Swagger
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Worst Antepost Bet of ALL TIMECOOLDINE to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup @ 8/1 
HAHHAHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHhHHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAAHHAAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAAHAHHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHAHAHA 
ABSOULUTELY NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO CHANCE (who won the worst RSA Chase of all life time).
Fair play to the bookies. They will have realed in numroues MUGS to back this dog SMASHED by the average Gary.
If this horse wins the Cheltenham Gold Cup then I will have no option but to never bet again. How such a donkey can win the Blue Ribbon would be beyond realism even on a high.
NO CHANCE (IT'S NOT A DONKEY DERBY) 
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Swagger
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NO CHANCE 
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Swagger
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Lets start a laughing thread - those who know their national hunt horse racing will post on here. Those who don't will sit on the fence (as usual).
Shame.
Lets name and shame.
Cooldine - DOG
Kangoaroo Court - Horse to watch out for (obvious) but classy.
Regards.
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Swagger
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Another little thread...Cooldine
I actually feel physically sick posting this but I hope it saves people money: -
This donkey will show its true worth this season when it matters at Cheltenham..but he's trained by Willie Mullins...
DONKEY
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Swagger
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Swagger
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Free Money.
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Machiavellian
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YOU'LL BE BANNED QUICKER THAN STEVEN BIKO WITH A ASSAULT WEAPON
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alansouthcoast
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Lager louts invade forum.... 
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Machiavellian
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I'm not intoxicated; I'm currently writing a paper on Harold Macmillan.
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dogsaver
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would have thought on this forum kasbah bliss (allthough i did not back it)
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Swagger
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Lets see who is laughing after the Cheltenham Gold Cup. It may win a few donkey donkey derbys in Ireland but come on, even Jimmy Tarbuck has his day in a working mans club in Runcorn - it's like believing Beethoven will win the 2000 Guineas.
Lager Lout - show some respect dear Watson. This donkey/shire-horse has NO CHANCE in the GOLD Cup.
Regards.
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Swagger
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| dogsaver wrote: | | would have thought on this forum kasbah bliss (allthough i did not back it) |
People love their boats over obstacles, especially Geordie.
Kasbah Bliss probably lost by a short head to next seasons Ascot Gold Cup winner. People who don't rate Kasbah Bliss arguably suffer from some from of special needs.
People who go on about about Big Bucks, he is a horse with an exceptional engine who can't jump - lets face facts, look at the state of him in any race over hurdles - his engine saw him home in the World Hurdle. If he ran against Kasbah Bliss around Aintree over three miles or less he would do well to find his arsehole 
Regards.
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Machiavellian
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Steinbeck wins the Guineas - FACT
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Owl of Minerva
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| dogsaver wrote: | | would have thought on this forum kasbah bliss (allthough i did not back it) |
Do you mean best antepost bet? Put up by forumites at 8/1-7/2 and went off at odds on. Superb antepiost bet (even though I myself chose not to lay off)
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geordie_racer
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| Swagger wrote: | | dogsaver wrote: | | would have thought on this forum kasbah bliss (allthough i did not back it) |
People love their boats over obstacles, especially Geordie.
Kasbah Bliss probably lost by a short head to next seasons Ascot Gold Cup winner. People who don't rate Kasbah Bliss arguably suffer from some from of special needs.
People who go on about about Big Bucks, he is a horse with an exceptional engine who can't jump - lets face facts, look at the state of him in any race over hurdles - his engine saw him home in the World Hurdle. If he ran against Kasbah Bliss around Aintree over three miles or less he would do well to find his arsehole
Regards. |
1 kasbah bliss was a good ante-post bet at 3/1+ IF and only if you were always going to lay it off
2 his losing in a flat race by a short head to a possible future winner of the ascot gold cup in no way justifies backing a horse for a 3m hurdle when he finishesd 20 lenghs behind the winner and was beaten 2 out
3 big bucks lasted the trip, he didnt.
