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Imperial Commander is at least a 165 horse imo. The king George run can be scrapped. Watch the race again. See how he travelled untill switching off. THe stable at the time had a bug. Not even identified till early january. Only rectified then and only now just coming back into form by the looks of things (whether soon engouh for the festival im not sure but some very fresh horses about when form does return).
Read the threads on the betfair antepost forum by one of the horses owners and they are pretty confident the horse is at the very least something a 165 horse.
I dont see any reason to disbelieve them myslef even though you cant always listen to owners and trainers. I agree with them though and its my opinion the horse can run to a rating of 170+ if over the stable bug and in tip top shape.
I am not saying the horse might not be good enough what I am saying is on all known form and what this horse has actually achieved compared to at least 4 or 5 of the other horses he should not be the price he is, maybe this has come about from the owner being bullish.
He might well be a 165 horse but he has never put in a performance of above 145-150 so to bet approx 1/2 for him to be placed Just does not seem right.
I guess there are alot of people out there who see 13/2 and like me see it as an EW bet to nothing so see the price as value.
It definetly comes down to taking the view that Imperial Commander is unexposed and far better than his rating. Picking up and agreeing with the opions of those close to the horse and from your own interpretation of his two runs this season. The question is just how much better is he ? We will find out thursday assuming the horse gets a fair run being over any stable problems. He probably only has to beat one of Our Vic, Tidal bay and VPU to place so again i look at the price and see it as value as i do think he is in with a shout to win. Ill do some RFC with VPU as well
But you are right yayim i dont disagree with what you say re form in the book. On form in the book Imperial Commander odds are short. You look at the bare form in the book and see 13/2 and you see no value at all.
Then of course there is the stable form. Add that into the equation with the form and it is a horrible price.
It just depends on which way you look at the horse and the race as to whether you see value in the price.
Regards the stable form it looks like they are coming back but ill be watching NTD horses closely over the first couple of days. Ill probably still let the bet ride regardless though as i like the horse and he is one that owes me nothing after his PP win in November.
All in all, that's partly why I think it's there for the taking for Exotic Dancer.
Falbrav
Thanks - that's useful.
I'm not sure how you can have ED when the stats are as strongly against him as any of last year's contestants?
ED shouldn't even have run last year - given interrupted prep - and the fact that he was beaten so far out meant he didn't have as hard a race as any of the front three.
I don't think he had an easier race except maybe over the last half mile or so, he was making mistakes and chasing hard for most of the way. McCoy doesn't do "easy rides" on any horse!
You could equally say Kauto didn't have an ideal prep but he managed a better effort in defeat than he had done in victory, particularly given KS doesn't seem suited by Cheltenham or the trip. Both KS ans NC seem to be running near to their best this year so they should still have the beating of ED.
Still, as has been said, virtually everything is ruled out by one stat or another this year. I decided to stick a pin in the entries and that means my e/w bet is going to be Roll Along!
Hi rowen. Im actually of the opionion that Exotic Dancer could be at his best this season. I think he is primed to run his best race and put in a carreer best performance in the Gold Cup on Friday.
I dont think Neptune Collonges would have beaten him in the Lexus. My interpretation and view is that ED was cruising all over him and would have had him covered with comfort on the run to the line had NC stood up. I think ED will have NC covered.
Kauto i think is running below his best (granted not far off at kempton was impressive). I dont think we will see him setting carrer best performances anymore as many people wouldnt. Exotic Dancer was only beaten 2 lengths or so was it ? by kauto in 2007. If i think ED is at his best ever and Kauto is slightly below that of course i can see ED beating him for the first time ever. Kauto is of course the worthy fav for this race however and he could blow THAT stat. Take Denman out with the crazy show he put on last year and kauto wouldnt have that stat (no prev winner regaining after defeat) to overcome anyway (hed be on a 3 timer) so i dont think thats a stat to blindly follow without some closer inspection and interpretation.
The gold cup is a really really tricky race this year. There are so many questions where answers wont be known until after the race with the benefit of hindsight. Makes picking that winner almost a blind guess so maybe the pin sticking is not such a bad method ;)
The one thing im really confident of is that we wont see the winner putting in a 176+ performance rating. As previously stated i think the winner will get it at somewhere around 172-174 and with that i think there will be 2/3 at least very close to each other come the line. Wouldnt be surprised to see less than 5 lengths covering the first 4 or so home !
No Rowan, I was not talking about horses beaten in the Gold Cup ... there is definitely a stat about the number of horses that placed in the previous years' Gold Cup who run the next year and the fact that none of them have won (or something like that)
where's Skanky when you need him?
Bregawn won the year after he finished second. I am pretty sure placed horse do well the following year. Its the winners that dont seem to do so good. Incidentally Nicholls has said in todays Mail On Sunday he thinks last year may have finished Denman. He also said if he doesnt think Denman looks right during the week ahead, then he wont run !! _________________ If at first you dont succeed..then skydiving isnt for you
Binocular is the only won I dont fancy, I would much rather do osana E/w at the prices.
VPU is a worthy favourite.
Kasbah Bliss won so well at Haydock, I can only see Punchestown giving him a race.
Kauto was beaten by Denman and tactics last year, so despite the stats I wont write him off.
Baring a fall MM will hack up. Twist Magic could suprise a few people. _________________ If at first you dont succeed..then skydiving isnt for you
Bregawn won the year after he finished second. I am pretty sure placed horse do well the following year. Its the winners that dont seem to do so good. Incidentally Nicholls has said in todays Mail On Sunday he thinks last year may have finished Denman. He also said if he doesnt think Denman looks right during the week ahead, then he wont run !!
