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No Rowan, I was not talking about horses beaten in the Gold Cup ... there is definitely a stat about the number of horses that placed in the previous years' Gold Cup who run the next year and the fact that none of them have won (or something like that)
where's Skanky when you need him? _________________ RJI
All in all, that's partly why I think it's there for the taking for Exotic Dancer.
Falbrav
Thanks - that's useful.
I'm not sure how you can have ED when the stats are as strongly against him as any of last year's contestants?
ED shouldn't even have run last year - given interrupted prep - and the fact that he was beaten so far out meant he didn't have as hard a race as any of the front three. _________________
"The gods only laugh when you ask them for money" (old Japanese saying). Never bet more than you can afford to lose!
Grim, but didn't the Fellow die at Canal Turn at Aintree?
Oh - and no, he didn't. He had a bad fall in the National I think the same year as he won the Gold Cup but he raced until 1995. Spent his retirement with the likes of Trainglot and Sybellin and died last August, a couple of months before Jodami.
I don't have a calculator but that would pay about 43 quid for a place treble, so about 21-1 if you consider the win stake chucked away and factor it into the total bet.
Of course, you have the dream treble thrown in at over 1000-1 for nothing.
Falbrav
Falbrav I have to say this, why on earth would you back Imperial Commander in a grade one race as my personal opinion is his price has to be the biggest Joke of the festival. This is a horse that won a handicap off 139 and must have finished 100L adrift in its first attempt in graded company wether it stayed or not makes no difference.
There has to be at least 4/5 other horses that are going to line up in the Ryan Air that are genuine graded chasers, they don't have the quality to beat VPU but the have it to beat a 139 hcp winner.
YY,
It's the classic thing about comparing NTD's runners when they're in form with them when they're out of form. Also IC Cheltenham form vs IC Kempton form - exactly the same as Exotic Dancer.
2m 5F at Cheltenham is ideal for IC and that is so not true for many others in the race - he could also improve significantly.
I actually think Gwanako is much better value but I'm certain that IC will finish in the three.
Falbrav
It may be his Ideal course as he has won on it a few times the best being last time as said on 139 and he may also Improve significantly but backing a 2nd fav who has to Improve against horses who do not have to improve and are twice the price seems a bit backward to me. I could understand it If IC was twice the price of the others then It may be chancing the improvement but you would be taking about 6/4 for the horse to place, even something like Schlindlers Hunt who was well beaten In the QMCC last year looks better value than IC or someone suggested Scotsirish (Owl I think) this is a proven graded performer all be it ground dependent but i would put him in front of IC everytime _________________ Forest are Treemendous
No Rowan, I was not talking about horses beaten in the Gold Cup ... there is definitely a stat about the number of horses that placed in the previous years' Gold Cup who run the next year and the fact that none of them have won (or something like that)
where's Skanky when you need him?
Judge, I thought that's what "no horse placed in the Gold Cup has won 12 months later since Bregawn" meant?
No Rowan, I was not talking about horses beaten in the Gold Cup ... there is definitely a stat about the number of horses that placed in the previous years' Gold Cup who run the next year and the fact that none of them have won (or something like that)
where's Skanky when you need him?
Judge - I think no horse has ever won the Gold Cup, lost the following year and then gone on to regain it. (I stand to be corrected but I think that's correct). This stat is against Kauto Star.
No Rowan, I was not talking about horses beaten in the Gold Cup ... there is definitely a stat about the number of horses that placed in the previous years' Gold Cup who run the next year and the fact that none of them have won (or something like that)
where's Skanky when you need him?
Judge, I thought that's what "no horse placed in the Gold Cup has won 12 months later since Bregawn" meant?
THAT'S IT!! I hadn't read that for a long time. Did someone post it here recently?
