profile of the top - if for example a horse is several points clear of the next then a max bet is done. If there is a clutch of horses at the top or within a couple of points I will bet the big odds and try and go each way - often splitting stakes. This is a recent innovation for me - splitting stakes is proving a really good mechanism for turning profits in a race.

The summary for me is to pick a method that is interesting to you and has mileage and then keep plugging away. It took me a while to be satisfied with my speed figures but it is worth it when it helps you make a little money.

alansouthcoast

Three.... A well thought out post, good luck with your system. From what i have read most professionals with systems are forever tweaking them as knowledge grows, or should i say insight.

RightJudgeIam

Ok I thought it was about time I added something to this thread and in particular some 'method' for the analysis of Flat handicaps.

I am a strong believer in the use of ratings to analyse handicap races. You could use any set of ratings you like but they must be proven (been around long enough to have a track record), accurate (ie must model performances well) and reliable (do not vary). Personally, I use RPR because they are freely available and meet the criteria but you could easily use Raceform, Timeform or some such. I would not recommend the use of Speed ratings in this method but they can be a useful addition.

My first step in analysing any handicap (I don't do 3yo only, nurseries, fillies only, maiden, claiming or selling handicaps) is to write down the BHB mark (official rating) and the last 3 to 5 RPRs achieved in handicaps for each runner. Then deduct the BHB mark from the highest RPR achieved so that you end up with something like this for each runner:

Muffin the Mule BHB: 80 RPRs: 81 89 86 +9

Now your shortlist will consist of those with a rating of +7 or higher.

Interestingly, it also transpires that those with ratings of +3 or lower win very rarely and I do often lay such horses. If you are interested in this I would suggest you have a look at these horses that ran recently:

Tibouchina
Hypoteneuse
Windjammer
Torrens
Emperors Well

Hope this is of interest to some board members

KautoFleetwood

Absolutely superb thread, and one which has helped me a lot.

My less erudite observations are:-

1. Reading, and studying, The Racing Post on a daily basis is essential. Not so much for the tips, especially where the overrated Pricewise is concerned, but for the invaluable snippets of information leading up to races, for the extensive reviews of races run the previous day and the observations of trainers about their own horses. It is an expensive newspaper to buy on a daily basis but if you are serious about your betting then it is an essential expense.

2. Don't chase losses - something I still do all too often but am trying to eradicate.

3. I do study form, albeit in a less sophisticated way than apparently some do on here, but I'm convinced that instinct is a vital component of betting. I've found winners recently that didn't jump out at me when studying the Racing Post but did so in the build up to the race.

4. I never become overly beguiled by purported stall bias in flat races. I'm not saying it is cobblers because at some venues it quite obviously is a factor but I do think that sometimes the expert pundits try to justify their existence by making the sport more esoteric than is necessary.

5. NEVER back so called `unlucky' horses. There is no such thing. They fail to win because they aren't good enough.

6. I too have a tendency to back horses I like, or trainers I admire, for the sake of it. Unless you are `certain' of a win, bet small or perhaps in an each way lucky 15.

7. I have an inherent distate for laying horses and am also not a big fan of Betfair but if you must have an interest in a race and it is a trappy affair then perhaps laying is the more profitable approach particularly when talking horses and unlucky camels are running.

8. Watch as much racing as possible.

9. Accept that you will never know everything about the sport and that you can always learn something new.

10. Set a limit on losses.

11. Keep a record of profit / loss and analyse both success and failure.

12. Don't be obsessed with so called value bets. Big prices often indicate poor expectation of profit.

13. Avoid each way bets. they are a rip off unless the price is huge and the horse manages a place. And why is it that nearly all successful each way bets result in a win anyway rather than a compensatory place?

14. Enjoy it for the sport that it is and accept that for 99% of us it won't be profitable in the long term.

YAIYAM

"12. Don't be obsessed with so called value bets. Big prices often indicate poor expectation of profit."