4 the kasbah bliss thread went the way it did because some of us did not believe that he couldnt be beaten, ws a savings fund, the rest may as well not turn up etc. a very competent 2 1/2 to 3 mile hurdler who wasnt quite good enough for the festival but iwas also highly competitive at g2/3 level on the flat. thats all.
worst a-p bet of all time? anything less than 5/1 for the festival before end january because that sould be the odds to get there
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glennie1970
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has Swagger had his account hacked - it certainly doesn't sound like him.
ive backed Snap Tie each way for the Arkle before he ran last time and they left the price the same afterwards LOL
I can certainly pick em 
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Owl of Minerva
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| geordie_racer wrote: |
1 kasbah bliss was a good ante-post bet at 3/1+ IF and only if you were always going to lay it off
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3/1 was a good bet whether you layed off or not. If you back odds on shots at 3/1 you will do OK
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accajacca
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| geordie_racer wrote: |
worst a-p bet of all time? anything less than 5/1 for the festival before end january because that sould be the odds to get there |
can i have 9/2 on Master Minded please?
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accajacca
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| Owl of Minerva wrote: | | geordie_racer wrote: |
1 kasbah bliss was a good ante-post bet at 3/1+ IF and only if you were always going to lay it off
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3/1 was a good bet whether you layed off or not. If you back odds on shots at 3/1 you will do OK |
exactly right. how people fail to grasp this is beyond me.
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accajacca
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also, i believe i have a £100 match bet where i have Kauto Star against Cooldine for the Gold Cup. was it Jay?
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Andy
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| glennie1970 wrote: | has Swagger had his account hacked - it certainly doesn't sound like him.
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That's what I thought as I was reading through. Amusing as this outburst is, i've met Swagger a few times and would be suprised if it came from him.
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Owl of Minerva
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I'm also not sure it is him. However there are a few Swagger traits in there:
He often talks about bad value horses that have no chance of winning, he has said before he won't bet again if a particular horse wins, and of course the use of the term 'Regards'
So if it isn't Swagger, it's certainly someone that knows Swagger's posting style well
I'm sure he'll explain all in due course!
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geordie_racer
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| Owl of Minerva wrote: | | geordie_racer wrote: |
1 kasbah bliss was a good ante-post bet at 3/1+ IF and only if you were always going to lay it off
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3/1 was a good bet whether you layed off or not. If you back odds on shots at 3/1 you will do OK |
no it wasnt because
[a] you can't guarantee your 3/1 bets will be odds on come the day (he certainly would not have been odds onif Inglis Drever had been sound) and
[b] if you didnt lay it off you lost all your money
I'm old fashioened, I think teh object is to pick a winner. This wasnt one, irrespective of the odds it went off at.
So it was only sensible / a good bet if you at least layed it and recovered your stake and had a free bet.
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Owl of Minerva
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| geordie_racer wrote: | | Owl of Minerva wrote: | | geordie_racer wrote: |
1 kasbah bliss was a good ante-post bet at 3/1+ IF and only if you were always going to lay it off
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3/1 was a good bet whether you layed off or not. If you back odds on shots at 3/1 you will do OK |
no it wasnt because
[a] you can't guarantee your 3/1 bets will be odds on come the day (he certainly would not have been odds onif Inglis Drever had been sound) and
[b] if you didnt lay it off you lost all your money
I'm old fashioened, I think teh object is to pick a winner. This wasnt one, irrespective of the odds it went off at.
So it was only sensible / a good bet if you at least layed it and recovered your stake and had a free bet. |
Wrong
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geordie_racer
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| Owl of Minerva wrote: | | geordie_racer wrote: | | Owl of Minerva wrote: | | geordie_racer wrote: |
1 kasbah bliss was a good ante-post bet at 3/1+ IF and only if you were always going to lay it off
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3/1 was a good bet whether you layed off or not. If you back odds on shots at 3/1 you will do OK |
no it wasnt because
[a] you can't guarantee your 3/1 bets will be odds on come the day (he certainly would not have been odds onif Inglis Drever had been sound) and
[b] if you didnt lay it off you lost all your money
I'm old fashioened, I think teh object is to pick a winner. This wasnt one, irrespective of the odds it went off at.
So it was only sensible / a good bet if you at least layed it and recovered your stake and had a free bet. |
Wrong |
no right
and no returns
i love it when the debate gets intelligent
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accajacca
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| geordie_racer wrote: | | Owl of Minerva wrote: | | geordie_racer wrote: |
1 kasbah bliss was a good ante-post bet at 3/1+ IF and only if you were always going to lay it off
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3/1 was a good bet whether you layed off or not. If you back odds on shots at 3/1 you will do OK |
no it wasnt because
[a] you can't guarantee your 3/1 bets will be odds on come the day (he certainly would not have been odds onif Inglis Drever had been sound) and
[b] if you didnt lay it off you lost all your money
I'm old fashioened, I think teh object is to pick a winner. This wasnt one, irrespective of the odds it went off at.
