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Bet 16: Man U vs Man City - Man City WIN - £10 @ 6.0 (Waiting to be matched)
Essentially i have no idea how this match is going to go, and it might be that Man U put City firmly back in their box, but of the 2 teams City have played better football so far, look to have plenty of goals in them as well as plenty of confidence, and on that alone shouldn't be 6.0 against anyone - let alone a team struggling to get into top gear. so, a small bet on a price that i think is wrong.
Elsewhere Liverpool will probably beat West Ham, and Chelsea will probably beat Spurs, but the prices are about right, so my only other bet is a banker double:
Arsenal vs Wigan - Arsenal WIN
Villa vs Portsmouth - Villa WIN
Bet 16: Man U vs MAN CITY - £10 @ 6.0 – LOST = - £10
Multiple bet 19th September 09 WON = + £21.66
So;
Total P&L on Single bets after 16 bets: + £278.74
Total P&L on multiple bets: + £107.50
Total P&L: + £386.24
Running Analysis of single bets:
Average size so far: £31.87
Mean Average price so far: 2.65
Average price so far weighted by bet size: 2.22
Strike rate so far: 68.75%
Average return per bet so far: +54.66%
A fairly predictable set of results in the end and I suppose it would have been nice to get more teams involved in the multiple, but better safe than sorry.
Not a lot that I fancy in the carling cup, and the teams that I do are prohibitively short, but looking ahead to the weekend there are a few games and prices that catch the eye and I think it could be a good week. Fingers crossed…
There are a number of matches that I think are good value this week, and absolutely wouldn’t put anyone off backing Everton, Villa or Arsenal in decent singles specifically. However, when weeks like this come along that look predictable and where the prices aren’t so cramped as to be unplayable, I tend to think you have to try and take advantage (is this regrets over last week talking…?)
So, from the following;
Portsmouth vs EVERTON (1.97)
Blackburn vs VILLA (2.42)
Stoke vs MAN U (1.42)
Wigan vs CHELSEA (1.36)
Fulham vs ARSENAL (1.61) SUNDERLAND (1.78 ) vs Wolves
MAN CITY (1.47) vs West Ham
I have done £2 5-folds (£42), £2 6-folds (£14) and a £4 acca – total £60.
Additionally I have done a £30 4-fold of Everton, Chelsea, Man U & Arsenal at odds of 5.84.
So that’s £90 invested. WIll be watching all of the Saturday games in the pub for a friend's birthday so hoping for a great weekend.
Suffice to say i was not a happy bunny. My shortest priced selection capitulate by conceding a penalty and having their goalie sent off, and Villa - who looked to be coming into some sort of form - manage to lose to a 10 man Blackburn. So, 5 games out of 7 correct, biggest loss of the season. Infuriating.
So;
Total P&L on Single bets after 16 bets: + £278.74
Total P&L on multiple bets: + £33.76
Total P&L: + £312.50
Running Analysis of single bets:
Average size so far: £31.87
Mean Average price so far: 2.65
Average price so far weighted by bet size: 2.22
Strike rate so far: 68.75%
Average return per bet so far: +54.66%
was looking forward to turning things around after the international break after a couple of tough weeks beforehand, but frustratingly there are no standouts, so i will keep the powder dry until next week, when i'm sure there will be better chances.
Total P&L on Single bets after 18 bets: + £223.74
Total P&L on multiple bets: + £23.76
Total P&L: + £247.50
Running Analysis of single bets:
Average size so far: £31.38
Mean Average price so far: 2.62
Average price so far weighted by bet size: 2.23
Strike rate so far: 61.11%
Average return per bet so far: +39.6%
Bet 19: Wolves vs Aston Villa - Villa WIN - £25 @ 2.23
Bet 20: Birmingham vs Sunderland - Sunderland WIN - £25 @ 2.69
Bet 21: Burnley vs Wigan - Wigan WIN - £25 @ 3.1
Bet 22: Bolton vs Everton - Everton WIN - £25 @ 2.7
Bet 23: Liverpool vs Man U - Man U WIN - £25 @ 2.59
5 away wins please Carol...
Obviously there are the obligatory multiples to throw in on top...
Bet365 go;
Villa 11/10
Sunderland 6/4
Wigan 15/8
Everton 13/8
Man U 6/4
Tottenham 4/9
Arsenal 1/2
So...
5 x £2 6-folds, leaving out one of the original 5 selections each time but including Tottenham and Arsenal in all bets. £10.
Also, from the original 5 selections, £3 4-folds. £15.
All of which adds up to £150 punted on the week. Fingers crossed.
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