Value bets & big prices are 2 totally different things so this number 12. is not really correct or a good method to follow.

glennie1970

I do take objection with your point

5. NEVER back so called `unlucky' horses. There is no such thing. They fail to win because they aren't good enough.

Currently I work from home which means that I have the chance to watch a fair chunk of all the racing broadcast on a daily,much more that the average person and being a subscriber to Racing UK and access to ATR I watch a lot.

My notebook includes horses which to all intents and purposes were unlucky in their last run and as a consequence are a good bit better than the bare form i.e they finished 6th but without trouble they would have been placed or better.

Mansfield Toon

KautoFleetwood

YAIYAM

I would add a few more points to Glennie70

4. The Draw at some courses is crucial Lingfield(grass) sprints High Draw, Newbury sprints high draw, Chester upto 7f Low draw etc etc etc

5. As Glennie70 says

6. If you are trying to improve your punting then mentioning Lucky 15's is not the way to go

7. Even though you may not like Betfair prices are generally larger even with the commision especially on Place betting so Laying does not really have to come into it

10. Sounds like you are expecting to lose & cannot see how this is improving your punting

13. E/W bets now should be a thing of the past to most punters WIN & PLACE bets are the future wether they are placed on Betfair or with a bookies

14. As 10.

Count Dracula

WINNING FORM IS THE BEST FORM TO INVESTIGATE TO FIND WINNERS IN ANY TYPE OF RACE

I ALWAYS HAVE A GANDER AT HOW WELL BACKED A HORSE WAS IN ITS PREVIOUS RACE,IVE FOUND OUT OVER THE YEARS ITS A GOOD GUIDE TO THE HORSES POTENTIAL FOR FUTURE RACES
ESPECIALLY NEWCOMERS TO THE TRACK ALSO IN DODGEY CIRCUMSTANCES WHEN THE HORSE IS BACK ON A WINNING MARK IN THE HANDICAP

MORE FROM CASTLE DRACULA LATER
TIME FOR SOME SLEEP

COUNT

kickingkyle

I beg to differ on the lucky 15s

beathollow92

For me, everything revolves around a pace chart, and then I take it from there.

RightJudgeIam

again I ask board members to post methods or steps that people can take to improve from where they are now with their punting.

I would say:

if you are not currently keeping a notebook of comments on the races you watch, then do so

if you are not currently recording all your bets then start with your next bet and continue

if you are not analysing your betting then start thinking about what actually happened in your betting sequence - starting with your staking

if you don't look at ratings for each runner in a race then start

start making shortlists by eliminating the runners considered very unlikely to win and estimate the chance of the winner being on your shortlist

overall, I repeat, record everything you can about both your race analysis and betting pattern ...this will feed back later when you have a large enough sample...

record, analyse, improve

Mansfield Toon

Gamble__Landed

Mansfield Toon

PMSL

Who would do that?!!!

falbrav4ever

Very interesting thread and not one that I've seen before.

I've only see one reference to "value" betting - apart from the mention of Tom Segal, which doesn't count because he doesn't write a value betting column. That isn't to knock him as a tipster - just an indisputable reference to the fact that he will tip anything (regardless of price or status in the market) - including both the joint favourites in one race.

Love him or loathe him he does not adhere to the principles of value tipping.

I also think that that the old cliche - value is the most expensive word in racing - is ill-considered and, in fact, total rubbish.

Whilst I am naturally going to stick up for value betting, I do not suggest that blindly backing 25-1 shots is the way to profit.

However, I would far rather back 20 consecutive 25-1 shots that run like 25-1 shots and then back a 25-1 winner than back three 11/4 shots that get beaten in photographs followed by an 11/4 winner.

I will give you a very simple rule about value - a horse beiing upped in grade after winning is nearly always underpriced. A horse that hasn't won for ages taking a considerable drop in class is nearly always overpriced.

I don't just mean 25-1 shots either.

My best example of a value bet is an odds-on shot...

Self Defense (100 + rated on the flat) was 4th in the Champion Hurdle as a novice. He then started the next season as a novice because he hadn't won a race over timber. He duly won a Cheltenham novice before running three disappointing races. In need of a confidence boost and still with novice status he ran in a Newbury Novice under a penalty against a couple of horses with decidedly modest hurdling form and several recruits from the flat - none of which was rated any higher than 60 on the level.