So it was only sensible / a good bet if you at least layed it and recovered your stake and had a free bet. |
this is completely flawed.
you and i are standing at a roullette table and i said to you geordie, i will for one spin only give you 8/1 on reds coming in. you bet, knowing the odds are way too big. it comes in black, i win the bet and walk off with your money. who's the mug? obviously me.
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geordie_racer
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| accajacca wrote: |
this is completely flawed.
you and i are standing at a roullette table and i said to you geordie, i will for one spin only give you 8/1 on reds coming in. you bet, knowing the odds are way too big. it comes in black, i win the bet and walk off with your money. who's the mug? obviously me. |
this is a hopeless analogy and you know it
the odds of red are 18/37 and are the same each time the ball is spun. So offering 8/1 is of course a mug offer and if you offered it we would put 10 on red, 15 on black and 1 on zero, thus guaranteeing a profit
can I quote from one of the KB savings fund bankers??
"In hindisght I probably should have layed off at evens But I took the view that the horse was a 1/2 shot and so why should i lay off at evens? But I guess that I should have layed him at that price anyway due to having him at ave odds of 7/2; and so should have traded the position even if I thought the price was a bit too big. But I didn't. Live and learn . . . ."
Now I agree with that; and if that had been done, and if people had said throughout that they would do that, there would not have been any debate about it
but the horse was unbeatable according to some, there was ridiculous over-optimism.
Lets pose you a question, though, acca
If you thought a horse had an even moey /odds-on shout in a race and a leading bookie was offering you 3/1 would you lay any of it off to ensure a profit, or not. And if not, and it lost, who is the mug?
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accajacca
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why would i lay an evens shot that i thought was a 1/2 shot (as owl did) - that would be a mug bet. if i thought it's true chance was evens, i was on at 3's and it was evens to lay, i probably would just to take profit, but over the course of time that part of the bet won't impact your P&L.
in gambling you can be certain of one thing - you are not going to win every time you bet.
however, if you're shrewd, and you back evens shots at 3/1+, you will win over the course of time.
if you are a mug and lay horses that you believe are 1/2 shots at evens, you will lose over the course of time.
one off events do not impact the validity of the above facts.
my analogy is perfectly valid. in the example i offered to lay you 8/1 about something you knew to be around evens.
with kasbah, the market laid 8/1 about a horse that owl/YY etc, knew to have a much better chance (i accept not "knew" in the unquestionable mathematical sense, but knew according to their analysis). the market subsequently caught up and realised they had mispriced the horse and it was gradually brougt down to evens. they had money on at 8/1 about an evens shot. win or lose this is fantastic punting, and the outcome of the race is irrelevent to this fact.
if you had laid me 8/1 KB on the day, the fact that it lost does not make you any less of a mug for doing so.
so, regardless of outcome, spending time backing horses or any other events at odds in excess of the TRUE probability means you are placing good bets - regardles of whether any specific bet comes good.
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geordie_racer
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ok thats fine
do your own thing on that...
I was never convinced that the horse was as good as people made out and his cheltenham record spoke for itself
however, if you were happy with the losses because you had the bookies licked, I ain't going to try and change your mind.
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Owl of Minerva
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Geordie there's no shame in admitting you're wrong. No one will think any less of you
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accajacca
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i backed the horse on the day at evens and lost - never happy to lose money, but happy to accept that if i get any more than 50% of the bets i strike at evens right i am a decent gambler.
i'm not bothered about kasbah bliss though. my point is simply that if you consistently back horses that go off at evens at 3/1 and bigger, you are a great gambler and will make money. if you're someone who deosn't realise that, you're not, and you probably won't.
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geordie_racer
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| accajacca wrote: | i backed the horse on the day at evens and lost - never happy to lose money, but happy to accept that if i get any more than 50% of the bets i strike at evens right i am a decent gambler.
i'm not bothered about kasbah bliss though. my point is simply that if you consistently back horses that go off at evens at 3/1 and bigger, you are a great gambler and will make money. if you're someone who deosn't realise that, you're not, and you probably don't. |
i can never be sure that any horse trading at 3/1 is going to go off even money 3 or more months later.
if you are, well done.