*bangs head on table*
I said Bregawn!
*bangs head on table*
Nicholls is driving me nuts. Yesterday in the RP he was saying "he looks as well and sharp as he did this time last year"!
Nicholls seems to be full of **** these days as he contradicts himself from one day to the next.
I thought Denman looked very light yesterday on channel 4 and not in good condition compared to last year.
You could equally say Kauto didn't have an ideal prep but he managed a better effort in defeat than he had done in victory, particularly given KS doesn't seem suited by Cheltenham or the trip. Both KS ans NC seem to be running near to their best this year so they should still have the beating of ED.
Hi rowen. Im actually of the opionion that Exotic Dancer could be at his best this season. I think he is primed to run his best race and put in a carreer best performance in the Gold Cup on Friday.
Still can't have him. He's a 9yo Frenchbred, and someone elsewhere has pointed to that as a reason KS can't win; he has almost as many miles on the clock as Kauto does.
I think they could finish in a heap but it depends what cuts out the running; I don't know if Madison will be sent on early to emulate Denman last year and take Kauto out of the race. That didn't seem to suit ED either.
People can make stats say whatever they like, and all stats are there to be broken. The reason I don't gamble large amounts is because on the whole I follow my heart (or stick pins!). And I'll be hugely disappointed if Exotic Dancer wins.
Nicholls seems to be full of **** these days as he contradicts himself from one day to the next.
I thought Denman looked very light yesterday on channel 4 and not in good condition compared to last year.
Spot on with your visual analysis of the horse; dspite the abuse some give me for this he was not muscled up last time out either; hollow behind his front legs is the best description I can give
put another way, if he was fit and at his racing weight then that performance was a worry.
On the big 3 in the betting for the GC Kauto is not an improving horse, Neptune looks as though he is, and enman s a worry. the stats are against Kauto and Neptune (although in Kauto's case i think they are 100% totally against him, with Neptune it's a "not since" stat which can therefore be treaed as being less decisive) so what is left?
some each-way value could I think be found in Barber's Shop, Alberta's Run and Air Force One. Calculating stakes could give you a definite positive return on any one of the 3 being placed, with a win a huge bonus.
Like others on here I am increasingly fed up with the contradcitory stuff coming out of Ditcheat especially re Denman. _________________ Geordie_R
"A should of known there mum was buying banana's"
Yes, and SL has a story about Findlay saying (on Five Live I think) that Denman worked well and he (Findlay) is behind him all the way or some such - which when I re-read it actually meant nothing either way.
I think at this stage there is no point in listening to trainers, owners, jockeys or pundits. Of any sort! The dice are ready to roll, and no information that is likely to be given out is going to help much apart from announcements about which races double-entered horses are going for and if a horse has been withdrawn.
I can't make up my mind whether the mixed messages from Ditcheat and vicinity are deliberate obfuscation, or simply reasonably honest people just not knowing. If the latter, it would be easier on themselves and on the betting public if they just kept quiet from now on. It's admirable that trainers and owners want to share information with punters/racing fans, but there comes a point where too much information = no information.
No Rowan, I was not talking about horses beaten in the Gold Cup ... there is definitely a stat about the number of horses that placed in the previous years' Gold Cup who run the next year and the fact that none of them have won (or something like that)
where's Skanky when you need him?
Bregawn won the year after he finished second. I am pretty sure placed horse do well the following year. Its the winners that dont seem to do so good. Incidentally Nicholls has said in todays Mail On Sunday he thinks last year may have finished Denman. He also said if he doesnt think Denman looks right during the week ahead, then he wont run !!
Sorry, this is just wrong... the placed horses from the year immediately preceeding have an absolutely terrible record. Wish I could be bothered to find out exactly what it is but can't be arsed to spend the time lol. _________________ RJI
No Rowan, I was not talking about horses beaten in the Gold Cup ... there is definitely a stat about the number of horses that placed in the previous years' Gold Cup who run the next year and the fact that none of them have won (or something like that)
where's Skanky when you need him?
Bregawn won the year after he finished second. I am pretty sure placed horse do well the following year. Its the winners that dont seem to do so good. Incidentally Nicholls has said in todays Mail On Sunday he thinks last year may have finished Denman. He also said if he doesnt think Denman looks right during the week ahead, then he wont run !!
Sorry, this is just wrong... the placed horses from the year immediately preceeding have an absolutely terrible record. Wish I could be bothered to find out exactly what it is but can't be arsed to spend the time lol.
Did you back NC just to trade then? Because I remember you being quite strong on him as having a good chance?
No Rowan, I was not talking about horses beaten in the Gold Cup ... there is definitely a stat about the number of horses that placed in the previous years' Gold Cup who run the next year and the fact that none of them have won (or something like that)
where's Skanky when you need him?
Bregawn won the year after he finished second. I am pretty sure placed horse do well the following year. Its the winners that dont seem to do so good. Incidentally Nicholls has said in todays Mail On Sunday he thinks last year may have finished Denman. He also said if he doesnt think Denman looks right during the week ahead, then he wont run !!
Sorry, this is just wrong... the placed horses from the year immediately preceeding have an absolutely terrible record. Wish I could be bothered to find out exactly what it is but can't be arsed to spend the time lol.
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