Chance of winning 1/10

SP 8/11

VALUE!

I still prefer to play the high odds and am willing to accept the low strike rate that goes with this - if their chance was obvios to all and sundry they would hardly be 25/1 shots. However, I'm trying to bring in high conviction betting at the right price into my armoury and had a massive bet on Polar Force at average odds of a little under 9/2 on Saturday night.

However, my main game will remain the 14/1 + shots and i don't care if they do finish last and don't consider this to be any more indicative of failure than finishing second. A miss is as good a mile and you don't get paid for being "unlucky".

"I'm having a run of bad luck - they're all going close without winning - but I'll soon be on a roll again" is the type of sentiment that keeps the bookies in profits.

I'm desperately trying to eradicate the "wally" bets, the "this should be entertaining" bets and the dreaded "last chance to win my money back" bets.

If I can do this and add the "high conviction betting at the right price" methodology to my trusty value stance, I'm sure that I can improve big time.

Falbrav

david-uk

I dont think you are one to follow on this board as your overall success rate is below average.

falbrav4ever

David,

I think you might have slightly missed the point of the thread.

I don't think this is the place to cast any aspersions on anybody's technique or record because it's not a competition thread entitled "I am the best punter on this forum and here's why". I believe it was always the intention that this should serve as some form of brainstorming session and I'm personally interested in a number of the ideas that have been put forward.

The purpose of my own contribution was merely intended to state my belief that it is usually advisable to stick to the principles that work for you, although it is never going to be possible to make improvements without recognising your faults and opening your mind to different ideas.

The other thought that I would add is that I think it is very wrong to be a level stakes punter and it constitutes another flaw in a betting technique to size a bet in accordance with the price available - I'm pretty sure that these are points that you agree with.

One should always bet small in hope and big in conviction regardless of the odds available.

If you're convinced a 16-1 shot is going to win, it should be a maximum win bet not a small each way punt. Conversely, if you are only "fairly sure" that an odds-on favourite is likely to triumph it should be backed to small stakes if at all.

Falbrav

YAIYAM

"The other thought that I would add is that I think it is very wrong to be a level stakes punter and it constitutes another flaw in a betting technique to size a bet in accordance with the price available - I'm pretty sure that these are points that you agree with."

Falbrav
I agree with this in a way but you should always have a maximum thats why working to a points system is always a good thing as generally most people work to 1-10 points now wether that 10 points is £10 or £1000 it is a flaw in any punter to go above that maximum(10 points) because if you doubled that max for any perticular bet and it lost you could effectively wipe out 50%+ of any profit you may have incurred on the smaller points bets

Mansfield Toon

I still think that whenever this gets discussed on this board, the usual suspects put their head above the parapet adopting a 'I'm houlier than thou' stance.

It seems like most of us are being encouraged to follow certain peoples ways and methods of finding winners. I dont record, I dont analyse, yet I still win money.

Perhaps instead of trying to convert everyone to their system, posters could learn and use the ideas of others?

I know I dont have the time, desire, or drive to sift through hours and hours of form etc to find a winner in a 16 runner handicap, when I could see from my own eyes the previous week that Turbo Linn was an absolute machine, and bet accordingly the next time she ran. I think Sir Bond adopts a very simialr strategy, or having big bets once or twice a week.

I dont mind joining a debate on this topic, but I cant stand the 'my way is better than yours' stance!

Ferretio

As spmeone who is quite new to this game I'd say that in my experience Jenny has made an important point about not betting on every single race (is that what you call chasing or is that only when you're losing?)
I made that mistake at the beginning and it got a little silly.
Now I pick and choose a lot more.

Mansfield Toon

falbrav4ever

Billy

reading thou the forum i see heaps of people gambling every day sometimes on every race
maybe theres a addiction there so perhaps following the judges advice may help people to improve there betting
especially when they see how much they losing
billy

Mansfield Toon

beathollow92

I think the word "value" has been hijacked.

Now people say, "So what if Im on a long losing run, Im looking for value. One win at those odds will put me in front."