Anyway, it is a powerful stat and makes you think KS and NC are bad value as 1st and 2nd favs. I might just lay them both (have got 10/1 NC so can lay plenty at 5/1 and therfore be able to lay KS too)
I wont care anyway when Kasbah wins on thursday _________________ RJI
I don't have a calculator but that would pay about 43 quid for a place treble, so about 21-1 if you consider the win stake chucked away and factor it into the total bet.
Of course, you have the dream treble thrown in at over 1000-1 for nothing.
Falbrav
Falbrav I have to say this, why on earth would you back Imperial Commander in a grade one race as my personal opinion is his price has to be the biggest Joke of the festival. This is a horse that won a handicap off 139 and must have finished 100L adrift in its first attempt in graded company wether it stayed or not makes no difference.
There has to be at least 4/5 other horses that are going to line up in the Ryan Air that are genuine graded chasers, they don't have the quality to beat VPU but the have it to beat a 139 hcp winner.
Im with Falbrav. All three horses mentioned there ive backed each way and i too am confident with Exotic Dancer. Hills had 4/1 backable each way without the nicholls runners up until a day or so ago and that must have been the best ew to nothing i have seen for ages.
Imperial Commander is at least a 165 horse imo. The king George run can be scrapped. Watch the race again. See how he travelled untill switching off. THe stable at the time had a bug. Not even identified till early january. Only rectified then and only now just coming back into form by the looks of things (whether soon engouh for the festival im not sure but some very fresh horses about when form does return).
Read the threads on the betfair antepost forum by one of the horses owners and they are pretty confident the horse is at the very least something a 165 horse.
I dont see any reason to disbelieve them myslef even though you cant always listen to owners and trainers. I agree with them though and its my opinion the horse can run to a rating of 170+ if over the stable bug and in tip top shape.
The stats and trends in the gold cup this year seem to rule out every runner and yet something has to win so i think you have to read bwetween the lines on this one. Im confident of ED as an EW bet but i fear Kauto and of course he can do it. Ground in his favour and a run below his best will still probably be enough to win it this year. A rating run of 174 will be enough imo althouth i think it will be a close finish between 2/3 runners. I have it between ED, kauto and Barbers.
The champion hurlde looks like a lottery and id have to side with Osana and Katchit ew at this moment with the likely ground.
Kasbah yes agree with all said re him on bullish threads. Got to be the festivals banker ? with punchestowns and bb following home in either order!
No Rowan, I was not talking about horses beaten in the Gold Cup ... there is definitely a stat about the number of horses that placed in the previous years' Gold Cup who run the next year and the fact that none of them have won (or something like that)
where's Skanky when you need him?
Judge, I thought that's what "no horse placed in the Gold Cup has won 12 months later since Bregawn" meant?
THAT'S IT!! I hadn't read that for a long time. Did someone post it here recently?
I did yer girt eejit! It was at the bottom of the post you were (I think) replying to about horses beaten on merit!!!!
No Rowan, I was not talking about horses beaten in the Gold Cup ... there is definitely a stat about the number of horses that placed in the previous years' Gold Cup who run the next year and the fact that none of them have won (or something like that)
where's Skanky when you need him?
Judge, I thought that's what "no horse placed in the Gold Cup has won 12 months later since Bregawn" meant?
THAT'S IT!! I hadn't read that for a long time. Did someone post it here recently?
Anyway, it is a powerful stat and makes you think KS and NC are bad value as 1st and 2nd favs. I might just lay them both (have got 10/1 NC so can lay plenty at 5/1 and therfore be able to lay KS too)
I wont care anyway when Kasbah wins on thursday
the closest is the fellow
2nd in 92
4th in 93
won in 94 _________________ Geordie_R
"A should of known there mum was buying banana's"
All in all, that's partly why I think it's there for the taking for Exotic Dancer.
Falbrav
Thanks - that's useful.
I'm not sure how you can have ED when the stats are as strongly against him as any of last year's contestants?
ED shouldn't even have run last year - given interrupted prep - and the fact that he was beaten so far out meant he didn't have as hard a race as any of the front three.