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accajacca
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| geordie_racer wrote: | | accajacca wrote: | i backed the horse on the day at evens and lost - never happy to lose money, but happy to accept that if i get any more than 50% of the bets i strike at evens right i am a decent gambler.
i'm not bothered about kasbah bliss though. my point is simply that if you consistently back horses that go off at evens at 3/1 and bigger, you are a great gambler and will make money. if you're someone who deosn't realise that, you're not, and you probably don't. |
i can never be sure that any horse trading at 3/1 is going to go off even money 3 or more months later.
if you are, well done. |
i'm not - i'm shit at horses. YY and Owl were though - and it did - so regardless of the fact that it lost, it was a good bet. QED.
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Machiavellian
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CQD CQD
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lochsong
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| Andy wrote: | | glennie1970 wrote: | has Swagger had his account hacked - it certainly doesn't sound like him.
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That's what I thought as I was reading through. Amusing as this outburst is, i've met Swagger a few times and would be suprised if it came from him. |
There's only one explanation.
Swagger has been to his first xmas do of the season.
That's what it's all about eh??
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YAIYAM
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a) The worst Antepost bet is on anything where the price you take is shorter than the one it goes off at on the day.
b) The best Antepost bets are where you take a price and it goes off shorter on the day.
If it wins or loses makes no difference and as a few have already said, If you do not understand this I am afraid you Just do not understand gambling to achieve a profit.
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BRETT
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| accajacca wrote: | | also, i believe i have a £100 match bet where i have Kauto Star against Cooldine for the Gold Cup. was it Jay? |
Believe that is me.
for what its worth and i know there is a thread on this horse,i would say the worst ante post bet is Dunguib @ 3/1.Never jumped a hurdle in public,no telling what other horses will improve for sticking 8 hurdles in front of them and no guarantee that he will get there in one piece(hurricane fly anyone?)he is an exciting prospect thats for sure but is there value in taking 3s at this point?personally i wouldnt lose any sleep if i missed the 3s and he went off shorter on the day.
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accajacca
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that's right, i'd forgotten about it until someone mentioned the horse. whatever anyone says you're onto a sure thing taking the other side of my horse racing bets so you in fact have the best antepost bet of all time
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geordie_racer
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| YAIYAM wrote: | a) The worst Antepost bet is on anything where the price you take is shorter than the one it goes off at on the day.
b) The best Antepost bets are where you take a price and it goes off shorter on the day.
If it wins or loses makes no difference and as a few have already said, If you do not understand this I am afraid you Just do not understand gambling to achieve a profit. |
i can never understand gambling to make a profit by backing losers
i have tried it many times and it just doesnt work.
last time i asked him, my bookie only paid out on winning bets
i suppose he just doesnt understand either.
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Owl of Minerva
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| geordie_racer wrote: | | YAIYAM wrote: | a) The worst Antepost bet is on anything where the price you take is shorter than the one it goes off at on the day.
b) The best Antepost bets are where you take a price and it goes off shorter on the day.
If it wins or loses makes no difference and as a few have already said, If you do not understand this I am afraid you Just do not understand gambling to achieve a profit. |
i can never understand gambling to make a profit by backing losers
i have tried it many times and it just doesnt work.
last time i asked him, my bookie only paid out on winning bets
i suppose he just doesnt understand either. |
Wrong
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YAIYAM
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| Owl of Minerva wrote: | | geordie_racer wrote: | | YAIYAM wrote: | a) The worst Antepost bet is on anything where the price you take is shorter than the one it goes off at on the day.
b) The best Antepost bets are where you take a price and it goes off shorter on the day.
If it wins or loses makes no difference and as a few have already said, If you do not understand this I am afraid you Just do not understand gambling to achieve a profit. |
i can never understand gambling to make a profit by backing losers
i have tried it many times and it just doesnt work.
last time i asked him, my bookie only paid out on winning bets
i suppose he just doesnt understand either. |
Wrong |
Exactly Owl.
We might as well sit here and bang our heads against our screens because geordie will never understand
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accajacca
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he does understand, he is pulling on your plonkers. try and enjoy it.