A 51% strike rate backing Even money shots would put you in front, but there seems to be a stigma towards that.

Or, "Authorized/short priced good thing will win but is is too short, Im looking for each way value" (When a 20/1 shot placed at 1/5 odds pays 6/4).

I am not saying this happens all the time, but some people do use the word to try and be clever, mainly at big odds.

"Value" is something that cannot be really defined, and for each punter will be different.

Some will find 1/2 shots that are great "value" and bet accordingly. Others would never think an odds on shot could be value.

Horses run every day which in your opinion will be too short/too big in price, whether they are 1/5 or 50/1.

Finally, are you better off making a 10% ROI on 14/1 shots, than making 10% ROI on odds on favourites? Financially no, but it might be a boost for the ego.

Ruinart

too right. I feel the overwhelming desire to put my boot through the television screen when I hear Derek Thompson say (often in a 20 runner race) -"Hey, you know what? 16-1 could be great each way value!!"

I honestly don't know the stats, but I've heard it said there's better value backing two or three to win rather than each-way. Obviously this could be disproved but there are some situations where I'm sure this is correct.

YAIYAM

Value is only a personal opinion on any given price and can be any price
if someone thinks that odds on a specific betting propositon should be at a certain price i.e 3/1 then if you can get 4/1 on this persific bet you have got value if however the best price you can get is only 2/1 then you have not got value to what you thought the price should be and in this case the sensible thing would be to not back at that 2/1 as if you did you are effectively saying you will back things at any price and this is one of the worst things you can do in betting purposes, this should and could work to any price be it 1/4 or 20/1.
You also have the other value in betting purposes now where in any case if a horse is 8/11 to win but another is 8/11 to get a place the value is to always go with the place 8/11 rather than the win for obvious reasons.
My personal opinion on saying altough i like the favourite i am not going to back it but find some E/W value is not the way to bet either as if you think the favourite has the best chance but is to short you do not bet in the race and wait until one comes along at the right price as it is not as if there is not enough races to do that and it always sounds to me you are actually betting in that specific race just because you want to

beathollow92

Yaiyam I totally agree with you there.

If you really think a horse will win either back it, or dont back anything if you think it is too short. It does seem to be trendy to look for each way value.

falbrav4ever

I tried to contextualise the value argument by citing the best "value" i have ever seen which was an odds-on shot.

I absolutely subscribe to the view about each way betting and chucking away the win stake as somebody has already raised in terms of 20-1 placed being a 6/4 pay out.

I know that a few people on this board backed Slim Pickings each way ante-post for the Grand National at 100-1 and did very well for themselves out of it.

However, I would dispute any claims that this is a good example of a value bet...

...if you back any horse antepost and it doesn't run then obviously you lose.

If you back horses regularly antepost and don't get a non runner than you are bloody lucky.

If therefore you want to claim an antepost bet that you draw on as being value, you need to net out the effect of any non-runner losses that you've had as well as the bets that have run but not actually won.

I can think of loads of occasions where I've backed horses antepost and not even fancied them when the race in question actually comes around.

At 100-1 antepost you're obviously not guaranteed a run and you couldn't have realistically known that the ground was going to be suitable on the big day. I can see that it must have been really exciting to have backed a 33-1 shot at 100-1, known on the day that the ground was OK and see it go so close to winning, but the cold fact is that the pay out was that of a 12-1 shot. You see plenty of 12-1 shots go in every Saturday when you can bet with a much greater degree of assurance as to what conditions are like. You also stand to get your money back if your selection doesn't line up.

I'm trying to get out of the habit of backing horses antepost full stop and personally tend not to back horses each way unless they are at least 25-1.

But the cliche that they come out with on TV that annoys me the most is when they say a 9-2 shot is "value" - for no apparent reason other than 9-2 is a bigger price than 7/4 - before the race starts and then they say afterwards that it rewarded the each way support when it comes third.

I hope I never make a habit of getting "rewarded" by picking up less money than I put down in the first place!