I don't think he had an easier race except maybe over the last half mile or so, he was making mistakes and chasing hard for most of the way. McCoy doesn't do "easy rides" on any horse!
You could equally say Kauto didn't have an ideal prep but he managed a better effort in defeat than he had done in victory, particularly given KS doesn't seem suited by Cheltenham or the trip. Both KS ans NC seem to be running near to their best this year so they should still have the beating of ED.
Still, as has been said, virtually everything is ruled out by one stat or another this year. I decided to stick a pin in the entries and that means my e/w bet is going to be Roll Along!
Imperial Commander is at least a 165 horse imo. The king George run can be scrapped. Watch the race again. See how he travelled untill switching off. THe stable at the time had a bug. Not even identified till early january. Only rectified then and only now just coming back into form by the looks of things (whether soon engouh for the festival im not sure but some very fresh horses about when form does return).
Read the threads on the betfair antepost forum by one of the horses owners and they are pretty confident the horse is at the very least something a 165 horse.
I dont see any reason to disbelieve them myslef even though you cant always listen to owners and trainers. I agree with them though and its my opinion the horse can run to a rating of 170+ if over the stable bug and in tip top shape.
I am not saying the horse might not be good enough what I am saying is on all known form and what this horse has actually achieved compared to at least 4 or 5 of the other horses he should not be the price he is, maybe this has come about from the owner being bullish.
He might well be a 165 horse but he has never put in a performance of above 145-150 so to bet approx 1/2 for him to be placed Just does not seem right. _________________ Forest are Treemendous
All in all, that's partly why I think it's there for the taking for Exotic Dancer.
Falbrav
Thanks - that's useful.
I'm not sure how you can have ED when the stats are as strongly against him as any of last year's contestants?
ED shouldn't even have run last year - given interrupted prep - and the fact that he was beaten so far out meant he didn't have as hard a race as any of the front three.
I don't think he had an easier race except maybe over the last half mile or so, he was making mistakes and chasing hard for most of the way. McCoy doesn't do "easy rides" on any horse!
You could equally say Kauto didn't have an ideal prep but he managed a better effort in defeat than he had done in victory, particularly given KS doesn't seem suited by Cheltenham or the trip. Both KS ans NC seem to be running near to their best this year so they should still have the beating of ED.
Still, as has been said, virtually everything is ruled out by one stat or another this year. I decided to stick a pin in the entries and that means my e/w bet is going to be Roll Along!
I think McCoy is a realist and he rides for Sir Robert Ogden.
He would have been told not to throw the kitchen sink at him in a futile cause - yet Ruby gave KS a typical McCoy ride...you're not beaten even though you are!
If you go back through Cheltenham races, there are horses that run out of their skin time and time again - yet they are never really ridden to win a race.
Theatreworld is a great example - alwats placed behind Istabraq but never asked to challenge.
Go Ballistic in the Gold Cup - nearly did win it in SMB's year but clearly enjoyed the ground and got to the front without being ridden.
Even horses like Land Afar who came down at the second-last when travelling supremely well two years in a row - there was nothing in his form to suggest that he should ever have been in contention two out.
Bellator was another that ran brilliantly in two CH's in a row - yet he was rated about 56 on the flat.
Contrast this with Truckers Tavern who virtually had his soul broken when attempting to chase Best Mate from a way out.
I don't think that Exotic Dancer had a hard race when he was second to KS. He poppod around and crept into the race.
I also don't believe that Sizing Europe had a hard race last year whereas Osana had as tough a race as they come with Sublimity cruising past him and Katchit coing to take him at the 11th hour.
I think we need to stop staring blindly at stats and add some qualitative interpretation.
Exotic Dancer will win the Gold Cup!
Falbrav
It's not about ability at Cheltenham - it's running style
_________________
"The gods only laugh when you ask them for money" (old Japanese saying). Never bet more than you can afford to lose!
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