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geordie_racer
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| accajacca wrote: | | he does understand, he is pulling on your plonkers. try and enjoy it. |
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david-uk
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| BRETT wrote: | | accajacca wrote: | | also, i believe i have a £100 match bet where i have Kauto Star against Cooldine for the Gold Cup. was it Jay? |
Believe that is me.
for what its worth and i know there is a thread on this horse,i would say the worst ante post bet is Dunguib @ 3/1.Never jumped a hurdle in public,no telling what other horses will improve for sticking 8 hurdles in front of them and no guarantee that he will get there in one piece(hurricane fly anyone?)he is an exciting prospect thats for sure but is there value in taking 3s at this point?personally i wouldnt lose any sleep if i missed the 3s and he went off shorter on the day. |
FIRST OF ALL GREAT THREAD SWAGGER AND EXCELLENT FISHING!
Brett , I will match bet you the next 10 horses in the market against Dunguib, want a bet?? 3/1 is a good price, value IMO.
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Owl of Minerva
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| david-uk wrote: | | BRETT wrote: | | accajacca wrote: | | also, i believe i have a £100 match bet where i have Kauto Star against Cooldine for the Gold Cup. was it Jay? |
Believe that is me.
for what its worth and i know there is a thread on this horse,i would say the worst ante post bet is Dunguib @ 3/1.Never jumped a hurdle in public,no telling what other horses will improve for sticking 8 hurdles in front of them and no guarantee that he will get there in one piece(hurricane fly anyone?)he is an exciting prospect thats for sure but is there value in taking 3s at this point?personally i wouldnt lose any sleep if i missed the 3s and he went off shorter on the day. |
FIRST OF ALL GREAT THREAD SWAGGER AND EXCELLENT FISHING!
Brett , I will match bet you the next 10 horses in the market against Dunguib, want a bet?? 3/1 is a good price, value IMO. |
Dave I'll take that bet if you want?
edit: actually that's quite tricky as I've just looked and there isn't really enough of a market to name 10 horses 
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david-uk
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Owl, I will offer you the same bet as I have had with Timeform..
I will have Dunguib to finish first or second in the SNH and you can have the rest of the field. So if Dunguib finishes first or second I win, if he does not then you do, or of course he is a NON runner then its a no bet.
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Owl of Minerva
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| david-uk wrote: | Owl, I will offer you the same bet as I have had with Timeform..
I will have Dunguib to finish first or second in the SNH and you can have the rest of the field. So if Dunguib finishes first or second I win, if he does not then you do, or of course he is a NON runner then its a no bet. |
No I'll leave that cheers Dave - I do think he'll probably win. But 10 horses sounded good
I backed him in the bumper this year - never seen anything like it; still pulling his riders arms out with 3f to run and then absolutely shoots clear. Let's hope he's really special over hurdles
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BRETT
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| david-uk wrote: | | BRETT wrote: | | accajacca wrote: | | also, i believe i have a £100 match bet where i have Kauto Star against Cooldine for the Gold Cup. was it Jay? |
Believe that is me.
for what its worth and i know there is a thread on this horse,i would say the worst ante post bet is Dunguib @ 3/1.Never jumped a hurdle in public,no telling what other horses will improve for sticking 8 hurdles in front of them and no guarantee that he will get there in one piece(hurricane fly anyone?)he is an exciting prospect thats for sure but is there value in taking 3s at this point?personally i wouldnt lose any sleep if i missed the 3s and he went off shorter on the day. |
FIRST OF ALL GREAT THREAD SWAGGER AND EXCELLENT FISHING!
Brett , I will match bet you the next 10 horses in the market against Dunguib, want a bet?? 3/1 is a good price, value IMO. |
Not going to take you up on that. my point is will he be so much shorter on the day that taking 3/1 now 6 months before the race is the right play?
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lochsong
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| david-uk wrote: | Owl, I will offer you the same bet as I have had with Timeform..
I will have Dunguib to finish first or second in the SNH and you can have the rest of the field. So if Dunguib finishes first or second I win, if he does not then you do, or of course he is a NON runner then its a no bet. |
I'll take you up on that Dave. £100
But he has to win. No second place.
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david-uk
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| lochsong wrote: | | david-uk wrote: | Owl, I will offer you the same bet as I have had with Timeform..
I will have Dunguib to finish first or second in the SNH and you can have the rest of the field. So if Dunguib finishes first or second I win, if he does not then you do, or of course he is a NON runner then its a no bet. |
I'll take you up on that Dave. £100
But he has to win. No second place. |
First or second as I said and yo can everything else in the race.
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