Falbrav

YAIYAM

I think E/W betting is a thing of the past and cannot see how on any occasions it is worth going 50/50 on a horse even for those ones that used to be described as "bets to nothing" as the 50/50 would get you back what you put on where as something like a 35/65 would give you that chance of some profit be it on Betfair or the bookmakers who offer place prices.
I do think however that the 100% place bets i do are not really the best way to go and will probably at sometime stop doing them as even 10% on the win does not cut the place down that much. I have had a couple come in on the win when going 100% place but not many and am sure in the long run it evens it self out although i did do a player for Top 10 recently on the Golf and he actually won @ 100/1 and i had nothing on the win and a 10/90 would have obviously been alot better but this is down to personally how well you can take it to wether you change it or not

Hampton

Tagalie

jennywales

As I only punt for fun, and in very small amounts, I don't suppose my "methods for success" will be of much interest

However, I think anyone who punts, even if only twice a year on the Derby asnd Grand National, should first of all ask themselves what "success" means to them? There are probably two basic answers (with variations) to that - making money or having fun. In the latter case, you have to have good self-awareness for the moment when it stops being fun and becomes a burden - in which case you are not succeeding and should have a break or give up altogether!

In the former case, it very much depends, again, on why you want to make money? To cover your bets and continue to punt without major damage to your existing income? To generate a second (first) income? In fact, on analysis, any punting other than the punting intended to generate income, is being done for fun anyway (however you define fun) and you may or may not want to adopt new, different or additional methods.

If the MAIN REASON you bet is to make money (profit), then there are only four definite factors I would think are important:

a. Stick to what you know. If it's NH, stick to that. Flat, stick to that. If it's maidens, handicaps, listed, whatever, STICK TO THOSE RACES AND THOSE RACES ONLY. There is far too much variation in race conditions, going, draw, weights, ratings and so on to make it viable in economic terms to punt on a lot of different types of races. Make one (or perhaps two) types your speciality. Eliminate the stuff you don't know about or have a feeling for. Study a lot. Read, watch, go racing. Invest in the From Book and a few good guides. But don't follow them slavishly. Use them to increase your own knowledge.

b. Keep rigidly to one type of bet (win only, place only for example). Avoid wasting money on complicated bets (L15s, Yankees, the Placepot). That money is your bank, and if you waste it it won't come back to you.

c. Don't, ever, ever, bet on impulse (I do that far too often myself, but then I'm not looking to make a profit!)

d. Don't bet if you are not certain that the bet is a good one - far too much money is lost by people saying "Well, I quite fancy that so I'll have a bit on". If you're certain the bet is good (and it doesn't matter if it's 8/11 or 25/1) then bet. If you're not certain don't bother.

From the above, as far as my own punting is concerned, I have learned the following.

a. Stick to NH, and avoid sellers, maidens and beginners' chases. Novice handicap hurdles are a good medium given patience, restraint and knowledge. I follow hunter chasing, so when that is on I do reasonably well

b. Place only (occasional win bet, see below)

c. Stop saying "I think I'll have a L15 today just for fun"

d. I am far too prone to back a horse because I have seen it run before, I like the trainer/jockey combination and so on. This is not enough! Is the animal in fact, in my own mind, certain to get a place (or win)? If so, back it. If not, don't

This all goes out the window when actually at the track, where a bet on every race is part of the day's entertainment. But note which races you would have swerved were you at home in front of the PC....

Make notes. If you are betting to cover your costs and perhaps make a bit, then you can be more flexible. But not much! Don't forget, the odds are stacked against you (literally) and the more restraint you can show the better you will do.

david-uk

It matters more when there's more on it. So unless I am having a decent bet I dont tend to worry so there is no pressure, that way you can be more relaxed about your selection. Group 1 races 8 runners or less over 1 mile and above, these are the races to win money at. This is where I do the best.

Mansfield Toon

kickingkyle

Bet what you feel comfortable doing. Iv seen methods tryed them and they dont work for me. What works for me is checking results seing what horses run well, jockeys/trainers in form. Go on the going and thats about the lot.

I like to do win/place place only bets and multiples. Im also in profit for the year and can say i have never spent more than 30mins on a race. I like to watch racing, i like to bet but more importantly i like to win money and spend it enjoying myself!

alansouthcoast

One E/w bet bookmakers dont like is when the favourite is a short price and the second Fav is around 5/1 or better, with only 8 or 9 runners. Over a season doing the second favourites E/w will show a profit.

Also you can do place only bets on the Tote. Although you are restricted to what ever it pays out as you cant take a price.

falbrav4ever

Good point and well made, Alan.

We all know that if a horse is long odds on in an 8-runner field you haven't got a prayer of getting a bet on each way at the best price on course - in fact, you'd be lucky to get on e/w at all.

I try and exploit the fact that the shows in the shops reflect the price on the course, which, in turn, largely follows the win market on Betfair.

Getting on e/w in a shop is effectively a concession in this scenario.

We all need concessions however successful we claim to be!

Falbrav

lochsong

Hampton

The point about have a notebook, mental or on paper, is useful.

If you have backed a horse who you feel runs well without winning jot it down for a later race.

I have put up horse in the Notebooks on here of horses who I have either picked or noted & it's been a sucess with horse winning at nice prices soon after I jotted them down.

But be careful, if after say two or three races they don't seem to continue their progress leave them alone.

I used to buy the Weekender & go through the results & look out for horses who ran well without winning & it kind of paid, but ended up with too many horse too look out for, so I now stick to only a few.

Mansfield Toon

You can do all the studying etc you want, but of the horse isnt going to win, you've done your dough.

Nothing better than stable info or trainers comments to get a gamble landed.

Hampton

I wouldn't trust the trainers comments that are printed in the RP & most of them are not really forth coming about their horses chances. They tend to use the words 'will go close' rather alot!

Yes, stable info is the main way a gamble is landed.

Going back to value, would anyone agree that by taking a early price & your horse winning at a much shorter price is getting value?

falbrav4ever

RightJudgeIam

[quote="Mansfield Toon"]You can do all the studying etc you want, but of the horse isnt going to win, you've done your dough.

Toon, no offence meant to you personally it's just that your comment triggered a point which I wanted to raise.

This 'one race at a time' point of view that I have heard many, many times is mathematically flawed

If you are a regular bettor then you must accept that each and every bet you place is part of a sequence of many bets. If you can understand and absorb the implications of this then you can find ways to improve your success...

but only if you have recorded and understood what actually happened in terms of results (profits/losses) over that sequence. Mark Coton explains the maths behind this principle in Value Betting which is an essential read.

And of course we never really know whether a horse is going to win before the race starts...we can only estimate the chance of it winning and decide whether or not to bet based on the odds available.

David-UK

Firstly, I'm not advocating anyone follows me, my selections or methods I'm simply attempting to stimulate others and learn what I can myself too.

Secondly, I don't post all my bets on this forum (far from it) so judging my success/failure based on that is pointless.

cre8flow

each artist structures the words of their sentences,their brush strokes differently

to follow is to dull greatness

to absorb and integrate is another story

its a tricky tightrope to walk on but it must be attempted

cre8flow

i think underneath it all

you must not just believe but KNOW that you are the best

its a healthy attitude to have and hold but not to announce to the crowd

rather when you encounter another handicapper you must be able to say what can i learn from you sir

hemingway used to say that he read the bad books in order to write well

but he used to study the great painters and writers-without mark twain where would hemingway have been????????????????

Simon

Only just discovered this thread, having seen it referenced elsewhere on the forum. It's bloody brilliant and is a great advertisement for what a good forum should be all about.

alansouthcoast

david-uk

Alan,

I noticed that with Fahey, one of the two he did not mention wanted the ground more than any of his other horses yet he neglected to say anything, I am pretty sure that stable love a punt. Maybe Fahey just did not want to tell everyone?

I think they interviewed Stoute today and he said that the first winner at Ascot was his best chance today.

alansouthcoast

David i think you are right. My comment though was just a response to Toons comments about trainers info. I am sure sometimes that maybe while not lying, the dont actually give you the whole picture as they want a punt themselves